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View Poll Results: Who Will The Dems pick in 2020
Harris 43 9.77%
Bernie 102 23.18%
Clinton 19 4.32%
Brooker 8 1.82%
Biden 137 31.14%
Gillbrand 5 1.14%
Oprah! 23 5.23%
Warren 66 15.00%
Klobuchar 5 1.14%
Michelle Obama 27 6.14%
Cuomo 5 1.14%
Voters: 440. You may not vote on this poll

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21-07-2018, 14:45   #1
Rjd2
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Beating/Losing to Trump in 2020 for The Dems

I thought a thread focusing entirely on how the Dems take back the white house might be interesting

Firstly the obvious, its not a cert that Trump will be president in 2020, but for the sake of the thread we will assume he is and to be fair I assume plenty of the Dems who are in power expect so.

So what I want is for everyone to pick someone who you'd be very confident of beating Trump and someone not so much.

So we will go off the bookie odds. Harris and Sanders are favourites while Biden and Warren a little behind. Gillibrand and Brooker behind them.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...on-2020/winner


Anyway the good news for the Dems is Trump is very beatable to say the least and pretty all listed would be solid favourite against him. I'd be temped to go with Biden and maybe Harris as vice.

Sanders is to old and I think Biden would do well in the rust belt where Trump excelled last time. Harris on the ticket makes sense as nature of the beast will dictate that the two front people of the campaign can't be old white men.

So what should Trump hope for?

Some might suggest Harris as she is dull and not trusted by progressives, but while flawed she should have enough to beat Trump, I don't think she would scare the centre and Trump's awfulness would make the hard left vote for her in a way that Macron beat Le Pen.

Its dull but the fact that Clinton is still floating about is Trumps best chance,she proved last time she was a horrible candidate, while she would be fav v Trump, its not the slam dunk the likes of Biden would be to win.
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21-07-2018, 14:49   #2
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Ideally I'd like this not to turn into whether you think Trump is good/bad as we have plenty of places to debate that here!
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21-07-2018, 14:56   #3
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Can you add an other option to the poll?
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21-07-2018, 15:21   #4
Rjd2
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Can you add an other option to the poll?
Up to the mods

Any suggestions? I just looked at oddschecker and picked who they had named.
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21-07-2018, 15:29   #5
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The democrats have no-one to run against Trump.
If the economy holds he'll get a second term.
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21-07-2018, 15:36   #6
StringerBell
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Originally Posted by Rjd2 View Post
Up to the mods

Any suggestions? I just looked at oddschecker and picked who they had named.
Nope, none really that stick out right now. Mitch Landau (sp?) Is a potential one but really it's too early to think about a serious candidate or should I say it's there is so much time left for someone to step forward which is what will happen.

I don't think any of the options I read will be the Democratic candidate.
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21-07-2018, 16:30   #7
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Here's the current odds from oddschecker

Kamala Harris 9/2
Joe Biden 11/2
Bernie Sanders 6/1
Elizabeth Warren 7/1
Gavin Newsom 7/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 12/1
Amy Kloubchar 14/1
Joe Kennedy III 14/1
Kirsten Gillbrand 14/1
Tom Steyer 16/1
Oprah Winfrey 16/1
Eric Holder 20/1
Mark Cuban 20/1
Michelle Obama 25/1
Amy Klobuchar 20/1
Andrew Cuomo 25/1
Cory Booker 33/1
Tulsi Gabbard 33/1
Hillary Clinton 33/1
Eric Garcetti 33/1
John Hickenlooper 33/1
Sherrod Brown 33/1
Christopher Murphy 33/1
Mitch Landrieu 33/1
Mark Warner 40/1
Terry McAuliffe 40/1
Al Franken 50/1
Julian Castro 50/1
Mark Zuckerberg 50/1
Tim Kaine 50/1
Martin OMalley 50/1
Bill de Blasio 50/1
John Kerry 50/1
Jerry Brown 50/1
Jim Webb 66/1
Joe Manchin 66/1
Steve Bullock 66/1
Tammy Duckworth 80/1
Jay Nixon 80/1
Al Gore 100/1
Chelsea Clinton 100/1
George Clooney 100/1
Lady Gaga 100/1
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21-07-2018, 16:48   #8
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Cheers.

Its interesting when Obama was in charge Brooker was considered by many a serious candidate for presidency, but at the moment I don't see it happening. The progressives don't trust him and the centre left have Harris to get behind.

Julien Castro was the bookies fav to be vice instead of Kaine also, but his stock seems to have fallen also.
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21-07-2018, 16:56   #9
Inquitus
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Cheers.

Its interesting when Obama was in charge Brooker was considered by many a serious candidate for presidency, but at the moment I don't see it happening. The progressives don't trust him and the centre left have Harris to get behind.

Julien Castro was the bookies fav to be vice instead of Kaine also, but his stock seems to have fallen also.
I think Joe Biden is probably their best bet, but he is too old I think, he would have beaten Trump last time had he gone for and got the Democratic Nomination.
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21-07-2018, 17:57   #10
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I assumed Biden was in his late sixties, but 75? That's really old

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...n-in-2020.html

For those who don't want to read, the centre left of the Dems party will be hoping Biden runs as there isn't many noteworthy alternatives.
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21-07-2018, 18:13   #11
 
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Oprah would be my pick from that list. Michelle Obama has the weakness of he husband being used against her imo. Not sure of possible skeletons in Oprahs closet tbh. She said earlier in the year she didn't want to run but....
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21-07-2018, 18:37   #12
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Oprah would be my pick from that list. Michelle Obama has the weakness of he husband being used against her imo. Not sure of possible skeletons in Oprahs closet tbh. She said earlier in the year she didn't want to run but....
Oprah wouldn't have a hope, IMO. The way Trump won the nomination was that he was able to verbally sledgehammer and belittle his opponents, and propose stuff to an extreme that his opponents felt was too divisive. Celebrity alone did not carry him through. I don't see Oprah using the same tactic, and I don't see her having much in the way of policy that more experienced politicians on the Democratic side can't offer like Sanders and like Warren.
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21-07-2018, 18:54   #13
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The democrats have no-one to run against Trump.
If the economy holds he'll get a second term.
I doubt the economy will hold if he keeps going the way he is with his trade war carryon.
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22-07-2018, 11:05   #14
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So everyone running against him is a favorite to beat him. Can't help but think such a prusumtion may prove to be as true as it was when people said similar things before he ever even announced his candidacy back in 2015. One thing he does have over the dems is a the solid support of not just his base but according to new polls 90% of republicans. 2016 also proved he can nab voters that may go either way.

Also last time he ran on rhetoric this time he has a record, you might point to the trade wars and Paris agreement or Iran deal ect, but the fact is he said he would do all that, people voted for him and he did it, hard to see how the promises people voted for would be any use in combating him. I think he can be beaten but it won't be in anyway predictable until the votes are in.
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22-07-2018, 19:41   #15
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This all seems a bit pointless to be honest OP.

The variability between different political landscapes that might occur between now and 2020 is absolutely enormous.

Anything from the Dems controlling both houses and a sizeable chunk of Trump's campaign team, Trump himself (impeached), and a dozen or more Republican Senetors and Congressmen, all indicted on various charges, all the way to total control of the government by the Republicans with Trump managing to hold on and coasting into a second term on the back of a steady economy, and the degrees between those two potential realities are innumberable, significant, and each seemingly as likely as any other.

It could be a show of the system in action, finding everything is above board or there has been criminal activity. There could be an ordinary transition into a new presidential term, civil war, or an overt blooming of outright fascism.

Sometimes there's a nice steady run up to the elections and everyone knows, or thinks they know what the lay of the land is, but this time US politics has completely gone off the deep end.
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