Is it the right time to buy? Financial crash

masterboy123 · 03-11-2018 10:59am #1

We are a couple and both of us are working full time, in Limerick.

We are looking to get a home and settle. There are new builts home launching in these months but prices are in the range of 280,000 euros for semi detached 3 bedroom house.

Few colleagues saying there will be a crash around Brexit time period and these houses will be worth 200,000, and so advising to wait until mid 2019. I know it's a very difficult question to ask as no one can firmly say when exactly are we going to face another financial crash.

Anyone got opinion/views?

EriT · 03-11-2018 11:07am

It's all a guessing game , in theory brexit could up house value in several ways .e.g jobs moving from UK or people emigrating from UK to Ireland .A couple of people in my office have moved from UK to Ireland this year, they are all now starting to look to buy

The_Honeybadger · 03-11-2018 11:21am

If you are happy that you want to live in limerick long term, your employment is secure and you can afford the repayments on a house that suits you then it’s the right time.

Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict what will happen with any degree of certainty. Yes it would be a sickener if the houses you are looking at drop to €200k and you’ve already paid €280k but if they do will banks be lending for mortgages or will Brexit lead to another credit squeeze? Nobody knows. When houses dropped the last time it was only investors and cash buyers that benefitted in any meaningful way.

drunkmonkey · 03-11-2018 2:18pm

It seems like a lot of the 3 bed semi in Limerick suppose it all depends on the area but here's a 5 bed for 190k https://www.daft.ie/11939890

03-11-2018 2:58pm

Your colleagues have no idea what the houses will be worth around Brexit time.

If you can afford and you like the place then buy.

masterboy123 · 03-11-2018 3:42pm

Thanks for the link.
We are looking for a new buy or a house which has good energy rating. Tired of paying high bills.
My friend got A3 energy rating house and paid 400 annually for heating.

Thanks everyone for their opinions

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It seems like a lot of the 3 bed semi in Limerick suppose it all depends on the area but here's a 5 bed for 190k https://www.daft.ie/11939890

LiamoSail · 03-11-2018 4:10pm

masterboy123 wrote: »

We are a couple and both of us are working full time, in Limerick.

We are looking to get a home and settle. There are new builts home launching in these months but prices are in the range of 280,000 euros for semi detached 3 bedroom house.

Few colleagues saying there will be a crash around Brexit time period and these houses will be worth 200,000, and so advising to wait until mid 2019. I know it's a very difficult question to ask as no one can firmly say when exactly are we going to face another financial crash.

Anyone got opinion/views?

Are your collages experienced economists or speculators, with a track record of predicting and profiting from market fluctuations?

If so, I would pay heed to their advice and take a short position as they no doubt have on the back of their own detailed analysis.

If not, I would consider just why it is that these great minds are not employed in investment or market regulatory roles

tvjunki · 03-11-2018 9:54pm

masterboy123 wrote: »

We are a couple and both of us are working full time, in Limerick.

We are looking to get a home and settle. There are new builts home launching in these months but prices are in the range of 280,000 euros for semi detached 3 bedroom house.

Few colleagues saying there will be a crash around Brexit time period and these houses will be worth 200,000, and so advising to wait until mid 2019. I know it's a very difficult question to ask as no one can firmly say when exactly are we going to face another financial crash.

Anyone got opinion/views?

Seems a lot for a 3bed semi in Limerick. You could have a look at houses a little bit outside the city with land and see what you can get for your money. You could buy an older house and retrofit and you should get similar bills and have a better built house.

If there was a crash then chances of getting a mortgage would be a lot less. We don't know what will happen in a few years time as it depends on Government policy and Europe. Also bear in mind the ecb rate and interest rates? How your secure are your jobs? You have to look at all these things and that should help you decide.

masterboy123 · 03-11-2018 10:23pm

Appreciate your in depth response.

We did consider looking at older houses with C3 energy rating. But cost of a good insulation, renewal of bathroom and kitchen are going to cost in the range of 25k-30k. Plus no structural warranty on older houses. These are the reasons we opted to consider a new built only. Maybe I am wrong.

Our jobs are not permanent ones but there is a stability in the health sector.
Interest rate are in the range of 2.95 to 3.15% variable, LTV 80%.

tvjunki wrote: »

Seems a lot for a 3bed semi in Limerick. You could have a look at houses a little bit outside the city with land and see what you can get for your money. You could buy an older house and retrofit and you should get similar bills and have a better built house.

If there was a crash then chances of getting a mortgage would be a lot less. We don't know what will happen in a few years time as it depends on Government policy and Europe. Also bear in mind the ecb rate and interest rates? How your secure are your jobs? You have to look at all these things and that should help you decide.

4ensic15 · 03-11-2018 10:43pm

masterboy123 wrote: »

Appreciate your in depth response.

We did consider looking at older houses with C3 energy rating. But cost of a good insulation, renewal of bathroom and kitchen are going to cost in the range of 25k-30k. Plus no structural warranty on older houses. These are the reasons we opted to consider a new built only. Maybe I am wrong.

.

If an older house has stood up for several decades there is not likely to be a structural issue. Buying second hand means things like gardens established, floor coverings and curtains come with the house. Many new houses require a shed or other store to be built. There is also likely to be a more established community in an older estates. Many facilities will have been established such as street lighting etc. Also in newer areas, there is a time lag between the building of houses and other facilities such as shops, schools etc. Buying a new house just to save a few quid on insulation may be a false economy.

drunkmonkey · 03-11-2018 11:18pm

Looking at the prices around limerick, these houses seem like a lot of money, in any downtown they'll take a large haircut. There's loads of big family homes around limerick for a lot less.
Take this for example, https://www.daft.ie/limerick/houses-for-sale/corbally/22-sil-na-habhainn-mill-road-corbally-corbally-limerick-1911316/
It's going to cost more to heat but 50k buys a hell of a lot of insulation and oil. The wooden floors would probably cost you 20k to add to the new house.
4ensic15 hit the nail on the head. The way your thinking is a false economy.

The thing about an old house is you can see the cracks, the shiny new house they've yet to appear.

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 9:23am

The house link you have posted is at an area where there are alot of antisocial activity (thugs throwing eggs, etc) and prone to flooding, that explains it's lower price.

If someone is getting a house in an established community then it's very important to know what kind of activity goes on there at night times. Plus they would know you're new in their area and could be a victim of passive bullying.

Renovating the house may cost less than a new house, but you need to know locals workers who won't charge you excessively to repair floors, furnish a new bathroom, kitchen, etc. Plus the time you need to take off work to sort out things to refurbish an old house. There isn't a structural warranty in an old built.

So overall there are both pros and cons of new vs old built.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Looking at the prices around limerick, these houses seem like a lot of money, in any downtown they'll take a large haircut. There's loads of big family homes around limerick for a lot less.
Take this for example, https://www.daft.ie/limerick/houses-for-sale/corbally/22-sil-na-habhainn-mill-road-corbally-corbally-limerick-1911316/
It's going to cost more to heat but 50k buys a hell of a lot of insulation and oil. The wooden floors would probably cost you 20k to add to the new house.
4ensic15 hit the nail on the head. The way your thinking is a false economy.

The thing about an old house is you can see the cracks, the shiny new house they've yet to appear.

drunkmonkey · 04-11-2018 12:05pm

I think you've made a lot of assumptions there, has that house ever flooded? As for antisocial behaviour your looking at castletroy there was practically a riot there the other night, the area is packed with students, the last time I stayed in castletroy I was sleeping on a mates couch and some randomer jumped in the window. Also know of another chap who went into the wrong house one night, there was a baby upstairs and he tried to quiten it and get out of there before something went wrong, it didn't end well but nobody harmed.

The house I linked to isn't in dire need of refurbishment, why would you go messing with timber floors, the new house looks like laminate everywhere or else it's all tiles neither of them desirable. Also you've 2 extra rooms which will be handy if you ever decide to rent it.

I think your way over thinking the structural guarantee, the older house doesn't need it as any faults will be apparent by now.

I think for the money there asking the 3 bed is bad value the fixtures in the show house look a bit meh, I very much doubt any of those toilets or kitchen are top quality. It's your money though.

The house i linked to was just an example there's plenty more near where your looking. The cons your seeing I'm not. If the new house was a lot cheaper I'd agree with you.

Ursus Horribilis · 04-11-2018 1:06pm

masterboy123 wrote: »

If someone is getting a house in an established community then it's very important to know what kind of activity goes on there at night times. Plus they would know you're new in their area and could be a victim of passive bullying.

If you buy into a brand new estate, you don't know yet what the place will be at night. You don't know who's buying the other houses (county council?) and who'll be living in them. With an established community, you'll have a better idea of what the area is like. When I was househunting, someone advised me to see what the kids living in an estate were like.
As for this passive bullying you speak about, I have no idea what this is about.

Renovating the house may cost less than a new house, but you need to know locals workers who won't charge you excessively to repair floors, furnish a new bathroom, kitchen, etc. Plus the time you need to take off work to sort out things to refurbish an old house. There isn't a structural warranty in an old built.

There is no guarantee the builder will finish your house properly. I've heard enough stories of shortcuts being taken to trust those guys as far as I'd throw them. As for being at the mercy of "local workers", you'll just do what many other people do. They chat to their friends, colleagues and neighbours and find out who is decent and who isn't.

Would taking a few days off work really hurt if it's saving you thousands of euros? It sounds like you're dying to spend that €280k and the money is burning a hole in your pocket.

The people who've mentioned the old houses and their structures are right. If the house has stood for some years and is well built, you shouldn't have any particular troubles. Every house requires maintenance and you're going to find yourself picking up the phone to ring people to come out and do things to your house.

04-11-2018 1:20pm

4ensic15 wrote: »

If an older house has stood up for several decades there is not likely to be a structural issue. Buying second hand means things like gardens established, floor coverings and curtains come with the house. Many new houses require a shed or other store to be built. There is also likely to be a more established community in an older estates. Many facilities will have been established such as street lighting etc. Also in newer areas, there is a time lag between the building of houses and other facilities such as shops, schools etc. Buying a new house just to save a few quid on insulation may be a false economy.

Older houses will likely need lots of work too though if you want to have a modern place to live and older houses tend to be very badly designed with small rooms, badly layed out kitchens, no en-suites, no walk in wardrobes, lack of things like power sockets, Ethernet cabling therouhout etc etc and remedying this (for a person who wants a modern open plan type living space can be very expensive or impossible even.

Personally I find it hard to find any house that has a layout I like old or new (hence why I plan to have my own built) but at least new houses are somewhat better with their interior room design, use of space and general specs and facilities.

The_Honeybadger · 04-11-2018 1:29pm

OP if you are looking at an older house have a look at the Superhomes programme. 40-50% grants for the energy upgrade like windows, insulation heat pump etc. to bring it up to A rating it will bring the net cost of the refurb down and they look after the project management as well afaik. A colleague of mine got it done and the results are spectacular. It won’t pay for floors etc obviously but you are paying for those one way or another in a new house anyway.

Ursus Horribilis · 04-11-2018 1:38pm

I don't know where you're planning to buy but I strongly suggest you get talking to locals. I know a housing estate that was built in a field that regularly flooded. Guess what has happened there since? I've also heard of estates built on old dumps and sandpits that had cracks appear in their walls.

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 4:08pm

That particular area is on floodmaps.ie

I was tempted with this house, given one of the cheapest prices for a 5 bedrooms house. I knew something must be fishy with this property, as similar houses with poor interiors are going on higher prices. That house looks very near from inside and huge enough!

But then it will come at a cost that no insurance company is going to insure you!

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I think you've made a lot of assumptions there, has that house ever flooded? As for antisocial behaviour your looking at castletroy there was practically a riot there the other night, the area is packed with students, the last time I stayed in castletroy I was sleeping on a mates couch and some randomer jumped in the window. Also know of another chap who went into the wrong house one night, there was a baby upstairs and he tried to quiten it and get out of there before something went wrong, it didn't end well but nobody harmed.

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 4:11pm

I wasn't aware of this energy grant. I am going to look at it now.

And I agree with others that old houses are structurally strong enough, it was just poor insulation + damp in older homes that made me run away from these homes.

I appreciate advice given by everyone. Please feel free to add any further thoughts on New vs Old homes!

mickeyk wrote: »

OP if you are looking at an older house have a look at the Superhomes programme. 40-50% grants for the energy upgrade like windows, insulation heat pump etc. to bring it up to A rating it will bring the net cost of the refurb down and they look after the project management as well afaik. A colleague of mine got it done and the results are spectacular. It won’t pay for floors etc obviously but you are paying for those one way or another in a new house anyway.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 04-11-2018 4:18pm

LiamoSail wrote: »

Are your collages experienced economists or speculators, with a track record of predicting and profiting from market fluctuations?

If so, I would pay heed to their advice and take a short position as they no doubt have on the back of their own detailed analysis.

If not, I would consider just why it is that these great minds are not employed in investment or market regulatory roles

Yes these guys really got the last recession right.

Ursus Horribilis · 04-11-2018 4:20pm

What age were the houses you rented that were damp and costly to heat?

04-11-2018 4:22pm

LiamoSail wrote: »

Are your collages experienced economists or speculators, with a track record of predicting and profiting from market fluctuations?

If so, I would pay heed to their advice and take a short position as they no doubt have on the back of their own detailed analysis.

If not, I would consider just why it is that these great minds are not employed in investment or market regulatory roles

being fair, find me twenty experts in the country that were telling people not to buy in early 2007

OP, if you are sure of meeting repayments and of staying in the house/area then that's the basis for a decision

Ursus Horribilis · 04-11-2018 4:38pm

To be fair, would there ever be 20 economists with regular access to the airwaves/newspapers? Back in 2007, most of the people cheerleading the boom were working for the banks who were throwing money at people. Austin Hughes of KBC and Dan McLaughlin of Bank of Ireland being two who spring to mind. David McWilliams, Morgan Kelly, Alan Aherne and Richard Curran were dissenting voices but they were shouted down by the likes of Bertie Ahern who wanted the economy to become boomier.

You are right though. If you believe you can afford the house and can withstand pay cuts/one of you losing your job/having kids, go right ahead. I just think that some of your reasons for automatically discounting second-hand houses to be very odd.

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 4:40pm

I wouldn't know the exact ages of those houses. But it costed us 180-200e in gas bill per month to heat 1 bedroom ovednight, living room for 4 hours/day.
That house developed mould too and owner said we need to open windows every day (in pure winters) for few minutes for proper ventilation to occur.

Didn't have a great experience plus health was effected.

Ursus Horribilis wrote: »

What age were the houses you rented that were damp and costly to heat?

Ursus Horribilis · 04-11-2018 4:44pm

That sounds like a badly built house but not a benchmark for all non-brand new houses. I bought a house from the 1990s in a nice established area. I've never had bills like that, nor damp issues.

The_Conductor · 04-11-2018 4:59pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It seems like a lot of the 3 bed semi in Limerick suppose it all depends on the area but here's a 5 bed for 190k https://www.daft.ie/11939890

You do realise this is in the middle of O'Malley Park?
Regeneration, or no regeneration- there is a damn good reason its 190k- and its vastly overpriced at that..........

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 5:05pm

If a 2 storey house says area size 103 sq. meters. Does that include living area size of both floor minus the garden area ?

drunkmonkey · 04-11-2018 7:57pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

You do realise this is in the middle of O'Malley Park?
Regeneration, or no regeneration- there is a damn good reason its 190k- and its vastly overpriced at that..........

We've been on about this one https://www.daft.ie/11911316

I said I don't know wheres good or bad in Limerick...I don't think anywhere anywhere in Limerick can demand 280k for a 3 bed semi.
I know he's thinking we'll live there forever but things change I'd be looking at something that's easy rent if you decide your first home isn't your final home in a few years. They say you don't get the house your want until your 3rd one. Think OP is stretching himself too far at 280k + interest.

tvjunki · 04-11-2018 8:21pm

masterboy123 wrote: »

I wouldn't know the exact ages of those houses. But it costed us 180-200e in gas bill per month to heat 1 bedroom ovednight, living room for 4 hours/day.
That house developed mould too and owner said we need to open windows every day (in pure winters) for few minutes for proper ventilation to occur.

Didn't have a great experience plus health was effected.

Houses do need to be aired. We like our houses really warm to the way they were years ago. We would layer clothes instead of putting the heating on or just having an open fire. Sounds to me you have little of no insulation. It depends on the house though.
My neighbour has oil heating and said the house was cold. She got the beads in the cavity walls and now she has mould in every room and vents in every room open.
If you get up in the morning you will see condensation on the windows. We omit moisture during the night. We put clothes to dry in houses,cooking with no door or window opening causes steam to go up stairs.
Think of it years ago we were having baths not showers 1 or 2times a day. Or we were having sink washes.

I had a tenant complain about mould. They did not put the heating on in the bedrooms, black mould appeared on the ceiling and corners of the room and windows. When they left I realised they never opened the windows. The windows were free moving when they moved in. I found out they never opened them. Vents were filled with tape. The moisture from cooking travelled upstairs.
When I lived ther my gas bill was 80 every 2months. When I put it back in my name it went to just over service charges. So no heating on and no windows open.
I am not saying you were the same but we do like homes to be warmer.

tvjunki · 04-11-2018 8:38pm

masterboy123 wrote: »

Appreciate your in depth response.

We did consider looking at older houses with C3 energy rating. But cost of a good insulation, renewal of bathroom and kitchen are going to cost in the range of 25k-30k. Plus no structural warranty on older houses. These are the reasons we opted to consider a new built only. Maybe I am wrong.

Our jobs are not permanent ones but there is a stability in the health sector.
Interest rate are in the range of 2.95 to 3.15% variable, LTV 80%.

If you think the 'home bond 'will help you it will not. If the builder has not paid into the fund as was in many cases in the boom you will get no cover.
Pyrite is an example that was not covered.
We bought new many years ago as we could not get what we wanted second hand. We had to find the money for flooring tiling carpets etc.

Neighbour had an issue with the plumbing. Contacted the builder as they were still in the estate. Builder would do nothing and the home bond would not help. Had to pay out of pocket in the end.
Get a good survey done on the house and that should help you decide.

If you buy a second hand house and gut it you can pay someone to manage the refurbishment it for you. Just reduce the price by the cost to refurbish. The seller might go with it.

boege · 04-11-2018 9:24pm

OP

As a Dub living 30 years in Limerick i have tracked property prices in the two cities for much of my time in Limerick. In general, Dublin prices were 50% dearer than Limerick house prices, except in the nauties boom and currently.

In my view Limerick house prices, in fact prices in most cites (except Galway), are good value currently. An Irish mate of mine who lives in Luxembourg agrees with this view and recently purchased 4 properties in Ireland, all outside Dublin. So without Brexit impact I would say buy - in fact I think prices will continue to go up in Limerick as the job market down here is very positive and looks like it will remain so for some time.

Your question was around the impact of Brexit. I suspect any Brexit outcome will take time to flow through to house prices. One concern being expressed by industry CEO's here in Limerick is that a lot of their product is shipped to the EU market via land-bridge across the UK. If UK hard brexits this could be very problematic for a lot of Irish manufacturing operations. The entire Food industry here is also very exposed as UK is our main market.

If you are really concerned then a simple solution is to rent and await the Brexit outcome, as we are only 5-6 months away.

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 10:14pm

Appreciate the personal comparison you have provided.

My rental lease is going to expire in June 2019, that's why we were looking to get something before February. It takes 3 months from the time you buy home and you settle into.
I am very sure the current 1000e rent will go up to 1200e in June 2019,unless there is a recession. And we don't want to pay 1200e a month on rent only. That's why we are looking for properties now. Have ~25% deposit ready.

We missed a property recently as another potential buyer offered the asking price. And I usually try to negotiate by 10-15% from the asking price.

Is it normal to negotiate price on new builts too?

boege wrote: »

OP

As a Dub living 30 years in Limerick i have tracked property prices in the two cities for much of my time in Limerick. In general, Dublin prices were 50% dearer than Limerick house prices, except in the nauties boom and currently.

In my view Limerick house prices, in fact prices in most cites (except Galway), are good value currently. An Irish mate of mine who lives in Luxembourg agrees with this view and recently purchased 4 properties in Ireland, all outside Dublin. So without Brexit impact I would say buy - in fact I think prices will continue to go up in Limerick as the job market down here is very positive and looks like it will remain so for some time.

Your question was around the impact of Brexit. I suspect any Brexit outcome will take time to flow through to house prices. One concern being expressed by industry CEO's here in Limerick is that a lot of their product is shipped to the EU market via land-bridge across the UK. If UK hard brexits this could be very problematic for a lot of Irish manufacturing operations. The entire Food industry here is also very exposed as UK is our main market.

If you are really concerned then a simple solution is to rent and await the Brexit outcome, as we are only 5-6 months away.

masterboy123 · 04-11-2018 10:19pm

All new built at Annacotty are already sold at 270k last year. And this year prices have gone up again.
People are paying this much and even more, as there are limited houses and huge demands. Just look at the rental prices in Limerick. In the last 2 years there is a surge of 30% increment on rental cost in Limerick.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I said I don't know wheres good or bad in Limerick...I don't think anywhere anywhere in Limerick can demand 280k for a 3 bed semi.

drunkmonkey · 04-11-2018 11:57pm

I understand that I've a few friends making a killing in Limerick property the last few years. I'm not into property speculation/investing so haven't went near it bar a few low ball bids on the odd property.
I do think we're right back in the greater fool theroy mentality, in your head the race is on to buy before property prices run away on you. Your not worried about the real value just fomo is pushing you to act.
Your going to have bulls and bears in any market, I'm bearish on Limerick/Nationwide property prices as it's too easy make money right now. I could be wrong but I can see a day when some lad looks over his fence after buying a 3 bed semi for 180k and thinks thank God I didn't buy when those houses were going for 280k in the bubble.
We don't have a properly functioning property market. That's what makes me afraid for people buying right now.

GingerLily · 05-11-2018 12:32am

Do you need a mortgage? Banks don't like lending when house prices are decreasing, for several reasons, I cannot see you getting a mortgage in the next twelve months if there's a dip in the house price as large as your friends are suggesting.

masterboy123 · 05-11-2018 1:01am

Yes, I have a mortgage approved and it's valid for another 10 months.

GingerLily wrote: »

Do you need a mortgage? Banks don't like lending when house prices are decreasing, for several reasons, I cannot see you getting a mortgage in the next twelve months if there's a dip in the house price as large as your friends are suggesting.

shenanagans · 05-11-2018 1:03am

I wouldn't listen to friends. They don't have a crystal ball.

What's the supply & demand like in Limerick for houses?? If there's high demand and short supply then prices are unlikely to drop like a stone. Particularly if jobs are plentiful in the city.

If you can afford to buy then buy now.

The only advice I would offer is focus an location as a first priority. In a recession good areas are going to hold in value better than less desirable areas. Plus if you buy in a good area you are more likely to be happy there long term.

05-11-2018 1:24am

shenanagans wrote: »

The only advice I would offer is focus an location as a first priority.

This is particularly true in Limerick.

Limerick is unusual compared to the other Irish cities in that it's not bound by the sea, it can develop out into North Tipp and Clare easily, hence there has never really been a shortage of places to develop houses. You can buy a good house in a good area in Limerick city, or a decent outlying town like Ennis or Nenagh for a fairly reasonable price. The question is what's important to you in where you buy? I would find Raheen, Annacotty or Castletroy too far from the city centre but that's my preference. If I was to live that far out, I would rather live farther out altogether.

The recession hit Limerick particularly badly (circa 45,000 people of its total population of 200,000 were unemployed in 2009) but it's improved considerably since then. It is particularly vulnerable to external shocks though so Trump or Brexit could easily kill the recovery it's experiencing. There's just no way of knowing.

Villa05 · 05-11-2018 2:41am

masterboy123 wrote:

We did consider looking at older houses with C3 energy rating. But cost of a good insulation, renewal of bathroom and kitchen are going to cost in the range of 25k-30k. Plus no structural warranty on older houses. These are the reasons we opted to consider a new built only. Maybe I am wrong.

I'd go for an older house before new build for the reasons already outlined on this thread
See crumbling blocks in Donegal, pyrite in leinster unsafe schools. Skills shortage etc

masterboy123 wrote:

The house link you have posted is at an area where there are alot of antisocial activity (thugs throwing eggs, etc) and prone to flooding, that explains it's lower price.

Get some local knowledge it may well be on the maps but as far as I am aware only 2 houses on that estate in mill road are prone to flooding

Deleted User wrote:

being fair, find me twenty experts in the country that were telling people not to buy in early 2007

Very often the funder of the message is more important than the message. Most economists worked for outlets that depended on the bubble continuing

The_Conductor wrote:

You do realise this is in the middle of O'Malley Park? Regeneration, or no regeneration- there is a damn good reason its 190k- and its vastly overpriced at that..........

It's in Garryowen/Singland that area is ok decent working class. Still a little overpriced, but it will sell in today's market

WillieMason · 05-11-2018 3:02am

boege wrote: »

OP

As a Dub living 30 years in Limerick i have tracked property prices in the two cities for much of my time in Limerick. In general, Dublin prices were 50% dearer than Limerick house prices, except in the nauties boom and currently.

In my view Limerick house prices, in fact prices in most cites (except Galway), are good value currently. An Irish mate of mine who lives in Luxembourg agrees with this view and recently purchased 4 properties in Ireland, all outside Dublin. So without Brexit impact I would say buy - in fact I think prices will continue to go up in Limerick as the job market down here is very positive and looks like it will remain so for some time.

Your question was around the impact of Brexit. I suspect any Brexit outcome will take time to flow through to house prices. One concern being expressed by industry CEO's here in Limerick is that a lot of their product is shipped to the EU market via land-bridge across the UK. If UK hard brexits this could be very problematic for a lot of Irish manufacturing operations. The entire Food industry here is also very exposed as UK is our main market.

If you are really concerned then a simple solution is to rent and await the Brexit outcome, as we are only 5-6 months away.

Is Galway expensive??

Villa05 · 05-11-2018 8:17am

WillieMason wrote:

Is Galway expensive??

It's the most expensive city in Ireland when measured by house price to local income.
At the bottom of the crash, There was very little between prices in Limerick city and Galway city

The_Conductor · 05-11-2018 8:51am

WillieMason wrote: »

Is Galway expensive??

Staggeringly so- in the case of Galway city.
Galway regional and county- are a lot more reasonable- however, as with anywhere- price is determined by location.
If you're working in Galway city- you're in for a shock at just how appalling the traffic can be- its up there with the worst traffic Dublin can offer.

Also- the prices in Galway city- don't even seem to have any relationship with local incomes- there is a complete and utter divorce. Areas of Galway city are on parr with D4 pricewise.

terrydel · 05-11-2018 3:21pm

Jazlynn Easy Hurdler wrote: »

Older houses will likely need lots of work too though if you want to have a modern place to live and older houses tend to be very badly designed with small rooms, badly layed out kitchens, no en-suites, no walk in wardrobes, lack of things like power sockets, Ethernet cabling therouhout etc etc and remedying this (for a person who wants a modern open plan type living space can be very expensive or impossible even.

Personally I find it hard to find any house that has a layout I like old or new (hence why I plan to have my own built) but at least new houses are somewhat better with their interior room design, use of space and general specs and facilities.

Not everyone wants a modern, open plan living 'space' middle class utopia tho.

davo2001 · 05-11-2018 4:04pm

Edit: ignore

daithi7 · 05-11-2018 4:20pm

I agree with other posters here in general, that if it's the 'right time' for ye to buy, then ye should probably buy I.e. don't worry about trying to time the market, as no one really can.

However, I would temper this advice with the news that average house prices have been falling this year, and this after ~ 7+ years of annual increases. (reference Sunday Times 2018 survey of national house prices by postal district) So we may be entering a dip in the market prices . If it were me, armed with that info, and seeing a few new players considering entering the mortgage market also e.g. an post, I would hold off over the next year and try to strike a really good deal with an increasingly desperate developer /vendor, funded by a cheaper mortgage by a new aggressive provider.

For instance, I know in my neighbourhood in Cork there are several houses for sale for over a year now, despite Cork house prices still being reported as rising (by ~4%) in that half year report on prices I referenced above .

There's no perfect way, but that's what I would do anyway.

05-11-2018 5:13pm

terrydel wrote: »

Not evening wants a modern, open plan living 'space' middle class utopia tho.

Fair enough, I personally just find the rooms are very small/badly laid out in most older houses, and even many newer houses but I do find that things are improving.

Ursus Horribilis · 05-11-2018 5:21pm

Some of the smallest houses I've been in were "starter homes" built during the first decade of this century. Ones where you'd step into a room and nearly be able to touch the back wall from the door.

myshirt · 05-11-2018 7:36pm

You can still buy in Limerick at less than the cost to build, so supply won't ramp up until that washes out. You are talking about the Bloomfield development. It's good value per square metre. Don't listen to pub talk, people haven't a clue what they are on about. If there was a drop of that nature you can be sure to f*ck you wouldn't be getting a loan so they may as well drop to 50 grand.

WillieMason · 06-11-2018 1:04am

myshirt wrote: »

You can still buy in Limerick at less than the cost to build, so supply won't ramp up until that washes out. You are talking about the Bloomfield development. It's good value per square metre. Don't listen to pub talk, people haven't a clue what they are on about. If there was a drop of that nature you can be sure to f*ck you wouldn't be getting a loan so they may as well drop to 50 grand.

What would you think a 3bed semi would cost to build??Thanks

WillieMason · 06-11-2018 1:13am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Staggeringly so- in the case of Galway city.
Galway regional and county- are a lot more reasonable- however, as with anywhere- price is determined by location.
If you're working in Galway city- you're in for a shock at just how appalling the traffic can be- its up there with the worst traffic Dublin can offer.

Also- the prices in Galway city- don't even seem to have any relationship with local incomes- there is a complete and utter divorce. Areas of Galway city are on parr with D4 pricewise.

Thanks. it is possibly the most expensive city in Ireland when you weigh up all the factors

Wanderer78 · 06-11-2018 7:47am

Another crash will occur at some stage, that could be anytime in the next 5 minutes, to the next 50 years, nobody knows when. There's no such thing as the perfect time to buy, just go for it when the time suits you, but be aware, there will be a downturn at some stage during your mortgage. Best of luck

Is it the right time to buy? Financial crash

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