Property Market 2019

JJJackal · 14-06-2019 1:11pm

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

I was speaking personally as someone who's paying 8% gross income on rent.

By the way you haven't included the difference in running costs, insurance, property tax, maybe management fees etc, maintenance costs. For example the house I rent needs new couches, blinds, whole thing painting etc.

Of course if I was paying the normal massive rents I'd say buy. People paying 10k a year should buy now.

I didnt include maintenance costs or management fees

I also didnt include the cost of moving house and the uncertainty of tenure in rental accommodation. As you say the house you rent needs x y and z but is it going to get any of those? And you cant remedy these issues yourself realistically. You may also have to live with people in your rented property. You may not like that. In your own home you can rent a room up to 14,000 year tax free and kick out your paying guest whenever suits you. Its more likely that you would rent a room out in 2006 aged x- 6 years (although at the height of boom) than in 2012 aged x years. Your more likely to be young free and single in 2006 than 6 years later based on trends in the population,

If you saw a nice kitchen table that you wanted to buy it would be difficult as where would you store the one thats currently in your rented property. How do you insure your contents in a rented property. It costs about 50% of the cost of insuring a house if memory serves me correctly. Property tax only became a thing in circ 2012? So it would apply to both properties (the one bought in 2006 and 2012/2013) from its introduction I suspect

JJJackal · 14-06-2019 1:13pm

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

I hate it too.

I see people say price doesn't matter if it's your forever home, but if I knew prices would come down 20k next year why would I pay that?

If you or I knew that for certain we would be minted

The_Conductor · 14-06-2019 1:18pm

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Of course if I was paying the normal massive rents I'd say buy. People paying 10k a year should buy now.

It depends entirely on the cost of ownership- versus the cost of renting.
Very often there are costs of ownership that people fail to enumerate.

E.g. a 2 bed apartment in Galway city.
Gross rent of 10k per annum.

Current valuation 220k

Cost of ownership:

Mortgage interest: 200k @ 3.5% = 7,000
Management Charges: 1,250
Insurance: 400
General upkeep: 750
Depreciation of furniture, fixtures and fittings: 1,000

Those are reasonable (even quite conservative) assumptions.
Yet- the cost of ownership- still exceeds the rent (not by a massive amount- but it exceeds it nonetheless).

It all depends. People pretty much always underestimate the costs of ownership- when comparing it with the headline rent they are paying.

awec · 14-06-2019 1:27pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I nearly cry when I keep seeing this term.
The whole concept of a 'forever home' is a historic anachronism that few people in the modern world will have any reasonable hope of subscribing to.
It is increasingly the norm that you'll move several times throughout your life- as your circumstances change- and this whole concept of a 'forever home' really needs to be knocked on the head.

Erica Fleming has a lot to answer for.

Do you have stats on this?

There are plenty of people who are looking for their forever home. Maybe they've already moved before and this is their second home. Maybe they're buying a big 4 bed house as their first purchase knowing it'll accommodate the family they want to have.

Yea, some people will have unexpected changes in circumstance that dictate a house move, but dismissing the idea of a "forever home" out of hand just seems overly dramatic.

Twenty Grand · 14-06-2019 1:51pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

It depends entirely on the cost of ownership- versus the cost of renting.
Very often there are costs of ownership that people fail to enumerate.

E.g. a 2 bed apartment in Galway city.
Gross rent of 10k per annum.

Current valuation 220k

Cost of ownership:

Mortgage interest: 200k @ 3.5% = 7,000
Management Charges: 1,250
Insurance: 400
General upkeep: 750
Depreciation of furniture, fixtures and fittings: 1,000

Those are reasonable (even quite conservative) assumptions.
Yet- the cost of ownership- still exceeds the rent (not by a massive amount- but it exceeds it nonetheless).

It all depends. People pretty much always underestimate the costs of ownership- when comparing it with the headline rent they are paying.

Firstly I'd say that using an apartment is also a bad example, since the majority buy houses

Secondly you now own a home.
It's yours. You can do whatever you want with it.
Your piece of land. Your own garden.
You're not beholden to a landlord.

You're not counting rental depreciation because no one buys furniture for a rental. You just use whatever's there, no matter how for or bad.

Financially you're better off in the short term, but not in the long.
Your mortgage is inflation proof.
The value of your house will go up in time, with inflation and demand. Your rent will creep up over time, and you'll be evicted eventually.

JJJackal · 14-06-2019 2:24pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

It depends entirely on the cost of ownership- versus the cost of renting.
Very often there are costs of ownership that people fail to enumerate.

E.g. a 2 bed apartment in Galway city.
Gross rent of 10k per annum.

Current valuation 220k

Cost of ownership:

Mortgage interest: 200k @ 3.5% = 7,000
Management Charges: 1,250
Insurance: 400
General upkeep: 750
Depreciation of furniture, fixtures and fittings: 1,000

Those are reasonable (even quite conservative) assumptions.
Yet- the cost of ownership- still exceeds the rent (not by a massive amount- but it exceeds it nonetheless).

It all depends. People pretty much always underestimate the costs of ownership- when comparing it with the headline rent they are paying.

A 2 bed apartment in Galway city.
Gross rent of 10k per annum. (minimum in galway city is 14k at market value circ 1200 a month

Current valuation 220k

Cost of ownership:

Mortgage interest: 200k @ 3.5% = 7,000 tax deductible plus 3800 for principal
Management Charges: 1,250 tax deductible
Insurance: 400 tax deductible
Property Tax: 350? (not going to look it up) not tax deductible
General upkeep: 750 tax deductible
Depreciation of furniture, fixtures and fittings: 1,000 tax deductible

At 14k rent you will needing to put about 1000 of your money into to service mortgage or bills or tax (depending on the tax you need to pay)

but if you buy 2 bed and rent out a room... your quids in

Edit: i think 750 and 1000 are generous for upkeep and depreciation

cruizer101 · 14-06-2019 2:40pm

JJJackal wrote: »

A 2 bed apartment in Galway city.
Gross rent of 10k per annum. (minimum in galway city is 14k at market value circ 1200 a month

Current valuation 220k

Cost of ownership:

Mortgage interest: 200k @ 3.5% = 7,000 tax deductible plus 3800 for principal
Management Charges: 1,250 tax deductible
Insurance: 400 tax deductible
Property Tax: 350? (not going to look it up) not tax deductible
General upkeep: 750 tax deductible
Depreciation of furniture, fixtures and fittings: 1,000 tax deductible

At 14k rent you will needing to put about 1000 of your money into to service mortgage or bills or tax (depending on the tax you need to pay)

but if you buy 2 bed and rent out a room... your quids in

Edit: i think 750 and 1000 are generous for upkeep and depreciation

Is this not a comparison between renting to live in and owning to live in? If you own a property I don't think any of those are tax deductable.

Two big difference between the two first is inflation, over the course of your mortgage the repayment amount will stay the same (interest rates may well rise but it is still not going to change that much) where as rent will inflate.
Second in 30 years you own the property, you still have certain expenses (upkeep, property tax, etc.) but nothing compared to having to pay for rent for another 20 years (most people get mortgage around 30, paid off by 60, live to 80.)

JJJackal · 14-06-2019 2:43pm

cruizer101 wrote: »

Is this not a comparison between renting to live in and owning to live in? If you own a property I don't think any of those are tax deductable.

Two big difference between the two first is inflation, over the course of your mortgage the repayment amount will stay the same (interest rates may well rise but it is still not going to change that much) where as rent will inflate.
Second in 30 years you own the property, you still have certain expenses (upkeep, property tax, etc.) but nothing compared to having to pay for rent for another 20 years (most people get mortgage around 30, paid off by 60, live to 80.)

Apologies your right - misread the comment I replied to

kippy · 14-06-2019 3:23pm

There are lots of people out there looking for a 'forever home'. I'm not a big fan of the term but its the reality.
Granted peoples circumstances may change in life but generally you have people who settle down, have kids and get on with life. These people tend to want a property that will suit their needs, enough to expand into, green space, near schools etc etc.
There simply isn't enough stability in the rental market for people to want to remain renting with a family, if they can avoid it, and the costs and potential pitfalls of multiple 'property ladder' acquisitions over your life time as situations change don't appeal to many.

There's others people here looking for a 10 percent drop in prices as they stand. Properties were 10 percent cheaper 3 odd years ago. That was probably the time to buy. Maybe they weren't in a position to buy then, fair enough. What happens if this ten percent correction doesn't come?
Everyone's circumstances are different but once you have gotten through the will I won't I buy, then go through the actual process, you'll most likely never want to go through it again.

hmmm · 14-06-2019 4:27pm

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Of course if I was paying the normal massive rents I'd say buy. People paying 10k a year should buy now.

That's a key point. You can't directly compare renting versus buying, renting gives you flexibility which is worth a lot to many people - easy to move to a new job, easy to get up and leave to a new area.

However the current dysfunctional rental market has changed all the calculations because rents are so high and supply so limited. If you are reasonably settled, renting doesn't make much sense at the moment compared to buying.

Re waiting for a 10% drop - is it really worth the stress? The 2008 crisis was extraordinary, I doubt we'll ever see anything like that again. There are some potential dangers on the horizon, e.g. Brexit, government spending like drunken monkeys, but these will always be hanging over us - there's a saying in equities that the market climbs a wall of worry, i.e. there will always be things hanging over us, but in reality everything just muddles along. I certainly wouldn't be buying thinking I was going to get property price appreciation, but if you can lock yourself into a comfortable mortgage for a property in an area you like there doesn't seem to be a huge downside.

The_Conductor · 14-06-2019 4:59pm

awec wrote: »

Do you have stats on this?

There are plenty of people who are looking for their forever home. Maybe they've already moved before and this is their second home. Maybe they're buying a big 4 bed house as their first purchase knowing it'll accommodate the family they want to have.

Yea, some people will have unexpected changes in circumstance that dictate a house move, but dismissing the idea of a "forever home" out of hand just seems overly dramatic.

I don't have Irish stats- I do have US stats (from their census questionaire).
In 1980 the average US citizen moved home 6.3 times in their lifetime.
In 1990 the average US citizen moved home 6.8 times in their lifetime.
In 2000 the average US citizen moved home 7.2 times in their lifetime.
In 2010 the average US citizen moved home 11.7 times in their lifetime.

The average US citizen under the age of 18 has moved with their family 2.6 times during their childhood, and can expect to move their household as an adult 9.7 times on average.

It would seem that there was a slow but steady increase in the number of times a US citizen moved their household up to 20 years ago- when it sped up and almost doubled in frequency.

We don't collect commensurate statistics in Ireland- however, I've no reason not to believe that were similar statistics available, they would show a similar trend.

Note- the above figures- are just the 'average' person- there will be people who never ever move- and similarly- there will be people who move incredibly frequently.

It would be an interesting statistic- if there was a commensurate question added to the Irish census- and indeed- it'll be very interesting what the census next year in the States throws up- there is already partisan battles over some of the questions they intend to ask participants.

awec · 14-06-2019 6:36pm

That's the number of times someone has moved in their lifetime though, which I think is a misleading statistic in this context. That would include childhood, student digs, rentals etc.

I mean, if it's that wide, then I guess I've moved home 9 times. But I've only ever bought 1 house.

I would imagine the average Irish person would buy 2 properties in their life. For many I'd imagine they only ever buy 1.

Bigmac1euro · 14-06-2019 6:41pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I don't have Irish stats- I do have US stats (from their census questionaire).
In 1980 the average US citizen moved home 6.3 times in their lifetime.
In 1990 the average US citizen moved home 6.8 times in their lifetime.
In 2000 the average US citizen moved home 7.2 times in their lifetime.
In 2010 the average US citizen moved home 11.7 times in their lifetime.

The average US citizen under the age of 18 has moved with their family 2.6 times during their childhood, and can expect to move their household as an adult 9.7 times on average.

It would seem that there was a slow but steady increase in the number of times a US citizen moved their household up to 20 years ago- when it sped up and almost doubled in frequency.

We don't collect commensurate statistics in Ireland- however, I've no reason not to believe that were similar statistics available, they would show a similar trend.

Note- the above figures- are just the 'average' person- there will be people who never ever move- and similarly- there will be people who move incredibly frequently.

It would be an interesting statistic- if there was a commensurate question added to the Irish census- and indeed- it'll be very interesting what the census next year in the States throws up- there is already partisan battles over some of the questions they intend to ask participants.

You can’t compare America with Ireland in the slightest. They have hundreds of cities and towns worth living in. Ireland has Dublin, apologies to the rest of the country lol

Mad_maxx · 14-06-2019 8:26pm

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

This is particularly true outside of Dublin , prices are reducing and fear is setting in again .

It's not the case in Limerick city which is now every bit as expensive as Galway to rent and not a whole lot cheaper to buy

Plenty of different markets doing their own thing.

FutureGuy · 14-06-2019 9:14pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

It's not the case in Limerick city which is now every bit as expensive as Galway to rent and not a whole lot cheaper to buy

Plenty of different markets doing their own thing.

Decent houses are easily going 10-15% above asking in Limerick. We were looking at a house at 230k, went for 259k. Another at 220 went for 255k.

Meanwhile, the city centre and much of the north of the city is not covered by RPZ. Our rent has gone from 700 to 1050 in 3 years. Some apartments in our block now going for 1300/month.

With so many companies going into the city centre, rents will only be going one direction for the foreseeable future.

voluntary · 14-06-2019 11:08pm

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

You can’t compare America with Ireland in the slightest. They have hundreds of cities and towns worth living in. Ireland has Dublin, apologies to the rest of the country lol

You live in Europe. Europe has 'hundreds of cities and towns worth living in". You should really compare Ireland to maybe one of the states.

Glenbhoy · 15-06-2019 12:48am

The_Conductor wrote: »

I nearly cry when I keep seeing this term.
The whole concept of a 'forever home' is a historic anachronism that few people in the modern world will have any reasonable hope of subscribing to.
It is increasingly the norm that you'll move several times throughout your life- as your circumstances change- and this whole concept of a 'forever home' really needs to be knocked on the head.

Erica Fleming has a lot to answer for.

It depends on interpretation, for me, the phrase means you're not buying requiring appreciation in order to trade up to a home that will actually suit your needs. Maybe "the home I could cope with being stuck in forever" would be more apt, but possibly not as marketable!!

Mad_maxx · 15-06-2019 7:45am

FutureGuy wrote: »

Decent houses are easily going 10-15% above asking in Limerick. We were looking at a house at 230k, went for 259k. Another at 220 went for 255k.

Meanwhile, the city centre and much of the north of the city is not covered by RPZ. Our rent has gone from 700 to 1050 in 3 years. Some apartments in our block now going for 1300/month.

With so many companies going into the city centre, rents will only be going one direction for the foreseeable future.

Limerick was irrationally cheap for far too long, even the estate agents were playing it down, I bought a two bed apartment in a very desirable development in 2015 for 120 k and three different auctioneers ( who I was in talks with about different property) told me I paid mad money, now I know you can't trust an auctioneer to tell you the time of day but for me it was a reflection of pessimism overkill

People in Limerick find it hard to be comfortable with a culture of affluence

tigger123 · 15-06-2019 12:34pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I don't have Irish stats- I do have US stats (from their census questionaire).
In 1980 the average US citizen moved home 6.3 times in their lifetime.
In 1990 the average US citizen moved home 6.8 times in their lifetime.
In 2000 the average US citizen moved home 7.2 times in their lifetime.
In 2010 the average US citizen moved home 11.7 times in their lifetime.

The average US citizen under the age of 18 has moved with their family 2.6 times during their childhood, and can expect to move their household as an adult 9.7 times on average.

It would seem that there was a slow but steady increase in the number of times a US citizen moved their household up to 20 years ago- when it sped up and almost doubled in frequency.

We don't collect commensurate statistics in Ireland- however, I've no reason not to believe that were similar statistics available, they would show a similar trend.

Note- the above figures- are just the 'average' person- there will be people who never ever move- and similarly- there will be people who move incredibly frequently.

It would be an interesting statistic- if there was a commensurate question added to the Irish census- and indeed- it'll be very interesting what the census next year in the States throws up- there is already partisan battles over some of the questions they intend to ask participants.

I think you'd need to cross reference that with the age at which people bought their first property. For example, many people these days are renting for a number of years before they get married, have kids etc and buy a place.

So while the number of times people have moved has increased, its because theres more renting happening, for longer periods.

I've moved about 10 times in the last 15 years, and am buying my first house now. My Dad on the other hand moved from his family home to his first purchased home at the age of 25 or so.

In short, peoples lives these days have a drastically different trajectory.

beauf · 15-06-2019 12:44pm

I'd assume people are more likely to move for work now I assume. Since it's easier to get around

Bigmac1euro · 15-06-2019 12:45pm

voluntary wrote: »

You live in Europe. Europe has 'hundreds of cities and towns worth living in". You should really compare Ireland to maybe one of the states.

So do you think the average Irish person moves around Europe 11 times in their life.
Purchasing a home now does require it to be a forever home most of the time. I may move once in my life but I reckon it’s unlikely with the way things are it’s too difficult.

beauf · 15-06-2019 12:49pm

Seems to me more people these days expect to be able to live and work in Ireland more than they used to. It was just assumed in older generations you'd have to emigrate. Most of my peers emigrated at some point, some came back, a lot didn't.

padz · 16-06-2019 6:29am

anecdotally from personal conversation recently, there's a lot of people saving, bedding down before planning on leaving, have a lot of forign non EU aqetances too who have said they've saved enough or sent enough home to India (they've enough for a villa) And are leaving, just sharing, definitely feels like Ireland's on the slide in that regard, I'm sure sales will happen but could become repo's in a year or two If banks aren't careful

Edit... I'm sure you all know the term pump and dump, I was joking with forign friends who feel Yes theyve made enough from Ireland and are ready to dump, it's an unfortunate thing of having an open economy but this is what you get

padz · 16-06-2019 6:45am

Follow up post, unfortunately you'll end up with the people who you want to leave won't leave and the rest paying mortgages and the state supporting the REITs, unfortunately this is the worst of All outcomes for an Irish home owner, I hope everyone does well but I feel ireland has spread itself too thin and hyped property too much, people forget it's easy to leave

Wanderer78 · 16-06-2019 6:52am

padz wrote:

Follow up post, unfortunately you'll end up with the people who you want to leave won't leave and the rest paying mortgages and the state supporting the REITs, unfortunately this is the worst of All outcomes for an Irish home owner, I hope everyone does well but I feel ireland has spread itself too thin and hyped property too much, people forget it's easy to leave

Its probably easier for the capital or money to leave

tobsey · 16-06-2019 10:59am

padz wrote: »

anecdotally from personal conversation recently, there's a lot of people saving, bedding down before planning on leaving, have a lot of forign non EU aqetances too who have said they've saved enough or sent enough home to India (they've enough for a villa) And are leaving, just sharing, definitely feels like Ireland's on the slide in that regard, I'm sure sales will happen but could become repo's in a year or two If banks aren't careful

Edit... I'm sure you all know the term pump and dump, I was joking with forign friends who feel Yes theyve made enough from Ireland and are ready to dump, it's an unfortunate thing of having an open economy but this is what you get

I’ve been involved in a few recruitment campaigns in the IT sector recently and judging by the amount of applications from India there’s plenty more coming to replace them.

Blueshoe · 16-06-2019 11:59am

tobsey wrote: »

I’ve been involved in a few recruitment campaigns in the IT sector recently and judging by the amount of applications from India there’s plenty more coming to replace them.

That's a shame. Are there no suitable Irish candidates?

Sunrise_Sunset · 16-06-2019 12:36pm

Average time to close a sale after going sale agreed? I realise this varies but if no issues arise and things are quite straight forward, what would be the current average closing time when in a chain? 8-10 weeks?

UsBus · 16-06-2019 1:06pm

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

Average time to close a sale after going sale agreed? I realise this varies but if no issues arise and things are quite straight forward, what would be the current average closing time when in a chain? 8-10 weeks?

I've yet to experience a straight forward sale.
After going sale agreed, you need two solicitors to communicate regularly and efficiently with each other which I find they have difficulty in doing.
Usually the fax machine still gets the blame...ðŸ¥´

tobsey · 16-06-2019 1:28pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

That's a shame. Are there no suitable Irish candidates?

To be honest the candidates still based in India aren’t usually great. We got a few already based here who are good. I’d say Irish people are making up maybe 20% of the applicants and while they’re not usually the worst, they’re not always the best. We’d regularly get 100 applicants, 20% irish, we’d interview around 12 and maybe 3 or 4 are Irish. Often we can’t even fill the role. Of those maybe 2 will get an offer, sometimes 1 or none, then they’ve got a better offer elsewhere anyway.

Blueshoe · 16-06-2019 1:31pm

tobsey wrote: »

To be honest the candidates still based in India aren’t usually great. We got a few already based here who are good. I’d say Irish people are making up maybe 20% of the applicants and while they’re not usually the worst, they’re not always the best. We’d regularly get 100 applicants, 20% irish, we’d interview around 12 and maybe 3 or 4 are Irish. Often we can’t even fill the role. Of those maybe 2 will get an offer, sometimes 1 or none, then they’ve got a better offer elsewhere anyway.

Did I read that correctly. You advertise a role and only 20% of the applicants are Irish!

snotboogie · 16-06-2019 1:40pm

padz wrote: »

anecdotally from personal conversation recently, there's a lot of people saving, bedding down before planning on leaving, have a lot of forign non EU aqetances too who have said they've saved enough or sent enough home to India (they've enough for a villa) And are leaving, just sharing, definitely feels like Ireland's on the slide in that regard, I'm sure sales will happen but could become repo's in a year or two If banks aren't careful

Edit... I'm sure you all know the term pump and dump, I was joking with forign friends who feel Yes theyve made enough from Ireland and are ready to dump, it's an unfortunate thing of having an open economy but this is what you get

Non anecdotally net migration figures are going through the roof.

tobsey · 16-06-2019 3:16pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

Did I read that correctly. You advertise a role and only 20% of the applicants are Irish!

Yeah give or take. They’re high skilled IT positions. We don’t produce enough graduates, and haven’t over the years. Often though we do find that when we have it whittled down to the last few you’re likely to have close to 50/50 ratio of Irish to no Irish. That’s a lot to do with the fact they understand where they stand in relation to the position. We rarely see under qualified Irish apply, but we’d see much higher numbers in the non-Irish applicants.

OwlsZat · 16-06-2019 8:18pm

padz wrote: »

anecdotally from personal conversation recently, there's a lot of people saving, bedding down before planning on leaving, have a lot of forign non EU aqetances too who have said they've saved enough or sent enough home to India (they've enough for a villa) And are leaving, just sharing, definitely feels like Ireland's on the slide in that regard, I'm sure sales will happen but could become repo's in a year or two If banks aren't careful

Edit... I'm sure you all know the term pump and dump, I was joking with forign friends who feel Yes theyve made enough from Ireland and are ready to dump, it's an unfortunate thing of having an open economy but this is what you get

Gas literally this week my barber said she was heading back to Poland after 7 years. Said everything is too expensive and the time was right to return.

Fan of Netflix · 16-06-2019 8:25pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Gas literally this week my barber said she was heading back to Poland after 7 years. Said everything is too expensive and the time was right to return.

Polish economy is improving these days. There isn't many Eastern Europeans coming in anymore. Mostly non EU migration. When Brexit happens, and also the Balkan countries join the EU (due 2025) that will change again I'd imagine.

Wanderer78 · 16-06-2019 8:34pm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Polish economy is improving these days. There isn't many Eastern Europeans coming in anymore. Mostly non EU migration. When Brexit happens, and also the Balkan countries join the EU (due 2025) that will change again I'd imagine.

will the eu still exist at that stage?

JJJackal · 16-06-2019 8:37pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

will the eu still exist at that stage?

Brexit may not go well for Britain - indeed it may go very badly - in which case the EU will definitely exist

Wanderer78 · 16-06-2019 8:44pm

JJJackal wrote: »

Brexit may not go well for Britain - indeed it may go very badly - in which case the EU will definitely exist

with the economies of a couple of fairly major eu countries not looking too hot, particularly italy, lets also not forget the rise of the right in another few eu countries, the eu isnt looking all that stable

Fan of Netflix · 16-06-2019 8:49pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

will the eu still exist at that stage?

Yes it definitely will, economically there is no other way for Europe to compete against the likes of China, India and of course the USA.

snotboogie · 16-06-2019 8:57pm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Polish economy is improving these days. There isn't many Eastern Europeans coming in anymore. Mostly non EU migration. When Brexit happens, and also the Balkan countries join the EU (due 2025) that will change again I'd imagine.

2018 was an insane year for “rest of the world” it will be interesting to see if it holds up. EU 15 migration has also quietly been steadily increasing, I don’t have the country breakdown but I’d imagine the Southern European countries are driving it. Despite anecdotal evidence here EU 13 migration had it’s strongest year since the recession in 2018. The April 2019 population stats will be very interesting when they are released in September. I predict another spike from 64k net to about 90k net but I’m an amateur and the actual numbers will be out soon...

Roberto_gas · 16-06-2019 9:40pm

Still waiting on other side of the fence..I love having flexibility to immigrate if a big downturn comes and probably buy at some stage hopefully in cash and come back over !!

Remember downturn is an opportunity in a lifetime and although you cannot time market at least you can make the most of it...missed it last time not making same mistake again !!

ECO_Mental · 16-06-2019 10:55pm

My two cents....(From a Cork perspective)

There is deffo a cooling off down here. I'm planning to sell this August/September and build a house next year and from talking to all estate agents down here they are saying things arent moving as quickly as a year ago. Also anything over 400k is VERY slow to shift...

IMO the market between 400-550 there isnt much value here (and not a lot out there) the quality of houses priced in this range are not very good also. Mostly old family homes that will need 100k+ to modernize and people over reaching with their asking prices. I'm looking for a 4 bed bigger house and the one or two that have been priced reasonably are snapped up though.

Facts are I live in a big housing estate with type A, B, C etc houses. One of these Type C houses (a 3 bed semi) went for 395k late last year it was decorated very well. But my neighbour now has his house on sale and he has only one offer of €340k....I know they are not decorated as nicely but still that's a big difference.

I think I missed the boat again:o:o considering I bought this place in 2006 I am still down big time. But hey its my family home and not an investment property

Bbborris · 17-06-2019 5:25pm

We just had an offer accepted for a house in West Dublin, 45k below original asking. Mature well sought after area. Probably was a tad over priced originally, but in my opinion shows the market has peaked.

hots · 17-06-2019 5:30pm

Bbborris wrote: »

We just had an offer accepted for a house in West Dublin, 45k below original asking. Mature well sought after area. Probably was a tad over priced originally, but in my opinion shows the market has peaked.

Must be Castleknock or similar, people got very excited there with some of the APs and anyone within a million miles of the village were expecting to hit mad prices.

Wildly Boaring · 17-06-2019 5:57pm

Bbborris wrote: »

We just had an offer accepted for a house in West Dublin, 45k below original asking. Mature well sought after area. Probably was a tad over priced originally, but in my opinion shows the market has peaked.

We had an offer 20k over asking on our place.

Asking prices and their relationship to actual prices have no bearing on peaks

4ensic15 · 17-06-2019 6:00pm

Wildly Boaring wrote: »

We had an offer 20k over asking on our place.

Asking prices and their relationship to actual prices have no bearing on peaks

I heard that before. In 2006!

JJJackal · 17-06-2019 6:28pm

4ensic15 wrote: »

I heard that before. In 2006!

If all asking prices were going up it would be a disaster.

A healthy market should have most selling plus or minus 5%.

smurgen · 17-06-2019 6:31pm

ECO_Mental wrote: »

My two cents....(From a Cork perspective)

There is deffo a cooling off down here. I'm planning to sell this August/September and build a house next year and from talking to all estate agents down here they are saying things arent moving as quickly as a year ago. Also anything over 400k is VERY slow to shift...

IMO the market between 400-550 there isnt much value here (and not a lot out there) the quality of houses priced in this range are not very good also. Mostly old family homes that will need 100k+ to modernize and people over reaching with their asking prices. I'm looking for a 4 bed bigger house and the one or two that have been priced reasonably are snapped up though.

Facts are I live in a big housing estate with type A, B, C etc houses. One of these Type C houses (a 3 bed semi) went for 395k late last year it was decorated very well. But my neighbour now has his house on sale and he has only one offer of €340k....I know they are not decorated as nicely but still that's a big difference.

I think I missed the boat again:o:o considering I bought this place in 2006 I am still down big time. But hey its my family home and not an investment property

As someone with the means to buy i think I'll keeo renting.noticing a big cooling off also in cork and I'll save myself a bomb in the longer term.

Bluefoam · 17-06-2019 6:37pm

smurgen wrote: »

As someone with the means to buy i think I'll keeo renting.noticing a big cooling off also in cork and I'll save myself a bomb in the longer term.

I actually agree with you point of view... not thet I think you are right, I just agree that you can hold that point of view and do as you wish.

However, I find a certain smugness in the way you put it... Each to their own...

Eric Cartman · 17-06-2019 6:57pm

awec wrote: »

What sort of cooling off are you seeing in Cork?

many have accepted that a lot of properties have now hit the cap that the central bank limits (for once something done right) allow for. See a lot of properties put up for ambitious prices in recent months being shown with 20-40k drops beside them on daft. Particularly larger detached houses outside cities where they arent a great rental investment. I wouldnt necissarily use the word 'cooling' but we're certainly hitting the ceiling now. Many people playing a wage inflation game to try and get over those limits but its just not happening, wage stagnation and those central bank rules are holding us pretty firm here for a while yet.

Property Market 2019

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