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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

194959799100114

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,762 ✭✭✭bmcc10


    Woodley ko/too/dq or decision 11/10 looks good value


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    Polyana by sub
    Stamann on Points
    Diego Sanchez
    Walker by KO
    Cody G by KO
    Bones

    Nearly 52/1 PP


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    Walker
    Sanchez
    Woodley
    Askren
    Zabit
    Garbrandt

    20 returns 402 on pp


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I'm suprised jds isn't shorter than 1/2 to beat lewis
    I don't recall seeing anything better than 2/5 a week ago

    He wins this every day of the week for me and when jds took the best
    hunt could give it's very unlikely lewis puts him away with the one punch ko, only been finished by miocic, overeem and cain, outclassed similiar
    fighter to lewis like carwin, hunt and nelson

    price is too short for a single for me so how does he win this is the key or maybe even a double with dariush possibly

    torn between a late ko rnd 4/5 or a pts win
    I'm sure lewis will be exhausted after three rounds so it might be just
    a matter of holding on or jds may just be happy cruising to a pts win if he's miles ahead on the cards which he will be if this goes into the late rounds imo

    jds by ko or pts at 4/6 not great value but it's one or the other, submission by either seems a longshot
    jds pts is 9/2 with betfair which I like a lot, ko best at 13/10


    It would be a very sad day for a quality fighter like jds if he lost this to someone like lewis, time to retire if it happens which is unlikely anyway for jds


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    The value bet of the night for me is definitely Sergio Moraes at best price 2.8 on Bet365. An incredible recent record only losing to Usman who dismantled Woodly last weekend. A 2 pt bet for me.

    Niko Price looks value at 2.7 too but not terribly confident.

    Marion Reneau was tempting at a big price too, but went with Kunitskaya in the end, and by points to get a bigger price of 1.83.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    tinpib wrote: »
    The value bet of the night for me is definitely Sergio Moraes at best price 2.8 on Bet365. An incredible recent record only losing to Usman who dismantled Woodly last weekend. A 2 pt bet for me.

    Niko Price looks value at 2.7 too but not terribly confident.

    .

    was gonna come on here to post the same two especially moraes which looks like a 50/50 fight to me

    like price also as long as he doesnt decide to go banging with means like he did against al hassan
    I think that could be a razor tight decision if price sticks to the game plan, reckon we'll see a much improved price later on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,603 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Have Means by decision and Lewus by KO in a double

    I don't think Lewis will win, but KO is his only hope




    Double bust. Took JDS in the second instead


  • Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭rekluse


    Looking at a Masvidal / Gunnar double for tonight but my MMA knowledge wouldn’t be the best, anyone any thoughts ? Also a heads up that PP are refunding all losing #whatoddspaddy bets up to 10£ on the main event. If anyone has a fancy for that could they throw them up here - cheers !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭Whelo79


    Gunni on points @ 6/1 looks like a good value bet to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    rekluse wrote: »
    Looking at a Masvidal / Gunnar double for tonight but my MMA knowledge wouldn’t be the best, anyone any thoughts ? Also a heads up that PP are refunding all losing #whatoddspaddy bets up to 10£ on the main event. If anyone has a fancy for that could they throw them up here - cheers !

    cheers for that, it's a section I never think of looking at

    fight to go the distance and time out in fight is 9/2 appeals to me so my tenner has gone there

    if you fancy either fighter, time out with till win 10/3 or time out with masvidal win 8/1

    I fancy the fight to go the distance, masvidal has fought the very best and I don't recall seeing him in any trouble against any fighter
    Till does seem to have a pretty good chin also
    I think a timeout is always very possible in a 5 round fight especially in this one as I think it'll be five rounds standing


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  • Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭rekluse


    What exactly is a ‘time out’ ? Cheers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    masvidal oezdemir both 21/10


    too big surely?

    bit soon to be writing off oezdemir or is reyes that good to be such
    a short price?

    masvidal...when has he last been in trouble in any fight recently?

    4 of his last 5 losses have been splits, could well have been fighting for a belt or close had things gone his way
    his last loss to wonderboy was no surprise, wb being the worst possibly match up for a guy like masvidal

    haven't pulled the trigger on either yet

    masvidal pts 5/1 is one I like or the paddy power price special of time out in fight and till to win at 10/3 is seriously good value if you fancy till.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    rekluse wrote: »
    What exactly is a ‘time out’ ? Cheers

    The ref would call a timeout for a foul like an low kick or eye poke or if the doc was required I'm thinking


  • Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭rekluse


    mailburner wrote: »
    The ref would call a timeout for a foul like an low kick or eye poke or if the doc was required I'm thinking

    If a ref Restood fighters if there was no action would that be a time out ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    rekluse wrote: »
    If a ref Restood fighters if there was no action would that be a time out ?

    no


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    I am going big on Masvidal, I think that Till's heart is not as big and thats the difference.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    went with a single on masvidal at 2s and a smaller one on oez at same price


    masvidal pts 9/2
    oezd sub or ko 4/1
    singles/double

    I don't think oezd will win this if it goes the distance though as reyes should
    have an edge standing but maybe oezd might be more battle hardened.
    I think masvida will will be pretty close and I don't want to leave that price behind and
    regret it later.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,739 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Jesus there's the time out in already hahah


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    ASOT wrote: »
    Jesus there's the time out in already hahah

    Beat me to it lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    masvidal and a time out was 8/1 :(

    should have had more faith esp when I backed him

    oez I thought won that but at least one of the two obliged


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    mailburner wrote: »
    masvidal and a time out was 8/1 :(

    should have had more faith esp when I backed him

    oez I thought won that but at least one of the two obliged

    Yes, but thats nearly always the way with me, win or lose there is some regret. So pleased I stuck to a single big bet, I was tempted by Oze too...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Fairly mediocre card on tonight but as always it could turn out to be more exciting than a PPV.

    1 bet stands out tonight for me value wise, and that's Maycee Barber vs JJ Aldrich. Again it would seem to me that perhaps Maycee's price is down to the UFC hype train, she is very short for someone so young and inexperienced. Aldrich has won her last 3 although not against any household names.

    Aldrich best price 3.25 right now on Bet365 which seems like a brilliant price, and for extra value you could try her by decision at 4.25.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    tinpib wrote: »
    Fairly mediocre card on tonight but as always it could turn out to be more exciting than a PPV.

    1 bet stands out tonight for me value wise, and that's Maycee Barber vs JJ Aldrich. Again it would seem to me that perhaps Maycee's price is down to the UFC hype train, she is very short for someone so young and inexperienced. Aldrich has won her last 3 although not against any household names.

    Aldrich best price 3.25 right now on Bet365 which seems like a brilliant price, and for extra value you could try her by decision at 4.25.

    Yep thanks for that, placed a small bet as the price is so good.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    think willis is a lively outsider at 9/4 or even pts at 6/1 (ko 9/2 even:o

    good boxing, good footwork and if he can keep it standing I think he can
    beat blaydes

    pp had wonderboy pts priced up at 13/5 yet had the ko at 4/6 which was madness imo a few days back which didn't last long sadly
    I'm not nuts about the 13/8 on wb pts but I think he'll tap away at pettis for five and win like he usually does although the fight to go the distance is really tempting me at 5/4
    I'm struggling to see pettis win this though

    alexis davis pts the only other one but 6/4 is skinny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    I think the odds on WB/Pettis stop me betting on that, might even have gone for Pettis on long odds. They are in the same gym, know each other inside out. Much as I love WB, his style can be cracked given a good plan.

    Thanks to Mailburner, I was trying to resist a bet on Willis, I fancied it a bit anyway, great odds, but its too late now, Ive done it..

    So I have Willis and Aldrich, no more.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    I think the odds on WB/Pettis stop me betting on that, might even have gone for Pettis on long odds. They are in the same gym, know each other inside out. Much as I love WB, his style can be cracked given a good plan.

    Balls! I didn't even know they were in the same gym.
    pp won't let me cash out either, would have gone fight to go the
    distance had I known that, might be closer than the odds suggest so


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    mailburner wrote: »
    Balls! I didn't even know they were in the same gym.
    pp won't let me cash out either, would have gone fight to go the
    distance had I known that, might be closer than the odds suggest so

    I am going to regret this, BUT, just backed Pettis to win by decision, again the odds 7/1.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    I am going to regret this, BUT, just backed Pettis to win by decision, again the odds 7/1.....

    I've you to thank if that obliges and after what you said above I backed
    pettis on points also at a huge 12/1 with pp given I think it's the only way
    he can win and am amazed that the ko and sub prices are around 4pts shorter

    a wee pts double with willis also at 90/1 as I'm a greedy bastid


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    mailburner wrote: »
    I've you to thank if that obliges and after what you said above I backed
    pettis on points also at a huge 12/1 with pp given I think it's the only way
    he can win and am amazed that the ko and sub prices are around 4pts shorter

    a wee pts double with willis also at 90/1 as I'm a greedy bastid

    Ohhhhhh nooooooo what a great double.....

    And to think I wanted to back both Blades and WB a few days ago, but the odds..

    Looks like I need a PP account.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    MB you are a very bad influence on me.......

    Bet placed... only got 50/1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Tonight's early prelims start at 730pm. Nothing standing out value wise tonight, best I can muster is Jessica Aguillar at 4.0 on Skybet. She is a grizzled vet and her opponent has only had one draw against Randa Markos in UFC who is by no means elite level. Could be a dash of your UFC Hype Train feeding into prices.

    I took Aguillar on points as I'm a greedy pig.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,739 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Just two for myself, atletico won just there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    long fancied barboza for this one, think he'll get it done by ko
    If justin decided to use his wrestling he would win this but he probably wont


    fancy mj also at around evens more so as its emmets first fight since that
    brutal ko

    karate hottie to sneak her bout for me and branch maybe had an off day last time out, am surprised he's the underdog

    not sure of paul craigs opponent, he look like a lad who has power but as i dont know enough about him and if he has a ground game it's too risky, wouldnt back craig with stolen money myself but if you fancy him to win then the sub looks value at 3/1 when 9/10 wins have been by sub
    he might be cut if he loses here also so extra motivation there, other lad to finish is around evens which looks likely on paper anyway
    craig has been in there with very good lads also recently


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Mean Laqueefa


    not a mad bet ?

    Untitled.jpg


    tbf i dont understand betting, my dad always said he would batter me if i went into a bookies


  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭Tomas81


    not a mad bet ?

    Untitled.jpg


    tbf i dont understand betting, my dad always said he would batter me if i went into a bookies

    Can't see Gastelum giving style bender any trouble.

    I'm on Adesanya, Muhammed and Holloway all to win 5/1


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I like osp and not sure why the drift from a week ago (Was 4/6) should be fav
    beat krylov before, took him a minute to sub him so its osp by
    sub for me at 5/2 along with sub in round one at 6/1 (skyb)
    pp had this at 13/2 this morning...only 9/2 now, had it in the betslip but
    completely forgot about it

    like pantoja also but only 4/6, pts looks like though at around 7/4 imo

    can call max dustin, think dustin on pts might be a bit of value at 8s even though max might have a speed advantage

    adesanya can only win this on pts imo, 2s isn't great but I cant see him finishing kelvin



    don't rate anders at all, maybe rountree can take him out but not confident


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    time out in the adesanya fight at 2/1 looks pretty good to me esp the
    way he fights betfred

    same price for one in the max dustin fight

    nice little double there, max might get a knew to the groin at some stage also if dustin holds him against the cage :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,596 ✭✭✭smilerf


    Bit of interest


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    20 on a OSP sub

    20 on Kelvin via Ko/TKO

    and I had 10 left over so stuck it on Dustin via sub


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Having a 2.5 pt bet on Poirier for the craic. Lost my touch altogether on picking MMA fights lately and I've no confidence at all that I'll turn it around tonight, but I need something to entice me to stay up...

    As for my reasoning, I love max but DP has shown he can go in the trenches and not lose his power. Max is hittable and maybe that won't translate well to 155.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    dulux99 wrote: »
    Having a 2.5 pt bet on Poirier for the craic. Lost my touch altogether on picking MMA fights lately and I've no confidence at all that I'll turn it around tonight, but I need something to entice me to stay up...

    As for my reasoning, I love max but DP has shown he can go in the trenches and not lose his power. Max is hittable and maybe that won't translate well to 155.

    I think people are sleeping on Dustin in this fight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    I think people are sleeping on Dustin in this fight.

    Agreed. 7/4 is generous imo.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,603 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    I make Max a slight fav, and want him to win but I'm backing Dustin at those odds.
    Hate being in those spots tbh


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Mellor wrote: »
    I make Max a slight fav, and want him to win but I'm backing Dustin at those odds.
    Hate being in those spots tbh

    That's the correct way to gamble. Seeing value.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,603 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    I'm happy to back the dog for value. Just dislike it when I really want the other guy to win.

    Sorry Max, Dustin winning makes it a free Sunday for me


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    dulux99 wrote: »
    Having a 2.5 pt bet on Poirier for the craic. Lost my touch altogether on picking MMA fights lately and I've no confidence at all that I'll turn it around tonight, but I need something to entice me to stay up...

    As for my reasoning, I love max but DP has shown he can go in the trenches and not lose his power. Max is hittable and maybe that won't translate well to 155.

    Went as I thought, thank feck.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,603 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Ship ship.
    Went decent on Dustin because of the odds more than anything.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    mailburner wrote: »
    I like osp and not sure why the drift from a week ago (Was 4/6) should be fav
    beat krylov before, took him a minute to sub him so its osp by
    sub for me at 5/2 along with sub in round one at 6/1 (skyb)
    pp had this at 13/2 this morning...only 9/2 now, had it in the betslip but
    completely forgot about it

    like pantoja also but only 4/6, pts looks like though at around 7/4 imo

    can call max dustin, think dustin on pts might be a bit of value at 8s even though max might have a speed advantage

    adesanya can only win this on pts imo, 2s isn't great but I cant see him finishing kelvin



    don't rate anders at all, maybe rountree can take him out but not confident

    only took it for value alone despite thinking max would probably edge
    it on points

    not sure how gastelum held on there and anders ain't up to much
    osp very disappointing though


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Getting on Volkanovski now at 11/10 to beat Aldo. Don't expect him to be that price on fight night. Volkanovski would be a problem for a fully fit Jose Aldo these days, let alone a Jose Aldo who's had well publicised health issues lately.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Fancy cerrone to get it done later

    Small bet on the sub at 9/2 also


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