Cold & Dry 3 days ahead..

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 10:56am #1

Hi all hope this is a legit opening of a thread...

We are heading into a very interesting period of weather in the next
few days i think we can expect a wicked inversion placing eastern
areas near freezing until Tuesday. Its all down to an area of High
Pressure which is ridging northeast to Scananavia, but the
long awaited Easterly Blast is unlikely at the minute..

Tonights snow event is growing with momentum now and looks
like it could be very interesting indeed.. It comes as a wave feature
currently developing off the west coast deepens slightly but brings
a band of reasonably heavy precipitation. As the feature moves eastwards
it will bring in behind bitter air on a northeasterly airstream this
air looks like undercutting the rainband and now looks very likely
that the rain will turn to snow this evening in many parts
as it move away south.

My thoughts on where the snow will fall are that areas as far north as
Louth and all the way to the far southeast could see upto 2 hours of
snow this evening. Southwestern are likely to be too near the milder
air though. Worst affected areas will be the midlands, Leinster
and east Munster. Accumalations will only be small due to the wet
surfaces but 5-6cm's are possible on High Ground and 2-3cm's possible
at most at low levels.

The snow/rain/sleet will then move away southwards and bring in very
cold air to all the country, eastern areas may be affected by a few
light snow showers of the Irish sea later due to low level instability
as the wind veers easterly for a time.

Things will then get much colder but more settled on Sunday, Monday
and Tuesday with hard frosts. Im looking the possibility of some light
snow showers on Monday morning in the east coast but 500hpa DAM
thicknesses may be too high to produce snow as we are so close to
very high pressure, i'll keep you informed

The latest Dublin TAF indicates the uncertain but interesting outlook

EIDW 220400Z 221206 09010KT 9999 BKN010 BKN020
TEMPO 1217 5000 -RASN
BECMG 1719 06013KT SCT020
TEMPO 1703 -SHSN -SHGS SCT012 SCT018CB
BECMG 0104 03010KT

Supercell · 22-01-2005 12:36pm

The two most recent taf's for Dublin airport ..

EIDW 220900Z 221019 12008KT 9999 SCT012 BKN018 BECMG 1316 07013KT TEMPO 1017 7000 -RADZ SCT007 BKN010 PROBA40 TEMPO 1517 5000 -RASN=
EIDW 221000Z 221812 05013KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 1803 -SHRASN -SHGS SCT012 BKN018CB BECMG 0205 02010KT BECMG 0912 35010KT=

.. would indicate that current thinking is that we may see some light sleet this evening (between 15:00 and 17:00 approx) followed by light sleet showers from 18:00 to 03:00 ..then probably nothing as winds become increasingly more northerly and by 09:00 tomorrow they are nnw'ly ..which translates as clear and sunny for most people unless you live in northern coastal counties.
The big question in my mind , living in Dublin, is will the wind turn to the north completely or will it have a slight easterly component..heres hoping ..:)

22-01-2005 1:37pm

My own thinking is sleet and hill snow.
However the rain bands position come night fall will be crucial.

As regards an easterly drift producing snow from Irish sea showers in the next 24hrs,I'd like to see temperatures down below 2 degree's before I'd be confident of that and actually 1 or lower.

The M2 buoy (iirc which is in the Irish sea) is reporting 6c at the moment which indicates that the air mass travelling over the Irish sea is still too warm for snow, It's also not indicative a an air mass cold enough yet to produce the temperature contrast between the air mass and the sea that enhances shower activity.

Temperature outside here at the moment is +5 in S.Wicklow(the same as at Dub airport) whilst the coldest I've seen is castleblaney at noon at 2.2c.
The later is definitely cold enough already for hill snow around the mournes further East.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 1:49pm

Heres the current 850hpa temps
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn062.gif

and the ones for this evening
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.gif

As you can see the much colder air will arrive from 5

Supercell · 22-01-2005 3:45pm

Some amazing runs on the 06Z ensembles series for Dublin !!

http://tinyurl.com/5qcnn

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 4:31pm

Yes there is now two patterns developing a real arrival of
a severe Easterly Blast or a return to milder weather if
the trend continues into the 12z boy oh boy it could be fun

They show a true Easterly Blast like those of the 80's
http://www.metcheckdata.com/data/forecast/gfs/graphics/lo_ensp2_latest.png

If they did come off we would be talking severe weather for the East coast
with an endless supply of snow showers, a long way to go yet
but with 4 runs merging together and the others scattered
the possibility of a real Easterly Blast is pushing to 60%

22-01-2005 5:11pm

meanwhile...
your roving reporter got into his jeep since his last post.
I drove about 4 miles from here on a narrow fllooding road up hill to about a thousand feet and then veered up a mountain lane to about 1500ft.
The fog was dense, I met it at about 400ft asl or so and the roads/lane were like rivers.
It's been raining here in this neck of the woods for a solid 26hrs or so.

Anyhow the upshot is, I can tell you that at 1500ft in south wicklow, its raining with no sign of any iceyness or sleet or even a stray flake in it and its very foggy.
The temp up there is about 3c and down here its 5c

I'll be back up there around 8 this evening when I expect some action...
If it is snowing, getting up there is the easy part, getting back down is the equivalent of a red ski run in places for the decline...
Should be fun though

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 5:12pm

Good Luck Earthman :eek:

22-01-2005 5:38pm

By the way I've just seen the latest BBC news 24 forecast and they are predicting temps in Ireland tomorrow around 3c over the bulk of the island up to 8 or 9 c in the far south so even at 3c too warm for snow at low levels

For monday Tuesday, they have rain spreading in and a temp of 6c here

They are talking up snow showers and a bitter northeasterly for the south East of England on those days but with a max temp of 4 c

My memories of 80's snow would have put most of Britain on those occasions down below zero maybe minus 4 being the day time max in places as far west as Cardiff whist we here in the East being at zero or just below.
Back in those days with a proper Easterly(origin siberia and a freezing continent) the clothes on the washing line used regularally freeze up during the daytime!!
Another thing I havent seen in over ten years are proper rock hard ice-icles hanging from the shed roof...

highdef · 22-01-2005 5:38pm

Yeah I went for a spin up the Dublin mountains around lunchtime. I went up the Kilakee Rd from the Ballyboden end up as far as the RTE entrance to the mast at Kippure. Fog was very thick but there was none at the RTE site entrance. There were a few patches of snow higher up on Kippure and the lowest temp was recorded here (500m) at 2.5C according to the car thermometer which does seem to be usually accurate. Light drizzle up there which turned into moderate/heavy rain on the way back home.

Gonzo · 22-01-2005 5:39pm

i dont think we'll get any snow, its about 3C outside and misty drizzle so i cant see much more preciptation happening, was pouring for hours today so id say things will clear up soon and a frost will develop

Mothman · 22-01-2005 5:43pm

Earthman wrote:

meanwhile...
your roving reporter got into his jeep since his last post.
I drove about 4 miles from here on a narrow fllooding road up hill to about a thousand feet and then veered up a mountain lane to about 1500ft.
The fog was dense, I met it at about 400ft asl or so and the roads/lane were like rivers.
It's been raining here in this neck of the woods for a solid 26hrs or so.

Anyhow the upshot is, I can tell you that at 1500ft in south wicklow, its raining with no sign of any iceyness or sleet or even a stray flake in it and its very foggy.
The temp up there is about 3c and down here its 5c

I'll be back up there around 8 this evening when I expect some action...
If it is snowing, getting up there is the easy part, getting back down is the equivalent of a red ski run in places for the decline...
Should be fun though

Further up the county, I shall stay snuggled in front of the fire and watch the rain total rise. Won't be snow with me, being too near the coast.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 5:49pm

Hi all there wont be much snow no matter but there will be some..

Onto Earthman's point, the coming 3 days look like being cold
but not excessively so and this is not really an Easterly...

Although the next 3 days will be colder than 6c here in the East
I think maximums of 3-5c and remember the temperatures displayed
by thr Beeb are the maximum temperatures

There is a split from Wednesday things get milder for a day but
then we could enter a period of a longer cold spell with
a true Easterly Feed and with pressure much lower..4/10
runs went for this scenario at 6z with the other 6 scattered
but theses 4 stayed together so they seem a good bet
if they did come off then we would have a true Easterly
Blast

Tonight snow will be light but with a hard frost when the front
moves south with temperatures down to -5 in places with
ice and a dusting of snow inplaces with a few cm's possible
in the hills by morn

22-01-2005 5:53pm

Mothman wrote:

Further up the county, I shall stay snuggled in front of the fire and watch the rain total rise. Won't be snow with me, being too near the coast.

I can assure you that come hell or high snow the trip will be made en route to the pub

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 6:21pm

Temperatures falling now expect snow on Mountains with
the rain at low levels turning to sleet then snow

Supercell · 22-01-2005 6:51pm

Dew points are falling to the north which is a good sign..we may see some sleet/snow here (Dublin) tonight if the wind retains an easterly component long enough

Supercell · 22-01-2005 6:54pm

Earthman wrote:

I can assure you that come hell or high snow the trip will be made en route to the pub

Thats a brave thing to do!! ..if you have a digi camera please take some snaps ..with current dew points in northern Leinster of around 2c(and falling slowly) I would expect the higher parts of the Wicklow mountains are now recieving snowfall .

Danno · 22-01-2005 8:36pm

Driving between Portlaoise and Abbeyleix around 6.30 and there was a fir bit of sleetiness to the heavier burst of rainfall that hit the area.

Currently a little above 3c here.

22-01-2005 8:52pm

Longfield wrote:

Thats a brave thing to do!! ..if you have a digi camera please take some snaps ..with current dew points in northern Leinster of around 2c(and falling slowly) I would expect the higher parts of the Wicklow mountains are now recieving snowfall .

Unfortunately it is bone dry here now and the moon is out , making a trip to that mountain pointless

Speaking of which, the area around where I was today had 4-6 inches of snow on tuesday with drifting, so I'm told by my friends up there.
The wind is strong atm and from the north East and I see theres some precipitation near us in the Irish sea.
If that passes over here I'd expect sleety rain at best,But it might be too late to head up the mountains to see what it gives up there.

Gonzo · 22-01-2005 8:57pm

i dont think there'll be any more precipitation between now and wednesday at least...just cold frosty and sunny, its supposed to turn milder and wetter from wednesday into next weekend

Mothman · 22-01-2005 9:29pm

Gonzo wrote:

its supposed to turn milder and wetter

Who says?
Has a motion been passed? Is it written into law??

I find "its supposed" an interesting turn of phrase, I find myself using it as well.

As for weather for rest of night here, the dewpoint has fallen sharply, but with the easterly coming in off a sea temperature of 9C, it's not surprising that the air temperature here is holding at 5C, and as Earthman pointed out earlier, M2 bouy is still reporting air temp of 6C.
So if there are any showers (which I doubt) and they are pushed in by the easterly, they'll fall as rain. If wind turns to north, then temp may well fall, but any showers are less likely to make landfall, and anyway, even a northerly kind of comes in off sea where I am, so temperature may not fall much anyway.

Ramble over

DMC · 22-01-2005 9:55pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Tonights snow event is growing with momentum now and looks
like it could be very interesting indeed.. It comes as a wave feature
currently developing off the west coast deepens slightly but brings
a band of reasonably heavy precipitation. As the feature moves eastwards
it will bring in behind bitter air on a northeasterly airstream this
air looks like undercutting the rainband and now looks very likely
that the rain will turn to snow this evening in many parts
as it move away south.

....

My thoughts on where the snow will fall are that areas as far north as
Louth and all the way to the far southeast could see upto 2 hours of
snow this evening.

Oh for the love of God, lord, I've seen some makey uppy stuff on boards, but you must have taken a whole packet of Chocolate Kimberleys this time! :eek:

Weather, by its nature, is predictive... but why does it seem to be always the worst case scenario with you? Does one drop of sleet count for you as a blizzard? Not in my book, sunshine. The rain moved from the north to the south east from looking at the radar!! And the cold air by 5pm? No where on the east is below 0 yet, according to Met Éireann

Most of us wish for snow, and a good dollop of the stuff too. Why is it that when it comes to snow, your predictions, and my dear man, all they are is predictions seem to be the onset of armageddon?

Packets of fags carry health warnings. I think your posts should too.

And whats with the wink? Yer no Bill Giles or Gerald Fleming!!

Supercell · 22-01-2005 10:30pm

DMC wrote:

Oh for the love of God, lord, I've seen some makey uppy stuff on boards, but you must have taken a whole packet of Chocolate Kimberleys this time! :eek:

Weather, by its nature, is predictive... but why does it seem to be always the worst case scenario with you? Does one drop of sleet count for you as a blizzard? Not in my book, sunshine. The rain moved from the north to the south east from looking at the radar!! And the cold air by 5pm? No where on the east is below 0 yet, according to Met Éireann

Most of us wish for snow, and a good dollop of the stuff too. Why is it that when it comes to snow, your predictions, and my dear man, all they are is predictions seem to be the onset of armageddon?

Packets of fags carry health warnings. I think your posts should too.

And whats with the wink? Yer no Bill Giles or Gerald Fleming!!

Ahh now DMC thats a bit harsh , he's a young lad with a genuine love of the weather , and on ocassions where the weather is unusual inclined to get a bit excited ...and his posts make this forum a much more exciting (for ppl interested in meteorology) place to be !1

As to snow tonight, sadly its looking less and less likely, temps here have actually risen from 2.9 to 3.5 after the front passed..

Chances of sleet/snow in Dublin tonight = 5% ( translation very very unlikely)
Most likely scenario is that skys clear and temps fall to about 1c as the winds will be off the Irish sea till tomorrow morning. Inland places will see substantially colder, wouldnt be suprised to see a -3 > -5 in Kilkenny tonight.
Late Monday into Tuesday is when it gets interesting again here ...lets wait and see

Scubadevils · 22-01-2005 10:53pm

Longfield wrote:

Late Monday into Tuesday is when it gets interesting again here ...lets wait and see

What indications are there now for late Monday into Tuesday?

Scubadevils · 22-01-2005 10:55pm

Weathercheck wrote:

There are lots of people who i know
want me to post here, if there isnt please tell me ;)QUOTE]

Keep posting Weathercheck, learning a lot here

Any suggestions for sites to get a better understanding of the various models etc.?

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 10:56pm

A few wintry flurries are possible on Monday as i weak
front approaches precipitation amounts will be small

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.html

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 10:57pm

Any suggestions for sites to get a better understanding of the various models etc.?

Sorry dont quite understand the question

Thanks and i will

Scubadevils · 22-01-2005 11:00pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Sorry dont quite understand the question

Thanks and i will

Weather sites that explain how to read the various models, GFS etc. - the basics

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2005 11:03pm

There was a good link i had a while back i'll try and find
it again try Google anway

I'll try and dig up something and maybe it'll be another addition to my site

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2005 12:00am

Sorry to put a dampner Longfield but nothing much is
gonna happen here in Ireland and really its nothing
more than a short cool/cold spell (3days) Snow will
be in very very short supply

Towards Thursday/Friday my interests rise though
as a "real" Easterly is possible

Scubadevils · 23-01-2005 12:05am

Weathercheck wrote:

There was a good link i had a while back i'll try and find
it again try Google anway

I'll try and dig up something and maybe it'll be another addition to my site

Thanks, would appreciate the link if you can find it - would also be a great addition to your site.

Nothing wrong with you highlighting the bits of the weather you like, as long as they are a possible outcome! I personally prefer to know there MAY be some snow on the way and not just rely on RTE 3 day weather forecasts.

Scubadevils · 23-01-2005 12:14am

Weathercheck wrote:

Towards Thursday/Friday my interests rise though
as a "real" Easterly is possible

Why do you think we will benefit from this potential easterly? - Has it changed from just being of benefit to S & E UK?

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2005 12:17am

There is an split in the models with 4 runs showing what
would be a classic Easterly Outbreak for Dublin

It all comes about as an "Omega" Block forms from Siberia
through to Greenland, it hasnt been shown on the main
run yet though

If the pattern coninues Eastern Ireland would have to prepare
for an Easterly Blast

Probably wont happen but theres as much chance as that
occuring as anything else

Before that things warm up for a day or so late Tuesday

Scubadevils · 23-01-2005 12:25am

I have been reading about that on TWO etc but thought it would only be of benefit to the UK. I guess we will have to just wait & see

Cold for the moment will do me though :rolleyes:

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2005 12:34am

Deep Breathes

Ye tonights went bellies up but even the Irish Met
predicted sleet and snow

Why the agro? Is it me

Night all, unless the 18z Ensembles make me come back
and do a crazy prediction

GuanYin · 23-01-2005 10:48pm

Longfields response merited the ban for his response to Earthman alone.
However, I'm inclined to view all the participants of the flaming equally and I for one will be keeping an eye on future episodes.

If you disagree with the posts, fine, but "opinions" on the poster are not particularly welcome in the public forum.

S

Cold & Dry 3 days ahead..

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