Property Market 2019

Bob24 · 04-01-2019 11:44am

Bluefoam wrote: »

That really isn't clear from your original post... I've re-read it and your conculsion does not say vaugely that, let alone precisely.

Here are some exemples of things to read in the post whereby I am indeed saying that:

Bob24 wrote: »

not only almost every person I know is still on it, but they are also all heavily relying on WhatsApp, with many on Instagram

[...]

I am not sure people care that much and will leave.

[...]

the network effect is working very well for them.

tobsey · 04-01-2019 11:50am

Villa05 wrote: »

The whole point of many posts here is that if we had a mature attitude to the property market we would avoid the worst of the damage caused by recessions. The property market operates in a boom bust cycle by choice and government policy.
It is quiet simple to avoid these cycles and have a functioning property market

There is no evidence of the property market operating in a boom bust cycle. The economy as a whole has, but not property. Only once in the history of the state have property prices dropped at any noticable level, and that was 2009-2013. Even during the recession of the 1980s property prices weren't effected.

Moonjet wrote: »

It also may not even cause the reduction in property prices everyone is hoping and waiting for.
The input parameters are completely different this time.

Going into 2008 recession we had a chronic oversupply of property, with banks insanely over-leveraged on mortgages.

Going into (potential) 2019/2020 recession we have a chronic undersupply of property with much tighter lending restrictions in place for the last 4 years.

It's not going to play out the same as 2008-2013.

This is a very reasonable argument as to why even a recession won't effect property prices as much as last time. People were so heavily indebted, and it didn't even take that many people, that they were forced in to firesales to try get access to cash. People were buying one property, waiting for the equity to be built up due to rising property prices and use that as collateral for the next purchase. It was all a big house of cards that came crashing down. Now there are much stricter lending rules, the value if property could drop at least 10%, maybe 20% before there would be a big concern about negative equity.

smurgen · 04-01-2019 12:09pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

Condescending answer which also shows the person who wrote it didn’t actuslly read the post they were replying to.

I am precisely saying that I think it is unlikely for people to leave en masse.

That really isn't clear from your original post... I've re-read it and your conculsion does not say vaugely that, let alone precisely.

Anyway, in relation to FB, Google at al, and their impact on Irish property prices... While they reside here, the management of the biusiness related to this island is minor, they are interested in big global swings... Their current concentration is emerging markets and they will keep people on this island busy for many years, iresepected of local recession.

Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

LotharIngum · 04-01-2019 12:13pm

smurgen wrote: »

Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

If their wages are cut significantly imagine how the wages in the rest of the country will be effected.

Bob24 · 04-01-2019 12:16pm

smurgen wrote: »

Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

They could also slow down on hiring due to reduced growth on their end.

But I think the real question is the tax regime. Voices are getting louder and louder in Brussels to harmonise taxation of these companies accross the EU. It might not go anywhere as the EU is a messy beast, but if it does this will have a huge impact on Ireland (some people might like to think tax rates are irrelevant and besides they ireland still is the single greatest country in Europe to operate EMEA headquarters, but it is far from true and while neither the government nor companies can say it publicly - law taxation is one of the main reasons they are here). Again this is pure speculation and not guaranteed to happen, but if we were force to hike-up corporate tax or even just to make sure these companies are paying the headline rate, it would probably impact employement as well as immigration of qualified workers, and in turn property prices.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 04-01-2019 12:20pm

Bob24 wrote: »

They could also slow down on hiring due to reduced growth on their end.

But I think the real question is the tax regime. Voices are getting louder and louder in Brussels to harmonise taxation of these companies accross the EU. It might not go anywhere as the EU is a messy beast, but if it does this will have a huge impact on Ireland (some people might like to think tax rates are irrelevant and besides they ireland still is the single greatest country in Europe to operate EMEA headquarters, but it is far from true and while neither the government nor companies can say it publicly - law taxation is one of the main reasons they are here).

Good thing we have a veto on tax issues then isn't it.

I have absolutely no issue with discussing facts and realistic economic outlooks. But there seems to be a few in here that seem catastrophic economic collapse as inevitable, and that this collapse will somehow result in them personally getting a house for half nothing. The current landscape does not point to that, much as some would wish it. Not specifically saying you Bob btw, just a general observation.

Bob24 · 04-01-2019 12:36pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Good thing we have a veto on tax issues then isn't it.

If enough countries (especially large ones like France and Germany) gang-up to change things an Irish veto means nothing.

Either they will find work arounds to change what is happening in practice without affecting rules that can be vetoed, or they can pressure ireland into the change (for exemple we have made ourselves ultra-reliant on the EU with relations to many pre and post Brexit issues which reduces our capacity to say no on other matters).

Also, keep in mind that in many European countries voters are asking for this taxation model to change and threatening to vote for anti-EU parties if nothing is done. This has already forced some governments (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia) to act unilateraly and try to change things with national laws. The EU elections are coming and there is a real possibility that many key countries will send a majority of “populist” MEPs to the EU parliament. At some point people in Brussels and some EU capitals could very possibly think that forcing a few changes upon Ireland and of few “minor” countries is better than allowing these parties en masse in the parliament and risking them controlling more national governments.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 04-01-2019 12:39pm

Bob24 wrote: »

If enough countries (especially large ones like France and Germany) gang-up to change things an Irish veto means nothing.

Either they will find work arounds to change what is appending in the ground without affecting anything that can be vetoed, or they can pressure ireland into the change (for exemple we have mad ourselves ultra-reliant on the EU with relations to many pre and post Brexit issues which reduces our capacity to say no on other matters).

Also, keep in mind that in many European countries voters are asking for this taxation model to change and threatening to vote for anti-EU parties if nothing is done. This has already forced some governments (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia) to act unilateraly and try to change things with national laws. The EU elections are coming and there is a real possibility that many key countries will send a majority of “populist” MEPs to the EU parliament. At some point people in Brussels and some EU capitals could very possibly think that forcing a few changes upon Ireland and of few “minor” countries is better than allowing these parties en masse in the parliament and risking them countering more national governments.

They could do alright but that would be the end of the EU as we know it. Ourselves, the Dutch, Hungary and Belgium are all against tax harmonization. If it was forced down our throats the EU as it currently is wouldn't survive. It's either become the federal states of Europe or break up altogether. The effects of either are impossible to predict as it's such a huge departure from where we stand now.

Bob24 · 04-01-2019 1:01pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

They could do alright but that would be the end of the EU as we know it.

What I’m arguing though is that we might be close to a situation whereby not doing is would be the end of the EU as we know it as well (with the European Parliament having a majority of euro sceptic MEPs, and national governments in large countries willing to change the status quo a lot more). At some point I believe it could very possibly come to choosing between the lesser evil and even our governement might decide that it is a better move to compromise on taxation matters rather that risking to break a free trade zone which is key to our economy.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 04-01-2019 1:06pm

Bob24 wrote: »

What I’m arguing though is that we might be close to a situation whereby not doing is would be the end of the EU as we know it as well (with the European Parliament having a majority of euro sceptic MEPs, and national governments in large countries willing to change the status quo a lot more). At some point I believe it could very possibly come to choosing between the lesser evil and even our governement might decide that it is a better move to compromise on taxation matters rather that risking to break a free trade zone which is key to our economy.

It is definitely going to be an issue, and obviously this one will affect property prices in some way if it happens. We may have drifted off topic though here!

Pussyhands · 04-01-2019 9:07pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Congratulations on the deposit that's good saving. But if you're made unemployed you won't be getting a mortgage.

Even in a once in a generation recession 84 out of every 100 people were still employed.

My job is pretty ok I think, even if I'm let go I'll get redundancy.

JohnCleary · 04-01-2019 10:04pm

I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 04-01-2019 10:24pm

JohnCleary wrote: »

I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

How much are ya paying on rent in the meantime ?

JohnCleary · 04-01-2019 11:34pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

How much are ya paying on rent in the meantime ?

0

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 05-01-2019 12:24am

JohnCleary wrote: »

I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

Good lad. Did you come in to boast or discuss the title?

UpTheSlashers · 05-01-2019 11:45am

JohnCleary wrote: »

I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

Classy.

kippy · 05-01-2019 11:50am

JohnCleary wrote: »

I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

There are plenty like you as well. More power to ye.

stateofflux · 05-01-2019 12:00pm

LotharIngum wrote: »

If their wages are cut significantly imagine how the wages in the rest of the country will be effected.

Rest of Country won't be affected.

Salary increases of min 10% are overdue from fallout of last recession. FDI related salaries are somewhat outside this.

Bob24 · 05-01-2019 12:21pm

stateofflux wrote: »

Rest of Country won't be affected.

Salary increases of min 10% are overdue from fallout of last recession. FDI related salaries are somewhat outside this.

When there is a skill overlap, multinational salaries cannot possibly be completely disconnected from the rest of the job market.

For exemple even though they work for an Irish organisation, a software developer working for Dublin Bus or an accountant working for Eir do benefit from multinationals drying up the job market and paying better salaries. Their employers won’t match Google levels but they are pressured to pay more than they otherwise would if better paid jobs didn’t exist in multinationals.

stateofflux · 05-01-2019 1:08pm

Bob24 wrote: »

When there is a skill overlap, multinational salaries cannot possibly be completely disconnected from the rest of the job market.

For exemple even though they work for an Irish organisation, a software developer working for Dublin Bus or an accountant working for Eir do benefit from multinationals drying up the job market and paying better salaries. Their employers won’t match Google levels but they are pressured to pay more than they otherwise would if better paid jobs didn’t exist in multinationals.

Id nearly guarantee you there will be no salary cuts in the public service in the next 5 years unless something worst case scenario happens.

Current private sector salaries have to go up also they are way under where they should be. There is a salary gap between Multinational and national wages which will close also...unless something major happens

Mad_maxx · 05-01-2019 1:13pm

stateofflux wrote: »

Id nearly guarantee you there will be no salary cuts in the public service in the next 5 years unless something worst case scenario happens.

Current private sector salaries have to go up also they are way under where they should be. There is a salary gap between Multinational and national wages which will close also...unless something major happens

Public sector wages are always the last hard choice made by government all political parties vigorously Court the public sector vote and the media are overtly pro public sector, unions are never off rte

Bob24 · 05-01-2019 2:15pm

stateofflux wrote: »

Id nearly guarantee you there will be no salary cuts in the public service in the next 5 years unless something worst case scenario happens.

Current private sector salaries have to go up also they are way under where they should be. There is a salary gap between Multinational and national wages which will close also...unless something major happens

Public service is a separate beast and isn’t the majority of “the rest of the country” as opposed to multinationals. But for specific skills even public service salaries are influenced be multinationals (being in IT myself and having interviewed with a public organisation, they seem to be having a very hard time to hire without pushing up salary scales significantly in certain professions). Even leaving salary cuts asside, if that job market pressure didn’t exist they would hire with lower wages which would in turn lower their average wages for those professions thanks to cheaper new hires (again I am talking about qualified professionals only).

An in terms of private sector, I don’t think salaries “have to go up” no matter what. Employers are no charities and simply react to market conditions so if pressure was to ease-up on the job market for certain professions such as the ones I mentioned, why would they increase wages no matter what?

The_Conductor · 05-01-2019 3:34pm

Bob24 wrote: »

When there is a skill overlap, multinational salaries cannot possibly be completely disconnected from the rest of the job market.

For exemple even though they work for an Irish organisation, a software developer working for Dublin Bus or an accountant working for Eir do benefit from multinationals drying up the job market and paying better salaries. Their employers won’t match Google levels but they are pressured to pay more than they otherwise would if better paid jobs didn’t exist in multinationals.

Not necessarily. Up to around 2006 there was a specific public sector allowance paid to IT post holders- even today it hasn't been restored. E.g. in the civil service there were admin EOs and EO ICT or Junior Systems Analysts. The EO JSA got the EO salary- plus an allowance worth about 8% of the gross salary- for holding an ICT post (note- they had to be appropriately qualified etc- its not that anyone could walk into such a post).

Allowances or special pay rates for ICT, HR, Accountancy and other functions- were never brought back in the public sector (which is why they are finding it impossible to recruit into these roles- they simply can't compete).

stateofflux · 05-01-2019 4:36pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Public service is a separate beast and isn’t the majority of “the rest of the country” as opposed to multinationals. But for specific skills even public service salaries are influenced be multinationals (being in IT myself and having interviewed with a public organisation, they seem to be having a very hard time to hire without pushing up salary scales significantly in certain professions). Even leaving salary cuts asside, if that job market pressure didn’t exist they would hire with lower wages which would in turn lower their average wages for those professions thanks to cheaper new hires (again I am talking about qualified professionals only).

An in terms of private sector, I don’t think salaries “have to go up” no matter what. Employers are no charities and simply react to market conditions so if pressure was to ease-up on the job market for certain professions such as the ones I mentioned, why would they increase wages no matter what?

A separate beast to a point but linked in the bigger scheme. Salaries have stayed the same for the last few years but cost of living / inflation has increased.. growing economies need salaries that are relatively proportional to cost of living otherwise you have problems.

the salary issue is contributing to the housing problem also.

devlinio · 05-01-2019 8:13pm

My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).

beaz2018 · 05-01-2019 8:52pm

devlinio wrote: »

My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).

That’s nice

Pussyhands · 05-01-2019 9:02pm

devlinio wrote: »

My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).

Hoping they get out before the prices fall. I think early last year was the peak.

By the time they get to selling it prices may have tanked.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 05-01-2019 9:23pm

smurgen wrote: »

Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

They are both growing like gang busters. The stock market hit across the board is a correction to a generally overvalued market. Interest rates went up.

Arthur Daley · 05-01-2019 9:41pm

stateofflux wrote: »

A separate beast to a point but linked in the bigger scheme. Salaries have stayed the same for the last few years but cost of living / inflation has increased.. growing economies need salaries that are relatively proportional to cost of living otherwise you have problems.

the salary issue is contributing to the housing problem also.

Plan is that the threat of AI and robotics will keep salaries for a lot of jobs fairly depressed into the next ten years. Not every job, but for a lot they should not be automatically expecting pay rises into the 2020s.

riclad · 05-01-2019 10:39pm

There was an article in the irish times about 9 days ago ,it say house prices in ireland will not increase by any significant amount in the next 10 years .I do not see how anyone could predict what happens in 10 years time ,no one predicted the american stock market falling in december .No one really knows how much brexit will effect the irish
economy .It,ll probably increase the cost of sending goods to ireland
the uk.

dor843088 · 05-01-2019 11:03pm

riclad wrote: »

There was an article in the irish times about 9 days ago ,it say house prices in ireland will not increase by any significant amount in the next 10 years .I do not see how anyone could predict what happens in 10 years time ,no one predicted the american stock market falling in december .No one really knows how much brexit will effect the irish
economy .It,ll probably increase the cost of sending goods to ireland
the uk.

It's pretty simple really. Wages will not grow significantly over the next ten years. We can be reasonably sure of that. Therefore housing prices will not rise significantly. I think it's a reasonable and probable assumption tbh. Of course if the lending rules are relaxed on mortgages then we're off to the races again. Won't happen though.

Bob24 · 05-01-2019 11:11pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Not necessarily. Up to around 2006 there was a specific public sector allowance paid to IT post holders- even today it hasn't been restored. E.g. in the civil service there were admin EOs and EO ICT or Junior Systems Analysts. The EO JSA got the EO salary- plus an allowance worth about 8% of the gross salary- for holding an ICT post (note- they had to be appropriately qualified etc- its not that anyone could walk into such a post).

Allowances or special pay rates for ICT, HR, Accountancy and other functions- were never brought back in the public sector (which is why they are finding it impossible to recruit into these roles- they simply can't compete).

I had an interview with a public body and while I didn’t end up going there, their offer was not that bad. From what I can see besides the fact that their salary scales have started to move up accross the board due to market pressure, they also have ways to push up hiring salaries for specific roles by either advertising job with the same seniority level at higher grades in certain functions (like IT), or hiring at a very high salary within the grade (although I gather that wouldn’t be great in the long term as it means less pay rise opportunities). For exemple the role I interviewed for was for an individual contributor but with upper-mid management type of grade.

Bob24 · 05-01-2019 11:23pm

dor843088 wrote: »

It's pretty simple really. Wages will not grow significantly over the next ten years. We can be reasonably sure of that. Therefore housing prices will not rise significantly. I think it's a reasonable and probable assumption tbh. Of course if the lending rules are relaxed on mortgages then we're off to the races again. Won't happen though.

Wouldn’t agree to say it is a reasonable and probable assumption to make. 10 years is a very long time and a lot of things can happen/change during that time.

I would agree with the OP and to me it’s just too long a timeframe to make serious predictions on property prices. One could make forecasts based on a lot of assumptions of what would happen under specific scenarios, but I think it would be wrong to pick one of those scenarios and say this is the very likely one to happen for the next 10 years.

dor843088 · 05-01-2019 11:50pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Wouldn’t agree to say it is a reasonable and probable assumption to make. 10 years is a very long time and a lot of things can happen/change during that time.

I would agree with the OP and to me it’s just too long a timeframe to make serious predictions on property prices. Once could make forecasts based on a lot of assumptions of what would happen under specific scenarios, but I think it would be wrong to pick one of those scenarios and say this is the very likely one to happen for the next 10 years.

Wages are stagnant taxes are rising and the cost of living is becoming disproportionate to earnings . This will not reverse in the next ten years. No crystal ball needed just common sense.

05-01-2019 11:57pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Wages are stagnant taxes are rising and the cost of living is becoming disproportionate to earnings . This will not reverse in the next ten years. No crystal ball needed just common sense.

Wages are stagnant?

Not what the CSO says.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/cso-figures-show-rise-in-the-average-weekly-wage-865327.html

dor843088 · 06-01-2019 12:05am

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Wages are stagnant?

Not what the CSO says.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/cso-figures-show-rise-in-the-average-weekly-wage-865327.html

If wages go up say 3.3% but taxes and the cost of living go up a multiple of that over time then it has the same if not worse effect. So a person on 40k took home an extra 600 quid. They're probable paying an extra 600 quid a month in rent alone.

Bob24 · 06-01-2019 12:23am

dor843088 wrote: »

Wages are stagnant taxes are rising and the cost of living is becoming disproportionate to earnings . This will not reverse in the next ten years. No crystal ball needed just common sense.

Wages are increasing. But in any case the point is ten years is a very long time and there is no doubt things which can influence property prices will happen during that timeframe which no one can think of today.

dor843088 · 06-01-2019 12:40am

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/average-workers-takehome-pay-fell-871-over-decade-37383319.html

Average take home pay fell almost 900 quid over a decade.

06-01-2019 1:00am

dor843088 wrote: »

If wages go up say 3.3% but taxes and the cost of living go up a multiple of that over time then it has the same if not worse effect. So a person on 40k took home an extra 600 quid. They're probable paying an extra 600 quid a month in rent alone.

None of this means that wages are stagnating. And a very very large proportion of the population are not renting and not paying rent.

Villa05 · 06-01-2019 4:02am

Interesting interview on Bobbys late breakfast on newstalk Saturday 5th of January with a representative from the recruitment sector regarding career changes

He said that 50% of people looking to change jobs stated that quality of life was the reason for seeking new job and they wanted to get out of Dublin to achieve this

Bob24 · 06-01-2019 10:16am

dor843088 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/average-workers-takehome-pay-fell-871-over-decade-37383319.html

Average take home pay fell almost 900 quid over a decade.

Yes we all know that average take home wages have dropped during that period. It is for the past 10 years though, i.e. not a random choice and a period selected to start exactly at the same time as one of the worst financial crisis ever. If the figures were related to the past 2 years they would more than likely show an increase (so would figures for the past 15 years).

Looking at the past 10 years certainly does not backup a statement that in the present “wages are stagnant”, and even less so that it will be the case in the next 10 years.

LotharIngum · 06-01-2019 10:45am

Villa05 wrote: »

Interesting interview on down to business on newstalk Saturday 5th of January with a representative from the recruitment sector regarding career changes

He said that 50% of people looking to change jobs stated that quality of life was the reason for seeking new job and they wanted to get out of Dublin to achieve this

I would believe that figure.
I know lots of people who hate living in Dublin.
I would love to get out of Dublin myself.
But id be picky on where I would like to live if I left Dublin. And also the job would have to pay me as well as I get paid now minus whatever reduction in cost of living is associated with the move.

But, and its a big but. There would have to be plenty more jobs around that area available to me in case I ever lost they one I moved for. Safety net required.

There is a lot more to just wanting to leave Dublin and actually leaving.
Probably easier if you are young and single than if you have a family or a significant other to be fair. But I think young single people definitely like to stay in Dublin.

I know two close friends who moved their families out of Dublin and got jobs elsewhere in the last 10 years or so.

One went to Donegal and one went to West Clare. Both went to good jobs. Both sold their Dublin houses and one bought a house where he moved.
The other rented.

The one in Donegal lost his job that he moved to after about 4 years, as the company relocated. He got redundancy but could net get a job anywhere near the salary he was getting before. He has a mortgage. He has been working in Dublin for the last two years now. He commutes from Donegal on a Monday morning and back on a Friday evening. He rotates around friends houses. He even stayed in my apartment a few times when he was stuck. He has a miserable life now and its too expensive to uproot the family from Donegal to Dublin now.

The other guy was able to move the family back to Dublin when his company who he worked for in Shannon shut down and there were no suitable jobs for him anywhere near. But now hes paying very high rent and has no house in Dublin like he used to. At least he hasn't a mortgage to pay in Clare though.

So you see, its a long term game. Any move out of Dublin has to be a good solid one with a backup plan, because if it all goes wrong, getting back to Dublin may harder than you ever imagined.

Zenify · 06-01-2019 11:01am

LotharIngum wrote: »

He has a miserable life now and its too expensive to uproot the family from Donegal to Dublin now.

So you see, its a long term game. Any move out of Dublin has to be a good solid one with a backup plan, because if it all goes wrong, getting back to Dublin may harder than you ever imagined.

Donegal is an extreme. Most parts of country is commutable to Dublin or even another another big city, Limerick, Cork etc. Not an example that would represent most cases IMO.

LotharIngum · 06-01-2019 11:05am

Zenify wrote: »

Donegal is an extreme. Most parts of country is commutable to Dublin or even another another big city, Limerick, Cork etc. Not an example that would represent most cases IMO.

True, Donegal is far, but if he had moved anywhere, he would still be having to come to Dublin for work.

The point I am making is just that where we would like to move, it has to be a safe move with a backup strategy if you lost the job you moved to, which is always going to be difficult.

Wanderer78 · 06-01-2019 12:05pm

Bob24 wrote:

Looking at the past 10 years certainly does not backup a statement that in the present â€œwages are stagnantâ€, and even less so that it will be the case in the next 10 years.

I think it's fair to say though that there has been relatively low wage inflation compared to rapidly rising asset price inflation, in particularly in housing, over the last couple of decades, which is causing serious issues

Bob24 · 06-01-2019 12:20pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I think it's fair to say though that there has been relatively low wage inflation compared to rapidly rising asset price inflation, in particularly in housing, over the last couple of decades, which is causing serious issues

Yes sure. What I was saying is that someone making 10 years prediction on property prices with a high level of certainty is just wishful thinking, as based on too many assumptions and that it is incorrect to say that currently wages are stagnating.

Wanderer78 · 06-01-2019 12:26pm

Bob24 wrote:

Yes sure. What I was saying is that someone making 10 years prediction on property prices with a high level of certainty is just wishful thinking, as based on too many assumptions and that it is incorrect to say that currently wages are stagnating.

Any such predictions would have an extremely high level of uncertainty attached, with so many variables at play, I do also agree that it's difficult to say if current wages are stagnant or not, but I suspect some have been, rapid asset price inflation is killing us though, particularly younger generations.

Mr. teddywinkles · 06-01-2019 12:42pm

JohnCleary wrote: »

I'm hoping for another recession, tbh.

Bought during the last recession for cash, sold April 2018 (you can guess, I came out winning, also no CGT because of PPR).

Currently have 80% deposit for what i'd consider 'perfect home' budget. A recession that would bring prices down a few % and boom, I can buy my ideal home with cash.

C'mon ta fcuk.... I don't want to be waiting around any longer.

Lots of people had no jobs or emigranted away from family during recession. Thoughtful guy you are.

riclad · 06-01-2019 6:48pm

The reason why the rents are high in dublin is that theres, 1000,s of job vacancy,s in dublin .
IF you are a chemist, engineer, programmer , web designer theres
alot more choice in regard to where you work in dublin than there is in donegal, limerick or other rural area,s .
i know lots of people who are happy to live in dublin ,it depends on how old you are , what is your salary .
Are you renting , are you a home owner .If you are on a low wage ,paying high rent in dublin ,you may not be very happy .

Pussyhands · 07-01-2019 9:50am

Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »

Lots of people had no jobs or emigranted away from family during recession. Thoughtful guy you are.

You are naive if you think randomers are thoughtful of other randomers. Everyone is out for themselves.

I can guarantee you no one owning a house now wants prices to drop. Are they thoughtful?

Property Market 2019

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