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Increasingly cold this week - frost widespread, risk of snow

2456

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    By 150 hours things look quite different on the 12Z GFS.


  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭MetLuver


    eyesquirm wrote: »
    Thank you metluver.
    I was thinking more on a "between the sheets" level, and couldn't see what the fuss was about...


    :D:D:D


    :D:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    By 150 hours things look quite different on the 12Z GFS.

    they certainly do


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    -15 in Scotland at 6pm next Saturday? :P

    ukmintemp.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    this evenings GFS is actually quite stunning

    i haven't looked at the charts in a few days but that really isn't that far
    from locking us into a real cold period.

    I am liking the way things are moving.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    this evenings GFS is actually quite stunning

    i haven't looked at the charts in a few days but that really isn't that far
    from locking us into a real cold period.

    I am liking the way things are moving.

    Yeh almost an easterly in FI but the cold heads into Europe instead.

    It's very different from the 06Z long before that though, ensembles & ECM will be interesting.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    this evenings GFS is actually quite stunning

    i haven't looked at the charts in a few days but that really isn't that far
    from locking us into a real cold period.

    I am liking the way things are moving.

    Generally going in the right direction. The UKMO is not too bad either at the end.


    In the shorter term on Sunday evening snow showers will start piling into the west but will struggle to penetrate to the eastern half of the country most of which may remain dry overnight. In the Southwest, West and North a dusting of snow is very likely to greet you on Monday morning.

    Monday will see further wintry showers in the West and North. But I think the snow level will rise during Monday and the showers at sea level will be more of the rain/hail/sleet variety by then.

    Tuesday still cold. More organised rain preceded by snow on high ground will turn things wet for Tuesday night. Turning a little milder. Wednesday a bit milder with rain clearing early to leave a good day with some sunshine (still feeling cold though). Then rain on Thursday followed by much colder weather again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 661 ✭✭✭Mayo_Boy


    would love to see some snow soon! I bloody hate this rain :mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭dfbemt


    Pangea wrote: »
    Karina Buckely mentioned snow a few times earlier, Jean Byrnes forecast was a letdown.

    Jeans forecast is never a let down once Jean is giving it ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Mayo_Boy wrote: »
    would love to see some snow soon! I bloody hate this rain :mad:

    Have to say I'd much prefer to see the rain to the grimy, diluted slop that the latest charts seem to be forecasting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Have to say I'd much prefer to see the rain to the grimy, diluted slop that the latest charts seem to be forecasting.

    You're never happy! you weren't happy when the big freeze came either! :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    You're never happy! you weren't happy when the big freeze came either! :P

    lig an roar spéartha!! :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Twas great just to see the blue temps in the forecast summary for the first time this winter!! BRING ON THE COLD!!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Jean mentioned the possibilty of thunder in sunday night's showers. Most likely to occur as the showers run up against the hills along west coast.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Heavy sleet in Edinburgh reported.

    Drumochter traffic cam, snowing. :)

    http://trafficscotland.org/lev/view/?cam=65

    And from someone on NW posting from NE Scotland...
    SNOWMAGEDDON!!!!!! -0.5c and heavy horizontal dry snow falling fast and now settling on all surfaces at 100m asl.Hows that for a grumpy old farmer who never gets excited by snow not half. Bet the cows and calves are glad we took them in last Wednesday.

    Thought that might cheer up the snowlovers!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Met Eireann :
    Tomorrow

    On Sunday, after a bright start in the south and east, showers will spread from the north and west to affect all parts of the country. The showers will turn to sleet or snow at times as the day goes on, especially on higher ground in the north and northwest. Feeling rather cold everywhere with fresh to strong, westerly winds. Highest temperatures 5 to 9 degrees Celsius.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 913 ✭✭✭TheFairy




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Hail here all day, might be a bit of snow on the mountains already.

    I'm stuck on the Donegal coast until Monday morning so probably won't see much more than hail and sleet here, driving through the hills should be interesting on Monday morning though :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭weathermaiden


    Jean mentioned the possibilty of thunder in sunday night's showers. Most likely to occur as the showers run up against the hills along west coast.

    THUNDERSNOW???? :D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 119 ✭✭kn2k10


    THUNDERSNOW???? :D



    Oh I remember that last year.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thundersnow


    What I love it that "Thundersnow often produces snowfall rates in the range of 2 to 4 inches per hour."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    You're never happy! you weren't happy when the big freeze came either! :P

    That's because he favours wind storms and thunder in Winter. Each to his own.

    By the way don't keep all the snow to yourself this week :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭smallwonder


    Harps wrote: »

    I'm stuck on the Donegal coast until Monday morning so probably won't see much more than hail and sleet here, driving through the hills should be interesting on Monday morning though :)

    I'll be hopefully be heading out the Muckish Gap Monday morning...unless the snow gods decide otherwise!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Harps wrote: »
    Hail here all day, might be a bit of snow on the mountains already.

    I'm stuck on the Donegal coast until Monday morning so probably won't see much more than hail and sleet here, driving through the hills should be interesting on Monday morning though :)

    One word for snow .......Menaroy!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    Hal1 wrote: »
    Looks how far south that 528 dam thickness is :eek:. If it comes to pass we'll have a similar snowfall to last winters.

    when people say widespread snow are they just talking about north and west of the country because iv seen no reports that the east or south will even receive a dusting yet :confused::(


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    jo06555 wrote: »
    Hal1 wrote: »
    Looks how far south that 528 dam thickness is :eek:. If it comes to pass we'll have a similar snowfall to last winters.

    when people say widespread snow are they just talking about north and west of the country because iv seen no reports that the east or south will even receive a dusting yet :confused::(
    Ya what about us in the south east!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I think the chances of things getting any colder at the end of the week than they will be Monday are vanishing with every model run. It seems the cold air will miss us to the east, with Friday showing a strong warming trend.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=75811976&postcount=178

    I think Sunday to early Tuesday morning will be our cold snap for now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I think the chances of things getting any colder at the end of the week than they will be Monday are vanishing with every model run. It seems the cold air will miss us to the east, with Friday showing a strong warming trend.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=75811976&postcount=178

    I think Sunday to early Tuesday morning will be our cold snap for now.

    You are always spoiling things Su Campu:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    this cold snap will last for few days . Its only good for Scotland,Crazy amount of snow will fall all week in Scotland.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I think the chances of things getting any colder at the end of the week than they will be Monday are vanishing with every model run. It seems the cold air will miss us to the east, with Friday showing a strong warming trend.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=75811976&postcount=178

    I think Sunday to early Tuesday morning will be our cold snap for now.


    I'd tend disagree there in relation to the end of the week and slightly with regard to snow potential in the next 48hrs. I also think away from immediate west coasts snow is very likely at ground level tomorrow evening in the Northwest and tomorrow night right along the west coast but particularly in the North. I'd expect the snow level to rise pretty quickly on Monday in the first half of the day. But there should be a dusting for many in those areas and any scattered showers that make it through to the East won't have to be heavy to see a dusting in other areas too as temperatures will be below freezing for most.

    I also disagree with the assertion that there won't be colder weather this week after Tuesday. I already said in the OP a slightly milder period on Wednesday. It should turn colder again after that as high pressure becomes established across the country. Very cold at night and temperatures not rising all that much above freezing by day and very severe frosts. Another possible scenario is a colder Northerly flow prior to the establishment of high pressure as illustrated on the latest UKMO run.

    In summary cold, wintry start...average middle...cold, wintry end though probably more for severe frost potential and ice from precipitation previously rather then any wintry precipitation at that stage on current trends would be my conclusion for the coming week.

    Stick by your forecast, we will see who is right on Friday! ;)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Nice to see the snow speculation raging again this year, its funny to see how exasperated some people are getting at the suggestions of less snow than last year for the season, I think people are forgetting how really exceptional last year was, even over the year before that. If we get a prolonged snow spell it would be some going 3 years in a row but heres hoping! Either way, looking forward to the clashing opinions and forecasts! Although I think people should reign in the glee a bit this year about any big freeze, I think we have to be concious of the financial struggle it will be for some people in our communities to heat their homes sufficiently through it. Hope that doesnt come across as a lecture, its just something thats been on my mind, so bear with me

    Anyway, can I ask the weather sages' opinions on potential sea conditions next weekend on the Irish sea, will be making Dublin-Holyhead ferry crossing Saturday 10th AM and back Monday 12th AM, just wondering if the battle between potential warming and potential cold outcomes might mean high winds? I dont mind if there are really, but Id prefer to bump my Swift seacat booking for a go on the grown up ferry if needs be! Thanks in advance


  • Registered Users Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Mmcd


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Nice to see the snow speculation raging again this year, its funny to see how exasperated some people are getting at the suggestions of less snow than last year for the season, I think people are forgetting how really exceptional last year was, even over the year before that. If we get a prolonged snow spell it would be some going 3 years in a row but heres hoping! Either way, looking forward to the clashing opinions and forecasts! Although I think people should reign in the glee a bit this year about any big freeze, I think we have to be concious of the financial struggle it will be for some people in our communities to heat their homes sufficiently through it. Hope that doesnt come across as a lecture, its just something thats been on my mind, so bear with me

    Anyway, can I ask the weather sages' opinions on potential sea conditions next weekend on the Irish sea, will be making Dublin-Holyhead ferry crossing Saturday 10th AM and back Monday 12th AM, just wondering if the battle between potential warming and potential cold outcomes might mean high winds? I dont mind if there are really, but Id prefer to bump my Swift seacat booking for a go on the grown up ferry if needs be! Thanks in advance
    By next Saturday you'll be able to drive straight across :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Met UK have no colour warnings out for Northern Ireland so Im not getting too excited!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Pangea wrote: »
    Met UK have no colour warnings out for Northern Ireland so Im not getting too excited!

    What type of precipitation is falling up your way atm?





    Dan :cool:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Been busy all night but think its still just a rain/hail mix here, chilly outside but only down to 4C


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    NMM model is predicting the first showers to start turning to snow around 12 this morning in the northwest, on high ground.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    After a little dip to a 24 hr min of 3.1c at 0800 we are back up to 3.5c at 0900 with a few point of 3.0. Just doesn't feel cold enough yet. We'll just have to wait and see.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Advisory from Met Eireann :
    Issued at 04 December 2011 - 06:53

    Weather Advisory

    Sleet and snow showers later today, tonight , tomorrow and tomorrow night will give accumulations over parts of Ulster and North Connacht and possibly cause some disruption.Occasional wintry showers will also occur elsewhere.


  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭smallwonder


    2 degrees here. Sleet showers. Muckish mountain has a slight dusting of white.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

    ECM develops a Scandinavian High in FI. Cold air massing east and north,ready to swoop in. Low pressure blocked out to the west and low pressure to the south. Salivating.

    Pity it probably won't happen....:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Am I the only one confused by all the threads ? Can't see forest for trees.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Am I the only one confused by all the threads ? Can't see forest for trees.

    I agree. This thread isn't dealing or focusing on anything more specific than the other one that was opened to deal with the wintry potential for today through to Tuesday. It's just seems all over the gaff and it is confusing.

    While it does look on the chilly side for much of this coming week I can't see anything of major interest happening that would warrant a second thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    its strange outside, its cold, (3.8c) but doesn't really feel it? Very humid as well, currently 95% here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    When (if) the first flakes fall today the numbers on here are going to explode as usual and confusion will reign (rain).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    irish1967 wrote: »
    When (if) the first flakes fall today the numbers on here are going to explode as usual and confusion will reign (rain).

    Lol:D.... This time last year was nuts here... Roll on the first few flakes and let the madness begin:D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Moderate rain shower here now. Less sleety than last shower. Noticing the M4 and M6 buoys are both showing gusts of 41knts so it's gonna get windier here in the next while. Still doesn't feel like snow though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Met.ie must of have seen an upgrade. Plenty Snow words thrown about in their forecast!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    People are confused already, is this not next weeks thread?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I'd tend disagree there in relation to the end of the week and slightly with regard to snow potential in the next 48hrs. I also think away from immediate west coasts snow is very likely at ground level tomorrow evening in the Northwest and tomorrow night right along the west coast but particularly in the North. I'd expect the snow level to rise pretty quickly on Monday in the first half of the day. But there should be a dusting for many in those areas and any scattered showers that make it through to the East won't have to be heavy to see a dusting in other areas too as temperatures will be below freezing for most.

    I assume when you say ground level you mean sea level? Ground level in many areas is 100 m or more, so yes, what you're saying is pretty much in line with what I was saying (we kind-of agree for once!). :D But if you mean sea level then I think maybe just in isolated parts of the north.
    I also disagree with the assertion that there won't be colder weather this week after Tuesday. I already said in the OP a slightly milder period on Wednesday. It should turn colder again after that as high pressure becomes established across the country. Very cold at night and temperatures not rising all that much above freezing by day and very severe frosts. Another possible scenario is a colder Northerly flow prior to the establishment of high pressure as illustrated on the latest UKMO run.

    I disagree. I said things won't get any colder than they will today or tomorrow, but it will still be mighty chilly. I do think though that winds will be too strong throughout for the widespread severe frost you're talking about, and as for temperatures struggling above zero - I think the coldest places will still make it to 5 °C, however feeling very cold when windchill is considered.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I assume when you say ground level you mean sea level?


    It was rather late last night.



    I disagree. I said things won't get any colder than they will today or tomorrow, but it will still be mighty chilly. I do think though that winds will be too strong throughout for the widespread severe frost you're talking about, and as for temperatures struggling above zero - I think the coldest places will still make it to 5 °C, however feeling very cold when windchill is considered.


    Depends on where you are in a situation where we have high pressure situated over or near the country. The very thing that will allow temperatures to drop is the clear skies and lack of wind. Your argument it won't be as cold depends on the orientation of the high pressure. If it is too far South then you would be right. However more likely it will be centred close to us so dilution of milder air is less likely and if it's positioned even slight to our North or East a continental influence may come into play. Either way it looks like winds will fall light and skies should be clear. That only means one thing this time of year. You could be right but I doubt it and I think we will see severe frost by the end of the week and temperatures will struggle particularly at night.

    Good signs on the models this morning for the medium term (beyond 144hrs) for coldies. But that's for another thread. This thread is specifically meant for next week as a whole including the milder period midweek. I suspect it will be snow talked about tonight tomorrow and Tuesday and more cold nights and frost end of the week.


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