Saturday 23rd Jan Haydock

del roy · 19-01-2021 6:10pm #1

The Peter Marsh Chase is a Grade Two race run over 3m that is staged at Haydock Park racecourse.

First run in 1981 the contest is sometimes billed as another Grand National trial, but we’ve yet to see a winner of this race land the Aintree marathon in the same season, although the 1995 winner, Earth Summit, did go onto win the Grand National 3 years later.

The 2020 Peter Marsh Chase was won by the Sue Smith-trained Vintage Clouds - the Sue Smith yard have won 5 of the last 17 runnings.

Here we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday January 23rd.

Recent Peter Marsh Chase Winners

2020 – VINTAGE CLOUDS (7/1)
2019 - WAKANDA (6/1)
2018 – THE DUTCHMAN (13/2)
2017 – BRISTOL DE MAI (4/1 jfav)
2016 – CLOUDY TOO (6/1)
2015 – SAMSTOWN (16/1)
2014 – WYCHWOODS BROOK (16/1)
2013 – No race
2012 – ACCORDING TO PETE (9/1)
2011 – No race
2010 – OUR VIC (20/1)
2009 – CLOUDY LANE (6/1)
2008 – No race
2007 – THE OUTLIER (8/1)
2006 – EBONY LIGHT (33/1)
2005 – LORD TRANSCEND (9/4 fav)
2004 – ARTIC JACK (6/1)
2003 – TRUCKERS TAVERN (9/2)
2002 – RED STRIKER (8/1)
2001 – No race
2000 – THE LAST FLING (11/2)

Key Peter Marsh Chase Betting Trends

17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites

The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 1:09am

If Royale Pagaille turns up he will absolutely hose in, have no idea if its the plan though so haven't pulled the trigger just yet. The only other entry he has is for Doncaster the following Saturday but the shorter trip doesn't make much sense so I am reasonably confident that he runs here.

Monkfish will have competition at the head of the market for the RSA on Saturday if this lad is as good as I think he is.

redzerdrog · 20-01-2021 1:17am

If that's the case he wont be running against Monkfish in the RSS

Anniepowaa · 20-01-2021 12:37pm

you are obviously on the byrnes supplements if you think ricci has given venetia williams a grade 1 horse

Justin10 · 20-01-2021 12:53pm

Anniepowaa wrote: »

you are obviously on the byrnes supplements if you think ricci has given venetia williams a grade 1 horse

I believe it was her horse, bought it from France, and sold it to Rich Ricci.

Anniepowaa · 20-01-2021 2:17pm

Rochey18 wrote: »

I believe it was her horse, bought it from France, and sold it to Rich Ricci.

high handicap at best

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 3:01pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

If that's the case he wont be running against Monkfish in the RSS

How do you mean?

I see he is quoted in the GC betting but doubt Venetia would be that brave. Or do you think he will go the NHC route?

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 3:02pm

Anniepowaa wrote: »

you are obviously on the byrnes supplements if you think ricci has given venetia williams a grade 1 horse

He didn't , check your facts at least before contributing your usual wonderfully insightful contributions.

Anniepowaa · 20-01-2021 3:15pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

He didn't , check your facts at least before contributing your usual wonderfully insightful contributions.

he owns it if it was any good it would be on the first ferry across the irish sea

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 3:35pm

Anniepowaa wrote: »

he owns it if it was any good it would be on the first ferry across the irish sea

Good man, I didn't realise you were privy to the workings of Mr Ricci.

Who do you think will win this Saturday's race so? It is very easy to simply dismiss every single horse that is mentioned and never actually provide any of your own selections, even at that you had to open a second account!!

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 6:18pm

We are not going to find out anymore this weekend by the looks of it, racing extremely unlikely to go ahead, inspection tomorrow and the course is currently underwater!

del roy · 20-01-2021 7:43pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

If Royale Pagaille turns up he will absolutely hose in, have no idea if its the plan though so haven't pulled the trigger just yet. The only other entry he has is for Doncaster the following Saturday but the shorter trip doesn't make much sense so I am reasonably confident that he runs here.

Monkfish will have competition at the head of the market for the RSA on Saturday if this lad is as good as I think he is.

16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight

Would VW run it under top weight on ground like this, fook the horse up and forget about Cheltenham is she does.

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 7:52pm

del roy wrote: »

16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight

Would VW run it under top weight on ground like this, fook the horse up and forget about Cheltenham is she does.

Statistics like that mean absolutely nothing, a well handicapped horse is a well handicapped horse regardless of what weight it carries, the make up and profile of handicaps has changed drastically in the last 4-5 years as well. 8 weeks is plenty of time for a horse to recover, and you have to remember we are talking about a 7 year old novice as well.

The entries were out today for Novice Chases in Cheltenham and he is entered in the RSA and National Hunt Chase and of course is also entered in the Gold Cup so certainly keeping all options open.

del roy · 20-01-2021 10:04pm

Statistics like that mean absolutely nothing :mad:

16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
10/17 – Irish bred (last french bred winner BRISTOL DE MAI 2017 whose form at Haydock was 121111)

11/17 – Favourites unplaced
2/17 – Winning favourites

Pogue unless the ROYALE has 8 or 9 lb in hand now he could have but the horse clearly has a lot against it and you are considering taking 3/1 about it

Hope ya take this the way it is meant.

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 10:21pm

del roy wrote: »

Statistics like that mean absolutely nothing :mad:

16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
10/17 – Irish bred (last french bred winner BRISTOL DE MAI 2017 whose form at Haydock was 121111)

11/17 – Favourites unplaced
2/17 – Winning favourites

Pogue unless the ROYALE has 8 or 9 lb in hand now he could have but the horse clearly has a lot against it and you are considering taking 3/1 about it

Hope ya take this the way it is meant.

No offence taken at all mate and I use certain trends myself, but not 'race' stats that dont actually make any sense. Weight carried is irrelevant in as far as it is the horses handicap mark that matters.

For example if a horse rated 163 enters the race and now Royal Pegaille suddenly has a racing weight of 11-2 are you telling me he has a better chance of winning beacause the stats say he can??

And yes I think he has potentially 8lbs plus in hand, I have rated his last run at mid to low 160's and he is on a steep upward curve, there is a reason that Veneita has entered him in the Gold Cup.

Anniepowaa · 20-01-2021 10:25pm

Jon Jo will win it anyway if going ahead

del roy · 20-01-2021 10:50pm

And yes I think he has potentially 8lbs plus in hand, I have rated his last run at mid to low 160's and he is on a steep upward curve, there is a reason that Veneita has entered him in the Gold Cup.

Well if you think he is that good well then 3/1 is a good price, I was listening to the road to Cheltenham with Lydia and Ruby, Royale was very high in her thoughts for any race he entered at Cheltenham bar the gold cup.

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 10:53pm

del roy wrote: »

And yes I think he has potentially 8lbs plus in hand, I have rated his last run at mid to low 160's and he is on a steep upward curve, there is a reason that Veneita has entered him in the Gold Cup.

Well if you think he is that good well then 3/1 is a good price, I was listening to the road to Cheltenham with Lydia and Ruby, Royale was very high in her thoughts for any race he entered at Cheltenham bar the gold cup.

I would agree with her, I have backed him to win any race at the festival at a very reasonable 9/1.

del roy · 20-01-2021 10:56pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

I would agree with her, I have backed him to win any race at the festival at a very reasonable 9/1.

Well then I would be hoping this saturday is a washout as some horses remember hard races and it will be one in that ground and weight been carried.

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 11:07pm

del roy wrote: »

Well then I would be hoping this saturday is a washout as some horses remember hard races and it will be one in that ground and weight been carried.

Its 8 weeks away??

I know you love a good stat so what would you say if I told you that 9 out of the last 12 winners of the RSA had a run in the 39 days before the festival.

If he doesnt run this weekend then it is next weekend and that wouldnt worry me in the slightest either.

How many winners at last years festival ran at the DRF?

del roy · 20-01-2021 11:10pm

the dslr does not worry me, its the mark from that race in that ground may leave on him

Pogue eile · 20-01-2021 11:21pm

del roy wrote: »

the dslr does not worry me, its the mark from that race in that ground may leave on him

Venitia's love it!

It doesnt worry me in general but particalarly for this horse who is a very experienced novice, hes much more physically mature than your average novice.

He is going to have to carry a minimum of 11-8 in the SkyBet anyway so much of a muchness.

dickdasr1234 · 21-01-2021 12:33am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Venitia's love it!

It doesnt worry me in general but particalarly for this horse who is a very experienced novice, hes much more physically mature than your average novice.

He is going to have to carry a minimum of 11-8 in the SkyBet anyway so much of a muchness.

And there was me for years thinking that a horse's ground preference depended on its breeding/physical characteristics.

What a pleasant surprise to find out that ground preference is entirely dependent on the name of the trainer!

Plasandrunt · 21-01-2021 2:13am

dickdasr1234 wrote: »

And there was me for years thinking that a horse's ground preference depended on its breeding/physical characteristics.

What a pleasant surprise to find out that ground preference is entirely dependent on the name of the trainer!

It's pretty well known that Venetia Williams horses are generally more effective with a bit of cut in the ground.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/generic-feature/is-it-true-venetia-williams-horses-are-best-on-heavy-ground-552020

del roy · 21-01-2021 10:38am

Haydock’s meeting on Saturday will be subject to an inspection on race-day morning after the course passed an initial check on Thursday.

An inspection was called for 8am on Thursday, with the ground already described 24 hours earlier as heavy, waterlogged in places and further rain expected from Storm Christoph.

The track passed that early assessment of conditions, but a second inspection was announced for 8am on Saturday before a fixture featuring four Grade Two races – and the possible return of dual champion hurdler Buveur D’Air – can go ahead.

The remaining threat to the feature card is from a forecast cold snap, according to a Tweet on Haydock’s official account.

It read: “Today’s inspection has passed for Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase raceday. The track is currently fit to race. Another precautionary inspection is due at 8am on Saturday due to risk of frost.”

Elsewhere, both Ludlow and Wincanton passed 8am inspections for Thursday’s seven-race cards.

At Ludlow, the ground is heavy, soft in places, on the hurdles course and soft over fences – while at Wincanton it is heavy all round.

Friday’s card at Ffos Las was abandoned following an inspection on Thursday morning, with the ground waterlogged.

Pogue eile · 21-01-2021 1:49pm

dickdasr1234 wrote: »

And there was me for years thinking that a horse's ground preference depended on its breeding/physical characteristics.

What a pleasant surprise to find out that ground preference is entirely dependent on the name of the trainer!

Yes because that is what I said!

In the last 5 seasons, Venetia has had 1525 runners with a S/R of 13.6%. She has had a sum total of 3 runners where there was any mention of firm in the going, all were beaten. She has had 175 runners on Good ground with a S/R of only 7.4%. You tell me what type of ground her horses generally prefer. And if you dont think how and where a horse is trained can affect thier ground preferences then yes you probably have wasted a few years!

FYI sarcasm actually takes a certain amonunt of wit and intelligernce to pull off, are you sure you have thought this through??

IAMAMORON · 21-01-2021 3:09pm

Whatever about there being any value in Royal Pagaille's price at 3/1 I think shrewdies should look into taking any AP price available beforehand for his entries at Cheltenham.

Simply if he wins on Saturday off top weight his price for both the NH chase and the Gold Cup will collapse dramatically.

I think he is good, but no one knows how good yet. If he beats all those carrying top weight on Saturday he is definitely above average and obviously very progressive.

Furthermore there is every chance the ground turns up boggy at Cheltenham, all it takes is some over watering the week before and then an unforecast deluge on race week. It can happen.

Pogue eile · 21-01-2021 3:15pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Whatever about there being any value in Royal Pagaille's price at 3/1 I think shrewdies should look into taking any AP price available beforehand for his entries at Cheltenham.

Simply if he wins on Saturday off top weight his price for both the NH chase and the Gold Cup will collapse dramatically.

I think he is good, but no one knows how good yet. If he beats all those carrying top weight on Saturday he is definitely above average and obviously very progressive.

Furthermore there is every chance the ground turns up boggy at Cheltenham, all it takes is some over watering the week before and then an unforecast deluge on race week. It can happen.

Simon will still declare is as Good to Soft though

del roy · 21-01-2021 11:13pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Simon will still declare is as Good to Soft though

with firm in places.

abarkie · 22-01-2021 1:09am

Pogue eile wrote: »

I would agree with her, I have backed him to win any race at the festival at a very reasonable 9/1.

Who is that with and is it still available?

Pogue eile · 22-01-2021 1:26am

abarkie wrote: »

Who is that with and is it still available?

William Hill, still available.

del roy · 22-01-2021 3:37pm

Trainer

It is often said that when the ground is testing, runners from the Venetia Williams stable should be noted and the trainer is represented in the feature contests at Ascot and Haydock.
Fanion D'Estruval seems to have plenty on his plate in a strong-looking Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (3.35) at Ascot, but is talented, open to improvement and has testing-ground form from his time in France.
Weather doubts in Merseyside might mean stable jockey Charlie Deutsch rides him rather than head to Haydock for stablemate Royale Pagaille, who runs in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (2.40).

A heavy-ground course winner last month, Royale Pagaille then impressed at Kempton over Christmas and may emerge as a leading chaser if successful in a race Williams landed with General Wolfe (1999) and The Outlier (2007).

Pogue eile · 22-01-2021 5:30pm

del roy wrote: »

Trainer

It is often said that when the ground is testing, runners from the Venetia Williams stable should be noted

Nobody tell dickdasr1234, it will kill him to realise that he wasted the last number of years!!

shanboghted · 22-01-2021 8:21pm

Actually fancy duc des genievres at 20/1, any reason for the big drift today? He will love the ground and cud run them into the ground if he doesn't act the pig

del roy · 23-01-2021 12:56am

two front runners taking each other on :mad:

The Mig · 23-01-2021 11:10am

You’d think the stable jockey would be riding Royale Pagaille if he was that much of a good thing but yet he goes to Ascot. 6/4 awfully skinny price

posturingpat · 23-01-2021 11:30am

The Mig wrote: »

You’d think the stable jockey would be riding Royale Pagaille if he was that much of a good thing but yet he goes to Ascot. 6/4 awfully skinny price

Has he gone that short? I'll be laying him if he is. Very impressive last time but a huge hike and I'm not as sure he really wants a slog as some are, looks a competitive race too and giving loads of weight away in a swamp is hard work.
I was going to have a bit ew on crievehill but the lay on RP would be safer. Bit of both would be great.

del roy · 23-01-2021 11:31am

posturingpat wrote: »

Has he gone that short? I'll be laying him if he is. Very impressive last time but a huge hike and I'm not as sure he really wants a slog as some are, looks a competitive race too and giving loads of weight away in a swamp is hard work.
I was going to have a bit ew on crievehill but the lay on RP would be safer. Bit of both would be great.

GREEDY FECKER

naughto · 23-01-2021 11:36am

4 pages by half 10 jesus

del roy · 23-01-2021 11:41am

naughto wrote: »

4 pages by half 10 jesus

STARTED DURING THE WEEK

:D:D:D

Anythingforlove
Sat 23rd Jan 2021
13:30, Haydock
DEC Odds: 10 (Betfair Exc)

Anythingforlove was unbeaten in two bumpers last season, and has won two of her three hurdle starts this season. Her only defeat came when a stirrup came off the saddle on her hurdling debut. She steps up in class here in the search for some 'Black type'. This is a tough race, but she'll handle the ground and this sister to a Gold Cup winner is very unexposed and it remains to be seen where her limitations lie.

Out of Black Sam Bellamy should really like the ground

Chesty08 · 23-01-2021 11:52am

Tritonic 12:40 Ascot.

Taking a chance on this one that he is as good as his breeding suggest.

Allart 12:55 Haydock

Hugely impressive the last day. Really like the look of this one for now & the future.

Roksana 1:15 Ascot

Regularly winner of this in prep for Cheltenham.

5/1 Treble.

supremenovice · 23-01-2021 11:54am

shanboghted wrote: »

Actually fancy duc des genievres at 20/1, any reason for the big drift today? He will love the ground and cud run them into the ground if he doesn't act the pig

I've given up on him at this stage. The Arkle win was a blip, hasn't been the same since. Best of luck if youre on though

supremenovice · 23-01-2021 11:58am

I'm going with one of my favourite horses right now - Botox Has in the 150 at Ascot. This may be a tune up for the Coral Cup as he loves Cheltenham but I'll throw a few quid each way just in case.
A sneaky mention for Fauburg Rosetgri in the 225. Simon Munir is as shrewd as they get and I can't believe they bought a dud in this felleh despite his poor performances in England so far. 33/1 is a decent price for the highest rated horse.

gazza1 · 23-01-2021 12:17pm

DOMAINE DE L'ISLE 3.00 could be a bit of value at 14s with 5 places on offer.
Won the race last year, hasn't shown anything since but is back down to the same mark today and headgear goes on. David Bass also back onboard.
GL

gazza1 · 23-01-2021 12:46pm

Townshend likes Ascot. Won over C&D at 20/1 last jan and was 5th only beaten 7 1/2L at 33/1 in nov. Is 1lb lower than his C&D win today. Jockey onboard that day is back on taking a further 10lbs off
20/1 ew

The Mig · 23-01-2021 1:39pm

posturingpat wrote: »

Has he gone that short? I'll be laying him if he is. Very impressive last time but a huge hike and I'm not as sure he really wants a slog as some are, looks a competitive race too and giving loads of weight away in a swamp is hard work.
I was going to have a bit ew on crievehill but the lay on RP would be safer. Bit of both would be great.

Was 5/4 at one stage this morning pat. Gonna take a chance on Acey Milan at 9s

del roy · 23-01-2021 2:10pm

gazza1 wrote: »

Townshend likes Ascot. Won over C&D at 20/1 last jan and was 5th only beaten 7 1/2L at 33/1 in nov. Is 1lb lower than his C&D win today. Jockey onboard that day is back on taking a further 10lbs off
20/1 ew

twister at Ascot last five years handicaps 53/6.....13 places +£11.32

N Twiston-Davies Mr Jamie Neild Ascot 3/1 1pl 33.33 33.33 18.00 21.00

supremenovice · 23-01-2021 3:20pm

supremenovice wrote: »

I'm going with one of my favourite horses right now - Botox Has in the 150 at Ascot. This may be a tune up for the Coral Cup as he loves Cheltenham but I'll throw a few quid each way just in case.
A sneaky mention for Fauburg Rosetgri in the 225. Simon Munir is as shrewd as they get and I can't believe they bought a dud in this felleh despite his poor performances in England so far. 33/1 is a decent price for the highest rated horse.

So, in conclusion, Botox Has wins the Coral Cup

Which is a relief, cause I wasn't sure where I was going to get a winner at this years Festival.

Andrew00 · 23-01-2021 3:23pm

Unreal from Yala Enki

costacorta · 23-01-2021 3:24pm

supremenovice wrote: »

So, in conclusion, Botox Has wins the Coral Cup
Which is a relief, cause I wasn't sure where I was going to get a winner at this years Festival.

Some others must have agreed with you as he went from 18/1 to 10/1 .Was either not trying or just totally useless .

posturingpat · 23-01-2021 3:48pm

Royal Pagaille very impressive. I wouldn't want Scudamore on him too often in future mind you.

Saturday 23rd Jan Haydock

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