Property Market 2019

JDD · 18-04-2019 11:04am

The thing is, the cost is the cost. I wouldn't want to reduce down the standards. I've recently moved into a new build myself and my God - the insulation is just incredible. Our energy bills have literally halved for a house that 20% bigger than the one we previously rented. The sound insulation is brilliant too. It makes me feel that these houses are built to last (touch wood) and not just whacked up with crappy foundations and fire hazards all over the place, like what was built before the financial crisis.

The planning process definitely needs to be reformed.

Wages you can't do much about.

Finance is something the government could do but it would be painted as taxpayers money going to subsidise developers, as would tax cuts. Only ten years out from the financial crisis I don't think that would go down well with the voting public, even if it was part of the right answer.

I don't understand why we don't do shared equity schemes like they do in the UK?

Dolbhad · 18-04-2019 11:06am

The government makes money from financial contributions in the planning, on the VAT on the build from builder, the stamp duty, the VAT on the solicitor fees, auctioneers fees and general taxes on top of that. Maybe a reduction in VAT could bring prices down and could benefit all parties buying rather than FTB.

But as another poster said, this will have a big effect in 20 years. People will have to retire, may not have a pension or paid off a mortgage and still need to rent and we are living for longer. And this puts pressure on the system to accomdate.

Yes I want to buy a house. I’m not asking for a recession to buy at a low price. I don’t mind paying a reasonable affordable price. We should not be wishing that Market crashes and REITs sell quickly and get out. Other countries don’t have high ownership rates - but have a very robust rental market that’s stable and works for both landlord and tenant and can see people into old age. And that should be what the government is aiming for - a market for buying and selling that works for all involved.

JDD · 18-04-2019 11:09am

hmmm wrote: »

The blocks won't be built. Developers don't have the funding, and aren't going to take the chance when it's safer to build low density houses.

The only people who will benefit are existing landlords and property owners as supply dries up.

Are you saying that the banks are only giving them the funding when they undertake at the outset, before even submitting planning, to sell to a REIT? That's not true.

There is enough demand out there to sell an apartment block to a mix of owner occupiers and mid-size landlords. There's no reason to block sell to a REIT except that your selling costs are reduced.

I've read the planning permission documents for my own new housing estate, and the local authority insisted on a number of apartment blocks being built alongside the 3 & 4 bed houses. They also made the developer pack in more houses on to the site. So if developers want planning permission, they're going to have to build those apartment blocks anyway.

beauf · 18-04-2019 11:15am

alwald wrote: »

...it's clear that the current government doesn't have a clear and solid strategy to tackle the housing crisis ....

Oh they do. They've been doing it for a long time.

They make a lot of noise and do nothing people in crisis. Because they don't care about those. There's no money in it.

Create perfect conditions, for large investors. That's where the money is.

Dolbhad · 18-04-2019 11:23am

JDD wrote: »

The sound insulation is brilliant too. It makes me feel that these houses are built to last (touch wood) and not just whacked up with crappy foundations and fire hazards all over the place, like what was built before the financial crisis

Interesting to note. Everyone talks about the BER ratings I had wondered about sound insulation as I’ve heard it was a big issue (the lack of it) for the new builds during the boom. Glad to hear that’s being resolved.

alwald · 18-04-2019 11:39am

Bluefoam wrote:

I think you're missing my point... why would they bother funding or building affordable housing? Let people rent instead. You are working from an outdated model where people would expect to own their houses. The current model would be to use big business to fund building and provide for the masses...

Dolbhad wrote:

But as another poster said, this will have a big effect in 20 years. People will have to retire, may not have a pension or paid off a mortgage and still need to rent and we are living for longer. And this puts pressure on the system to accomdate.

This is one of the reasons...the burden in the state in the future will be huge. Look at how some Nordic countries are currently struggling with the portion of their population that are retired.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 11:43am

alwald wrote: »

This is one of the reasons...the burden in the state in the future will be huge. Look at how some Nordic countries are currently struggling with the portion of their population that are retired.

I agree fully & I agree with the principal of continued property ownership by individuals... I'm not sure the govenment agree... Someone needs to make a strong arguement against the current system, but I don't see anyone taking it up.

beauf · 18-04-2019 11:43am

Building is quality is not down to the age of the building or the regulations.

Its a self regulated industry. So its really down the the quality of the builder. Which is one estate will be well built and the next one not. Different builders.

Dolbhad · 18-04-2019 12:07pm

beauf wrote: »

Building is quality is not down to the age of the building or the regulations.

Its a self regulated industry. So its really down the the quality of the builder. Which is one estate will be well built and the next one not. Different builders.

When I was looking at the new build off plans we had budgeted for an engineer to be engaged before snagging and to go out to the property once or twice as it was going up as that was a concern of mine and it was something our solicitor recommended we do. I’ve had friends buy new builds recently with issues and there are some builders in Cork I’d have no issue buying off and some I would.

The economy is doing well so the old excuse of no cash to invest and build on the governments side isn’t washing anymore. And I would hope since it would be for FF/FG they will have to deal with that at some point down the line that planing would take place now, it seems very unlikely.

The Student · 18-04-2019 1:09pm

Dolbhad wrote: »

When I was looking at the new build off plans we had budgeted for an engineer to be engaged before snagging and to go out to the property once or twice as it was going up as that was a concern of mine and it was something our solicitor recommended we do. I’ve had friends buy new builds recently with issues and there are some builders in Cork I’d have no issue buying off and some I would.

The economy is doing well so the old excuse of no cash to invest and build on the governments side isn’t washing anymore. And I would hope since it would be for FF/FG they will have to deal with that at some point down the line that planing would take place now, it seems very unlikely.

There are a number of reasons the Govt don't want to build directly themselves.

As part of our bailout we can't take anymore debt on to our national debt. Even if we get interest free loans our debt would increase.

Evictions for non payment of mortgages, private rent or council rent is almost non existent and no politician would ever advocate for evictions, its political suicide.

Approved housing bodies are funded by the State but are not part of our national debt and technically are not social housing so people could be evicted (theoretically) easier than a council property.

Without doubt the housing landscape is changing, home ownership is decreasing, renting for life will be the norm for some, the same council property you get in the first instance may not be the only one you live in for your life. As the profile of your family changes so too will the accommodation the council will offer you.

Yes the Govt don't seem to have a strategy, they are alienating 70% of landlords in favour of institutional landlords. They advocate home ownership while they do nothing to help the private tenants.

The Govt don't really care as they will not have a majority at the next election so it will be more of the same. It can easily be compared to the Health sector and the shambles that is and has been for the last 30 yrs.

Unless we as a society change and make tough decisions we will still be debating this in 5 or even 10 yrs time.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 2:16pm

JDD wrote: »

I think there's going to be an issue if four or five REITs end up owning 50-60% of new build rental apartments in the cities.

Think of couples in their early thirties just starting families. In the past, these would be the couples buying first-time starter homes. Except those starter homes are €500k now and they don't have the salaries to cover the mortgage. So they look to buying a two or three bedroom apartment.

When there's such price power amongst a small number of REITs (most of whom are foreign-owned) they can price fix the rental amounts. High rents attract more investors to the apartment markets - pushing the selling price up of those apartments. Suddenly, Joe and Josephine can't afford the apartments either, even if they could find a developer that is going to sell to the owner occupier market.

So they continue to rent, paying €1500-2000 a month on 2 bed apartment. They have two kids, paying upwards of €2000 a month on childcare. Nothing left over to save more so that they have the increasing deposit required to buy a property.

At some point prices will drop. The economy will contract. The REITs will sell. And inevitably, banks will become more conservative in their lending. But J&J are now forty, and the repayments on their now shorter term mortgage (because they are older) and their outgoings on two children means the bank will only lend them enough to buy a property on the outskirts - a starter home. They know they are forty, and wherever they buy now is where they are going to live for the rest of their lives. Their kids are in the local school. They've put down roots where they are renting. So they decide to stay.

There are loads of single people, couples and families like this that I know. Fast forward 20 years, when they retire, we are going to have a MASSIVE problem. Their pensions (if they have one) won't cover continuing to pay rent. Even a gold-plated pension with 40 years service only pays 2/3 of your salary, on the assumption that your mortgage will be paid off. There's going to be a lot of people turning to social welfare, and not enough workers to subsidise that. So you, and me, in 20 years are going to be forking out a ****load more in tax to cover this.

And the REITs will have well gone back to the Canada and the UK, rolling in their rental cash.

So no, I don't think block-selling to a small amount of REITs for the purposes of providing supply to the rental market is a solution to anything.

The "Fast forward 20 years bit" is what makes this an emergency situation and which is why the housing crisis should be treated as such. Right now we have older people sitting in mortgage-free properties that are many multiples what they paid for them who are basically sucking the wealth from the current younger, tax-paying workers and future generations who themselves won't be the fat-cat landowners the current grey generation are as the State will not be able to afford the welfare required to sustain so many people in housing, healthcare, free travel etc.

The governments measures need to be implemented on the basis that we are in an emergency situation and they are not adopting this attitude. The government needs to get rid of tax efficiencies for institutional landlords, reduce taxes private landlords pay and make it far easier to remove tenants for not paying rent.

Unless drastic measures are taken, an international recession would be required in order benefit Ireland's housing crisis as investors pull their money and move to more stable investments.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 2:24pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The "Fast forward 20 years bit" is what makes this an emergency situation and which is why the housing crisis should be treated as such. Right now we have older people sitting in mortgage-free properties that are many multiples what they paid for them who are basically sucking the wealth from the current younger, tax-paying workers and future generations who themselves won't be the fat-cat landowners the current grey generation are as the State will not be able to afford the welfare required to sustain so many people in housing, healthcare, free travel etc.

The governments measures need to be implemented on the basis that we are in an emergency situation and they are not adopting this attitude. Therefore, an international recession would be required in order benefit Ireland's housing crisis as investors pull their money and move to more stable investments.

Oh FFS. Those people who are basically sucking the wealth from you have probably worked all their lives for what they have. They paid up to 18% interest rates and bought houses at very high prices in their day... Inflation was coming at incredible rates... They gave you free education and free health care, improved the ecomony for you...

Stop being so ****ing whiney. There is a miserable younger generation who think that they are being treated badly for the benefit of everyone else... Well, everyone has had it hard, get on with it, make your own way & stop moaning about what others have.

Jaster Rogue · 18-04-2019 2:28pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The "Fast forward 20 years bit" is what makes this an emergency situation and which is why the housing crisis should be treated as such. Right now we have older people sitting in mortgage-free properties that are many multiples what they paid for them who are basically sucking the wealth from the current younger, tax-paying workers and future generations who themselves won't be the fat-cat landowners the current grey generation are as the State will not be able to afford the welfare required to sustain so many people in housing, healthcare, free travel etc.

The governments measures need to be implemented on the basis that we are in an emergency situation and they are not adopting this attitude. The government needs to get rid of tax efficiencies for institutional landlords, reduce taxes private landlords pay and make it far easier to remove tenants for not paying rent.

Unless drastic measures are taken, an international recession would be required in order benefit Ireland's housing crisis as investors pull their money and move to more stable investments.

Just out of interest, what would you consider a more stable investment than property?

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 2:28pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Oh FFS. Those people who are basically sucking the wealth from you have probably worked all their lives for what they have. They paid up to 18% interest rates and bought houses at very high prices in their day... Inflation was coming at incredible rates...

Stop being so ****ing whiney. There is a miserable younger generation who think that they are being treated badly for the benefit of everyone else... Well, everyone has had it hard, get on with it, make your own way & stop moaning about what others have.

Truth hurts, clearly.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 2:30pm

Jaster Rogue wrote: »

Just out of interest, what would you consider a more stable investment than property?

Highly-rated fixed income securities like government bonds that would be less risky than property investments, particularly if there was a recession environment.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 2:31pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Truth hurts, clearly.

WTF... I'm in the same boat. Trying to buy a house to live in. Difference is, that I'm not worried about what other people have and what I think I should deserve. I'm just working hard and struggling by like everyone else. Who the **** are you to complain about older people who are benefitting from a life of hard work?

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 2:46pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

WTF... I'm in the same boat. Trying to buy a house to live in. Difference is, that I'm not worried about what other people have and what I think I should deserve. I'm just working hard and struggling by like everyone else. Who the **** are you to complain about older people who are benefitting from a life of hard work?

If measures were taken now which resulted in current average house prices dropping 40% (which would be more sustainable), would you have an issue with that?

alwald · 18-04-2019 2:48pm

The Student wrote:

As part of our bailout we can't take anymore debt on to our national debt. Even if we get interest free loans our debt would increase.

Why take a debt when there is a massive budget for housing overall? Shouldn't this miserable government use those funds to build more?

Other than that I agree with the fact that this government isn't going to do anything and that next elections are key.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 2:53pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

If measures were taken now which resulted in current average house prices dropping 40% (which would be more sustainable), would you have an issue with that?

By measures, do you mean a massive recession? You do realise that a big drop in property prices (like 40%) would mean a huge economic crash & people like you will not benefit from that in the way you think. The wealthy people with more than you will benefit, and they will buy the cheap property. Before you know it the prices will increase through normal economic growth and you'll be back at square one.

The fact is this... Property is selling, even though the price is high. people are buying it & can afford to buy it. People who can afford the property are driving the house prices. If that doesn't include you, then you need to become one of those people.

Property prices will always increase. inflation will continue... until mother nature interjects and it won't matter anymore.

AlmightyCushion · 18-04-2019 2:58pm

alwald wrote: »

Why take a debt when there is a massive budget for housing overall? Shouldn't this miserable government use those funds to build more?

Other than that I agree with the fact that this government isn't going to do anything and that next elections are key.

What funds? The state is still running a deficit so for the state to fund building we'd need to borrow for it.

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:02pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

...Right now we have older people sitting in mortgage-free properties that are many multiples what they paid for them who are basically sucking the wealth from the current younge...

Maybe you'll explain how they are sucking wealth from the younger generations???

Give it 30 yrs and consider its you, facing huge property tax, perhaps poll tax, rates etc and massive health insurance bills, nursing home fees of 100k a year, and all pensions raided until they are worth nothing.

I think you might realise that is not the older generations, but the Govts you've voted in that are sucking your wealth from you.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 3:09pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

By measures, do you mean a massive recession? You do realise that a big drop in property prices (like 40%) would mean a huge economic crash & people like you will not benefit from that in the way you think. The wealthy people with more than you will benefit, and they will buy the cheap property. Before you know it the prices will increase through normal economic growth and you'll be back at square one.

The fact is this... Property is selling, even though the price is high. people are buying it & can afford to buy it. People who can afford the property are driving the house prices. If that doesn't include you, then you need to become one of those people.

Property prices will always increase. inflation will continue... until mother nature interjects and it won't matter anymore.

Ignoring the "property prices will always increase" outrageous claim;

I would say measures as in a big increase in apartments and houses being built and being available for purchase by individuals as opposed to institutionals, as well as greater incentives for private landlords to enter the market again. If there was plentiful supply and it resulted in current house prices dropping around 40% of the current averages, this is surely a good thing?

"Wealthy people" are not wealthy because they sit on mountains of cash, often it is assets which make them wealthy so I don't agree that an international recession would result in wealthy people snapping up all the property.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 3:17pm

beauf wrote: »

Maybe you'll explain how they are sucking wealth from the younger generations???

Give it 30 yrs and consider its you, facing huge property tax, perhaps poll tax, rates etc and massive health insurance bills, nursing home fees of 100k a year, and all pensions raided until they are worth nothing.

I think you might realise that is not the older generations, but the Govts you've voted in that are sucking your wealth from you.

By having to borrow many multiples of their salary just to give to a property owner, indebting themselves to a bank for decades in the process. Pumping so much money into property via rent or a mortgage is such a waste.

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:17pm

You are complaining that people buying property and having it appreciate are blocking those who want to buy.

But those unable to buy they did manage to buy then are they not doing exactly the same thing?

Mickiemcfist · 18-04-2019 3:18pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

"Wealthy people" are not wealthy because they sit on mountains of cash, often it is assets which make them wealthy so I don't agree that an international recession would result in wealthy people snapping up all the property.

Have you just landed in Ireland, or just got a newly found interest in the Irish property market? Have a read up on what has been happening over the last decade...

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 3:20pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Ignoring the "property prices will always increase" outrageous claim;

I would say measures as in a big increase in apartments and houses being built and being available for purchase by individuals as opposed to institutionals, as well as greater incentives for private landlords to enter the market again. If there was plentiful supply and it resulted in current house prices dropping around 40% of the current averages, this is surely a good thing?

"Wealthy people" are not wealthy because they sit on mountains of cash, often it is assets which make them wealthy so I don't agree that an international recession would result in wealthy people snapping up all the property.

lol... I don't know what to do with this... These are exactly (some of) the conditions that created that last recession. It doesn't work. It hasn't worked, thats why they stopped it. It litterally caused death and destruction.

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:20pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

By having to borrow many multiples of their salary just to give to a property owner, indebting themselves to a bank for decades in the process. Pumping so much money into property via rent or a mortgage is such a waste.

At some point someone has had to do that to get a property.

Its the cycle of life.

Even if you are are anti inherited wealth you'll see that over a few generations unless someone is able to generate income to maintain that wealth, it will eventually dissipate.

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:21pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Have you just landed in Ireland, or just got a newly found interest in the Irish property market? Have a read up on what has been happening over the last decade...

Last 30 yrs more like.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 3:22pm

beauf wrote: »

You are complaining that people buying property and having it appreciate are blocking those who want to buy.

But those unable to buy they did manage to buy then are they not doing exactly the same thing?

I'm not saying it is they themselves but a system which pervades allowing them to benefit disproportionately. This article explains it quite well http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/contented-classes-could-be-biggest-threat-to-irish-economy/

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 3:24pm

beauf wrote: »

Maybe you'll explain how they are sucking wealth from the younger generations???

Give it 30 yrs and consider its you, facing huge property tax, perhaps poll tax, rates etc and massive health insurance bills, nursing home fees of 100k a year, and all pensions raided until they are worth nothing.

I think you might realise that is not the older generations, but the Govts you've voted in that are sucking your wealth from you.

The ironic thing is that, if I was caught in the rental crisis until my 40s, I won't actually have to worry about the above as I won't have any security into retirement meaning the State will have to pick up the tab.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 3:27pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

lol... I don't know what to do with this... These are exactly (some of) the conditions that created that last recession. It doesn't work. It hasn't worked, thats why they stopped it. It litterally caused death and destruction.

Pushing credit onto people is what caused the last recession. Prudent lending went out the door. You can't blame people for taking "free money" (equally, people need to accept they over-extended and take their justified evictions). The current crisis has emerged due to the lack of apartment and home building the last 10 years so it is the solution to get appropriate housing built in the areas that need it.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 3:27pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm not saying it is they themselves but a system which pervades allowing them to benefit disproportionately. This article explains it quite well http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/contented-classes-could-be-biggest-threat-to-irish-economy/

You don't benefit from DMW's eloquence with words
I'm not sure you fully understand the article
Yes I understand what he's saying.... But...
.... That is not what you said above

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 3:33pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Pushing credit onto people is what caused the last recession. Prudent lending went out the door. You can't blame people for taking "free money" (equally, people need to accept they over-extended and take their justified evictions). The current crisis has emerged due to the lack of apartment and home building the last 10 years so it is the solution to get appropriate housing built in the areas that need it.

Am I reading this right... you want to create a recession-like economy, you want to be tough on lending, you want to limit credit, you want houses built on a massive scale (+apartments), you don't want a free market that can increase or decrease depending on inflationary inputs or demand. You want individuals and landlords/investors to compete in the same market. You don't want old people to retan the property they worked hard for. You think it outragious that property should increase in value. Note the word *value.

You want it all...

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:34pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm not saying it is they themselves but a system which pervades allowing them to benefit disproportionately. This article explains it quite well http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/contented-classes-could-be-biggest-threat-to-irish-economy/

Thats not what that article is about.

Also look at the messenger and where they live.

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:35pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Pushing credit onto people is what caused the last recession. Prudent lending went out the door. You can't blame people for taking "free money" (equally, people need to accept they over-extended and take their justified evictions). The current crisis has emerged due to the lack of apartment and home building the last 10 years so it is the solution to get appropriate housing built in the areas that need it.

Look beyond peoples individual borrowing.
Who gave them the money and why?
Perhaps those institutions borrowed big and needed to more that debt onward.

beauf · 18-04-2019 3:37pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The ironic thing is that, if I was caught in the rental crisis until my 40s, I won't actually have to worry about the above as I won't have any security into retirement meaning the State will have to pick up the tab.

That suggests such people have goals that are not sustainable.
Perhaps they should think the master plan.

The Student · 18-04-2019 3:37pm

alwald wrote: »

Why take a debt when there is a massive budget for housing overall? Shouldn't this miserable government use those funds to build more?

Other than that I agree with the fact that this government isn't going to do anything and that next elections are key.

The decisions taken are not just financial ones. Firstly the tax take for the govt from private (non institutional) landlords is in the main over 50%.

For this the Govt don't have the risk of non payment, don't have the maintenance costs. The Govt also are not blamed on any eviction should it happen.

Firstly while in the long term from a financial perspective it would make sense for the State to build rather than rent with this comes its own problems. We would need significant capital investment to build the number of properties needed. We can't access the capital to do this because of the conditions of the bailout. If the properties were built where would the be built, we have ample land outside of Dublin, Cork and Galway for example but people want their "forever home" in these areas. I don't have an issue with supporting those who genuinely need support, I do however have an issue with people picking and choosing where they will agree to live despite the fact they are receiving heavily subsidized housing.

Secondly, there are the cost savings to the State for support staff to maintain council properties.

Thirdly because of our culture people are never really held to account for their actions in all sectors of society. Be it for committing criminal offences or even failing to pay mortgages, rents, fines etc.

All in all what the State "pays" for housing is not actually a bad deal when you consider the above.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 3:52pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

1.You don't benefit from DMW's eloquence with words
2.I'm not sure you fully understand the article
3.Yes I understand what he's saying.... But...
4..... That is not what you said above

The post I was replying to said this;

beauf wrote: »

You are complaining that people buying property and having it appreciate are blocking those who want to buy.

But those unable to buy they did manage to buy then are they not doing exactly the same thing?

This post misread what I was saying - I was not complaining about people in the present day who are buying, but rather was complaining that property prices have inflated dramatically in recent decades, compounded by the rental crisis. The burden on those renting and hoping to buy is disproportionately against them. House prices need to dramatically climb down or else the burden on income-tax paying, renting workers should be alleviated by extracting some of the wealth in property back into the exchequer.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 4:15pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The post I was replying to said this;

This post misread what I was saying - I was not complaining about people in the present day who are buying, but rather was complaining that property prices have inflated dramatically in recent decades, compounded by the rental crisis. The burden on those renting and hoping to buy is disproportionately against them. House prices need to dramatically climb down or else the burden on income-tax paying, renting workers should be alleviated by extracting some of the wealth in property back into the exchequer.

I actually don't get what you are saying, probably because you are all over the place... but, the article above was about nimbyism and its effect on the market. What you are talking about is taking from people who bought and stuggled to own their property in order to give to those who don't...

So, when you eventually own your property and have security for your future, are you going to willingly give up your property to help those who don't own yet?

Bearing in mind we will be living in a completely different ecoomy at that time... Are you going to give up whats you have built and put your future/your retirement in the hands of the young people & trust them to do the best for you?

I certainly wouldn't.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 4:52pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

I actually don't get what you are saying, probably because you are all over the place... but, the article above was about nimbyism and its effect on the market. What you are talking about is taking from people who bought and stuggled to own their property in order to give to those who don't...

So, when you eventually own your property and have security for your future, are you going to willingly give up your property to help those who don't own yet?

Bearing in mind we will be living in a completely different ecoomy at that time... Are you going to give up whats you have built and put your future/your retirement in the hands of the young people & trust them to do the best for you?

I certainly wouldn't.

I'm not saying to take from them what they bought and struggled for, I'm talking about preventing so much wealth getting pumped into hyper-inflated property prices by bringing in measures to greatly reduce the cost of buying homes in Ireland as we are very much a society where home ownership is something people have to aim for and not long-term renting.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 4:58pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm not saying to take from them what they bought and struggled for, I'm talking about preventing so much wealth getting pumped into hyper-inflated property prices by bringing in measures to greatly reduce the cost of buying homes in Ireland as we are very much a society where home ownership is something people have to aim for and not long-term renting.

So by forcebly reducing property prices by 40% you will either push people into massive negative equity, with debt greater than the value of their assets, or you will take wealth away from those who have worked hard to gain it. BTW massive international firms will realise this drain and march right back in to take a slice of the pie...

Alternatively, you could meet the world economy, allow house prices to trend in line with international levels & house many people by improving rental conditions.

No matter what you do, property prices will increase, due to world markets and inflation. It is written.

beauf · 18-04-2019 5:02pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The post I was replying to said this;

This post misread what I was saying - I was not complaining about people in the present day who are buying, but rather was complaining that property prices have inflated dramatically in recent decades, compounded by the rental crisis. The burden on those renting and hoping to buy is disproportionately against them. House prices need to dramatically climb down or else the burden on income-tax paying, renting workers should be alleviated by extracting some of the wealth in property back into the exchequer.

The people in the present day are the same people as those who bought 20 yrs ago.

Assetbacked · 18-04-2019 5:02pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

So by forcebly reducing property prices by 40% you will either push people into massive negative equity, with debt greater than the value of their assets, or you will take wealth away from those who have worked hard to gain it. BTW massive international firms will realise this drain and march right back in to take a slice of the pie...

Alternatively, you could meet the world economy, allow house prices to trend in line with international levels & house many people by improving rental conditions.

No matter what you do, property prices will increase, due to world markets and inflation. It is written.

But then how did property prices crash during the great recession after 2008? You are claiming that property prices will continue to rise even though we already know we are in another property bubble of sorts.

Graham · 18-04-2019 5:09pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

we already know we are in another property bubble of sorts.

we do?

Sarn · 18-04-2019 5:14pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

But then how did property prices crash during the great recession after 2008? You are claiming that property prices will continue to rise even though we already know we are in another property bubble of sorts.

I wouldn’t agree that we are in another bubble. Prices are high, but I would only anticipate relatively small drops when you take into account the massive pent up demand and urgency to get out of paying extortionate rents, coupled with the (relatively) restricted access to credit.

People are currently buying houses based on 3.5 to 4 times their salary. This contrasts with people obtaining 6-10 times their salary (+income for renting out some of the rooms) as a mortgage and then using the built up “equity” in the first to buy another property. The turning off of the credit tap contributed to the drop. Housing became toxic, while rents were relatively cheap. The pressure on the housing market disappeared which further caused prices to fall.

Bluefoam · 18-04-2019 5:14pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

But then how did property prices crash during the great recession after 2008? You are claiming that property prices will continue to rise even though we already know we are in another property bubble of sorts.

YES

they will drop occassionally, sometimes faltten, but ultimatley they will rise. Are we in a bubble? Or are we just in a trend involving peaks and troughs?

The shocking gains of the pas in Irish property were to do with a number of factors... our past as a colony, the desperation that caused to own property, De Valeras insular economic policy until the fifties. The opening up of our ecomony. Ultimately the dumping of cheap money by European institutions into our market to make a quick buck... So our house prices rose from a very small begining into a range beyond our means, there was never a drop because all of the mittigating factors came together to ensure demand... Unitl it all fell apart in 2007/9... Now we know that prices can drop, just as they do in every other country. But like every other country they wil also rise at a higher rate. Thats where you get a chart with peaks and troughs... Even if we do experience more property price drops, they will rise again, and prices will inevitably increase. They always have and always will. Irish property prices are relatively well positioned on the world scale...

beauf · 18-04-2019 5:49pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

But then how did property prices crash during the great recession after 2008? You are claiming that property prices will continue to rise even though we already know we are in another property bubble of sorts.

Most things and industries are cyclical.

But the general trend is upwards.

Unless of course, its something like an area dependant on one economic activity like mining which suddenly stops.

padz · 18-04-2019 5:59pm

Interesting discussion, imo the real risk is of potential buyers getting completely turned off the property market,

we all know the the ins and outs of what happened ten+ years ago and the situation today, if you're asking people to commit to 25 years+ mortgage they want to know there's that it's not just another plump and dump, imo we're at a point now where a lot of the fish have been caught in the net so to speak, some people are probably v happy other's prob are already in neg equity even If they only bought 2 yrs ago depending on the area, there's also the older owners who are still recovering from the past ten years, still paying their mortgages

The Banks do not care, if things head down hill they'll just go into consolidation mode as we Saw before arrears penalties, repo process & selling off, they're after people who can make the payments, pass the stress test, deposit etc weather Google decide to downsize they aren't factoring in that, there's also a risk of people leaving ireland due to being locked out of the market & high rents.

If people start leaving ireland,single professionals who can just up and leave, people who aren't tied to a mortgage or family, once that happens and people make that decision to go then we're back to where we we're ten years ago

beauf · 18-04-2019 6:05pm

There was a move to privatise lost of Govt services Globally and often social housing was one of the big ticket items to be privatised, commoditized.
So the same issue has occurred lots of places. So where ever you move to you are likely to have that same issue.
However the work/life balance is different if you can get a job or earn an income outside the high demand (housing) areas, you might be able to escape the rat race.

When I was starting out getting job in Ireland was almost impossible so lots of people left. I'm surprised more don't emigrate now.

Fol20 · 18-04-2019 6:16pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm not saying to take from them what they bought and struggled for, I'm talking about preventing so much wealth getting pumped into hyper-inflated property prices by bringing in measures to greatly reduce the cost of buying homes in Ireland as we are very much a society where home ownership is something people have to aim for and not long-term renting.

Or you change our society where home ownership is not the norm and you create a mature long term rental market. Not everyone can and should own a home.

Property Market 2019

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