UARS Satellite Possible Fireball 23RD

Iancar29 · 22-09-2011 1:49pm #1

I know this is also on the astronomy forum but i wanted to get as many people looking up at the sky 2moro for some "space weather " possibibly heading our way. MODs decide what you seem fit .

NASA has issued an update on the condition of the decaying UARS satellite: "As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours." Check the Simple Satellite Tracker for last-chance sighting opportunities.

So if anyone has any time-lapse or recording equipment , wouldnt be a bad idea to try record a large portion of the sky as possible from tomorrow. Its not so often we get a Fireball forecasted for an area in which we could see it.

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Ps : If it happens right over ireland 2moro when im in work between 5-9........I will be one UN HAPPY CAMPER!

Mountainsandh · 22-09-2011 11:05pm

That's really exciting and thanks, could you keep us updated please ? don't get a chance to go online at all at work and I find these satellite tracking sites a bit tedious to figure out to be honest.
Any chance it might be night here by the time it flies/bursts by ?

gbee · 22-09-2011 11:07pm

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Any chance it might be night here by the time it flies/bursts by ?

TMK, at this time [which can change] it's 2.00 ~ 2.30AM

Pangea · 22-09-2011 11:36pm

When is it expected to fall exactly?
Heard some people mentioning tonight and some tomorrow.

fizzycyst · 22-09-2011 11:39pm

On the 9 o'clock news they said it would be tonight, but if there is any remnants left, there could also be the possibility of a fireball tomorrow on the next orbit. Unfortunately, it's a bit late for me,good luck to anyone sky watching

Pangea · 22-09-2011 11:56pm

Just showed on bbc news a map of all the satellites surrounding the earth in space, its amazing and quite frightening what is surrounding us.
It said late tomorrow evening it will fall and they will only know 2 hours before where it will fall.

Davaeo09 · 22-09-2011 11:58pm

Just wondering if anyone could tell me if this will be visable tonight? if so would I be right in saying between 2.30-3.30?

Spread · 23-09-2011 12:00am

Just saw the news here and they said somewhere hear the coast of Chile. That gives them a decent margin of error.

Captain Chaos · 23-09-2011 12:01am

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Just wondering if anyone could tell me if this will be visable tonight? if so would I be right in saying between 2.30-3.30?

http://heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=21701&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

Over the Northern part of the country tonight, don't know what time.

muckish · 23-09-2011 12:03am

Pangea wrote: »

Just showed on bbc news a map of all the satellites surrounding the earth in space, its amazing and quite frightening what is surrounding us.
It said late tomorrow evening it will fall and they will only know 2 hours before where it will fall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydbbd-4oEds

muckish · 23-09-2011 12:07am

This from spaceweather.com

Captain Chaos · 23-09-2011 12:10am

Real time tracking on heavens above says it's making a pass just North of the country in about 5 mins.

vonbarracuda · 23-09-2011 8:33am

Did it fall ? Nasa said if you find any of it to contact your local law enforcement agency

Iancar29 · 23-09-2011 1:27pm

I'll be seriously sad if this falls in full view for Ireland while im in work!!!

Nasa arent great at giving regular updates now are they?

Mr Benevolent · 23-09-2011 2:24pm

It's very unlikely to fall near Ireland. We're a very small target.

lolie · 23-09-2011 3:21pm

Confab wrote: »

It's very unlikely to fall near Ireland. We're a very small target.

Not that unlikely either. Nasa now rekon it'll probably come down after midnight and its due to pass over Ireland at 11.33 and 1.03 tonight so here's hoping. Forecast is for rain spreading across this evening to clear later

maquiladora · 23-09-2011 4:58pm

UPDATE 4:30pm Friday: Solar wind is no longer the main influence on the orbital decay of UARS. As a result, the satellite's descent has slowed down. Re-entry is now expected to take place in the early morning of Saturday.

http://www.astronomy.ie/uars.php

You can follow it here, just refresh it every minute or so to get an idea of how fast it's moving.

http://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=21701

gbee · 23-09-2011 6:10pm

looking like a miss now what. :pac:

Mountainsandh · 23-09-2011 7:17pm

The cloud cover is such here (Co Waterford) right now that there won't be a star to be seen any time soon anyway... so the delay might be good news.

maquiladora · 23-09-2011 7:19pm

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

According to RTE its due to track over Ireland around 2:30 tomorrow morning.

That does fit neatly within the latest estimated re-entry window, 00:00 - 04:00, so re-entry over Ireland is possible.

Have to remember though, it is moving very fast and Ireland is a very small place on a global scale. Only a slim chance it will impact us, IMHO, but worth watching since its still possible.

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 12:42am

Have spent the last little while watching it

It will be interesting over the next few hours...

Fingers crossed for a Leitrim landing lol

Mountainsandh · 24-09-2011 12:53am

Well I have followed it too and thanks to those who posted links here and in Astronomy, but have to go to bed now. I promise to post pics as soon as I locate my bit on my land tomorrow morning

I want a nice cylinder to make a quirky titanium glass top coffee table

Pangea · 24-09-2011 1:09am

http://www.astronomy.ie/uars.php
Taken from the above link

"As you can see, the flight path carries UARS on a path from west to east.

While the chance of human casualties are extremely low (1 in 3200), if the satellite reenters over Ireland at these times, observers will be able to see extremely bright meteor-like objects blazing through the sky."

Just had a look outside, I can see lots of stars tonight so hopefully Ill see something at half 2.

Wertz · 24-09-2011 1:35am

NASA saying 300-700 UTZ is expected re-entry time following a change in orientation of the satellite according to BBC WS report...fair chance of a land strike if it happens in the first hour of that window.
Still cloudy here...dunno if I'm arsed to stay up for another hour to look south on the chance it clears up...

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 1:37am

I think i will stay up too... its not too often we get this kinda opportunity...

When observing earlier I did see 3 shooting stars

and yup made wishes on them all !!!

Must see too if i can get camera working, but unless it really lights the sky (unlikely) i guess i will just have pics of blackness...:(

Pangea · 24-09-2011 1:52am

Wertz wrote: »

NASA saying 300-700 UTZ is expected re-entry time.

Whats UTZ?

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 2:16am

Had a look and can't find that time zone. Any chance it was UZT, Uzbekistan Time Asia UTC + 5 hours??

Right heading outside again for a gawk....

Trogdor · 24-09-2011 2:23am

Pangea wrote: »

Whats UTZ?

Not sure what UTZ is but "Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT)."
http://www.nasa.gov/rss/uars_update.xml

So i assume it's essentially GMT

sdanseo · 24-09-2011 2:26am

UTZ is a typo for UTC, I'd say. UTC means Universal Time Co-Ordinated, and is the same as GMT, i.e. one hour behind us during summer (when we operate on IST/BST, GMT+1) and the same time as us during winter.

Gonna head out and have a look in a minute and see if there's anything to be seen!

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 2:28am

Well it was a quick gawk... cause its now raining and cloudy. I can only see a very faint light off it but its too miserable to be outside now...

esp at this hour of night.... sigh....

Ah well... night ya all.... catch a fallen star and put it in your pocket, or perhaps catch a falling satellite and put it in your garden, after notifying the local law enforcement.. of course...;)

clumhoho · 24-09-2011 2:35am

Spent the last hour watching the skys. Plenty of shooting stars but thats it really. Perfectly clear night for it here in westmeath. Keep us posted if its sighted. Wouldnt want to miss it

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 2:40am

its just passed us a couple of mins ago and is heading into Europe....

http://www.lizard-tail.com/isana/tracking/index.html?&target=uars

I am watching this but know absolutely nothing about its accuracy etc... someone else provided the link earlier in the thread... thanks by the way..

Pangea · 24-09-2011 2:41am

I was just looking out, I think I seen it, I seen an object moving quite slowly with a very bright light, and the light got brighter at times but it was moving westwards rather than eastwards. I wonder was it the satellite, if not it was some sort of satellite. The south is cloudy here at the moment so couldn't see much that direction.

clumhoho · 24-09-2011 2:43am

So i missed it?

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 2:47am

Keep looking... its the weird jumpy light... if you watch it long enough you will see it move slowly in the sky... take a note of something on the earth in relation to it eg a house or tree and then note how its travelling.. You should be able to see it for a while even after it passes us. :cool:

The last view i had of it, it was the only thing visible through the clouds.

Wertz · 24-09-2011 2:52am

Sorry yeah utc not z... typos a plenty on this damm touchscreen.
Anyway seemed to clear up here (sure sign theeres nothing to see) and I watched for a pass. UARS myars..
.probably end up at the bottpm of the pacific

Pangea · 24-09-2011 2:57am

eskimocat wrote: »

Keep looking... its the weird jumpy light...

Thats pretty much what I witnessed too, light was jumpy.
To me it looked like it was moving from east to west, but the map on astronomy ireland says differently.
I guess its easy to be mistaken though when you are looking at something away up in the sky from down here.

gbee · 24-09-2011 8:55am

clumhoho wrote: »

So i missed it?

Seemingly so but if it had come down as expected to, like it seems to have in Canada it's trajectory was spot on for Ireland and you'd not have missed that show.

g0g · 24-09-2011 9:24am

LINK

A six-tones NASA science satellite plunged through the atmosphere early on Saturday, breaking up and possibly scattering debris in Canada, NASA said.
There were reports on Twitter of debris falling over Okotoks, a town south of Calgary in western Canada, most likely the remains of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, which had been in orbit for 20 years.
Scientists were unable to pinpoint the exact time and place where UARS would return to Earth due to the satellite's unpredictable tumbles as it plowed through the upper atmosphere. Re-entry was believed to have occurred between 11:45 p.m. EDT on Friday and 12:45 a.m. EDT on Saturday.
Stretching 35 feet long and 15 feet in diameter, UARS was among the largest spacecraft to plummet uncontrollably through the atmosphere, although it is a slim cousin to NASA's 75-tonnes skylab station, which crashed to Earth in 1979.
Russia's last space station, the 135-tonnes Mir, crashed into the Pacific Ocean in 2001, but it was a guided descent.
NASA now plans for the controlled re-entry of large spacecraft, but it did not when UARS was designed.
The 13,000-pound (5,897 kg) satellite was dispatched into orbit by a space shuttle crew in 1991 to study ozone and other chemicals in Earth's atmosphere. It completed its mission in 2005 and had been slowly losing altitude ever since, pulled by the planet's gravity.
Most of the spacecraft burned up during the fiery plunge through the atmosphere, but about 26 individual pieces, weighing a total of about 1,100 pounds (500 kg) could have survived the incineration and landed somewhere on Earth.
The debris field spans about 500 miles, but exactly where it is located depends on when UARS descended.
With most of the planet covered in water and vast uninhabited deserts and other land directly beneath the satellite's flight path, the chance that someone would be hit by falling debris was 1-in-3,200, NASA said.
"The risk to public safety is very remote," it said.
The satellite flew over most of the planet, traveling between 57 degrees north and 57 degrees south of the equator.
UARS was one of about 20,000 pieces of space debris in orbit around Earth. Something the size of UARS falls back into the atmosphere about once a year

g0g · 24-09-2011 9:36am

Claims of first video.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OfWgu5jk5g

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2011 9:42am

If you hear a rumour that the debris has fallen near Okotoks, south of Calgary, Alberta (Canada) this was started by a spoof video on Youtube.

Currently 0145 local time here, clear skies, going out for a look as debris may not have fallen yet, and intact satellite orbit shows another pass soon.

report when I get back.

g0g · 24-09-2011 10:02am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If you hear a rumour that the debris has fallen near Okotoks, south of Calgary, Alberta (Canada) this was started by a spoof video on Youtube.

Currently 0145 local time here, clear skies, going out for a look as debris may not have fallen yet, and intact satellite orbit shows another pass soon.

report when I get back.

I had assumed the Reuters link above would be reliable enough a source but obviously not!!! They hardly take their info from youtube videos do they!?

Be nice to think it was still up there and still some remote chance for a show in the skies here!

alastair · 24-09-2011 10:04am

gbee wrote: »

I think this is the spoof vis MT reefers to.

I don't think so. That video is from Oklahoma city.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2011 10:14am

No that's not the spoof, here's a link to the spoof. It's about 1:25 long.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74ksTCcgrgo&feature=player_embedded#!

(it may start midway, one of the lamest videos you may ever see) ...

Meanwhile, the six-minute video posted here appears to be two people talking about debris still in orbit, and while the title mentions Okotoks, they sound American to me and they mentioned Oklahoma City. Either somebody added the title because of the other video or they are also in the same place as the spoof, which would be odd. As of now, I am not aware of any credible report of this thing actually landing anywhere. How about you ??

(my recent look at the sky revealed rapidly increasing cloud, Jupiter fading behind it, and nothing much else)

gbee · 24-09-2011 10:15am

Thanks, for clarity I'm deleting my posts.

eskimocat · 24-09-2011 10:43am

About an hour ago, NASA tweeted that UARS had re-entered somewhere over the pacific. Precise re-entry time and location not known yet.

I can still see it orbiting on one of the tracking websites... and since NASA don't know where it is, I think maybe i should send them the link....:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

gbee · 24-09-2011 10:52am

One of the funnier comments on Twitter was "I woke up this morning to find huge chunk of satellite in my garden, only four travellers showed up in a van and took it away"

gbee · 24-09-2011 11:33am

I'm giving up on Twitter, 155,000 posts of the same update ~ nobody is actually reading anything.

UARS Satellite Possible Fireball 23RD

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