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Epsom Oaks/Derby Meeting

  • 01-06-2021 10:53am
    #1
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Oaks on Friday and Derby on Saturday. Both races off at 4:30pm on either day.

    I’ve backed Noon Star for the Oaks. Feel like she’ll relish this step up in trip. Behind Snowfall the last day who for me stole the race from the front. 12/1 with 365

    I’ve backed High Definition (5/1) for the Derby. Got going late in the Dante and like Noon Star I think he’ll love this step up in trip. Bolshoi Ballet has looked brilliant in his last 2 but think he’s more of a mile and a quarter horse rather than a mile and a half and is too short in price for me.

    I’ve also had an each way bet on Southern Lights @50s a couple of months ago. 6th behind Bolshoi Ballet in the derrinstown but his run was stopped in the last furlong. I think he would’ve got 2nd with a clear passage.


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Looking forward to it. I'm very disappointed that Love is out of the Coronation Cup. Couldn't be having the terrible twins of Japan and Mogul, they could do anything or absolutely nothing.

    Hope Broome runs in the Coronation to keep everything honest. I will put a small bet on Serpentine if he runs, horses for courses ;)

    I've backed MacSwiney for the Derby, I fancied him since his Racing post win and he's improved since. In a field full of maybe horses he's the proven horse.

    Bolshoi Ballet is a smashing group winner, this is a big step up and he's very short in the betting. A more on song High Definition could easily swallow all but the best of horses in the last furlong ( a hold up Epsom Derby ride that Ryan Moore has been dreaming of for years and will probably miss out on ).

    There are some very promising English horses in the Derby but it's too hard to settle on one. Mohaafeth looks stunning but he's by Frankel and that's off-putting. The other two Frankel horses look as if Epsom isn't the be all and end all for them. The Sea The Stars colt Third Realm is hard to pass over, his breeding and training outfit are top class.

    Haven't digested the Oaks properly yet, it looks to be a poor renewal. Santa Barbara is running for the bookies and best avoided although she will most likely finish in the first 3. I thought Snowfall looked to have matured a lot in her last run and she makes most appeal to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Noon Star taken out?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 339 ✭✭chancer007


    anyone ever travel over for the Epsom Derby? Was thinking of going next year.
    Loads of flights to heathrow/gatwick.
    Interested to hear anyone's opinion who have been there regarding tickets etc..
    Thanks


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Noon Star non runner. Joys of Antepost


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Some fine picking by myself I must say


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 582 ✭✭✭deeks


    Very surpirsing that Ballydoyle are relying on one. They either think Bolshoi Ballet is an absolute good thing or some of the others have met with set backs.

    I've backed McSwiney personally. As said here before, he's proven in the grade unlike most of the others and winning over a mile in the Vertem Futurity is a decent guide to getting middle distances as a three year old. (Full disclosure - I'd also backed High Definition after the Dante in the expectation that he'd improve significantly from that run and I was quite taken with the way he stayed on late but thats down the tubes now).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,017 ✭✭✭Itziger


    Where's the "Last 420 year trend on Stall bias" post that we usually get at this time of year in the Derby thread?

    Surprising for O'Brien alright. Seemingly first time since 2004 (!!) that he's only had the one runner.

    You'd wonder who took the decision. Someone must have said. Look, HDef needs another couple of weeks and the other 3 are boats.........


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,933 ✭✭✭kksaints


    Surprised he doesn't have a pacemaker at least.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    They've a horse that can make the running. Don't see a problem, they obviously think he can do anything.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 582 ✭✭✭deeks


    Highland Chief looks big in the Coronation Cup.

    Won a handicap at Royal Ascot on his re appearance last year so we know he goes well fresh and subsequently finished very close to Mogul at Goodwood.

    He has a good bit to find on all known form but this could be a messy race and we all know Japan and Mogul could easily win or finish out with the washing so I'll chance a bit at Bet 365 enhanced 3 places ew price of 45/1.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 582 ✭✭✭deeks


    At the prices I like Saffron Beach in the Oaks. Santa Barbara could easily be the best horse in the field but she's yet to prove it and didn't look to handle the dip in Newmarket all that well so must be doubts about how she handles Epsom. Regardless, Saffron Beaches Guineas second is probably the best form on offer so 10/1 looks more than fair and thats where my hard earned will go.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    The brothers 1-2 in the Coronation is paying a big looking 23 and 28 on 365 . Disappointing horses yes, but both have a high level of form and it doesn't look at 25/1 shot to me . If the fav isnt Nijinsky, it has a great change of coming off.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Ground now Good to Soft. :mad:


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The ITV camera angle, can't see what's going on for the last furlong, why is the camera up in the sky. Awful.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,017 ✭✭✭Itziger


    zpehtsfd wrote: »
    Ground now Good to Soft. :mad:

    Who should that suit?

    Hmmmm, Santa Barbara very high head carriage in her one win. Was it the same in the 1,000 G?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Itziger wrote: »
    Who should that suit?

    Hmmmm, Santa Barbara very high head carriage in her one win. Was it the same in the 1,000 G?

    She's a bit uncoordinated for such a morning glory. Soft ground should help her, I fancy a big run for Divinely on that ground.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Sherbet Lemon is a funny one how she ended up going to Lemon Drop Kid. She cost a million dollars when bought by Coolmore to race she's a full sister to Mastercraftsman. Her three half siblings are all Galileo and ran for Aidan but I'm assuming she was sold when sent to an American stallion and sold there yet still ends up at Epsom which her Galileo siblings couldn't achieve


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,017 ✭✭✭Itziger


    tryfix wrote: »
    She's a bit uncoordinated for such a morning glory. Soft ground should help her, I fancy a big run for Divinely on that ground.

    Yeah, looks kinda ungainly alright. Head went up in the sky again in the Guineas and she wasn't really doing much at the end (Watch her romp home by 6 lengths!)

    Doesn't fill me with confidence though. Agree softer ground might help somewhat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Itziger wrote: »
    Who should that suit?

    Hmmmm, Santa Barbara very high head carriage in her one win. Was it the same in the 1,000 G?

    Going for Zeyaadah. Form on soft/heavy.

    Such a lottery when ground is like this. Real shame.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Hard to envisage an Oaks winner by Tamayuz


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Hard to envisage an Oaks winner by Tamayuz


    I think the 2nd and 3rd in the betting are shorter than they should be because they're the fancied English horses. The Kingman filly Save A Forest is my idea of a horse that's underestimated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    My god that was impressive


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 582 ✭✭✭deeks


    Wow. Didnt see that coming.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Dubai Fountain out with the washing after an absolutely huge punt. Being trained by Mark Johnston must be a stone handicap on any horse


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,017 ✭✭✭Itziger


    Wow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Once again the punters hoodwinked by O'Brien.
    Moore ? Could he get it any more wrong.
    No way they didn't know that was a superior horse than Santa Barbara.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    Once again the punters hoodwinked by O'Brien.
    Moore ? Could he get it any more wrong.
    No way they didn't know that was a superior horse than Santa Barbara.

    11/2 not exactly hoodwinked ffs


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    A 24lb+ beating of a 100 OR horse = a 125 rating in my book + 3lb fillies allowance when meeting the colts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    11/2 not exactly hoodwinked ffs


    All the same there's a question to be asked if O'Brien's hyping of the likes of Santa Barbara and many others is damaging to the less experienced punters who have no real understanding of the hype factory that is Aidan O'Brien.


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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Unreal performance


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,017 ✭✭✭Itziger


    tryfix wrote: »
    All the same there's a question to be asked if O'Brien's hyping of the likes of Santa Barbara and many others is damaging to the less experienced punters who have no real understanding of the hype factory that is Aidan O'Brien.

    Well, yeah, but should ya be throwing your money around if you don't know Aidan's 'best we've ever seen' spiel by now?

    He must be wrong more often that he's right with that stuff.

    Maybe Santa B prefers running in the morning ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    They've won an awful lot of classics since Moore took the.job and he's managed to be on very few of them.
    Maybe if he was resident here he might have some idea of which one to ride.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭jamule


    How unusual is it for a Oaks or Derby to finish on the stand side, I cannot remember any.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    jamule wrote: »
    How unusual is it for a Oaks or Derby to finish on the stand side, I cannot remember any.

    Thought the same thing a strange sight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭Rabbit Redux


    jamule wrote: »
    How unusual is it for a Oaks or Derby to finish on the stand side, I cannot remember any.

    Frankie has already won the Oaks on Balanchine and Kazzia coming stands side. I don't think it's ever happened in the Derby - not in living memory anyway.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    I think its an understood thing amongst the jockeys that you don't go stand side in the Derby.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,551 ✭✭✭chinguetti


    jamule wrote: »
    How unusual is it for a Oaks or Derby to finish on the stand side, I cannot remember any.

    Together Forever with Donnacha on won that rail too if the memory is right?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭jamule


    chinguetti wrote: »
    Together Forever with Donnacha on won that rail too if the memory is right?

    yeah, alot more than i thought, we should have seen the frankie stand side trend!
    Any derby winners? i have gone back a good few yrs on you tube without one.

    The next question is why, is its simply better ground but then why never in the derby


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Would be great to see Jim win another Derby today


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    jamule wrote: »
    yeah, alot more than i thought, we should have seen the frankie stand side trend!
    Any derby winners? i have gone back a good few yrs on you tube without one.

    The next question is why, is its simply better ground but then why never in the derby

    Tradition nothing more


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,840 ✭✭✭Panrich


    No horse drawn 2 has ever won the derby I think so I'm going for Third Realm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    jamule wrote: »
    yeah, alot more than i thought, we should have seen the frankie stand side trend!
    Any derby winners? i have gone back a good few yrs on you tube without one.

    The next question is why, is its simply better ground but then why never in the derby

    I believe they move the running rail in by about 7 or 8 yards after Oaks Day so that they have fresh ground to race on for Derby Day. This makes the far rail much further away and unfeasible as a tactic to win The Derby, even if the ground is better over there.

    Certainly, it has absolutely nothing to do with tradition. If a trainer/jockey thought it would improve their chances of winning, they would not hesitate to cross to the stands side in The Derby!


  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭Milanative


    what the actual **** has happened to the Derby


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,741 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    Some prices today winning at Epsom


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    byronbay2 wrote: »
    I believe they move the running rail in by about 7 or 8 yards after Oaks Day so that they have fresh ground to race on for Derby Day. This makes the far rail much further away and unfeasible as a tactic to win The Derby, even if the ground is better over there.

    Certainly, it has absolutely nothing to do with tradition. If a trainer/jockey thought it would improve their chances of winning, they would not hesitate to cross to the stands side in The Derby!
    No, tradition dictates they don't go that side in the derby.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Apparently Form doesn't matter as much as it used to do.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    **** me Moore is poison on anything he rides in a classic
    Woeful Derby yet again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    O'brien hoodwinking punters again sending that yoke as favourite.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,840 ✭✭✭Panrich


    tryfix wrote: »
    Apparently Form doesn't matter as much as it used to do.


    Certainly. I liked the form of the Lingfield Derby trial but backed the winner of that race. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 190 ✭✭PatrickDoherty


    O'brien hoodwinking punters again sending that yoke as favourite.


    Didnt know O Brien priced up the market for the derby.


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