Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

pad199207 · 28-09-2019 10:11pm

Quite remarkable to be back up to Category 4 status given its location.

Who knows what other surprises this storm will give.

pauldry · 28-09-2019 10:12pm

As I said yesterday "and then it was gone"

A non event bar wind n rain in the South

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 10:16pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Quite remarkable to be back up to Category 4 status given its location.

Who knows what other surprises this storm will give.

It's still only at 23 N, just south of the latitude of Miami, and is closer to the Leeward Islands than the Azores.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 10:18pm

pauldry wrote: »

As I said yesterday "and then it was gone"

A non event bar wind n rain in the South

Don't get so triggered on a wobble

There is chopping and changing to come yet :cool:

JCX BXC · 28-09-2019 10:24pm

pauldry wrote: »

As I said yesterday "and then it was gone"

A non event bar wind n rain in the South

If one set of models doesn't make a storm, one set of models doesn't get rid of it either.

"Non event bar wind n rain in the South". To me this just looks like blatantly trying to wind people up

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 10:31pm

ICON still going with the fish storm keeping events well to our west.

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 10:32pm

Probablity chart (850 hPa WS > 50 knots) based on tonight's run:

Broadly similar to the last few runs. Many swings between each run, but the general trend remains broadly unchanged for now.

Edit.. does that even make sense?

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 10:34pm

You are always a beacon of sense among the madness here Oneiric :cool:

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 11:49pm

Looking at the charts this evening and absolutely no idea how this is going to pan out. It's like the deck was shuffled. No trends just uncertainty.

On to tomorrows charts.

Jpmarn · 28-09-2019 11:52pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ICON still going with the fish storm keeping events well to our west.

The 18z run from GFS on Netweather tv. Has the storm centre staying out to sea but close enough for strong gales along the west coast. Any serious surfers out there would be excited about this weather situation. It will cause high waves along the west coast.

pauldry · 29-09-2019 12:32am

Ive noticed with a lot of weather events whatever the initial models show before the chopping and changing the actual event pans out close to this.

This thing seems to be changing all the time. Maybe well know Wednesday night.

Initial models put it to our West

hatrickpatrick · 29-09-2019 12:41am

I'd be very wary of the NHC's intensity forecast given how unpredictable this storm has been, no one could have predicted it getting back up to Cat 4 today and the NHC certainly didn't. The current one could easily be correct, or we could wake up tomorrow to find that the whole table has been turned over once again.

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 1:07am

Edit: New special advisory issued due to further strengthening. Lorenzo is 12kts below Cat 5 now.

925
WTNT33 KNHC 290002
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on
Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday.
Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through
Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it
approaches the Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I'd be very wary of the NHC's intensity forecast given how unpredictable this storm has been, no one could have predicted it getting back up to Cat 4 today and the NHC certainly didn't. The current one could easily be correct, or we could wake up tomorrow to find that the whole table has been turned over once again.

I'm not sure that's strictly true. They mentioned yesterday that fluctuations in intensity would occur over the next few days.

The only thing that's changed is trajectory and even then, tentatively.

refusetolose · 29-09-2019 1:08am

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1178097567738974208

J6P · 29-09-2019 1:27am

Gonna be an interesting farming forecast from met eireann tomorrow as the model ensembles have this anywhere from biscay to iceland,

Seems to be the stronger it is the further west it goes and i'm not sure the models will have it nailed down until Monday so gonna be a tough one to call.

Worst case scenario for us is probably raking up the West coast.

refusetolose · 29-09-2019 1:50am

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1178099878511034368

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 2:58am

Lorenzo could conceivably hit Cat 5 status within the next 12 hours.

This mornings model runs will be important for Ireland later on. There is no clarity yet really on the track of the system in to the mid latitude and how it taps the jet stream.

hatrickpatrick · 29-09-2019 3:19am

What the actual f*ck :eek:

Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019


...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to
rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h).  This
increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at
11 pm AST (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 45.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 3:30am

Beast.

(not you, the storm)

hatrickpatrick · 29-09-2019 3:31am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Beast.

Why than-

(not you, the storm)

Bastard. :mad:

TTLF · 29-09-2019 3:34am

The fact it reached cat 5 in an hour... in the western Atlantic... Well! It was nice knowing you boys

:o

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 3:36am

The country needs a day off work :cool:

tenor.gif?itemid=7884268

TTLF · 29-09-2019 3:38am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The country needs a day off work :cool:

*insert DOES THIS MEAN NO SCHOOL? posts*

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 3:39am

Situation still fluid in relation to potential impacts here but we are at risk of a serious event depending on the exact track of the transitioning storm.

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 3:56am

That's a 50% probability of >34kt for Cork and Kerry at 5 days ??

If this thing doesn't calm down we could be in trouble (and much more importantly, I could miss my 1pm Thursday flight!)

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 3:57am

Amazing In so many ways that we now have a category 5 on our hands. Track very uncertain this mornings runs will cement where the trend is going

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 4:00am

One thing is for sure, the Azores better wake up and start boarding windows.

This is not going to be a fun wait for them. Best case scenario for there now is a Cat 1/2 Hurricane and could be far worse.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 4:00am

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 4:06am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Taking the middle of the road route between ECM and GFS, two if its most quoted sources.

Latest GFS keeping the storm around 20W.
Latest ECM keeping it SE of us

0Z ECM rolls out around 7am and will be important for them in deciding track, although arguable less so given the recent rapid intensification which will not have been fed into the 0Z calculations. Will also be interesting to see if that 0Z run predicts the short term intensification actually.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 4:10am

The Cat 5 status will make little difference to it's end state as it travels northeast. It should not be a concern that it is above predictions at the moment. This is not really relevant later on.

Edit: ICON still dragging this way west of us. No impact here. Be interesting to see how the other models see it playing out.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 4:19am

Icon goes West again and misses Ireland. You would think a deeper system will take this route. I dunno know the main models aren't out yet but I have to say the chances of this storm missing us are quite large tbh

Graces7 · 29-09-2019 4:25am

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a 50% probability of >34kt for Cork and Kerry at 5 days ??

If this thing doesn't calm down we could be in trouble (and much more importantly, I could miss my 1pm Thursday flight!)

and my groceries could be in jeopardy; due Thursday! I mean HOW DARE IT!

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 4:42am

Graces7 wrote: »

and my groceries could be in jeopardy; due Thursday! I mean HOW DARE IT!

A strongly worded letter to Lorenzo is in order. Really not on

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 4:54am

Ukmo weakens it considerably much like last night's run though it does move it directly over Ireland

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 4:57am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Cat 5 status will make little difference to it's end state as it travels northeast. It should not be a concern that it is above predictions at the moment. This is not really relevant later on.

Edit: ICON still dragging this way west of us. No impact here. Be interesting to see how the other models see it playing out.

I understand that, generally speaking, but is it not the case that the more centrifugal force it creates, the more it fights against external "steering"?

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 4:58am

Gfs keeps it way out west. It has to be said we aren't seeing any runs now that show anything notable for Ireland. It's odds on now that this cane will not affect us

DOCARCH · 29-09-2019 6:39am

Featuring now in the ME main/general forecast....

Hurricane Lorenzo is currently positioned in the south Atlantic and will gradually track northeastwards in the coming days. At this stage its impact on Ireland is uncertain. Met Eireann is closely monitoring the progress of Lorenzo.

Tomorrow the place will be awash with....'are we getting a day off work/school' ....questions!

Little snowy old me · 29-09-2019 7:23am

Met Eireann yet again leaving themselves open to criticism. With no certainty regarding Lorenzo at this stage, and indications showing the storm will miss Ireland, they should not have mentioned it in their forecast this morning, even if it is only a vague reference about monitoring it. This will be jumped on by every rag today and businesses and schools all put under unnecessary pressure about days off etc. Have we learned nothing after Ophelia? When the country shut down and most people experienced nothing more than normal gale force winds?

Gaoth Laidir · 29-09-2019 7:28am

Wow, that's some burst in energy overnight! He came home from the pub and started wrecking the place.

It looks like the clouds have warmed in the past hour so so that convection may have relaxed a bit. What it does is now is throw the cat among the pigeons again regarding the ensembles. The GFS is now strictly well west and north of Ireland, but the Canadian CMC is still split. It will be interesting to see what the ECM says.

In any case the NHC have it at the Kerry coast as 60 knots (~50-55 in €) on Friday morning. Their final intensity forecast is about the same as before, despite being higher for the first few days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Mount Vesuvius · 29-09-2019 7:48am

Joe Bastardi is not convinced that Lorenzo is a Cat 5

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1178147438789615616?s=19

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 8:01am

So using the big 3 we have ecm and ukmo in agreement of a direct hit but weakening quite a bit. Gfs is much further West but stronger and avoiding Ireland.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 8:28am

Hard to see the gfs being right here with both its timing and location well off the others....its also nearly a day ahead of the others at 96hrs.....I still think a meeting in between looks the likely scenario with a direct hit possible but the storm disintegrating quite a bit.

giveitholly · 29-09-2019 8:34am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Met Eireann yet again leaving themselves open to criticism. With no certainty regarding Lorenzo at this stage, and indications showing the storm will miss Ireland, they should not have mentioned it in their forecast this morning, even if it is only a vague reference about monitoring it. This will be jumped on by every rag today and businesses and schools all put under unnecessary pressure about days off etc. Have we learned nothing after Ophelia? When the country shut down and most people experienced nothing more than normal gale force winds?

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

uck51js9zml2yt · 29-09-2019 8:39am

As I sit on top of a mountain facing the Atlantic I really hope this is a non event!!!

dsmythy · 29-09-2019 8:54am

Seems the old conundrum a beast to the west or something less to Biscay?

The middle ground cop out. It does track over Ireland and is somewhat notable for the time of year but in the grand scheme of things it's no storm Ali.

Maybe it won't get its act together again until it's north of us and swing NW.

Scrabbel · 29-09-2019 8:54am

giveitholly wrote: »

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

Absolutely right. Without all the warnings, closures and minimisation of travel that number would have been much higher. Imagine what the response on these boards would have been then. Hopefully Lorenzo doesnt hit that hard.

Little snowy old me · 29-09-2019 9:12am

giveitholly wrote: »

And 3 people lost their lives during storm Ophelia but yeah twas only a normal gale

A storm's intensity is not measured by death tolls. Sure a 70kmph gale gust could blow over an old weak tree on top of a minibus and kill several people. That doesn't mean we shut the country down everytime we have winds of 70kmph.

irishgeo · 29-09-2019 9:13am

What's the timings for it to hit?

Oneiric 3 · 29-09-2019 9:20am

Latest ECMWF ensemble mean for windspeeds >50 kts at 850 hPa for next Thursday. Pretty much as you were, though there does seem to be a slight shift westwards away from Ireland.. which is not to say that this will be the case in reality.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 9:28am

A slight shift?? In that photo it's closer to Greenland lol

Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only