Saturday 24th April

gazza1 wrote: »

Is today the day Nicholls lands his plot with Solo in the last at Sandown?
Hopefully it is, as I've backed him win only 13/2.

A pure hound, never won anything and still being talked about as some plot job for the last 2 years.

The horse is just no good .

Saturday 23rd April

1:55 Sandown - bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (WU)

Won in 2019 by Getaway Trump, it is no surprise to see another Paul Nicholls runner towards the head of the market this time around. Celestial Force has been an ultra-consistent performer this season and does come here with a great chance but he is by no means clear of the field. This is highlighted by the market having no clear favourite and plenty being at single figure odds, indicating just how competitive this race looks to be. Run over two miles, a turn of foot is often a key attribute and when this race was last run Getaway Trump gave an excellent leap at the second last and before kicking clear of the rest of the field. What made this performance even more impressive was the weight at which he achieved victory off, 11st 12lb, which this year is carried by Flic Ou Voyou for the Paul Nicholls team.

Beginning with the top-weight in this year’s contest, Flic Ou Voyou contested one of the hottest Cheltenham bumpers in 2019 as it was won by none other than Envoi Allen. Since then he has enjoyed quite a consistent time of it over hurdles, as in the 2019/20 season he finished no lower than 3rd even if he did not manage to get his head in front, which included some very good performances behind the likes of Edwardstone. Having wind surgery has really seen him come on a lot this season but despite a hat-trick at the beginning of the campaign, he hasn’t quite managed to make it in the top Graded races. He led on his last start at Kempton but was reeled back in by Pasvolsky and Straw Fan Jack, which means he would have to improve to be winning this off top weight. The quicker ground could be in his favour and he certainly wouldn’t be without a place chance. Pasvolsky does definitely fit the bill of an improving type for Chris Gordon and, even with an 8lb rise for his win at Kempton, he looks to be a major player on Saturday. He still gets 7lb from Flic Ou Voyou, whereas before he was only getting 5lb, so on that basis he looks to have a great chance.

Gylo carries the same colours as 2019 winner Getaway Trump and gets the application of a first-time tongue tie by Dan Skelton. He carries a nice low racing-weight and definitely prefers a quicker surface, which has been proven in his Flat form as much as his hurdling form. Rated 75 on the Flat he probably hasn’t quite reached the heights that was expected yet over hurdles, but there is certainly time considering he is only five-years-old and patience looks to be the key. He won a Class 4 race at Plumpton last time and, despite winning by four lengths, he did not win in the manner of a horse I would expect to feature in a race as competitive as this. The stable’s other contender does look to have a more promising chance though. Rockstar Ronnie looks like chasing is the long-term plan but he could still be capable of getting involved at Sandown. He is an improving type for the Skelton team and clearly likes to get on with things judging by his hurdles starts so far. Overturned at short priced odds, he seems to be a bit headstrong and I’d worry that this could be his undoing.

Herbiers and Royaume Uni raced against each other last time out. Herbiers just got the better of his rival and is now 1lb worse off but I wonder if that is quite enough for him to overturn the result. Herbiers was all out that day and as only a four-year-old he has a lot of potential, but this would be the hardest task he’s faced to date. He is clearly a horse going the right way though, which was proven by him beating Siroco Jo las time who had previously beaten him at Newbury. Royaume Uni has been beaten by both Pasvolsky and Herbiers but he is another who is still showing a lot of inexperience and off bottom weight I can see why there has been early market support. He could be too short in the betting now to consider as a selection but he’ll definitely be one to keep improving into next season.

Pasvolsky is an improving type and he could be able to defy the 8lb rise for his win at Kempton. He still gets 7lb from Flic Ou Voyou, whereas before he was only getting 5lb so on that basis he looks to have a great chance. He has been going from strength to strength and at the prices I certainly think he is good value for a place at least. Hopefully he is improving quicker than anyone else in the line-up and he can return in the winners’ enclosure come Saturday afternoon.

bettrends advice:
PAVOLSKY 0.5pts E/W @ 10/1 (William Hill - 5 places)

2:30 Sandown – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2) (For The Menorah Challenge Trophy) (EA)

Two of this four-runner line-up ran at the Cheltenham Festival last month and the pair are well clear of their rivals based on ratings ahead of Saturday’s Grade 2 contest.

FRODON is the top-rated horse in the 2021 renewal of the Oaksey Chase and the King George winner could be hard to beat this weekend for Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost. The nine-year-old has been a fantastic horse for connections, winning fourteen times from thirty-ones races including a number of major successes. He has developed a great partnership with Frost in the saddle and has become renowned for his bold jumping and positive tactics during his races, so Sandown should be an ideal track for him even if he has only raced at the course on one occasion to date.

FRODON has shown a particular liking for Cheltenham throughout his career, recording six victories at Prestbury Park as he has progressed from being a very good handicapper to a Grade 1 winner at the Festival. His first success at the course came in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap back in 2016 before he rose through the ratings to defy top-weight in the same contest two years later. That performance saw FRODON earn a rating of 169 and he duly went on to land the Ryanair Chase later in the campaign. This season he made a winning reappearance in a Class 2 Cheltenham handicap, again off top-weight, and he then went on to further big-race success in the King George on Boxing Day under a well-judged ride by Bryony Frost. Following his Kempton victory, FRODON was given his chance in the Gold Cup rather than attempting to regain the Ryanair and he gave his all as usual before not lasting home to finish fifth. Back in trip on Saturday, FRODON has had five weeks to recover from his Cheltenham exertions and he could be hard to peg back at Sandown with the course and small field to suit his front-running style.

His main rival looks to Mister Fisher who could have more to offer over Saturday’s distance for Nicky Henderson. The seven-year-old remains relatively lightly-raced over fences having had the eight chase starts so far, winning three times. He has been held in high regard by his connections and looked a nice prospect last season when winning two of his first three chases, including the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster. That success set Mister Fisher up for his run in the Marsh at the Cheltenham Festival and he ran creditably in the Grade 1 to finish fourth. However, this season he has not kicked on as hoped, failing to complete in three of his four races. The ground was a possible excuse when he was pulled up on his reappearance in in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap in December, but he then went on to win the rearranged Peterborough Chase on soft, with the Grade 2 being held at Cheltenham for this season. Mister Fisher has since run twice at the highest level but his jumping has let him down on both occasions, firstly when pulled up in the Ryanair and then when unseating in the Bowl at Aintree earlier in the month. The good ground should suit him at Sandown, but he now has a bit to prove and FRODON is likely to put his jumping under pressure this weekend.

The other runners in the Oaksey Chase have a lot to find with the top two, even if they are in receipt of 6lb. With the weights taken into account, Dan Skelton’s BORN SURVIVOR has 17lb to find with FRODON so he looks to face a tough task, although the ten-year-old will have his favoured conditions on Saturday. His record stands at four wins from seven races on good ground over fences, including two Listed handicap victories in 2018/19. This is a big step up in grade though from his Class 3 win at Stratford last time out. The final runner in the line-up is Militarian, who looks to be up against it for Andrew J Martin having struggled in the Bowl at Aintree on his latest start.

bettrends advice:
FRODON 2pts WIN @ 8/11 (in general)

3:05 Sandown - bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) (JH)

Firstly, let’s begin with a few of the unfancied runners as we have a look through this Grade 1 contest. Dolos is the outsider of the field and he has struggled stepping into Graded company, finishing last of six in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time out. He therefore has a lot to prove on Saturday.

Another bigger-prices runner is Nuts Well from the Ann Hamilton stable, but this horse has continued to improve all season long. His win in the Old Roan at Aintree over two and a half miles was a career-best performance and he then finished runner-up at the highest level in the Melling Chase last time out, However, he was no match for the winner at Aintree and is likely to find others to strong for him at Sandown as well.

You would never want to rule out Rachael Blackmore in any race after the impressive season she has had but Ornua looks to be up against it here. Despite having such a talent in the saddle, this is clearly Henry De Bromhead’s weaker candidate in the race as he also runs Put The Kettle On who looks to be heading off as favourite for the race. This mare has already proven her class time and time again at Cheltenham (now 4-4 at the course), including landing this year’s Champion Chase. She beat Chacun Poi Soi on the day but she now has to prove that she can be as effective away from Cheltenham.

Paul Nicholls runner Greaneteen put up his best effort when only finishing two lengths behind Put The Kettle On in the Champion Chase at the Festival. The seven-year-old has looked a progressive chaser this season and has already proven he won’t mind this track when finishing runner-up in the Tingle Creek over course and distance earlier on in the season. He would still need a career-best to land the Celebration Chase though.

I think a lot of racing fans would like the eleven-year-old Altior to win this contest again and show just how special he is, but his last performance was a tad disappointing. He is remarkable on his day and has won fifteen of his seventeen starts over fences, including the last three runnings of this contest, but was below-par in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton in December. Nicky has applied the cheekpieces for the first time here but I think his market rivals, with race fitness on their side, might just get the better of him today.

A chance is taken on Alan King’s runner SCEAU ROYAL who has been beaten by Altior on four occasions but today the form might switch. He was extremely unlucky in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, travelling nicely when hampered badly three out and lost all sort of chance from that point onwards. He has already landed the Game Spirit at Newbury this season in good fashion and, granted better luck this time around, he has an excellent chance of reverting the form with Henry De Bromhead’s mare.

bettrends advice:
SCEAU ROYAL 1pt WIN @ 11/4 (bet365, William Hill, BetVictor)

3:40 - bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (WU)

The major handicap on what looks to be a brilliant day’s racing sees sixteen go to post in a race that requires plenty of stamina to overcome the 3m 4f 166y trip. The ground looks like it will be on the quick side so favouring those with proven stamina on a better surface may not be the worst idea when trying to decipher a competitive affair like this. Of the previous eleven previous, only three have carried more than 11st and of those three, only one has carried more than 11st 1lb. On this basis, it would pay to play those closer to the bottom of the weights and in this year’s renewal there are six who carry 11st or less. These six horses include the favourite for the race and the elephant in the room Plan Of Attack. The record of the Irish when coming over to win races in Britain is quite remarkable and it’s no surprise that Rachael Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead are once again teaming up with the market principle. The eight-year-old was an unlucky faller in the Kim Muir when he looked to be coming into the race nicely. Whether he would have won is another question but based on his performance to that point he certainly has an excellent chance here. Off the same mark as that effort, you’d be brave to discount him but at the prices he’s not been missed and I’m more than happy to look elsewhere for value.

Kitty’s Light is a horse I’ve been following for a long time. After a couple of below-par efforts over hurdles he was a different animal over fences and has come on leaps and bounds. It was an excellent effort that saw him finish third behind El Presente, who reopposes here. There was a 20lb weight difference that day and now only 8lb separates them on ratings, which would suggest that El Presente is well clear. However, Christian Williams is a shrewd operator and he knows that he has an improving five-year-old on his hands. Kitty’s Light will love the drying ground and after a good win at Kelso there could be more to come. My main concerns would be that this is by far the most competitive field he’s been in and as a five-year-old it’s a big step up against some seasoned veterans. El Presente has been a model of consistency this season and is the one closes to being a Graded performer at the moment. Quick ground brings out the best in the Kim Bailey trained eight-year-old and David Bass has built up a brilliant relationship with him. He was disappointing on his last start at Ludlow after a break and will need to put that behind him. 11st 9lb would put him up against it at the weights but if he can find a nice rhythm up front then he could be hard to peg back.

The Young Master is part of the furniture in this race and has turned up year in, year out since his win in 2016. He was second back in 2019 and is now 1lb lower but you can’t help but feel age will have caught up with him, even with the valuable 5lb claimer Kevin Brogan onboard. Another older horse in the line-up is the top-weight Crosspark. His string of seconds speak for themselves and back against the younger horses it could just find at least one too strong for him again.

Enrilo gets the assistance of this year’s champion jockey Harry Skelton. A winner on his latest start at Newbury by half a length, he idled in front but you can tell that he’s a horse with a lot of ability. The form of that race has been franked quite nicely by the third Ballymoy, but I just question his mindset when he comes under pressure. It’s a big step up in trip and against some good horses wandering about like he did at Newbury will cost him. He is a horse with an enormous amount of potential but like Kitty’s Light, I wonder if this race might just come a bit too early in his chasing career. Just above him in the weights is Potterman, who has faced a couple of Saturday’s rivals already. The Alan King trained gelding had an excellent 2019 season but struggled in 2020 before winning at Market Rasen. This season he was a close second to El Presente in what was an excellent performance, and they oppose off the same weights tomorrow. On that evidence, I can’t work out why they are separated so much in the market and if you like that form, he certainly represents value. I don’t think the step up in trip will be a problem for him and Alan King’s horses have been going quite well as of late.

My pick comes from the bottom of the weights and in fact he is stone last carrying the minimum 10st on his back. Supreme Escape represents the Evan Williams team and gets one of the most underrated jockeys on his back Tom O’Brien, which is a huge positive. At seven-years-old he’s still really low mileage, which I think will be key for his chances in this race. A graduate of the point-to-point scene it bodes well for his chances, as of the last six winners of this race four had won a point.. This is a horse that does not want any ground with cut in it and the only time he’s been tried over good ground he won very nicely. This incidentally was his last win, and it was the first time he was being tried over a marathon trip of 3m 6f 130y. He came their cruising and once jockey James Bowen woke him up he had plenty in hand and won quite snuggly. The fourth has come out and won since, which is good to see and I really fancy his chances here.

bettrends advice:
SUPREME ESCAPE 1pt E/W @ 11/1 (BoyleSports - 5 places)

4:15 Sandown - bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2) (JH)

Seven runners go to post for this Grade 2 hurdle over 2m5½f and the market suggests it is quite an open contest.

Formerly with the Gordon Elliott yard, Captain Zebo has shown much better form since joining the John Dixon stable. The nine-year-old has had five starts under Rules in Great Britain and has come home victorious on every occasion, albeit only winning by a head last time out at Carlisle in December. His unbeaten run could come to an end today though against some much tougher oppostion.

Despite not winning since December 2019, Call Me Lord is one of two runners in the field to have scored over course and distance previously when landing this contest in 2018. However, this horse Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old has not been in the best form this season and he could find life difficult again off top-weight. The other horse in the field with a course and distance success is the 2019 Select winner Younevercall, from the Kim Bailey stable. The ten-year-old looks well-fancied here to make it two wins on the bounce after this meeting was abandoned last season. This is his second run after a wind operation after finishing eighth in the Stayers’ Hurdle and this looks a more winnable task.

Brian Hughes teams up with Ruth Jefferson to try and get Clondaw Caitlin back to winning ways. After rattling up a four-timer last season, this mare looked one to keep a close eye on heading into the 2020/21 season but she has been very lightly-raced – she has only been seen once over fences and once over hurdles. She looks a lot more comfortable over the smaller obstacles and is open to further improvement with a run now under her belt, but will need to pull out all the stops to match these previous Graded winners.

The newly crowned champion jockey Harry Skelton looks to have a solid chance of adding yet another win to his tally with Pic D’Orhy. He looked to be much improved after undergoing a wind operation when only getting beaten by a head last time out at Taunton. This looks a lot tougher but if the six-year-old improves on that run then he could be one to keep an eye on, even if he does have a 4lb penalty to carry.

Rex Dingle keeps the partnership intact with Indefatigable. With high hopes heading to Aintree after an excellent fourth in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, she didn’t run too badly when finishing seventh, 14 lengths behind the classy Thyme Hill, so she could just about be the each way play of the race.

Nicky Henderson will be looking to end the season with a bang and ON THE BLIND SIDE looks to have an excellent chance of landing the 2021 Select Hurdle after finishing runner up in the 2019 renewal. The nine-year-old finished one place ahead of Indefatigable in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Aintree and the drop back down to 2m5½ could be exactly what this horse is crying out for. Nicky Henderson’s gelding only finished two and a quarter lengths behind McFabulous at Kempton over this trip in January and a repeat of that could see him land Saturday’s contest. He has been ultra-consistent all season long and is worth a chance once again.

bettrends advice:
ON THE BLIND SIDE 1pt WIN @ 11/2 (bet365)

4:50 Sandown – bet365 Josh Gifford Novices' Handicap Chase (EA)

This looks a competitive running of the Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase with not much separating those at the head of the market.

One of the horses currently vying for favouritism is Killer Clown, who is lightly-raced for Emma Lavelle and has only had the five starts over fences so far. He has progressed with his racing this season, showing improved form since dropped back to two and a half miles for his last three races. He had begun his chasing career over a longer trip, finishing sixth in a big-field Exeter handicap over three miles in November before making his next start over Saturday’s course and distance the following month. Killer Clown finished third at Sandown on soft ground in December and has since shown better form when getting quicker conditions. He gained his first win over fences when successful at Kempton over Christmas time, keeping on strongly to score by seven and a half lengths from the Nicky Henderson-trained Falco Blitz. Killer Clown looked to win with a fair bit in hand that day and was stepped up in class for the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury for his latest start. Sent off as favourite for the Grade 3 handicap, the seven-year-old put up a good effort to finish second by a length to David Pipe’s Umbrigado who was in the process of completing a hat-trick. A rise of 3lb for Killer Clown after that performance seems to be fair and he can run well again on Saturday with conditions to suit, although it might not be easy for him to concede weight to all bar one of his rivals up against plenty of unexposed types.

Also towards the top of the betting is Not That Fuisse who may have had more races over fences but has not had his ideal conditions on too many occasions. The Dan Skelton-trained eight-year-old has only won one of his ten chases but has been consistent in the main and seems best over two and half miles on good ground, which is a scenario that he gets this weekend. His only win over fences came under those conditions at Perth on his seasonal reappearance in September and he has been in decent form since in the face of some difficult tasks. In November he contested the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter where he finished fourth in the Grade 2 handicap, although the trip would have been on the short side for him that day. Not That Fuisse’s next two starts came in jumpers’ bumpers where he finished runner-up and then won, before he finished a creditable fifth in the Grand Annual Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. Upped to two and a half miles for his latest run eight days ago, he was only a neck away from getting back to winning ways as he was runner-up in a Listed handicap at Ayr. Not That Fuisse remains on the same mark after that effort and he could go close again at Sandown if the Ayr run has not taken too much out of him.

Preference though is for BELARGUS from lower in the weights and who also benefits from the 5lb claim of Niall Houlihan. He may have fallen in two of his last five starts, but he has finished in the top-three in his other four races this season and can prove himself to be well-handicapped on Saturday. Trained by Nick Gifford, he had a quiet first campaign over fences so he remained a novice ahead of 2020/21, but he has found his form with racing this season and after finishing runner-up twice (with a fall in between) he got off the mark over fences at Sandown in February. That came over two miles on heavy ground so he will face a different test this time around, but he won comfortably that day by nine lengths from Sam Thomas’ subsequent winner Grey Diamond. BELARGUS was tried in a Listed novices’ handicap for his next start returned to Sandown and he was going well enough falling at the twelfth obstacle upped to two and a half miles. The race that day on soft ground was won by Venetia Williams’ Farinet, but the better ground could be in BELARGUS’ favour and he can get back on track with success on Saturday.

Of the rest of the field, Farinet has to be respected after his course and distance win last month, but this will be the quickest ground he has faced in his career so far having previously been trained in France. Iconic Muddle is also an interesting contender representing Gary Moore, whose horses often go well at Sandown. The eight-year-old has been placed in both of his chases to date and has potential now upped to two and half miles, but he faces some tough opposition for one with not much experience over fences.

bettrends advice:
BELARGUS 1pt WIN @ 5/1 (bet365, William Hill, Unibet)

5:25 Sandown - bet365 Handicap Hurdle (AC)

The final race of the jumps season is one we all love – a 15-runner handicap hurdle over two and a half miles. Who doesn’t love the jumps eh?

Down the bottom of the weights, Embole looks to have it all to do from out of the handicap, carrying 10st for a mark of 113. He was well-beaten at Hexham last time into third and hasn’t come close to replicating the form he was in when the Skelton’s first acquired him. Interesting, Harry Skelton rides Solo instead, possibly to end the season on a winner for Paul Nicholls. Solo was a smart four-year-old but hasn’t won since his debut for the yard in February 2020. He was beaten 17 lengths last time at Kelso and, despite sporting the tongue tie for the first time, he’s opposed in this.

Top weight Scaramanga may have Bryan Carver’s 3lb claim to help him out but still shoulders 5lb more than winning a small field race at Newbury last time. The Nicholls’ yard haven’t won this in the last 10 years but the Henderson yard have enjoyed considerable success, saddling the winner in 2019, 2018 and 2012. They are represented by handicap debutant Cascova in this, ridden by de Boinville, off an opening mark of 132. The rating seems fair and he did win a maiden hurdle at Ascot easily last time, but stable form remains a concern.

Connections of Cervaro Mix can be rightly aggrieved that their horse races off a 5lb higher mark than when second (by two and a half lengths) at Uttoxeter back in September, and although fresh he is opposed. Also opposed is the very lightly raced L’Homme Presse, with the Venetia Williams-trained horse vulnerable to the bounce factor following a storming success in a novice at Chepstow after a long time off the track.

The ground looks to be a worry for Thibault and Commentariolus (on debut for Christian Williams), but Gary Moore’s Golden Boy Grey may be one to keep on side. He made his debut at Sandown, beating the strongly fancied Grand Mogul and got back into gear when winning again at Fontwell, but both of those wins came on heavy ground. Byron Flyer has been around for longer than most but hasn’t troubled the judge recently, while Mahlervous has been badly out of form since winning at Kelso and didn’t show any spark when returned to hurdles at Kelso last time.

Haafapiece is consistent but pays the price for that in handicapping terms and needs to pull out something that he hasn’t shown before. Commanche Red is only 3lb higher than when winning at Plumpton last time but that was a weak race and he’s struggled in these kinds of events over hurdles.

The two that are interesting are Floating Rock and BARD OF BRITTANY. The former races off the same mark as winning at Ayr last week, as he hasn’t been reassessed yet, so he’s well in based on that. He’s in much better form now and should be considered, but the selection is Sheena West’s BARD OF BRITTANY. A lover of genuine good ground, he bolted up at Doncaster then went in again quickly at Sandown (over course and distance) before being given two spins on the All-Weather at Chelmsford and Lingfield to keep him going. He’s 11lb higher than when winning at Sandown the last time but he was held up that time and won easily, giving the impression there’s plenty of scope for him to make the frame off this mark. ody>

bettrends advice:
BARD OF BRITANNY 0.5pts E/W @ 8/1 (bet365)

NAP: FRODON (2:30 Sandown)
NB: SCEAU ROYAL (3:05 Sandown)

Briony showing her class the past hour