Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Tea Shock · 29-10-2019 1:13am

Starting to see calls from Tory MPs around how the new Jan 31st Brexit date now allows Johnson to go back to the EU and renegotiate the WA to one more satisfactory on the Northern Ireland protocols

I truly despair!!!

Joe_ Public · 29-10-2019 1:14am

trellheim wrote: »

Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill ( her close spads) believed an Election would provide some unknowable mandate to get Brexit done ( sound familiar) and thus she went to the country in 2017 and lost a comfortable majority leaving the DUP to hold the balance of power - a situation that persists .

Read Tim Shipmans 2nd book for a lot of the detail here

My personal favourite was the sunday times spread which they devised to make May look more human and in touch with the people. So Hill screams the head off some underling for not doing her job and has the pm rigged out in 20k worth of gear to make her look the part. Back around the time she didnt look like a stooped 75 year old.

quokula · 29-10-2019 1:40am

Tell me how wrote: »

Who wrote the book do you know? Given the proximity to her holding the office, I think it is unlikely that it was someone who could be said to be entirely impartial.

I'm not really trying to fly a flag for her but I think she was PM during what was going to be, and has proven to be, a very contentious period.

She bowed to the invoking of A50 too quickly, she was too adamant on the red lines, she used language which made it easy for her detractors to target her (no deal is better than a bad deal) and she didn't manage vocal party or government members well.

But, was this all because of her, or because of the circumstance?
I'm not suggesting she is to be lauded, but, she was handed a poisoned chalice.

She played her part in creating those circumstances. She was the one always pushing immigration up the agenda, creating the hostile environment, and demonising immigrants every chance she got prior to the referendum.

Then in the wake of a very narrowly split vote, she drew up the red lines that meant pushing for the hardest, most acrimonious Brexit possible. There was very much an opportunity after the referendum for cross party consensus and something like an EFTA style arrangement that recognised how close the vote was. But she couldn’t stomach that because she couldn’t stand the thought of retaining any form of freedom of movement, or retaining European protections of human rights.

liamtech · 29-10-2019 2:01am

Just Reading that the new UUP leader Steve Aiken is refusing pacts with the DUP, and the DUP are going ballistic about it

Worth noting that this could have a serious effect in the NI election - as Aiken is a staunch remainer - could be a big coup for northern ireland unionist MPs shouting for a peoples vote - although could also mean SF take extra seats

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/10/does-ulster-unionist-party-have-arlene-foster-rattled

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/uup-leader-in-waiting-steve-aiken-rules-out-pact-and-slams-dup-for-tarnishing-unionism-38631900.html

MPFGLB · 29-10-2019 2:04am

seamus wrote: »

The collapse of every empire has been overseen by a string of awful emperors. It's par for the course that only the foolish will allow themselves to be put in charge of a sinking ship.

The British Empire collapsed along time ago ..need to go back to Anthony Eden

Bring on the election I say

Labour will be trounced such is the Brexit partisan feeling in the country
And hopefully this will force Corbyn out
London a Labour stronghold will see many lose their seats

I would like to see DUP lose alot of seats too as they have upheld the Tories and this mess when they should have backed a remain 2nd ref

Hopefully the Bexit Party will also not get the votes they want as Boris will make them irrelevant

It is possible Lib Dems could be comes the 2nd biggest party
And SNP will make big gains in Scotland

Even though this is not a second referendum it could be a GE result that could bring the MPs to HoC who would back a 2nd referendum.

Tony Blair knows the risks to Labour with a GE and he is right

briany · 29-10-2019 2:24am

MPFGLB wrote: »

It is possible Lib Dems could be comes the 2nd biggest party

Let's not go nuts.

MadYaker · 29-10-2019 6:21am

seamus wrote: »

The collapse of every empire has been overseen by a string of awful emperors. It's par for the course that only the foolish will allow themselves to be put in charge of a sinking ship.

I thought this when Boris said he was going for PM and I still think it now. Why not let somebody else waste their political career on brexit.

gooch2k9 · 29-10-2019 7:26am

Tea Shock wrote: »

Starting to see calls from Tory MPs around how the new Jan 31st Brexit date now allows Johnson to go back to the EU and renegotiate the WA to one more satisfactory on the Northern Ireland protocols

I truly despair!!!

Can't see that happening. He told Ian Og yesterday that the deal was what he was going with. Also the extension terms state no negotiation of the deal. I know the previous extension had that term too but he hasn't much left to concede without losing support elsewhere this time.

CelticRambler · 29-10-2019 8:16am

theological wrote: »

A referendum wouldn't solve anything here. The people already decided for Brexit in 2016 and it hasn't been honoured.

You keep going back to this point, even though (a) the people voted for the idea of Brexit, not the detail; and (b) the HoC honoured that vote by triggering Article 50 and put the UK on the road towards leaving the EU.

Running an election as a Brexit referndum is completely and utterly daft. The resulting government will be in power for five years. If (allowing a unicorn into the argument for a second) the LibDems were returned with a majority and revoked Art.50 on Day 1, would you say that all of their other policies should be enacted afterwards as the Will of the People?

Furthermore, GEs in the UK are not truly democratic because of FPTP. I'm not sure who it was I heard saying it on Sky yesterday, but treating the GE as a proxy Brexit referendum means it's entirely possible that the country would see a "majority" in favour of a hard Brexit even though 60% of the electorate voted against it.

Enzokk · 29-10-2019 8:52am

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Can't see that happening. He told Ian Og yesterday that the deal was what he was going with. Also the extension terms state no negotiation of the deal. I know the previous extension had that term too but he hasn't much left to concede without losing support elsewhere this time.

I think the EU is running out of patience, but like they did with Johnson if Corbyn would become PM they would surely give him a chance for a chat about the WA.

I don't think Johnson has any chance of getting anything else, he has had his turn so even if he goes there with a 100 seat majority the EU has had their negotiations with Johnson.

MadYaker · 29-10-2019 10:28am

We’ll all have to start lobbying our TDs to block the next extension request in 3 months!

Seriously though how will an election solve anything? They could easily end up with another hung parliament and then were back to square one.

Robert McGrath · 29-10-2019 10:31am

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

10 million wasted on coins

That coin thing is Roman bread and circuses stuff. How can they propose this to their electorate with a straight face

gooch2k9 · 29-10-2019 10:32am

I heard both SNP and Labour MPs last night stating an election would risk Johnson getting a majority and pushing through his harmful Brexit. This is true but presenting it like that just says to voters they're scared of an election and are against the "will of the people". If they highlighted that this majority could be achieved with only 35-40% of the vote it would at least highlight a genuine democratic concern to voters.

29-10-2019 10:47am

seamus wrote: »

The collapse of every empire has been overseen by a string of awful emperors. It's par for the course that only the foolish will allow themselves to be put in charge of a sinking ship.

The Empire finished over sixty years ago, but it is clearly a choice of leader when every one else stepped back and let one member take the hit.
Brian Cowen and Boris Yeltsin being two recent examples.

FrancieBrady · 29-10-2019 10:50am

So, is he going to get his election today?

Robert McGrath · 29-10-2019 10:53am

gooch2k9 wrote: »

I heard both SNP and Labour MPs last night stating an election would risk Johnson getting a majority and pushing through his harmful Brexit. This is true but presenting it like that just says to voters they're scared of an election and are against the "will of the people". If they highlighted that this majority could be achieved with only 35-40% of the vote it would at least highlight a genuine democratic concern to voters.

Yes, but if they highlight the unfairness of the FPTP system, they risk undermining their own authority if they form a government themselves in the future

Akrasia · 29-10-2019 10:57am

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-28/u-k-to-destroy-commemorative-50p-coins-in-brexit-meltdown

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50181485

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-gives-up-7bn-windfall-from-european-investment-bank-tq0qskgfc

So between 10 million wasted on coins, 100 million wasted on brexit ads there might be enough to put a slogan on side of a bus and drive it around.
Oh and the GBP7 billion in assets with EIB being given up is interesting, thats one figure we have not seen before in all the brexit accounting

That £7 billion EIB writeoff needs to be on the front of every election leaflet from Labour Lib dems and the SNP

Sam Russell · 29-10-2019 11:00am

Deleted User wrote: »

The Empire finished over sixty years ago, but it is clearly a choice of leader when every one else stepped back and let one member take the hit.
Brian Cowen and Boris Yeltsin being two recent examples.

The British Empire had a century of preeminence - from 1815 till 1914. WW I was a watershed for them. It turned out to be an unwise venture.

Well, the decline of the empire started when the USA entered WW I in 1917, as up to that point the USA had no interest in universal hegemony, but has made up for their late start ever since. They began their influence with respect to China (oh the irony) by preventing the break up by competing colonial powers.

The real end came in 1948, when India got independence. Since then, they have had a full scale withdrawal, with the last throw being Brexit. Outside of GB & NI are just a smattering of tax havens. Those tax havens are under severe threat from the onslaught from global tax reforms.

29-10-2019 11:23am

Sam Russell wrote: »

The British Empire had a century of preeminence - from 1815 till 1914. WW I was a watershed for them. It turned out to be an unwise venture.

Well, the decline of the empire started when the USA entered WW I in 1917, as up to that point the USA had no interest in universal hegemony, but has made up for their late start ever since. They began their influence with respect to China (oh the irony) by preventing the break up by competing colonial powers.

The real end came in 1948, when India got independence. Since then, they have had a full scale withdrawal, with the last throw being Brexit. Outside of GB & NI are just a smattering of tax havens. Those tax havens are under severe threat from the onslaught from global tax reforms.

Yep. And the Suez Crisis snuffed out any remaining cinders of Imperialism.

LuckyLloyd · 29-10-2019 11:24am

Tell me how wrote: »

Who wrote the book do you know? Given the proximity to her holding the office, I think it is unlikely that it was someone who could be said to be entirely impartial.

I'm not really trying to fly a flag for her but I think she was PM during what was going to be, and has proven to be, a very contentious period.

She bowed to the invoking of A50 too quickly, she was too adamant on the red lines, she used language which made it easy for her detractors to target her (no deal is better than a bad deal) and she didn't manage vocal party or government members well.

But, was this all because of her, or because of the circumstance?
I'm not suggesting she is to be lauded, but, she was handed a poisoned chalice.

She was handed a poisoned chalice and gulped it all down greedily, then staggered around the place engulfed in slow and painful public political death throes. She made no good strategic moves in her first couple of months, then spent the rest of her time desperately fire fighting and reacting to ever more intractable tactical issues. She was completely terrible and achieved nothing that she was tasked with.

Akrasia · 29-10-2019 11:32am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

She was handed a poisoned chalice and gulped it all down greedily, then staggered around the place engulfed in slow and painful public political death throes. She made no good strategic moves in her first couple of months, then spent the rest of her time desperately fire fighting and reacting to ever more intractable tactical issues. She was completely terrible and achieved nothing that she was tasked with.

Yep

When May took over, the debate in the UK was about whether there should be a hard brexit or a soft brexit. Norway, Canada, Canada plus etc
Retaining freedom of movement, staying in the Customs union...

She took charge and pursued the hardest possible brexit and opened the door to the possibility of a 'No Deal' as the alternative to her Hard brexit.

She began her negotiations on a platform that she knew didn't have the support of parliament and her strategy was to create a situation where there was no choice but to accept her deal or fall off a cliff, all because she decided to pander to the extremists in her own party and the DUP rather than reach across the Aisle and get a workable long term solution to the brexit problem

She took the overton window and rammed it so far to the right, that she gave the DUP the balance of power during the most crucial period in UK politics for a generation.

Tea Shock · 29-10-2019 11:39am

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Can't see that happening. He told Ian Og yesterday that the deal was what he was going with. Also the extension terms state no negotiation of the deal. I know the previous extension had that term too but he hasn't much left to concede without losing support elsewhere this time.

I know the Tory spin keeps saying the WA was renegotiated. But was it really?

They changed the backstop/customs union protocols to alternative arrangements which the original WA always allowed for at any time. The rest were changes to the Political Declaration!

Indestructable · 29-10-2019 11:57am

Labour supporting the election, only thing left is to decide the date. It's about time.

Enzokk · 29-10-2019 11:57am

Seems like Labour is biting the bullet and will back an election.

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1189129826357129216?s=20

So now it will be when they hold the election and the fight over the date. Labour should stick to their guns on the 9th December, don't give Johnson what he wants as much as possible, even with the date of the election.

Professor Moriarty · 29-10-2019 11:59am

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like Labour is biting the bullet and will back an election.

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1189129826357129216?s=20

So now it will be when they hold the election and the fight over the date. Labour should stick to their guns on the 9th December, don't give Johnson what he wants as much as possible, even with the date of the election.

It will be interesting to see what amendments they put forward.

Russman · 29-10-2019 12:03pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like Labour is biting the bullet and will back an election.

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1189129826357129216?s=20

So now it will be when they hold the election and the fight over the date. Labour should stick to their guns on the 9th December, don't give Johnson what he wants as much as possible, even with the date of the election.

Can the opposition, given the government is in a minority, simply push through a GE for 9th Dec anyway, now that Labour are on board ?

Imreoir2 · 29-10-2019 12:09pm

Russman wrote: »

Can the opposition, given the government is in a minority, simply push through a GE for 9th Dec anyway, now that Labour are on board ?

They could, if they all agreed on it, but that is something they have not done too often on anything. The government could pull their motion if an ammendment was passed that they really did not like. As for the date, given that they want an election, I doubt an ammendment of a few days difference either side will really make or break the motion for the Government when it comes to it.

An ammendment requiring a Brexit referendum, or including 16 year olds in the electorate, on the other hand would probably see the government pull the plug on the whole thing.

gooch2k9 · 29-10-2019 12:11pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

They could, if they all agreed on it, but that is something they have not done too often on anything. The government could pull their motion if an ammendment was passed that they really did not like. As for the date, given that they want an election, I doubt an ammendment of a few days difference either side will really make or break the motion for the Government when it comes to it.

An ammendment requiring a Brexit referendum, or including 16 year olds in the electorate, on the other hand would probably see the government pull the plug on the whole thing.

Funnily enough that's what Richard Burgon says they'll look for, along with voting rights for EU citizens. They'll support election without these though.

Joe_ Public · 29-10-2019 12:17pm

As things stand, only cabinet can table amendments. They have to win a stella creasy motion first in order to change that.

https://twitter.com/dodd_lisaadodd/status/1189112725496123392?s=20

liamtech · 29-10-2019 12:19pm

theological wrote: »

(1) A referendum wouldn't solve anything here. The people already decided for Brexit in 2016 and it hasn't been honoured. If it was a Brexit vote again it wouldn't be honoured by this dysfunctional parliament. The Lib Dems are starting to see that this parliament won't vote for a second referendum either so an election seems more plausible.

(2) What is needed now is an election in a clear policy platform to do with Brexit. If the Lib Dems won that could mean revoking Article 50. If the Labour party won then who knows. They have this bizarre policy of negotiating a deal and then campaigning against it. Then you have the Conservatives under Johnson who actually want to leave and get on with other priorities.

1. I know this has been said before but you really ought realize how ridiculous it sounds when someone says this.
'A referendum wouldn't solve anything here. The people already decided for Brexit in 2016 and it hasn't been honoured.'

The 2016 Referendum was an arrogant attempt by David Cameron to 'Lance the Growing Boil' of Euroscepticism in the Tory Party, by having the electorate kill it for him. It back fired and the infection spread to the British electorate creating a dangerous cult like mentality.

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-party-eu-elections-lucy-harris-economy-30-years-8919786

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-350-million-a-week-nhs-claim-1-6264572

It is widely accepted now that the referendum was a farce. And we are in the worst possible situation now that BoJo is PM. David Cameron was a party first politician, while BoJo is in fact a BoJo First careerist. This is BoJos ticket to getting a majority and remaining in power for 5, possibly 10 years. With Labor losing credibility by the day, and the Lib Dems unlikely to win sufficient seats to change the outcome, BoJo can sail in and take power.

A 2nd Referendum would lance the boil of both BoJo and Euroscepticism. Thats why he doesnt want one. Remain would win, Tory Euroscepticism would be placed back where it belongs and the Tory Party could return to normal.

2. As stated above, and by many on this forum, the british election system is First Past the Post. I am going to spell it out so we are in no uncertain terms, and for this hypothetical seat lets assume labor is remain.

-35% Tory [Leave]
-10% Brexit Party [Leave]
-30% Labor [Remain]
-15% Lib Dem [Remain]
-5% Green [Remain]
-5% Indy Group [Remain]

Result : Popular Vote Remain 55% - Leave 45%

ACTUAL RESULT: Tory Take the seat - Leave wins

And this is in a seat where the only parties are the main stream ones - you will get many seats where there are other smaller groups, and independents - and nationalists in Scotland and Wales - not to mention Northern Ireland

In all honesty, i would advise you to be more straight forward in what you are arguing for - Either you are

-for Brexit on Genuine Eurosceptic Grounds (You hate the EU)
-for Brexit on Principle/Pride (its not fair to ask the people again)
-or-
-You really don't understand what you are talking about, and are merely point scoring

Im sorry but there it is. You can of course report my post if you feel i am being insulting, but it is an offense to my eyes to have to read Tory Pro Brexit Nonsensical Arguments Against a 2nd Ref, without a shred of evidence in support of it. We get enough of that on Sky News, and the BBC, with them having to have Leaver and a Remainer on every discussion. The fact that Brexit is even being discussed as being a positive, after all we have seen, and learned, is quite frankly a disgrace, and a manipulation of the British Electorate -

I hope for a sane outcome, but i am rapidly losing hope - lets just wait and see. But arguments that a 2nd Referendum would be Undemocratic - Ludicrous

Note: If you are worried about what type of Brexit that should be put to the referendum - its simple - ask two questions, two separate ballot papers

Ballot 1

Do you still wish to Leave the EU
Yes []
No []

Ballot 2

If Ballot One passes for leave, would you prefer BoJo's Deal of october 2019, or a clean Break brexit

Bojos Deal []
No Deal Clean Break []

29-10-2019 12:19pm

Indestructable wrote: »

Labour supporting the election, only thing left is to decide the date. It's about time.

They really have to as they have had their demands met, they just simply can't delay any more in the hope of getting a more favourable (for them date.

Joe_ Public · 29-10-2019 12:21pm

As regards votes for eu citizens or 16 year olds, would there be time to get them on the electoral register? It shuts down for november so not even sure they could make an application right now, unless they can make some provision for it.

Edit: just heard norman smith saying it would take a year to organise it, so not exactly relevant to the actual poll. Still doesn't stop the possibility of an amendment of course.

jimmycrackcorm · 29-10-2019 12:22pm

liamtech wrote: »

Just Reading that the new UUP leader Steve Aiken is refusing pacts with the DUP, and the DUP are going ballistic about it

Worth noting that this could have a serious effect in the NI election - as Aiken is a staunch remainer - could be a big coup for northern ireland unionist MPs shouting for a peoples vote - although could also mean SF take extra seats

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/10/does-ulster-unionist-party-have-arlene-foster-rattled

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/uup-leader-in-waiting-steve-aiken-rules-out-pact-and-slams-dup-for-tarnishing-unionism-38631900.html

The UUP could be onto a blinder by pointing out that the DUP stance of saying no and in particular their brexit approach means they have been and are endangering the union. Its a great opportunity for them to distingush themselves as union saviours against the backdrop also of the RHI scandal

Its funny to see Arlene criticism of them not going into a pact for Nigel Dodds seat, as if the DUP are the rightfull heirs.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-10-2019 12:25pm

I predict Tories to take clear majority of seats needed to pass legislation.

WA to go through early January.

I wonder what will happen to the DUP? Can see them losing some seats.

Professor Moriarty · 29-10-2019 12:27pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The UUP could be onto a blinder by pointing out that the DUP stance of saying no and in particular their brexit approach means they have been and are endangering the union. Its a great opportunity for them to distingush themselves as union saviours against the backdrop also of the RHI scandal

Its funny to see Arlene criticism of them not going into a pact for Nigel Dodds seat, as if the DUP are the rightfull heirs.

Ideal opportunity to bring farmers and business on board too.

lawred2 · 29-10-2019 12:31pm

liamtech wrote: »

1. I know this has been said before but you really ought realize how ridiculous it sounds when someone says this.
'A referendum wouldn't solve anything here. The people already decided for Brexit in 2016 and it hasn't been honoured.'

The 2016 Referendum was an arrogant attempt by David Cameron to 'Lance the Growing Boil' of Euroscepticism in the Tory Party, by having the electorate kill it for him. It back fired and the infection spread to the British electorate creating a dangerous cult like mentality.

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-party-eu-elections-lucy-harris-economy-30-years-8919786

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-350-million-a-week-nhs-claim-1-6264572

It is widely accepted now that the referendum was a farce. And we are in the worst possible situation now that BoJo is PM. David Cameron was a party first politician, while BoJo is in fact a BoJo First careerist. This is BoJos ticket to getting a majority and remaining in power for 5, possibly 10 years. With Labor losing credibility by the day, and the Lib Dems unlikely to win sufficient seats to change the outcome, BoJo can sail in and take power.

A 2nd Referendum would lance the boil of both BoJo and Euroscepticism. Thats why he doesnt want one. Remain would win, Tory Euroscepticism would be placed back where it belongs and the Tory Party could return to normal.

2. As stated above, and by many on this forum, the british election system is First Past the Post. I am going to spell it out so we are in no uncertain terms, and for this hypothetical seat lets assume labor is remain.

-35% Tory [Leave]
-10% Brexit Party [Leave]
-30% Labor [Remain]
-15% Lib Dem [Remain]
-5% Green [Remain]
-5% Indy Group [Remain]

Result : Popular Vote Remain 55% - Leave 45%

ACTUAL RESULT: Tory Take the seat - Leave wins

And this is in a seat where the only parties are the main stream ones - you will get many seats where there are other smaller groups, and independents - and nationalists in Scotland and Wales - not to mention Northern Ireland

In all honesty, i would advise you to be more straight forward in what you are arguing for - Either you are

-for Brexit on Genuine Eurosceptic Grounds (You hate the EU)
-for Brexit on Principle/Pride (its not fair to ask the people again)
-or-
-You really don't understand what you are talking about, and are merely point scoring

Im sorry but there it is. You can of course report my post if you feel i am being insulting, but it is an offense to my eyes to have to read Tory Pro Brexit Nonsensical Arguments Against a 2nd Ref, without a shred of evidence in support of it. We get enough of that on Sky News, and the BBC, with them having to have Leaver and a Remainer on every discussion. The fact that Brexit is even being discussed as being a positive, after all we have seen, and learned, is quite frankly a disgrace, and a manipulation of the British Electorate -

I hope for a sane outcome, but i am rapidly losing hope - lets just wait and see. But arguments that a 2nd Referendum would be Undemocratic - Ludicrous

Note: If you are worried about what type of Brexit that should be put to the referendum - its simple - ask two questions, two separate ballot papers

Ballot 1

Do you still wish to Leave the EU
Yes []
No []

Ballot 2

If Ballot One passes for leave, would you prefer BoJo's Deal of october 2019, or a clean Break brexit

Bojos Deal []
No Deal Clean Break []

I wouldn't agree with the 'Clean Break' wording at all..

Words have meanings and 'Clean Break' quite clearly does not quite convey the magnitude of how unclean a break a no deal Brexit would be.

"A disorderly and complete breakdown of relations and agreements []" is what should be on the ballot

liamtech · 29-10-2019 12:31pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The UUP could be onto a blinder by pointing out that the DUP stance of saying no and in particular their brexit approach means they have been and are endangering the union. Its a great opportunity for them to distingush themselves as union saviours against the backdrop also of the RHI scandal

Its funny to see Arlene criticism of them not going into a pact for Nigel Dodds seat, as if the DUP are the rightfull heirs.

Oh its complete arrogant presumption - 'UUP please dont run against us, we might lose'!!! - isnt that an election????

Of course Arlene can count on some celebrity support too!!

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1188744380171067393

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Now, more than ever, unionism needs to unite. I am no fan of sections of the DUP, but they are the only party capable of standing up for the union. Absolutely appalling that the UUP would put in jeopardy unionist seats they could never win simply as a vanity project.</p>— Jamie Bryson (@JamieBrysonCPNI) <a href="

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1188744380171067393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October

28, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1188891833033723906

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Saw this extract from an article I had written 2 years ago posted on Facebook today. I still stand over it’s accuracy- especially as we continually see more and more ‘liberal’ unionists being used as republicanism’s useful idiots. <a href="https://t.co/qG2iM9FyCR">pic.twitter.com/qG2iM9FyCR</a></p>— Jamie Bryson (@JamieBrysonCPNI) <a href="

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1188891833033723906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October

28, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

hometruths · 29-10-2019 12:31pm

I predict the Lib Dems to do very well and hold the balance of power.

I think Tories will fall just short of a majority, without any options for partners to make up seats.

Lib Dems will refuse to work with Tories and a Labour led Corbyn. Gridlock unless Corbyn replaced. Though presumably he would be anyway if he has a bad election.

Starmer for PM in Lab/Lib Dem coalition > second referendum > both Lab/Lib Dem campaign for Remain > Remain wins > No Brexit is the will of the people.

Woo hoo!

liamtech · 29-10-2019 12:33pm

lawred2 wrote: »

I wouldn't agree with the 'Clean Break' wording at all..

Words have meanings and 'Clean Break' quite clearly does not quite convey the magnitude of how unclean a break a no deal Brexit would be.

"A disorderly and complete breakdown of relations and agreements []" is what should be on the ballot

I agree i wasnt suggesting that this be the wording - obviously it would need to be ironed out but thats roughly the jist

FrancieBrady · 29-10-2019 12:34pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The UUP could be onto a blinder by pointing out that the DUP stance of saying no and in particular their brexit approach means they have been and are endangering the union. Its a great opportunity for them to distingush themselves as union saviours against the backdrop also of the RHI scandal

Its funny to see Arlene criticism of them not going into a pact for Nigel Dodds seat, as if the DUP are the rightfull heirs.

Will Unionism go the way of the Tories and fracture and paralyze itself?

I doubt it will, something will be sorted to thwart 'themuns', but then these are fascinating times and at least the blame will shift from Dublin for a while.

CelticRambler · 29-10-2019 12:40pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So between 10 million wasted on coins, 100 million wasted on brexit ads there might be enough to put a slogan on side of a bus and drive it around.
Oh and the GBP7 billion in assets with EIB being given up is interesting, thats one figure we have not seen before in all the brexit accounting

Don't forget the £50m paid for those phantom ferry services, and the £33m compensation paid to Eurotunnel for awarding the phantom ferry contracts without due process.

Imreoir2 · 29-10-2019 12:40pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I predict Tories to take clear majority of seats needed to pass legislation.

WA to go through early January.

I wonder what will happen to the DUP? Can see them losing some seats.

Perhaps, but it will not be plain sailing for the Tories, they will have a lot of ground to make up from lost MPs in Scotland. Not to mention that the Lib Dems will be taking some seats from them in England.

It is not impossible for them to make up enough ground against Labour but the only test we have had in recent times suggest that the Tories are not as electable as they like to think. They lost their majority in the last election ony a couple of years ago, despite all predictions of a stomping majority, and by-elections since have not been kind to them.

ArmaniJeanss · 29-10-2019 12:43pm

Tories to have their poll-lead slowly whittled away in another terrible campaign.
Labour to be biggest party but fall shy of an overall majority.

Professor Moriarty · 29-10-2019 12:44pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Perhaps, but it will not be plain sailing for the Tories, they will have a lot of ground to make up from lost MPs in Scotland. Not to mention that the Lib Dems will be taking some seats from them in England.

It is not impossible for them to make up enough ground against Labour but the only test we have had in recent times suggest that the Tories are not as electable as they like to think. They lost their majority in the last election ony a couple of years ago, despite all predictions of a stomping majority, and by-elections since have not been kind to them.

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

Tea Shock · 29-10-2019 12:49pm

Corbyn on BBC earlier was like a kid on Christmas morning, so excited and optimistic - never seen him happier!

Not sure where his optimism is coming from and I hope it works out for him but all I can see in my minds eye on count night is a very glum Jeremy!

FrancieBrady · 29-10-2019 12:52pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

If the Tories don't deal with them the election could go any which way. God knows what will emerge in a campaign.

Professor Moriarty · 29-10-2019 12:54pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the Tories don't deal with them the election could go any which way. God knows what will emerge in a campaign.

Anything could come out. One possible profitable avenue might be a personal assault on Johnson's character. No doubt there's plenty of ammunition.

josip · 29-10-2019 12:55pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

Corbyn on BBC earlier was like a kid on Christmas morning, so excited and optimistic - never seen him happier!

Not sure where his optimism is coming from and I hope it works out for him but all I can see in my minds eye on count night is a very glum Jeremy!

For all his other faults Corbyn is a good campaigner and is most comfortable out on the streets with the electorate.
Contrast that with Johnson who is not comfortable with the general public, only with selected groups in carefully orchestrated events.
Cummings hid Johnson in a bunker during the Conservative leadership contest.

Tea Shock · 29-10-2019 12:55pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

God knows what will emerge in a campaign.

About 5 little Boris'/Borisette's I bet!

Russman · 29-10-2019 12:55pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

I wonder will they be a relevant factor at all tbh. It’s all very well to vote for them in the EU elections when most Brits don’t give a fig one way or the other about the European Parliament, but another thing entirely to consider putting them into the HoC where they could have an actually impact on people’s lives.
I suppose that assume the electorate are at least halfway thinking, and in these times, sense and rationality have most definitely left the building !

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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