Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 See Mod note in OP before posting

aidanodr · 11-01-2020 7:00pm

https://twitter.com/corkcitycouncil/status/1216055581863284736

squarecircles · 11-01-2020 8:39pm

Met Eireanns commentary on the upcoming disturbed weather.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

aidanodr · 11-01-2020 9:33pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Met Eireanns commentary on the upcoming disturbed weather.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

This was Written Friday afternoon, 10th of January, says it at end of article. So might be well out of date at this stage?

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2020 10:02pm

Hope the storm surge doesn't cause too much damage Monday night especially Galway and Limerick.

Galway

Limerick Docks

]

11-01-2020 10:18pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Who named the storm

Brendan?

Spanish Eyes · 11-01-2020 10:19pm

Brendan the Voyager, this could go anywhere.

11-01-2020 10:21pm

endainoz wrote: »

Looks like a fairly big one, could the mods make a technical and general discussion/moaning thread for this please? Can see things getting very congested.

Or as us moaners might say, any chance of making a separate thread for discussion without the weird funny coloured maps clogging everything up. ðŸ˜

greasepalm · 11-01-2020 10:28pm

Wow i wondered why i nearly got blown over in a very strong wind this morning in Dublin.I hope everyone is safe with this one.

JCX BXC · 11-01-2020 10:30pm

greasepalm wrote: »

Wow i wondered why i nearly got blown over in a very strong wind this morning in Dublin.I hope everyone is safe with this one.

Today's wind has nothing to do with Brendan, Brendan is on the far side of the Atlantic at the moment.

SnowyMuckish · 11-01-2020 10:50pm

I’m a long time follower, first time poster. I really love and appreciate the great input that the regular experts give us every day with the technical charts. Thanks so much guys, so informative! Superfan here lol

I second what endainoz said about the separated threads for technical and moaning/ general discussion so that people who love following the posts can shift through the dribble to get to the charts.

uck51js9zml2yt · 11-01-2020 10:55pm

Read this thread. Only 1 word springs to mind...."sh!te". ..where can I hide this this is over?

What Username Guidelines · 11-01-2020 11:33pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Hope the storm surge doesn't cause too much damage Monday night especially Galway and Limerick.

Galway

What's the bets we'll still see a bunch of cars floating around the prom car park.

ronnie3585 · 11-01-2020 11:35pm

Can we PLEASE have a separate threat for technical discussions regarding this storm. The gobsh*tery has already started and it will very quickly go the way of the last storm thread.

GoneHome · 11-01-2020 11:43pm

ronnie3585 wrote: »

Can we PLEASE have a separate threat for technical discussions regarding this storm. The gobsh*tery has already started and it will very quickly go the way of the last storm thread.

I just can't wait for the "I've a flight landing at 9 pm Monday, how will the weather be then" :rolleyes:

Thepillowman · 11-01-2020 11:52pm

GoneHome wrote: »

I just can't wait for the "I've a flight landing at 9 pm Monday, how will the weather be then" :rolleyes:

And the I've then to drive to Offaly what will the roads be like, will I be able to stop for a latte. Should I secure the wheelie bins. ðŸ˜…

JCX BXC · 11-01-2020 11:54pm

GoneHome wrote: »

I just can't wait for the "I've a flight landing at 9 pm Monday, how will the weather be then" :rolleyes:

Oh that's not it, you get all sorts but without fail! Some of the best include

*"Nothing here, non event" posted just before the warnings start.

*"When will this hit Dublin?" - posted following that very question being answered several times in the last few pages

*"Should I drive from X place to X place at X time"

And without a doubt, Met Éireann will have either underhyped or overhyped this event, and all weather misinformation generated by the pi*s poor excuse of media we have nowadays will be of course, their fault.

Rougies · 12-01-2020 12:04am

Separate chat/technical threads are great for events, but bear in mind they are a huge workload for mods to enforce. They have worked in the past, but only with constant monitoring and cleaning up/moving posts. As much as I'd like separate threads for this event too, I think they're only really necessary for major events.

Cork Boy 53 · 12-01-2020 12:12am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Oh that's not it, you get all sorts but without fail! Some of the best include

*"Nothing here, non event" posted just before the warnings start.

*"When will this hit Dublin?" - posted following that very question being answered several times in the last few pages

*"Should I drive from X place to X place at X time"

And without a doubt, Met Éireann will have either underhyped or overhyped this event, and all weather misinformation generated by the pi*s poor excuse of media we have nowadays will be of course, their fault.

In fairness a lot of those type of posts are people taking the piss/ trolling more so than genuine comments.

JCX BXC · 12-01-2020 12:12am

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

In fairness a lot of those type of posts are people taking the piss or trolling more so than genuine comments.

Are they? Unless I've really missed the sarcasm the vast majority are genuine!

Cork Boy 53 · 12-01-2020 12:21am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Are they? Unless I've really missed the sarcasm the vast majority are genuine!

IMO 25 to 30 percent of them are not genuine comments. But that`s just my opinion.

SnowyMuckish · 12-01-2020 12:23am

Rougies wrote: »

Separate chat/technical threads are great for events, but bear in mind they are a huge workload for mods to enforce. They have worked in the past, but only with constant monitoring and cleaning up/moving posts. As much as I'd like separate threads for this event too, I think they're only really necessary for major events.

Never thought of it like that! I hope all the dribble (mine included) doesn’t keep the regulars away, they seem to have gotten very quiet last storm and were really missed!

jimmynokia · 12-01-2020 1:00am

Cork Boy 53 wrote:

In fairness a lot of those type of posts are people taking the piss/ trolling more so than genuine comments.

Can that not just be put in the op and anyone that wishes to follow through just gets banned would make it easy on the mods.

Graces7 · 12-01-2020 1:09am

Timing has changed; earlier start than they warned yesterday.

Glad of good advice on that. .

West Mayo offshore island

aisling86 · 12-01-2020 1:59am

This is going to confuse alot in Munster!

JCX BXC · 12-01-2020 2:00am

aisling86 wrote: »

This is going to confuse alot in Munster!

Pretty standard, Infact the norm to have overlapping warnings.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2020 2:06am

This is the latest analysis from the past hour. The low is currently right over New Foundland and about 1005 hPa. In 18 hours it's forecast to be 968 hPa in mid-Atlantic, a drop of about 37 hPa, and 954 hPa in 24 hours, a total drop of about 50 hPa. For that latitude (~50 N) the definition of rapid ("bomb") cyclogenisis is a deepening of just 21.3 hPa/24 hours*, so this will do more than double that.

The centre's track just north of due east means it will keep out at sea as it occludes, halting somewhere SE of Iceland as a sub-940 hPa low on Tuesday. Quite a beast, but not far east enough to cause us maximum damage, unlike 1839.

* It depends on latitude and is calculated as 24×[Sin(latitude)/Sin(60)]).

GoneHome · 12-01-2020 2:17am

Graces7 wrote: »

Timing has changed; earlier start than they warned yesterday.

Glad of good advice on that. .

West Mayo offshore island

How are you fixed out there in the West coast, Grace, all provisions in?

Graces7 · 12-01-2020 3:06am

Thank you and yes indeed... My groceries arrived on Thursday, and even if they hadn't I can last two months with what I have in. Would get boring but there we are... so no real problems here.

Weather out here is a way of life. Dictates what we do in an interesting way. lol...

So today Sunday an interval of peace.

All OK With thee?

GoneHome wrote: »

How are you fixed out there in the West coast, Grace, all provisions in?

Guffy · 12-01-2020 3:09am

Will this stay orange or is there a chance it will be upgraded again?

GoneHome · 12-01-2020 3:14am

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you and yes indeed... My groceries arrived on Thursday, and even if they hadn't I can last two months with what I have in. Would get boring but there we are... so no real problems here.

Weather out here is a way of life. Dictates what we do in an interesting way. lol...

So today Sunday an interval of peace.

All OK With thee?

Looking bleak here for Monday, and I've an early start to go to the city for work (45 min drive), will reasses tomorrow and if it's looking too dodgy will take the day off

GoneHome · 12-01-2020 3:17am

Guffy wrote: »

Will this stay orange or is there a chance it will be upgraded again?

I would think the fact that it's at Orange two days out, could be telling that it will be upgraded going by current charts

JCX BXC · 12-01-2020 4:45am

Deedsie wrote: »

Some are genuine but thw majority are just looking for a reaction. Also boards.ie has an ignore feature.

I find the complaining about the troll comments almost as derailingas the actual trolls.

Monkey say monkey do?

To be fair, the conversation in this thread has been fairly light-hearted on the matter.

Graces7 · 12-01-2020 8:24am

Good morning!

Windy here; marine forecast...seems to be gales in every direction..

Have to rescue the sack of coal from half way down the drive today....and bring turf in from the north facing gable end...

West Mayo offshore island

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2020 9:10am

Expecting Brendan to rate a 40-45 score on that storm index, peak gusts will probably exceed 70 knots at some west coast locations, and 55 knots possibly 60 may be reached on east coast as windy occluded front passes.

Current location appears to be 48N 35W and rapidly deepening around 995 mbs now (was 998 at 0600h).

pad199207 · 12-01-2020 9:19am

UPDATED YELLOW WARNING

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Roscommon

As Storm Brendan tracks to the northwest of Ireland, southerly winds veering southwesterly will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h, highest in coastal areas.

There is a risk of coastal flooding due to the combination of high spring tides and storm surge.

Valid: 07:00 Monday 13/01/2020 to 23:59 Monday 13/01/2020

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2020 9:37am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Expecting Brendan to rate a 40-45 score on that storm index, peak gusts will probably exceed 70 knots at some west coast locations, and 55 knots possibly 60 may be reached on east coast as windy occluded front passes.

Current location appears to be 48N 35W and rapidly deepening around 995 mbs now (was 998 at 0600h).

I make it 48N 48W, the 997 hPa low just east of New Foundland at 06Z? Regardless, it's going to drop like a stone now.

Santy2015 · 12-01-2020 9:52am

Why have met eireann two different warnings in place?

kippy · 12-01-2020 9:54am

Santy2015 wrote: »

Why have met eireann two different warnings in place?

Applies to two different regions?

dmc17 · 12-01-2020 9:57am

kippy wrote: »

Applies to two different regions?

And different time periods

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:05am

Mod Note: please observe Mod note in OP .

Mod Note: This is expected to become a busy thread. Stay on topic to the discussion of Storm Brendan. Please use appropriate threads for all other discussion. Off topic posts will be removed. Any attempts to derail thread will be met with appropriate action. Your cooperation is required for the benefit of all.

Supercell · 12-01-2020 10:25am

Latest fax , looking a bit rough on Monday afternoon countrywide..

Mount Vesuvius · 12-01-2020 10:27am

Great to see how a low can pretty much double bomb and very interesting.
The front crossing the country will give very wet and windy conditions for a time. Then the second blast for the north west as the low veers past.
Storm surge and high tides look like creating the most problems.
I don't see too much wind damage as we escape the path , thankfully.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-01-2020 10:29am

The fact that it's a daytime storm will make the impact worse. A coastal red for the West is quite likely. After the salt hill wave surge before Christmas Met Eireann will issue a red that bit quicker

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:31am

ECM 00Z

Just my opinion and thoughts about Storm Brendan.

Might get more counties in Orange warning level , Wicklow for example looks very strong also for a time. The squally frontal passage that crosses the country from early morning will be the main feature for most I think , most places could get gusts up around 100 to 110km/h for a time. It is the combination of strong winds and heavy driven rain that will make it feel all the stronger and give difficult conditions. High sided vehicles will especially need to exercise caution during this event. Some very strong local winds may occur due to local topography and funneling effects. Along coastal counties especially on the coastal fringes and high ground might exceed Orange warning wind speeds.

Coastal flooding and damage due to erosion could be problematic.

uck51js9zml2yt · 12-01-2020 10:37am

So in summary, big storm coming, met eireann will be criticised for getting it wrong and cars will be flooded in salthill car park....again.

Is that about right?

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:39am

ECM OOZ

That is some wind off the W coast.

Achill and Mayo, W Galway, Donegal , W and S Kerry, W Cork ,Waterford, Wexford getting very strong winds that may exceed Orange warning level for a time especially on the coasts.

bazlers · 12-01-2020 10:39am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM 00Z

Just my opinion and thoughts about Storm Brendan.

Might get more counties in Orange warning level , Wicklow for example looks very strong also for a time. The squally frontal passage that crosses the country from early morning will be the main feature for most I think , most places could get gusts up around 100 to 110km/h for a time. It is the combination of strong winds and heavy driven rain that will make it feel all the stronger and give difficult conditions. High sided vehicles will especially need to exercise caution during this event. Some very strong local winds may occur due to local topography and funneling effects. Along coastal counties especially on the coastal fringes and high ground might exceed Orange warning wind speeds.

Coastal flooding and damage due to erosion could be problematic.

Meteorite, excellent detail as always. In percentage, how confident are you on the track of the storm? I could see it getting slightly closer. Obviously just my thoughts.

Graces7 · 12-01-2020 10:40am

Thanks all for detailed warnings. It helps. All is in prepared readiness out here offshore. No worries.

High tide is very loud just now, very full and strong.

West Mayo offshore island

Mount Vesuvius · 12-01-2020 10:45am

@bazlers,
Storms that deepen as quickly as this tend to turn left and stay offshore. I still think it's a devastating fish storm. We are lucky this time again.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:46am

A closer look at where might get some of the strongest winds, mapa bit crude but very useful.

To note that the wind speeds in bold white are generally high ground.

Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 ** See Mod note in OP before posting**

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Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 See Mod note in OP before posting