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African swine fever

  • 29-11-2019 11:07pm
    #1
    K.G.
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,259 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Think this could have effects similar in scale to the bio fuel boom in 06 07 08 so just said i stick it up to get opinions. Could it affect the grain price


Comments

  • #2
    MickeyShtyles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,371 ✭✭✭MickeyShtyles


    K.G. wrote: »
    Think this could have effects similar in scale to the bio fuel boom in 06 07 08 so just said i stick it up to get opinions. Could it affect the grain price

    I follow a ‘pig farmer’ from Kerry who’s been talking about this since roughly May.
    Unless it takes significant hold in Europe, is it gonna cause major issues?


  • #3
    Base price
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,349 ✭✭✭✭Base price


    K.G. wrote: »
    Think this could have effects similar in scale to the bio fuel boom in 06 07 08 so just said i stick it up to get opinions. Could it affect the grain price
    TBH I don't know what you mean about the bio fuel boom.

    However, ASF (African Swine Fever) will affect World wide grain prices due to the high meal input levels used in the pig and poultry industries. It's also going to increase the price of meal for dairy/cattle farmers.
    As the auld saying goes - one man's loss is another man's gain.


  • #4
    mr.stonewall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,864 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Base price wrote: »
    TBH I don't know what you mean about the bio fuel boom.

    However, ASF (African Swine Fever) will affect World wide grain prices due to the high meal input levels used in the pig and poultry industries. It's also going to increase the price of meal for dairy/cattle farmers.
    As the auld saying goes - one man's loss is another man's gain.
    If the world pig herd is reducing this should result less demand for grain and thus reduce grain price


  • #5
    Base price
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,349 ✭✭✭✭Base price


    mr.stonewall wrote: »
    If the world pig herd is reducing this should result less demand for grain and thus reduce grain price
    The Asian region pig herd has been decimated due to ASF however other World regions with piggeries have upscaled breeding in the last couple of years due to ASF. The same goes with poultry and duck production.


  • #6
    K.G.
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,259 Mod ✭✭✭✭K.G.


    Base price wrote: »
    TBH I don't know what you mean about the bio fuel boom.

    However, ASF (African Swine Fever) will affect World wide grain prices due to the high meal input levels used in the pig and poultry industries. It's also going to increase the price of meal for dairy/cattle farmers.
    As the auld saying goes - one man's loss is another man's gain.

    USA gov promoted biofuels im mid noughties that in combination with Chinese demand drove cerals mad


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  • #7
    Gawddawggonnit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Gawddawggonnit


    mr.stonewall wrote: »
    If the world pig herd is reducing this should result less demand for grain and thus reduce grain price

    A lot of grains are being produced at under cost of production already, do you really need them to be even cheaper?


  • #8
    Gawddawggonnit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Gawddawggonnit


    Base price wrote: »
    The Asian region pig herd has been decimated due to ASF however other World regions with piggeries have upscaled breeding in the last couple of years due to ASF. The same goes with poultry and duck production.

    There’s so much poultry now being produced here that the factories are under pressure to process them. Some poultry houses are being kept idle for a few months between lots to try to let the processors catch up with the sheer numbers being produced. Processors are allowing a quick turnaround in new poultry houses because they’ve invested some of their own money into them and signed 15yr contracts. The houses that have no debt are the ones being held back, thus the older houses...


  • #9
    mr.stonewall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,864 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Gawddawggonnit wrote: »
    A lot of grains are being produced at under cost of production already, do you really need them to be even cheaper?
    I'm just looking at what's being paid for ration. Will be exploring the possibility of taking grain from the tillage farmer going forward. Better margin for both of us


  • #10
    yosemitesam1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,983 ✭✭✭yosemitesam1


    Gawddawggonnit wrote: »
    There’s so much poultry now being produced here that the factories are under pressure to process them. Some poultry houses are being kept idle for a few months between lots to try to let the processors catch up with the sheer numbers being produced. Processors are allowing a quick turnaround in new poultry houses because they’ve invested some of their own money into them and signed 15yr contracts. The houses that have no debt are the ones being held back, thus the older houses...

    How quick can poultry production be expanded? Can hatcheries increase output rapidly if the sheds are there to be filled?


  • #11
    Mooooo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    From social media anyway, things seem to have been fairly difficult grain wise in North America, dunno what the official figures are, winter planting conditions poor in Europe as well. Could be a lot of pressure on grain supplies


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  • #12
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,966 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    yosemitesam1 wrote: »
    How quick can poultry production be expanded? Can hatcheries increase output rapidly if the sheds are there to be filled?

    If the houses are there and have availability to produce product it's half the battle. Generally processing units only work 8-10hours/day. It may be possible to add extra shift and process longer. Upscaling breeding of chicks would be easy enough

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #13
    _Brian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,617 ✭✭✭✭_Brian


    Is our bio security good enough to keep ASF out of Ireland or even Europe?


  • #14
    K.G.
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,259 Mod ✭✭✭✭K.G.


    Is it as significant an event as the media would have you belive.i know pig prices are at all time high but is it a big enough event to impact other sectors


  • #15
    Gawddawggonnit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Gawddawggonnit


    yosemitesam1 wrote: »
    How quick can poultry production be expanded? Can hatcheries increase output rapidly if the sheds are there to be filled?

    Processing capacity seems to be the bottleneck now. Processors are working round the clock.
    New sheds are going up all over.


  • #16
    Mooooo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    _Brian wrote: »
    Is our bio security good enough to keep ASF out of Ireland or even Europe?

    It's in Europe afaik, wild boar part of spreading it I think


  • #17
    Base price
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,349 ✭✭✭✭Base price


    Gawddawggonnit wrote: »
    Processing capacity seems to be the bottleneck now. Processors are working round the clock.
    New sheds are going up all over.
    I know of three new entrants in the last year within a 10 mile radius.


  • #18
    jaymla627
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,755 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    _Brian wrote: »
    Is our bio security good enough to keep ASF out of Ireland or even Europe?

    It's in Europe already, confirmed cases in dead wild boar in Poland....


  • #19
    Base price
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,349 ✭✭✭✭Base price


    jaymla627 wrote: »
    It's in Europe already, confirmed cases in dead wild boar in Poland....
    https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/diseasecontrols/africanswinefever/UpdateonAfricanSwineFever29July230819.pdf


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