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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,127 ✭✭✭✭Leeg17


    ScareGilly wrote: »
    €2 on Big Nog by KO - 14/1

    Ch-ching, profit so far not counting the rest, well done.


  • Registered Users Posts: 723 ✭✭✭ScareGilly


    Leeg17 wrote: »
    Ch-ching, profit so far not counting the rest, well done.

    F*cking Luis Cane... If Okami wins I'm actually going to write him a hate note... :mad: :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    bad day at the office :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 51 ✭✭The Left Hook


    We get Dwyer Mccaughley from Setanta sports on our podcast for tips. He is constantly winning . He won again this weekend :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 921 ✭✭✭sonic.trip


    Knew I should of stayed clear, not a bean from that UFC


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,127 ✭✭✭✭Leeg17


    sonic.trip wrote: »
    Knew I should of stayed clear, not a bean from that UFC

    Nor me, lost about 3e (I don't bet that high tbh), mate who doesn't know UFC followed some of my tips profited about 18e from 13e stake, typical :pac::rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭The Belcher


    Barboza surely has to be bomb proof in this UFC. Cole miller was getting the better of Pearson standing before he subbed him so Barboza will surely eat him alive?
    I'm going doing 30euro double with Boyles to win the guts of 49euro. Going with Barboza and Paulo Thiago to win. I could get stung with Thiago as I have never seen his opponent Dave Mitchell fight. From looking at the records though Thiago seems to have faced higher level opponents especially in his UFC career to date. Thiago also has his back to the wall in this fight coming off two decision losses to Sanchez and Kampmann and with a 3-3 UFC record to date and possibly his job on the line, I expect him to put in a massive performance and take the win.
    Like Mailburner I think Schaub should win but am keeping clear incase Big Nog fighting in his home country fires him up to put in a big performance or else if it goes the distance gets him an undeserved hometown decision.

    Just after watching this now, Barboza had it a lot tougher than I thought he would but thankfully got the deserved nod from the judges. Fair play to Pearson though, thought he fought a great fight. Big Nog I'd say destroyed a lot of accums this weekend. I didn't think he looked good at all though myself to be honest, and can't see him winning a few in a row. Delighted to get a rare UFC win for me :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,660 ✭✭✭SDTimeout


    Anyone else fancy Roger Gracie at Evens for tomorrow night ?

    The dudes never been submitted in competition since he was a blue belt. Won a load of BJJ stuff and that's why I like him so much.

    He's 4-0 in MMA and King Mo is a bit of a stand up guy with a wrestling background. However at 8/11 a lot of people would see value in experience being so close to the evens.

    The option for BY SUB isn't there so going to e-mail paddypower and find out their price on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭The Belcher


    I stuck 20 on Cormier a few weeks ago, think it was 5/4 I got him at. I don't know why really as I haven't seen a whole lot of him. I just think he could keep Big Foot on his back for 3 incredibly dull and boring rounds and get the decision.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    have a single on ellenberger at 31/20 (lads)
    think that's too big to ignore
    i'd imagine it'll be a very close fight and if ellenberger
    keeps it standing and i believe he's well capable of
    doing so then i think he can win a decision
    i'd be surprised if it didn't go the distance however


    he's also 5/2 to win a dec with skybet


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,660 ✭✭✭SDTimeout


    Big shields fan but can't really go for the 10/3 by Sub. Ellenberg has only lost by Dec and Sub. That's the only way I can see Shields winning it too. Standing I've got Ellenberg all day long.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 732 ✭✭✭Xlami


    Went for Koch, Belcher and Shields treble. Around 3-1 with paddy. Most uncertain about Shields.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭The Belcher


    I have 30 on Ellenberger at 31/20 with ladbrokes. I honestly don't think he'll get Ellenberger
    down (or if he does, will keep him there). I think Ellenberger could light him up in the stand up, I suppose it's the price though really that's making me go for him. Seems way too big in my opinion, time will tell I suppose.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,438 ✭✭✭✭El Guapo!


    Think I'll go for Ellenberger to win in rd2 @ 12/1 on PP

    Think his striking will be too much for Shields and if he can keep it standing then he may get the KO/TKO


  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭welchy


    Went with Ellenburger KO at 5/1 and a treble on McGee, Stone and Belcher :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Ian Whelan


    A tenner on the Rampage and Matt Hughes double will net you a healthy 200 euro. 19/1 that these two former champions can do the business. Maybe I have lost my mind but it seems like too much value to resist.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,943 ✭✭✭✭scudzilla


    Gonna have me a fiver on a 6 man accumalator

    Mizugaki (4/9)
    Te Huna (4/7)
    Boetsch (8/13)
    Diaz (4/11)
    Hughes (3/1)
    Dampage (4/1)

    IF they all come in i'm 500 squids up :D:D

    Not holding me breath though but cracking odds and it's only a fiver


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    Some insane odds on paddy power for this one. Gomi at 15-8 is a no brainer and Hughes at 3-1 against Koscheck. Also Aaron Riley is heavy underdog against Tony Ferguson, who has one UFC win in TUF finale. Those 3 seem bizarre to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,943 ✭✭✭✭scudzilla


    Some insane odds on paddy power for this one. Gomi at 15-8 is a no brainer and Hughes at 3-1 against Koscheck. Also Aaron Riley is heavy underdog against Tony Ferguson, who has one UFC win in TUF finale. Those 3 seem bizarre to me.

    The Gomi one is the one i'm most dubious about, i got Diaz in my accumalator, of i change to gomi it doubles my return on a win to just over a grand for a fiver stake. May throw an extra accumalator on but change diaz for Gomi


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    scudzilla wrote: »
    The Gomi one is the one i'm most dubious about, i got Diaz in my accumalator, of i change to gomi it doubles my return on a win to just over a grand for a fiver stake. May throw an extra accumalator on but change diaz for Gomi

    You should. Remember, its Nate Diaz, not Nick. Nate is nowhere near as good Nick, and Gomi should get the knockout. The only way Nate can win is by submission, but he lacks strength and wrestling technique to get Gomi there.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Some insane odds on paddy power for this one. Aaron Riley is heavy underdog against Tony Ferguson, who has one UFC win in TUF finale.

    that caught my eye also
    not sure how good ferguson is tbh but he's way too short
    to be betting on
    he did look winning tuf but this is a step up

    finding it hard to find value on the card otherwise myself
    the treble of rothwell kosh browne works out at just under evens
    wouldnt be over confident and might not even have a bet but a
    small bet for an interest if i do

    rampage a hard man to stop and jones points at 9/2 isnt the worst
    price imo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    You should. Remember, its Nate Diaz, not Nick. Nate is nowhere near as good Nick, and Gomi should get the knockout. The only way Nate can win is by submission, but he lacks strength and wrestling technique to get Gomi there.


    not sure about gomi knocking out diaz
    the diaz brothers seem damn near impossible to knock out


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,660 ✭✭✭SDTimeout


    mailburner wrote: »
    not sure about gomi knocking out diaz
    the diaz brothers seem damn near impossible to knock out
    “That little fúcker hit me with a Hadouken or something.” - Nick Diaz on fighting Gomi.


    :D Diaz by Sub would be my bet here. Constantly was close enough to landing them against Kim who is a far better wrestler than Gomi.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,414 ✭✭✭Cill94


    Ian Whelan wrote: »
    A tenner on the Rampage and Matt Hughes double will net you a healthy 200 euro. 19/1 that these two former champions can do the business. Maybe I have lost my mind but it seems like too much value to resist.

    Those are awesome odds. Any fight Jones is in has ridiculous odds...it's great! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    did a small bet tonight on

    johnson
    bary
    wiman
    works out at around 9/4

    not over confident but i think bary is a cert
    I reckon he'll chop down struve with those vicious
    leg kicks for a few rounds and could get the ko
    the wiman danzig fight could go either way
    I think johnson should take care of brenneman if
    the weight cut hasn't taken too much out of him
    should the fight go three rounds

    Good to see the dentist back in the ufc
    and
    Go mighty mouse :)
    unlikely but it should go the distance


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,480 ✭✭✭Devastator


    mailburner wrote: »
    johnson
    bary
    wiman
    works out at around 9/4


    I took same 3 fighters but done Barry by ko which was 11/8 which makes the treble just short of 4/1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Devastator wrote: »
    I took same 3 fighters but done Barry by ko which was 11/8 which makes the treble just short of 4/1

    best of luck
    I tend to get stung a lot in the method of victory markets but
    it does look fairly likely
    Just a bit worried bary might chop him down for three rounds
    and not go in for the kill myself but struve will no doubt keep
    coming forward so the ko looks like a good bet


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,480 ✭✭✭Devastator


    mailburner wrote: »
    best of luck
    I tend to get stung a lot in the method of victory markets but
    it does look fairly likely
    Just a bit worried bary might chop him down for three rounds
    and not go in for the kill myself but struve will no doubt keep
    coming forward so the ko looks like a good bet


    Good luck to you too matie.

    I just done it for KO win because its a small stake for bit of interest, might aswell go for better odds


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    god damn it

    the one i was most confident about screwed me :mad:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,480 ✭✭✭Devastator


    height difference was ridiculous, Barry got in with few shots but Struve looked to have a huge advantage when it went to ground


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,660 ✭✭✭SDTimeout


    Was really annoyed when I came home from work last night and saw that Paul Sass won by Submission. I wasn't able to bet on that method last night because Paddy weren't offering the market. He was 6/4 to win alone though.:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,480 ✭✭✭Devastator


    SDTimeout wrote: »
    Was really annoyed when I came home from work last night and saw that Paul Sass won by Submission. I wasn't able to bet on that method last night because Paddy weren't offering the market. He was 6/4 to win alone though.:(


    They only offered win by market on 2 fights last night. They usually don't offer anything other than straight win market on fight nights/ufc live anyway, only the numbered events would have the main card offering more markets(sometimes a big pre lim also)


  • Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭loremolis


    Anyone got any predictions for UFC 136 at the weekend.

    I'll got for Edgar, Aldo, Sonnen and Guillard in the main event.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    loremolis wrote: »
    Anyone got any predictions for UFC 136 at the weekend.

    I'll got for Edgar, Aldo, Sonnen and Guillard in the main event.

    can't see past guillard and aldo myself
    uncle chael i reckon will get past stann and pettis should
    be far too quick for stephens

    cant call edgar maynard myself

    im thinking of going with the guillard aldo pettis treble for betting purposes


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,598 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    My picks,
    Guillard
    Sonnen
    Pettis
    Aldo

    I'm leaving the main event out of any bets. There is no value to be hard here, its too close and pretty well priced. I'd lean towards Gray purely because he is a better price at the minute. But neither fighter represents a good bet.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,435 ✭✭✭weemcd


    mailburner wrote: »
    im thinking of going with the guillard aldo pettis treble for betting purposes

    +1 This.


    Anyone looking at Stann? I think this fight is probably closer than the odds make out. In the time Sonenn has been sidelined, Stann has stopped 3 opponents. In fairness none of the opponents were of Sonenn's calibre, but ring rust can definitely play a part in this.

    Something tells me to put 2 quid on a stann/florian double, just for the odds :o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,598 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    weemcd wrote: »
    +1 This.


    Anyone looking at Stann? I think this fight is probably closer than the odds make out. In the time Sonenn has been sidelined, Stann has stopped 3 opponents. In fairness none of the opponents were of Sonenn's calibre, but ring rust can definitely play a part in this.

    Something tells me to put 2 quid on a stann/florian double, just for the odds :o
    ????
    +1 to the guillard aldo/pettis/treble, then you say florian/stann double.

    It's really stupid to make both of those bets.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭p to the e


    nobody going for the Maia fight? I think he looks a lot stronger than Jorge both in ground and stand up game. His boxing has improved considerably. I stuck an accumulator on Maia, Guillard, Sonnen and Florian. I was wrecking my head trying to decide for the main card so just left it out altogether.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,969 ✭✭✭ShagNastii


    Really great card for an accumulator some very callable fights.

    Will probably throw a few quid on

    Guillard
    Aldo
    Sonnen
    Beltran
    Nam Phan


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 397 ✭✭fightireland


    Blew most of the rainy day fund on Ireland this morning but in an effort to get it back I have posted a betting guide on the site and you can all claim €30 with Skybet - it's all here Enjoy!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 271 ✭✭RAMPAGE1


    Did a lucky 31
    Aldo (sub)
    Lauzon (sub)
    stann (ko)
    Maia (sub)
    Maynard (ko)


  • Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭loremolis


    RAMPAGE1 wrote: »
    Did a lucky 31
    Aldo (sub)
    Lauzon (sub)
    stann (ko)
    Maia (sub)
    Maynard (ko)

    Can someone explain what a "lucky 31" is?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,660 ✭✭✭SDTimeout


    loremolis wrote: »
    Can someone explain what a "lucky 31" is?

    It's 31 different bets. 5 singles, 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfolds and a fivefold accumulator.

    Put 1€ on it and you pay 31€ in the bookies. The pay out of a 31€ stake on that is 16,000+


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    gone a bit mad this time but what the hell

    singles on

    guillard to win in round 1 @ 2/1 (lads)
    I don't think lauzon will get guillard to the ground and that will
    mean curtains for him imo and i don't see him getting past round
    one given how explosive guillard is

    maynard to win in round 1 @ 12/1 (pp) only 15/2 with ladbrokes
    (was tempted by maynard by ko at 6s also)
    I think it's a big price considering how close he came to a ko last
    time out and if he had connected properly when edgar went down
    they he would have got it

    double on
    guillard to win in round one 2/1 with pettis on points 11/8 (lads)
    I can't see past pettis and think he will be far too quick for stephens but
    it's unlikely he'll finish stephens who will no doubt be swinging for
    the rafters right up till the end

    ive all but convinced myself that whatever happens this time
    in the main event that maynard won't lose
    he doesnt deserve to be odds against imo
    maybe the countdown made my mind up for me but i just
    feel he'll die out there rather than leave without the belt this time
    I had edgar backed last time they met and i was very relieved
    to get my stake back with the draw thinking he had just lost out.

    maynard by points is value at 15/8 also compared to edgar by points 4/5 but
    i feel a points win is the only way edgar can win this

    still haven't decided if ill do the treble of aldo, pettis and guillard yet
    it works out best with boyles on those three

    i just feel these three are different class to their opponents


    was tempted by sonnen but i don't see him as a 2/5 shot
    it'll be a points win i reckon if he does it but i dont see it
    being comfortable and im sure stann will be well prepared
    for everything sonnen throws at him
    the odds for a sonnen points win says it all really (4/7)
    i hope sonnen wins as silva will make mincemeat of stann
    the stann points win might look big at 13/2 though and i feel
    if he does pull it off that this method is the only way i can
    see him doing it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,923 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    what a fecking disaster

    couldn't have got that much more wrong

    was stunned when guillard got clipped
    I thought he was closing in on a title shot and couldnt
    see anyway of him losing this

    was jumping around the place thinking i was close to
    a 12/1 winner when maynard caught edgar in the first.

    one of those days for me :o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,943 ✭✭✭✭scudzilla


    CroCop on Points is a cracking 7/1 on PP, i think he's still got it in him and Nelson's gas tank is suspect to say the least, put that alongside CroCop's recent lack of Aggression and ya could see a nice payout.

    An even better value double is CroCop on Points and Diaz on Points, returns 256Euro for a tenner stake


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Ian Whelan


    scudzilla wrote: »
    CroCop on Points is a cracking 7/1 on PP, i think he's still got it in him and Nelson's gas tank is suspect to say the least, put that alongside CroCop's recent lack of Aggression and ya could see a nice payout.

    An even better value double is CroCop on Points and Diaz on Points, returns 256Euro for a tenner stake

    Good luck with those. It's my view that Cro Cop will need to knock Nelson out to win this fight. If it does go the distance it's really difficult to see Nelson not securing a couple of takedowns and if he gets it to the ground it'll be hard for Cro Cop to manage. I think that Nelson will win this one in the second round.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭The Belcher


    Ah I dunno, betting on Crocop in any form is a disaster, I've done it myself loads of times. I keep hearing his interviews and vids on training etc and keep hoping he'll at least go back to being more aggressive and every time I'm left disappointed. I could never back the man ever again to be honest. Wouldn't be at all surprised if Country lands a big wild overhand right and ko's him. I read somewhere that Country got some mild form of pneomonia before his last fight so could explain how bad his cardio was.
    Best of luck with the bet though, it'd make my day to see Crocop pull it off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭CageWager


    Hi guys, im a frequent visitor to these boards but not a very frequent poster. Im starting up a MMA betting blog, I wont mention the name because I guess thats advertising (maybe someone can clarify that for me, its not for profit or anything, i do this for every mma event for my own benefit, just decided to finally post it for others to read). anyway, im going to post my 137 breakdown below for you to check out.


    Overview
    Here is my breakdown of UFC 137. There are 6 fights where odds are offered by the major online bookmakers. I have included my top picks and the best odds available. I have rated my picks between 1 and 3, 1 being a tentative selection and 3 being a certainty in my opinion.

    Big Country V Crocop
    With both fighters coming off a 2 fight losing streak this could well be a loser leaves town match. Although they share a 2 fight slide, the couple of brutal KO’s suffered by Crocop leave a far greater doubt hanging over his head (or more importantly his chin) than the 2 gruelling decision losses suffered by Nelson. Crocop has been looking more and more like a shadow of his former self of late and I think most fans agree that it may well be the time to call it a day on an illustrious career. Roy Nelson on the other hand is still a fighter will plenty to offer, albeit not as a title contender. He has found himself in the unenviable position, much like Kenny Florian of late, whereby he’s better than most of the top tier heavyweights but is unable to compete with the elites of the division.
    I believe this fight comes down to the suspect chin of Crocop and the undisputed iron jaw of Big Country(The man has only suffered 1 KO loss in 21 Fights). I can be confidant that if a 3 round barrage of Junior Dos Santos Bombs can’t put Nelson away then an aging Crocop won’t have much luck. Unlike the Croatian, Nelson has multiple options to win the fight. He is a vaunted Renzo Gracie Black Belt and would enjoy a significant edge if the fight goes to the ground, and has enough pop in his hands to put away the likes of Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve by KO. I believe Nelson will absorb whatever Crocop has to throw at him and put him away in the 3rd frame by KO.
    In terms of best odds, Bwin.com offer up 3/8 (0.375) for a Big Country (3 Points)Triumph, hardly anything to get excited about on its own, but it will fit nicely into my UFC137 Accumulator.

    Nelson: 1/3 Paddy Power, 5/14 Ladbrokes, 3/10 Bet 365
    Crocop: 2/1 Paddy Power, 23/10 Ladbrokes, 12/5 Bet365

    Tyson Griffin V Bart Palaszewski
    Palaszewski has been given an extremely tough assignment for his UFC debut. For a man who hasn’t fought for almost a year due to injury, Joe Silva certainly isn’t easing him into the Big Show. Although he has a solid record and some big name scalps (namely Anthony Pettis) Palaszewski just won’t have enough to deal with the skills of Griffin, who despite going 1-3 in his last 4 fights (including 2 split decisions in the losing column) is going to outwork and outclass his opponent much the same as his most recent outing against Manny Gamburyan. I see this one going to Griffin by Unanimous Decision.
    This is another fight where the bookies are probably spot on with their line. The best you can get for a Tyson Griffin (3 Points) win is 4/11 (0.36) with Paddy Power or Boylesports. There is no real underdog value here either for the romantics out there, the most you can get your hands on for a Palaszewski win is 5/2 (2.5) with Bet365. Another one for the Accumulator.

    Griffin: 4/11 Paddy Power, 5/14 Ladbrokes, 2/7 Bet365
    Palaszewski: 15/8 Paddy Power, 23/10 Ladbrokes, 5/2 Bet365

    Donald Cerrone V Denis Siver
    Cowboy hasn’t done much wrong in his last 5 fights, culminating in a 1st round knockout of the night over Brazilian prospect Charles Oliveria. This will be his 4th fight of 2011 and his 2nd in just over 2 months. I believe that although Cerrone brings great striking and wicked submissions he just won’t have enough to get past the skill set of Siver. The Russian born German will have an advantage on the feet and has proven difficult to take down in the past. Cerrone has a big name and a great camp, but I feel the oddsmakers have overlooked the quiet and unassuming Siver. I see the German outpointing the cowboy over 3 rounds.
    At 15/8 (1.875) with Betfred and Bet365, Siver (2 Points) represents some underdog value in my book.

    Cerrone: 2/5 Paddy Power, 5/11 Ladbrokes, 2/5 Bet365
    Siver: 7/4 Paddy Power, 9/5 Ladbrokes, 15/8 Bet365

    Hatsu Hioki V George Roop
    Whenever a fighter comes into the UFC with a huge amount of hype surrounding him the markets tend to overreact. Whenever I see a newcomer slated as the prohibitive 2/7 favourite in his debut I immediately look to the underdog to sniff out some value. Having done my research I can conclude that this value definitely exists. Going by the past year’s results, seeing a successful Japanese fighter debut in the UFC as a heavy favourite is a red herring. I’m a big fan of Japanese fighters but there is a noticeable pattern, and I bet with my head, not my heart. Patterns like this cannot be ignored:
    JAPANESE FIGHTERS IN THE UFC (Last 2 years)
    *with the exception of Yushin Okami
    Takanori Gomi 1-3
    Kid Yamamoto 0-1
    Takeya Mizugaki 1-1
    Michihiro Omigawa 0-2
    Yoshihiro Akiyama 1-3
    Riki Fukuda 0-1
    Total wins: 3/14 (21%)
    Total losses 11/14 (79%)

    I think in terms of the fight itself, Roop being the bigger and stronger figher will allow him to exploit the fact that Japanese fighters clearly don’t adjust well to the UFC. I see him using his reach to pick away at Hioki who carries all the pressure and expectation on his shoulders. It is impossible to use past fights with different fighters to predict the outcome in this one but at odds of 5/2 (2.5) with Bet365 I’m willing to take a chance on the trend continuing with a Roop (1 Point) decision win over the Japanese star.

    Hioki: 2/7 Paddy Power/Bet365, 1/3 Ladbrokes
    Roop: 9/4 Paddy Power, 12/5 Ladbrokes, 5/2 Bet365

    Cheick Kongo V Matt Mitrione
    I couldn’t be more impressed by Matt Mitrione’s UFC career to date. Who would have thought that when he was eliminated from season 10 of TUF at the quarter final stage that he would go on to post a 5-0 mark in the UFC in just under 2 years. He has shown rapid improvement in all areas of his game and has established himself as a finisher, putting away all but the iron chinned Joey Beltran by either KO or TKO. Cheick Kongo is a long established name in the UFC but has always flattered to deceive. Despite his astonishing comeback KO of Pat Barry in June, he will not have enough to deal with Mitrione, who going by form will have improved since his latest outing, a brutal KO of Christian Morecraft. I see Mitrione adding another knockout to his collection, his most impressive to date and he will continue to ascend the 265lb ladder.
    Best odds for Mitrione (2 Points) are 4/5 (0.8) with Sportingbet.com

    Kongo: 11/10 Paddy Power, 6/5 Ladbrokes/Bet365
    Mitrione: 4/6 Paddy Power, 2/3 Ladbrokes, 4/6 Bet365

    BJ Penn V Nick Diaz
    The main event sees 2 of my favourite fighters go at it in what is sure to be an instant classic. Both men bring exceptional skill sets to the table, world class Jiu Jitsu and some of the best boxing we’ve ever seen in MMA will be on display October 29th. BJ is coming off a difficult period in his career where he has gone 1-2-1 in his last 4 fights with the win being a 0.21 second KO of an over the hill Matt Hughes. Despite this he is still BJ Penn and is extremely dangerous no matter when you fight him. Diaz on the other hand is riding a 10 fight win streak, albeit against lesser competition, but impressive nonetheless. I believe that this match is truly a coin toss, and either man could win in multiple ways. So in order to determine a winner I am forced to drill down into the smaller details that may swing the fight in one direction or another when great skill on both sides may cancel each other out. I can see why Penn is the favourite and most people’s pick to win but I think in the absence of any gaping edge in the stand-up or ground departments this fight could become a tale of conditioning and reach. BJ is a great boxer but will have a very tough time getting anything past the rangy Diaz. I think the Caesar Gracie fighter will look to push a ferocious pace and exploit Penn’s suspect gas tank. This fight could go either way and I certainly will be watching this fight with interest while keeping my cash for another betting opportunity but I will take Nick Diaz to win by TKO in the 3rd round for a small stake.


    Diaz (1 Point) is available at evens (1.0) from Paddy Power.
    Penn: 8/11 Paddy Power, 20/21 Ladbrokes, 20/23 Bet365
    Diaz: 1/1 Paddy Power, 20/23 Ladbrokes/Bet365

    Final Selections and Odds
    For this card I will be doing a six man accumulator as follows:
    *All placed with Paddy Power
    1.Tyson Griffin 4/11
    2. Roy Nelson 1/3
    3. Denis Siver 7/4
    4. George Roop 9/4
    5. Matt Mitrione 4/6
    6. Nick Diaz 1/1
    This will return €54.17 for a €1 stake
    And:
    Underdog double
    1. Denis Siver 7/4
    2. George Roop 9/4

    This will return €8.94 for €1 stake


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9 Minowaman


    Your breakdown isn't bad, although I would disagree with that Japanese connection. I know that fighters often lose when they go to the UFC but
    1. Kid Yamamoto hasn't been the same fighter since his injury and was given a very tough fight for his 1st fight in the UFC.
    2. Gomi has been past his prime for years.
    3. Fukuda won that fight
    4. Omigawa won one of those fights
    5. Hioki is in his prime and training in the US (I believe) and Roop isn't actually a very good fighter

    Also, big accumulators are not the way to go in the long run.


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