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BeatTheDrop

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  • 08-06-2018 11:41pm
    #1
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭


    Interesting offer from Powers https://beatthedrop.paddypower.com.

    Free (for most) to enter, it's like that tv box game with 'annoying Davina Mc Whatsherface'. Whereby you dump a wad of cash beside your Y/N answer.

    You can go all on with the virtual 1m, or % split the pot. On the 4th question currently, with a bit of a ropey start (1L, 2W) so just 234k left.

    Screen_Shot_2018_06_08_at_23_19_04.png

    The plan now is to offset 10k (insurance) on each question, and if all goes well, 14 questions later should have 74k net. The T&C's say you can keep whatever is left i.e. no longer 'virtual', at end of the challenge.

    The worst POA is to split the pot fully on each question which would leave only 1.9k by the Q10 mid-point. Not sure if there is a 'perfect strategy' for these things.

    Tommorows Q is 'draw at HT in the Aussie soccerball game?' Went 'no'.


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    #2
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Not ideal, down to the reserve for Q5/20 after the Aussies failed to perform.

    Q5 is Draw Swe vs Peru? = Yes. This event starts in 20mins.

    These friendly matches are more random than actual real competitions.
    Only another 16 to get right for the the reserve (no split pots anyomore).

    This 1st 20Q event is free, but think there are ticket prices also.


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    #3
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Success (0-0) in Sweden's game.
    On to the 6th question with 100% of the leftovers scraps.
    Q6/20. Aus v Bzl (3pm)

    Will the first goal be scored after the 26th Minute? (option = No).
    Brazil will likely score well within 20mins.


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    #4
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Nope, Brzl scores 1st on 36th, not <26th min.
    So reached as far as Q6/20. Not really as easy as it looks.

    Essentially to get this 'standard free go' '20Q into <1m',
    - you need to correctly predict a coin flip (50:50 market) for 20 consecutive flips.

    * When looking at the ratios, it becomes clearer as to the disadvantage:
    key: (T)icket (Q)uestions (P)ot

    10(T) on (Q)2 (the min) is (P)35 returned*

    So in reality, assuming these are 'evens odds' questions.
    The (T)10 compounded after x2(Q) should be 40 (10x2x2).
    Thus you’re only ever getting around 80%^.

    ^ Although some allowance for splitting option and skill/knowledge application.

    Sample options:

    T2 Q8 P340
    T2 Q11 P2,300
    T2 Q20 P790,000
    T5 Q8 P850
    T5 Q9 P1,650
    T10 Q2 P35
    T10 Q10 P475
    T20 Q5 P500
    T50 Q5 P1,250


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    #5
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    After the free go expired, have been having a few low-stakes goes at BTD, 3/4 winners so far.
    Typicaly aim for 5-6 questions, with low stakes still returing 400%ROI (well 300% with the 1 loss).

    kd6DENF.png

    The only snag is it's usually just 1Q per day (and only world cup based, so far).

    Tommorow's is Kor V Ger.
    Q: goal before 23mins = nope. 80% split approx.


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    #6
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Rosie Loud Eyelid wrote: »
    Tommorow's is Kor V Ger.
    Q: goal before 23mins = nope. 80% split approx.

    Correct, not until 66th min circa.

    Tommorows is Columbia,
    Q: Goal before 28min = nope, although Col may well do this so only 75% split pot.


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    #7
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Rosie Loud Eyelid wrote: »
    Correct, not until 66th min circa.

    Tommorows is Columbia,
    Q: Goal before 28min = nope, although Col may well do this so only 75% split pot.

    Correct: Not until 74mins.


    Next one is Eng v Bel: BTTS - will both teams score?

    Tricky...more of a 60% spilt, undecided, but veering on no.
    Their potential options forward are:

    OPT: Col - Swe - Spa - Bzl
    OPT: Jap - Bzl - Fra - Spa

    Solution: Pass. Due to the unusal strategic nature of this match.


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    #8
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Another good run again 6/6.

    Actually went (last minuite before kick-off) for 'no' on the Eng game, luckily.

    smilgBZ.png


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