Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Loads of CAPE available tomorrow ( By Irish standards anyway ) .

Ireland's Storm Alley could get lively tomorrow !

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 Jun 2019

ISSUED 21:04 UTC Sun 09 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather complex pattern evolves across the British Isles on Monday, and while confidence is high in the macroscale detail it is considerably lower for mesoscale detail. The broad upper pattern sees an upper trough over the British Isles, with an upper low initially over Ireland drifting southeast to the Brest peninsula by Monday evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure centred over the Low Countries at midday will push frontal rain across parts of England and Wales from the southeast, with notable warm advection occurring over the southern North Sea on Monday night.


... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / SCOTLAND ...
Highest confidence during this forecast period exists over these areas, where a combination of cold air aloft combined with surface heating will yield 300-600 J/kg MLCAPE. This, combined with low-level wind convergence and topographic forcing will enable scattered showers to develop, especially from late morning and through the afternoon, before gradually decaying during the evening hours.

Some sporadic lightning seems likely, especially over Ireland where instability will be greatest. Hail up to 1.0cm in diameter will be possible from the most intense cells, though in general shear will be quite weak and so "pulse-type" convection will tend to be the most favoured mode.

Sunday looking like a lot of potential for convection . LP nearby feeding in rainbands, strong jet overhead with a lot of DLS and LLS available, plenty of vorticity in the mix, cold uppers and strong sun getting through breaks in the cloud , all peaking in the afternoon /early evening producing big heavy showers and sporadic thunderstorms a possibility but as we have seen over the last couple of weeks these in general are often short lived.

Could be seeing temperatures getting up to 16 or 17C in places during the afternoon.

Worth keeping an eye on the charts on the lead up to this. With that much shear available might be some possibility of funnel clouds forming .