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January 2015 Boards forecast contest

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    #62
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Confirmed final scoring for January 2015



    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___bonus____TOTALS

    _______________________ 4.8_ 16.2_ -6.2_115_124____71 kts

    Rikand _________________ 23 _ 17* _ 18 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 84
    Bsal ___________________ 18 _ 16* _ 18 _ 13 _ 05 ____ 07 _____ 77
    DOCARCH _______________17 _ 18* _ 20 _ 12 _ 03 ____ 05 _____ 75
    john mac _______________ 22 _ 08* _ 16 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 73
    jd _____________________ 23 _ 12* _ 09 _ 13 _ 06 ____ 09 _____ 72

    Con Sensus ______________18 _ 09* _ 16 _ 12 _ 05 ____ 10 _____ 70

    sunflower3 ______________ 18 _ 10* _ 16 _ 12 _ 03 ____ 10 _____ 69
    joepublic ________________16 _ 14* _ 13 _ 13 _ 05 ____ 08 _____ 69
    Harps __________________ 17 _ 16* _ 17 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 04 _____ 69
    M.T. Cranium ____________ 25 _ 07* _ 16 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 10 _____ 68
    Lumi ___________________ 22 _ 12* _ 17 _ 09 _ 03 ____ 05 _____ 68
    Jpmarn _________________ 25 _ 14* _ 00 _ 05 _ 10 ____ 10 _____ 64
    kindredspirit _____________ 21 _ 08* _ 13 _ 10 _ 04 ____ 07 _____ 63
    Schadenfreudia ___________16 _ 10* _ 07 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 10 _____ 61
    lostinashford _____________12 _ 07* _ 14 _ 09 _ 06 ____ 08 _____ 56
    rameire _________________ 22 _ 10* _ 00 _ 10 _ 06 ____07 _____ 55
    pauldry _________________ 13 _ 07* _ 08 _ 12 _ 05 ____06 _____ 51
    mickger844posts _________ 12 _ 10* _ 09 _ 05 _ 08 ____ 06 _____ 50
    delw ________ (-5) _______ 24 _ 09* _ 00 _ 13 _ 05 ____02 _53-5=48
    Dacogawa _______________22 _ 05* _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _____ 48
    dasa29 _________________ 18 _ 02* _ 09 _ 12 _ 05 ____ 01 _____ 47
    blue5000 _______________ 10*_ 07* _ 11 _ 07 _ 01 ____ 09 _____ 45
    omicron ________________ 10 _ 05* _ 00 _ 15 _ 03 ____ 08 _____ 41
    Tae laidir _______________ 10 _ 07* _ 03 _ 05 _ 03 ____ 05 _____ 33
    200motels ______________ 17 _ 05* _ 00 _ 01 _ 01 ____ 06 _____ 30

    * minimum progression rule applied (also one IMT score adjusted for new player who probably thought the IMT was daytime temps, please note if you play again, average of night and day actually.)

    _____________________________________________

    Congrats to Rikand, Bsal and DOCARCH for leading the way as we start a new contest year.


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    #63
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So, I have edited the provisional table (above), only required a bit of work on the sunshine estimate as everything else came in as expected.

    IMT 4.8 C

    MAX 16.2 Oak Park 9th (minimum progression rule was required)

    MIN --6.2 Dunsany 19th

    PRC 115%

    SUN 124% (the provisional number used was 115, only JPmarn and 200motels gained points after this was changed, most of the field dropped 2 points)

    BONUS confirmed to be 71 knots at Mace Head on 28th, you may notice that the bonus scoring is adjusted towards the high end (more precisely, away from the low end) and this is due to the small errors of the lower scores, felt that a blend of ranking and absolute error was fair this time.

    So, new contest, same leader as last year, and Con not out ahead yet. All good.


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    #64
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    What is the minimum progression rule? :o


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    #65
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    When the normal scoring methods would not give a very healthy set of scores, we have minimum values for highest score, second highest, etc, that were set out in a table a couple of years ago. This tends to equalize the monthly scores so that our best ten of twelve contest format is not unduly thrown off by the months you might miss or discard.

    The rule was used this past month for max temps because the actual value was going to result in most scores being zero. Our scoring system normally is rather punitive, losing half your points for max or min by being just 1.0 deg out is rather strict, but the scoring normally justifies it. This time, there would have been a few rather low scores and otherwise all zero, so when that happens, I read off the scores by rank order from the table. It is set out way back around Jan 2013 or so, most of the regulars here are used to it because we seem to need it about once or twice every three months or so.


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