Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

Options
1…457910…30

Comments

  • Options
    #182
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    TTLF wrote: »
    In fairness, the BBC goes off the latest ECM run, so it's not really worth the time when the ECM moves and shifts a lot.

    They don't
    They get their forecast material from meteogroup who also provide the analysis
    Its often one run behind


  • Options
    #183
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    They don't
    They get their forecast material from meteogroup who also provide the analysis
    Its often one run behind

    ah, alright. My thinking about it was that "huge fail" where it was showing those mild south westerlies when it was an outlier ECM run, but that would make more sense. :)


  • Options
    #184
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Supercell wrote: »
    That may be so GL, and I definitely value your input, but long experience here is that these charts spell sleety rain at best in my back garden! (coastal Wicklow/Dublin), would love for that to be wrong though.

    Ah, that's different, east coast, all bets are off in that strong southeasterly.


  • Options
    #185
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    TTLF wrote: »
    In fairness, the BBC goes off the latest ECM run, so it's not really worth the time when the ECM moves and shifts a lot.

    The BBC used to be supplied by the UKMO who use the ECM. However, around three years ago, the BBC struck up a contract with Meteogroup for their forecasts.

    The UKMO are now just an online presence themselves, don't think they feed any UK TV station with forecasts?


  • Options
    #186
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,324 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Winds do turn briefly more NE overnight tonight, maybe some ninja snow for Dublin and Wicklow tomorrow morning. Some areas might get some streamer action and do well, lets see.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #187
    Bodjhrjekekr
    Registered Users Posts: 147 ✭✭Bodjhrjekekr


    Looking good for snow Thursday in Cork County inland, or am I wrong?


  • Options
    #188
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Massive downgrade in the ECM and GEM overnight, with the snow breaking up half way up the country. They have more focus on an pre-frontal snow band overnight Friday night into Saturday.

    The GFS is still full gung-ho and the ICON is somewhere in between.

    There were GFS indications yesterday that maybe that frontal dynamics would be breaking up the precip as it crosses the country, the 00Z has backtracked on that a little and shows the front still active at 9 pm on Thursday (negative Q-vector div. values below). The other models may be showing that breaking up, but this parameter is not available for them as it is for the GFS.

    Still a lot of variability for now, so it's anybody's guess what will happen. The ICON is probably the most likely.

    http://www1.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS/2021021200_11.gif

    2021021200_11.gif


  • Options
    #189
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Bodjhrjekekr wrote: »
    Looking good for snow Thursday in Cork County inland, or am I wrong?

    We’re definitely in with a shout. Tomorrow evening we should have a better idea either way.


  • Options
    #190
    D9Male
    Registered Users Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    Unfortunately, 6z so far (out to Saturday afternoon) gives broad support to the Atlantic breaking through after the snow event on Thursday.

    For Thursday into Friday morning, I think the snow will be marginal for those close to the south and east coast, and for those in Munster (apart from Tipperary and north Cork), I don't think there will be much lying snow as the south-easterly veering southerly winds will kick.

    https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20210209/06/102/h500slp.png

    That is if the 6z verifies, of course.


  • Options
    #191
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,523 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    They don't
    They get their forecast material from meteogroup who also provide the analysis
    Its often one run behind

    They do BB for their extended. It was funny a week ago when they used that single ECM outlier showing a long fetched mild southwesterly airflow for 10 February. That worked out for them...

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #192
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Despite everything, actual 12 and 24-hour precipitation totals have been negligible in Ireland and the UK. Some parts of northern England have 10 cm of snow cover and yet registered near 0 mm of liquid equivalent in the past 24 hours!

    542675.png

    542676.png


  • Options
    #193
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Met Éireann update going for big accumulations for north and east up to Friday morning
    D9Male wrote: »
    Unfortunately, 6z so far (out to Saturday afternoon) gives broad support to the Atlantic breaking through after the snow event on Thursday.

    For Thursday into Friday morning, I think the snow will be marginal for those close to the south and east coast, and for those in Munster (apart from Tipperary and north Cork), I don't think there will be much lying snow as the south-easterly veering southerly winds will kick.

    https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20210209/06/102/h500slp.png

    That is if the 6z verifies, of course.


  • Options
    #194
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    They do BB for their extended. It was funny a week ago when they used that single ECM outlier showing a long fetched mild southwesterly airflow for 10 February. That worked out for them...

    Meteo must have had it in the script!
    The meteo analysis does feed them the options and it's often a run behind by the looks of things
    Thats not deliberate, it happens on RTE too,it's just timing and preparation with the deadlines of broadcast I think


  • Options
    #195
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,486 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Some big enough changes locally on some models for the medium post Friday with the Atlantic getting through. Thursday and Friday themselves still look OK for decent amounts of snow in the Eastern half of the country in particular but also north Connaught and parts of Ulster.

    I'll wait until this evening to verify this is now conclusive in terms of milder air gradually making it's way right across the country by Saturday. Certainly looks that way.

    Light to moderate snow here atm. 0c.


  • Options
    #196
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Despite everything, actual 12 and 24-hour precipitation totals have been negligible in Ireland and the UK. Some parts of northern England have 10 cm of snow cover and yet registered near 0 mm of liquid equivalent in the past 24 hours!

    542675.png

    542676.png

    My brother in South East London (just about Kent) is annoying me with pretty impressive snow / falling snow photos this morning


  • Options
    #197
    D9Male
    Registered Users Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    Slashermcguirk wrote: »
    Met reann update going for big accumulations for north and east up to Friday morning

    They don't say big. Or even significant.


  • Options
    #198
    DellyBelly
    Registered Users Posts: 2,868 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    D9Male wrote: »
    They don't say big. Or even significant.

    So no need to stock up on the aul Bread then...ha ha ha


  • Options
    #199
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Accumulations leading to hazardous conditions pretty much suggests big to be fair
    D9Male wrote: »
    They don't say big. Or even significant.


  • Options
    #200
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    When they all form a consensus at this stage, it's unlikely they will flip back. The fact there is no scatter in the ensembles is a bad sign. I was kind of expecting these downgrades, it just sort of fits how this winter has gone so far. Still hopefully some places will get a decent snowfall before the milder air wins out.


  • Options
    #201
    D9Male
    Registered Users Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    Slashermcguirk wrote: »
    Accumulations leading to hazardous conditions pretty much suggests big to be fair

    I mean you clearly read what you want to read.

    You don't need a big accumulation to lead to hazardous conditions.

    They also say sleet, which is what I think will be seen on most of the coastal parts of the country.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #202
    Zogabomb
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Zogabomb


    D9Male wrote: »
    I mean you clearly read what you want to read.

    You don't need a big accumulation to lead to hazardous conditions.

    They also say sleet, which is what I think will be seen on most of the coastal parts of the country.

    In fairness, 5cm is significant at this stage. Fact is heavy snow is probably as likely as heavy sleet at this stage so both point of views are equally valid.


  • Options
    #203
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    D9Male wrote: »
    I mean you clearly read what you want to read.

    You don't need a big accumulation to lead to hazardous conditions.

    They also say sleet, which is what I think will be seen on most of the coastal parts of the country.

    Its just semantics really
    They just don't know
    I don't either


  • Options
    #204
    D9Male
    Registered Users Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    Absolutely, I have an expectation (based on the models and the Met Office update) that inland areas will see decent accumulations of snow.

    Unfortunately though, I think a lot of populated areas near the coast are going to see a lot of sleet and a wintry mix.


  • Options
    #205
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Danno wrote: »

    The UKMO are now just an online presence themselves, don't think they feed any UK TV station with forecasts?

    I think Channel 5 do


  • Options
    #206
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Let’s agree to disagree.
    D9Male wrote: »
    I mean you clearly read what you want to read.

    You don't need a big accumulation to lead to hazardous conditions.

    They also say sleet, which is what I think will be seen on most of the coastal parts of the country.


  • Options
    #207
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    I knew last night's models were over doing the precipitation for Thursday. While today's models are much in line with the outcome for Thursday. Nothing significant nor a memorable event. 5-10cm in places north of Mayo to Wicklow line.


  • Options
    #208
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Massive downgrade in the ECM and GEM overnight, with the snow breaking up half way up the country. They have more focus on an pre-frontal snow band overnight Friday night into Saturday.

    The GFS is still full gung-ho and the ICON is somewhere in between.

    There were GFS indications yesterday that maybe that frontal dynamics would be breaking up the precip as it crosses the country, the 00Z has backtracked on that a little and shows the front still active at 9 pm on Thursday (negative Q-vector div. values below). The other models may be showing that breaking up, but this parameter is not available for them as it is for the GFS.

    Still a lot of variability for now, so it's anybody's guess what will happen. The ICON is probably the most likely.

    http://www1.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS/2021021200_11.gif

    2021021200_11.gif

    I like the way you use Massive for the negative. Good :p:)to keep a healthy somber mood. :)


  • Options
    #209
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    I can see us having more accumulation depths tonight from showers in the midlands than from that measly front approaching.


  • Options
    #210
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,120 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I’m not surprised that Met Eireann are only going for up to 5cm of snowfall on Thursday. The downgrades have been very substantial overnight.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #211
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I’m not surprised that Met Eireann are only going for up to 5cm of snowfall on Thursday. The downgrades have been very substantial overnight.

    Yes. The high pressure will act like a parasite on the front just sucking the like out of it


Advertisement