Cheltenham 2020

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 12:25pm

In an attempt to restrict my liability i've cashed out a certain amount of my Champagne Classic bets, mostly the bets taken at 5/1 & 7/1 as there seems a clear possibility he is rerouted to the RSA.

If the betfair exchanges re BattleoverDoyen are somewhat reliable as in indicator, then you'd think its unlikely he'll run. But maybe thats just a result of Gordons words, and the fact he fell lto.

Dont mind losing money ap, but given the way this has played out, there's a chance to restrict my loses if he does go RSA so I'm going to take it

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 12:27pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I too love FD for the Arkle. He just beats Notebook.

We seem to agree on a lot. Wanna go for dinner?

Earendil · 24-02-2020 12:29pm

Slattsy wrote: »

We seem to agree on a lot. Wanna go for dinner?

See......"Sluttsy"

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 12:30pm

Earendil wrote: »

See......"Sluttsy"

You're only totz jelz.

24-02-2020 12:30pm

I hope Fakir runs in the Arkle. Got him at a nice 6/1.

Dr. Bre · 24-02-2020 12:41pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Lads I am genuinely starting to worry again re coronavirus
Seems a hot topic in last 24hrs again
Lads on morning Ireland advising people against travel for a few weeks......

A lot of Italian football was called off yesterday

NaiveMelodies · 24-02-2020 12:43pm

Slattsy wrote: »

We seem to agree on a lot. Wanna go for dinner?

My place or yours?

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 1:45pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Lads I am genuinely starting to worry again re coronavirus
Seems a hot topic in last 24hrs again
Lads on morning Ireland advising people against travel for a few weeks......

Seemingly the flood crisis in South Wales is now been dealt with and no domestic ministers have threatened to resign or be fired by Boris Johnson, he only reshuffled last week so current positions are all safe. That being the case the Corona Virus has further media opportunities this week.

In Ireland it looks like Wolfe Tone terrace is getting a hammering off the River Shannon, it looks nasty enough in fairness and Graham Dwyer is still trying to get away with murder.

It is not going to happen Raj. Get over it.

RivetingRoger · 24-02-2020 2:38pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Seemingly the flood crisis in South Wales is now been dealt with and no domestic ministers have threatened to resign or be fired by Boris Johnson, he only reshuffled last week so current positions are all safe. That being the case the Corona Virus has further media opportunities this week.

In Ireland it looks like Wolfe Tone terrace is getting a hammering off the River Shannon, it looks nasty enough in fairness and Graham Dwyer is still trying to get away with murder.

It is not going to happen Raj. Get over it.

Taklk dirty to me Moron!

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 3:48pm

What is the story with Felix Desjy? Still entered in the Champion hurdle, I presume he is injured?

They would hardly run him there first time out?

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 3:49pm

When are the handicap weights announced??

Croll · 24-02-2020 3:51pm

Slattsy wrote: »

When are the handicap weights announced??

Wednesday Im fairly sure

jj mac · 24-02-2020 3:52pm

Are those my feet?

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 3:58pm

jj mac wrote: »

Are those my feet?

The itchy ones?

Talcum powder for you pal.

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 4:15pm

Croll wrote: »

Wednesday Im fairly sure

Good man Croll, you've been a good soldier since you joined. Did you have a previous account???

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 4:23pm

Anyone any thoughts what race Early Doors will run in??

Croll · 24-02-2020 4:27pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Good man Croll, you've been a good soldier since you joined. Did you have a previous account???

Cheers Slattsy haha, nope Im new to the forums! Most my mates havent too much interest in racing so its good to chat with others with a good knowledge and get second opinions

Slattsy · 24-02-2020 4:28pm

Croll wrote: »

Cheers Slattsy haha, nope Im new to the forums! Most my mates havent too much interest in racing so its good to chat with others with a good knowledge and get second opinions

You came to the wrong place so.

Croll · 24-02-2020 4:40pm

Slattsy wrote: »

You came to the wrong place so.

I figured that when i seen someone say tiger roll could win the GC:D will be interesting to see what mark early doors is given alright, had him and hazel hill in a double to end the week last year

RivetingRoger · 24-02-2020 4:52pm

You have to record yourself dressed up as Bananaman giving us a verse of some Gangstas Paradise and post it up here Croll
Then you will truly be one of us.....

That or the winner of the last in Wolverhampton will also do

If Sluttsy likes you it's a good start tho....

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 4:54pm

Croll wrote: »

I figured that when i seen someone say tiger roll could win the GC:D will be interesting to see what mark early doors is given alright, had him and hazel hill in a double to end the week last year

I think they should give him a shot at the stayers if I am honest.:p

But the Gold Cup is not far fetched, at all. He is rated the same as Delta Work.

Apart from that he won the 4 miler a few years back, handy, and has won a Munster National over 3 miles. so he has the speed and the stamina.

I actually think he should have gone Gold Cup last year, given what he achieved. The biggest negative this year would be that he is now a 10 year old, they don't have a great record in the race.

Croll · 24-02-2020 4:58pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

You have to record yourself dressed up as Bananaman giving us a verse of some Gangstas Paradise and post it up here Croll
Then you will truly be one of us.....

That or the winner of the last in Wolverhampton will also do

If Sluttsy likes you it's a good start tho....

Ill take my chances with wolverhampton so haha.

Tigers my favourite horse in training but he just wouldnt have the turn of foot for a GC in my opinion, a stayers though just maybe

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 5:01pm

Croll wrote: »

Ill take my chances with wolverhampton so haha.

Tigers my favourite horse in training but he just wouldnt have the turn of foot for a GC in my opinion, a stayers though just maybe

Lash him out in front after a circuit, Denman style... they wouldn't be able to keep up.

madmoose · 24-02-2020 5:30pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Anyone any thoughts what race Early Doors will run in??

Maybe the novice cap as he won the Pipe over that trip, i had him down as a stayer at the start of the season and backed him for the NH Chase before he was scratched.

RivetingRoger · 24-02-2020 6:58pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Lash him out in front after a circuit, Denman style... they wouldn't be able to keep up.

Twould be the way to do it alright
Make all or die trying

I'd say he wouldn't be too far off it lads
Al Boum is no superstar and he won it

(ducks for cover from incoming WPM brigade..)

madmoose · 24-02-2020 7:09pm

Read someone say the owners of Ravenhil want Codd on for the KM and Gary OBrien mentioned the horse and Codd before and he is all blue from 25/1 to 14/1 having looked on oddschecker.

Dr. Bre · 24-02-2020 7:26pm

I will prob have my smallest bet ever in the gold cup as I don’t fancy anyone. Maybe clan des

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 9:02pm

madmoose wrote: »

Read someone say the owners of Ravenhil want Codd on for the KM and Gary OBrien mentioned the horse and Codd before and he is all blue from 25/1 to 14/1 having looked on oddschecker.

I doubt it will be the first or the last handicap plunge we hear about at this stage of the year. He is a 10 year old, doubt there is much improvement left in the horse.

Where did you read it? You might want to clarify if the Pipes have anything in it as he has won it a few times with them also? Codd pulled him up in a maiden hurdle a few years back, it doesn't exactly scream 2 year plot job either.

Only 12's now with Powers, madness, the weights are not even released for 48 hours.

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 9:19pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Twould be the way to do it alright
Make all or die trying

I'd say he wouldn't be too far off it lads
Al Boum is no superstar and he won it

(ducks for cover from incoming WPM brigade..)

I would say placed at least Raj. But I doubt we will ever find out.

I watched Paul Nicholls interview with Nick Luck. He definitely intimated that Frodon is going Ryanair, but still in the Gold Cup. In fairness to Nicholls he shoots from the hip, he gives it like pear cider. I reckon my AP on Frodon is goosed. My festival is getting off to a shocker, I have lost a tenner already.

On Frodon, he also mentioned that they were disappointed with his Haydock Betfair Chase run before Christmas and that they found a few ulcers on him. He did not seem overly concerned but literally a health warning for me, he has come out and won since. But I would not be crazy about getting heavy on him in the Ryanair either. Although I will back him wherever he goes, he owes me nothing.

I would love to see A Plus Tard in the Queen mother, just saying. I get that the Ryanair will possibly be easier to win, but would love to see him thrown in the mix. Blackmore would want to be careful not to let Frodon get too far ahead, he is a gutsy liddle phucker.

stretchaq · 24-02-2020 10:11pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I doubt it will be the first or the last handicap plunge we hear about at this stage of the year. He is a 10 year old, doubt there is much improvement left in the horse.

Where did you read it? You might want to clarify if the Pipes have anything in it as he has won it a few times with them also? Codd pulled him up in a maiden hurdle a few years back, it doesn't exactly scream 2 year plot job either.

Only 12's now with Powers, madness, the weights are not even released for 48 hours.

Couldn’t see Jamie rideing him also couldn’t see him being good enough, would have to think codd rides le breuil

spuddiesal · 24-02-2020 10:14pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I too love FD for the Arkle. He just beats Notebook.

How is he going to beat him on even weights? Was getting a 7lb allowance last time and beaten 1.5 lengths.

madmoose · 24-02-2020 10:51pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I doubt it will be the first or the last handicap plunge we hear about at this stage of the year. He is a 10 year old, doubt there is much improvement left in the horse.

Where did you read it? You might want to clarify if the Pipes have anything in it as he has won it a few times with them also? Codd pulled him up in a maiden hurdle a few years back, it doesn't exactly scream 2 year plot job either.

Only 12's now with Powers, madness, the weights are not even released for 48 hours.

From another racing forum this was the post but GOB mentioned on his betfair post earlier

“Had a bet on Ravenhill for this. Neighbours own the horse, i was told the main plan is here and they hoped Codd would ride. Nothing certain but NRNB 25/1 was attractive.

I see he’s shortened now, so a bit of price aftertiming”

Andrew00 · 24-02-2020 11:00pm

I still think City Island is a stonking e/w bet in the Stayers Hurdle.

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 11:12pm

madmoose wrote: »

From another racing forum this was the post but GOB mentioned on his betfair post earlier

“Had a bet on Ravenhill for this. Neighbours own the horse, i was told the main plan is here and they hoped Codd would ride. Nothing certain but NRNB 25/1 was attractive.

I see he’s shortened now, so a bit of price aftertiming”

It sounds iffy. It might be a handicap but the race tends to be won by genuine types that have been on the easy list for a while to get a nice mark. I don't think Ravenhill is near the standard required, it has been a decent Grand National trial. Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, Cause of Causes. I cannot see it with Ravenhill and never at 12/1.

But this is what happens now, this is where all the bull starts. Pundit colums and preview nights. In fairness to Gary O'Brien he has a decent head for picking winners, but I can't help feeling that brokers take what they say and start collapsing the price. The owners would have had a few quid at AP already, so the price collapse would not be from them, particularly as the weights are not out yet?

As I said these "plunges" will be getting highlighted for the next two weeks. I put them all down to the waffle section and look for value elsewhere.

It does look like he got ew money for the Troytown and at 142 he should get in the race. But getting improvement out of him would have to be a concern. Jamie Codd might have farmed the race but he is not the only conditional in the world? Be interesting to see what some of the younger Irish conditionals get up on.

Gringo180 · 24-02-2020 11:18pm

spuddiesal wrote: »

How is he going to beat him on even weights? Was getting a 7lb allowance last time and beaten 1.5 lengths.

Wouldnt be the first time form has been reversed along those lines. Happens all the time.

NaiveMelodies · 24-02-2020 11:28pm

spuddiesal wrote: »

How is he going to beat him on even weights? Was getting a 7lb allowance last time and beaten 1.5 lengths.

He just does.

Should have won at Leop imo and he'll be that bit fresher for Cheltenham.
I probably underrate Notebook tbf.

spuddiesal · 24-02-2020 11:35pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

He just does.

Should have won at Leop imo and he'll be that bit fresher for Cheltenham.
I probably underrate Notebook tbf.

I think fakir will run in Marsh. O’Brien will figure out they can’t beat Notebook. There is no proof out there that he can improve 8.5 lengths.
Who has fakir actually beat?

lemush · 25-02-2020 12:13am

spuddiesal wrote: »

How is he going to beat him on even weights? Was getting a 7lb allowance last time and beaten 1.5 lengths.

Very black and white way of looking at things.

Croll · 25-02-2020 12:31am

lemush wrote: »

Very black and white way of looking at things.

To be fair he’s spot on, fakir isn’t reversing the form with an extra 7 pounds to make up

IAMAMORON · 25-02-2020 12:33am

stretchaq wrote: »

Couldn’t see Jamie rideing him also couldn’t see him being good enough, would have to think codd rides le breuil

He was placed in the Kerry National, so there is ability there. But his profile says no. He is a 10 year old and only started chasing last summer. He was pointing 4 years ago so Elliott has done great with him, but not at the prices.

I would rather be on Le Breuil for sure.

lemush · 25-02-2020 12:40am

Croll wrote: »

To be fair he’s spot on, fakir isn’t reversing the form with an extra 7 pounds to make up

He’s not spot on. There’s variables after variables that could have an impact in the reversing of the form. If it was that black and white we’d all be millionaires.

Plasandrunt · 25-02-2020 2:06am

Cash Back beats both Fakir and Notebook

spuddiesal · 25-02-2020 10:04am

lemush wrote: »

He’s not spot on. There’s variables after variables that could have an impact in the reversing of the form. If it was that black and white we’d all be millionaires.

We will see on the day. I just can’t see how anyone could back him. Put it this way. If Honeysuckle wasn’t getting the 7lb allowance in Irish champion hurdle she would have finished out of the top 4. Fakir finished 4th in a poor supreme and was getting a 8lb allowance!
They will need to step him up to try find improvement.

Croll · 25-02-2020 10:10am

spuddiesal wrote: »

We will see on the day. I just can’t see how anyone could back him. Put it this way. If Honeysuckle wasn’t getting the 7lb allowance in Irish champion hurdle she would have finished out of the top 4. Fakir finished 4th in a poor supreme and was getting a 8lb allowance!
They will need to step him up to try find improvement.

Agreed it's not impossible, but dont see how anyone could pick gim at 5/6s instead of Notebook at 11/4 given the task he has in reversing the form + an extra 7 lbs

redzerdrog · 25-02-2020 10:33am

Croll wrote: »

Agreed it's not impossible, but dont see how anyone could pick gim at 5/6s instead of Notebook at 11/4 given the task he has in reversing the form + an extra 7 lbs

Course form

Croll · 25-02-2020 10:46am

redzerdrog wrote: »

Course form

4th in Supreme and won a poor trial, would you say thats good enough course form to make you back him?

Gavin "shels" · 25-02-2020 10:55am

Lovely...

https://www.facebook.com/racingtv/videos/220862439093570/

spuddiesal · 25-02-2020 10:59am

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Cash Back beats both Fakir and Notebook

Cash Back worth backing now. If Fakir goes Marsh he will go to about 3/1. That was cash backs first hard race over fences so hopefully he can improve more than NB.

Slattsy · 25-02-2020 11:05am

Gavin shels wrote: »

Lovely...

https://www.facebook.com/racingtv/videos/220862439093570/

Whats this? In work cant open bookface as i dont have it.

Slattsy · 25-02-2020 11:20am

Notebook a very solid fav alright lads and could well be hard to beat, he always seems to just do enough in front.
But i personally thought Walsh gave Fakir a bit of a shocker at Leopardstown, i think he was too confident, gave Rachel too much rope.
The prices are probably right. Fakir twice the price of Notebook, seems fair.

The 7lb swing makes it tougher alright, but different course, different ground, maybe a different ride, Notebook beaten 50 lengths at Cheltenham last year.. there's a lot of variables.

Chance he goes JLT but if ground if soft i'd say he 100% rocks up in the Arkle.

Cheltenham 2020

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