Winter 2013/2014 FI Charts

pistolpetes11 · 20-11-2013 1:33pm #1

Well this is a thing of beauty , shame its so far down the line

maquiladora · 20-11-2013 2:03pm

A nice chart to start the FI thread with. That's an almost carbon copy of Nov 26th 2010.

Iancar29 · 20-11-2013 2:19pm

Oh to be seeing that at <120hrs !!! ....

Cogsy88 · 20-11-2013 3:55pm

The far reaches of FI. 384hrs on the 6z GFS looks amazing. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Cogsy88 · 20-11-2013 4:31pm

Check out this precipitation chart. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=0&mode=2

pistolpetes11 · 20-11-2013 4:48pm

The lads were laughing at me buying a snow shovel last year !

Il have the last laugh this year if some of these FI charts come off

gerrybhoy · 20-11-2013 5:15pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The lads were laughing at me buying a snow shovel last year !

Il have the last laugh this year if some of these FI charts come off

If that comes off on the 6th,it's my 40th that day,so snowed in when in the boozers suits me:cool::D

leahyl · 20-11-2013 5:24pm

I have a wedding that day so I actually hope it doesn't come off! And it probably won't :P........or will it, let's wait and see....:eek:

snowstreams · 20-11-2013 5:45pm

leahyl wrote: »

I have a wedding that day so I actually hope it doesn't come off! And it probably won't :P........or will it, let's wait and see....:eek:

Nothing better than a white wedding!

Frank Garrett · 20-11-2013 10:36pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The lads were laughing at me buying a snow shovel last year !

Il have the last laugh this year if some of these FI charts come off

Get them to shovel your driveway.

Iancar29 · 20-11-2013 11:25pm

Next ramp up on the rollercoaster for another northerly :pac:;):p

maquiladora · 21-11-2013 2:07am

This is a lobe of the polar vortex on it's way down into Europe. :cool:

Iancar29 · 21-11-2013 11:04pm

Northerly ! ... Northerly .... NORTHERLY!

^^^^^ Look who i found too!!

:pac:

patneve2 · 22-11-2013 11:58am

Enjoy the GFS 06Z long term FI charts while they're there

Iancar29 · 22-11-2013 12:36pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Enjoy the GFS 06Z long term FI charts while they're there

I Will indeeeds!

... it seems the GFS op run has heard my ensemble call from last night and decided ... " yeah... i'll give these guys something nice to look at......" ha

Cogsy88 · 26-11-2013 12:07am

Pub run nice at 264hrs. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0

Frank Garrett · 26-11-2013 12:10am

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2013 9:57am

Candy this early in the day cant be too good for the teeth but hay ho

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2013 10:00am

Iancar29 · 27-11-2013 1:12pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

^^^ 5 days ago....

And todays

leahyl · 27-11-2013 1:27pm

Typical - Cork misses out again Ian if that were to come off! :mad::pac:

Iancar29 · 27-11-2013 2:11pm

leahyl wrote: »

Typical - Cork misses out again Ian if that were to come off! :mad::pac:

Thats because its a northerly!!! haha , you need an easterly! But some light dustings is not out of the question

Lets hope it keeps this setup in gear instead of shifting way east like the last.

dopolahpec · 27-11-2013 2:31pm

Nice charts theme continues on GFS 6z. An evolving set-up but very fragile and transitory looking to my eye. way outside the 'tell your friends' about it yet, but certainly a chance of snow for many parts if this morning's charts came off. Northerly snow, could be some beefy showers. Maybe not the epic fence-post submerging stuff, but would be nice to see a day of it even.

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2013 3:16pm

Sure what could go wrong

I do believe Cork is covered , albeit it very lightly

maquiladora · 27-11-2013 11:45pm

Just about as much as you can get from a northerly blast.

dopolahpec · 27-11-2013 11:47pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Just about as much as you can get from a northerly blast.

That would be animal stuff. Surely the peak of this FI winter run. Someone say downgrade on the morning? lol

Iancar29 · 28-11-2013 12:13am

SNOW + ISON + GEMINIDS

= #OMG!!!

hatrickpatrick · 28-11-2013 12:39am

ECM agrees on that temperature as well:

ECM0-216.GIF?27-0

UKMO doesn't cover that many days ahead, but the last UKMO chart (+144hrs) shows the blast of cold approaching:

UW144-7.GIF?27-18

FI is still FI, but when models start lining up like that, I start getting a bit of a tingle in my... Oh was I talking out loud there?

maquiladora · 28-11-2013 1:07am

dopolahpec wrote: »

That would be animal stuff. Surely the peak of this FI winter run. Someone say downgrade on the morning? lol

The op was colder than any of the ensembles so there will almost certainly be a downgrade in the morning. Perfect stuff for FI eye candy though.

123 LC · 28-11-2013 10:06am

maquiladora wrote: »

The op was colder than any of the ensembles so there will almost certainly be a downgrade in the morning. Perfect stuff for FI eye candy though.

What are they like this morning?

maquiladora · 28-11-2013 10:34am

123 LC wrote: »

What are they like this morning?

GFS and ECM op runs are still cold this morning, but again not supported by the ensembles, the ECM in particular is probably an outlier. So downgrades look almost inevitable.

But this is the FI thread for fun and eye candy so let's just enjoy whats being shown, as long as you don't take it too seriously!

pistolpetes11 · 28-11-2013 12:10pm

I can feel the chill from here

Iancar29 · 28-11-2013 2:28pm

Nice promising 6z ensembles , FI currently is the 4th of December though.

dopolahpec · 28-11-2013 2:34pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Nice promising 6z ensembles , FI currently is the 4th of December though.

Yeah, looks like 6 or 7 hitting -10C uppers for Dublin, including Op and Control. That would certainly be snow potential?

Iancar29 · 28-11-2013 2:45pm

dopolahpec wrote: »

Yeah, looks like 6 or 7 hitting -10C uppers for Dublin, including Op and Control. That would certainly be snow potential?

Yep definitely , but because its a northerly we would need the showers to survive their way down inland. For this to happen we want to see some nice troughs embedded .

Shall be fun next few days to watch the models

Villain · 28-11-2013 2:50pm

Charts have being showing it in FI for a while, only thing is it's always short lived !

Harps · 28-11-2013 2:51pm

From a northerly Dublin would likely just have clear skies with the odd flurry, plenty of snow potential for Ulster and Connaught though. Obviously if the cold were to stick around then there'd be potential anywhere but it just like like a toppler at the moment

dopolahpec · 28-11-2013 3:00pm

Villain wrote: »

Charts have being showing it in FI for a while, only thing is it's always short lived !

It's not as short-lived as it might be, plenty evidence to suggest that if we get the northerly airflow it may last 3-4 days, today's 6zGFS for example

Villain · 28-11-2013 5:55pm

Well 12z doesn't show any real cold at all!

Iancar29 · 28-11-2013 6:53pm

Villain wrote: »

Well 12z doesn't show any real cold at all!

Wait for the ensembles to see if its a outlier or not.

EDIT: Yep , operational was a warm outlier on the ensembles , complete opposite to the 06z lol .

Will be interesting to see how the ECM handles the situation now..

Iancar29 · 29-11-2013 3:56pm

06z ensembles. Alot of nice runs there including some snowy ones. But its FI at the 6th and 12z like the last few days could show a very different picture compared to the 6z once again...

Cold or no cold in the end , its a joy to watch these runs!

Bring on the 12z

Iancar29 · 29-11-2013 5:26pm

Cant post charts , off to work shortly...

12 z so far so good. Northerly still there. Snow for the north looks a giving , and then hopefully some good chances further south.

BLIZZARD for scotland on this run ! lol

Iancar29 · 29-11-2013 11:27pm

Jet stream further north on the 18z .. kicks up the low alot earlier an intensifies it alot more.

This would be a repeat of this video from last year..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPKb9z4l7eM

:rolleyes:

Iancar29 · 29-11-2013 11:45pm

Look whats popped up in FI to join the PARTY!!! :pac: :pac: :pac:

BLIZZARD7 · 29-11-2013 11:45pm

12z ECM has serious cold coming down from the north from day 8 onwards, even has a small low embedded in the flow. Polar low formation is a real possibility next weekend if this came off as currently shown...

Dan

Oneiric 3 · 30-11-2013 12:07am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

12z ECM has serious cold coming down from the north from day 8 onwards, even has a small low embedded in the flow. Polar low formation is a real possibility next weekend if this came off as currently shown...

Dan

12z was a bit of a cold 'outlier' but that little low sure is a very interesting feature in FI. Really whizzes down from Polar regions. IF (FI backways) that came of as forecast, could produce some colossal thunderstorm activity/high winds/blizzard conditions.

I think early Dec 1981 seen a similar feature hit Scotland but not 100% sure of that date.

maquiladora · 30-11-2013 12:12am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

12z was a bit of a cold 'outlier' but that little low sure is a very interesting feature in FI. Really whizzes down from Polar regions. IF (FI backways) that came of as forecast, could produce some colossal thunderstorm activity/high winds/blizzard conditions.

That was the most interesting feature on the ECM for sure. Now, we just need to move it a bit further west and delay the timing a tad....

Oneiric 3 · 30-11-2013 12:28am

maquiladora wrote: »

Now, we just need to move it a bit further west and delay the timing a tad....

Roll on the roar of the heavens.

Villain · 30-11-2013 9:47am

ECM 00z stuck to its guns for cold in FI but GFS is having none of it except for Northern Ireland for a few days

sean555 · 30-11-2013 11:33am

GFS 6z has now changed its tune and falling in line with the ECM , -8 uppers flooding over the country from the north.

maquiladora · 30-11-2013 11:54am

sean555 wrote: »

GFS 6z has now changed its tune and falling in line with the ECM , -8 uppers flooding over the country from the north.

Cold but almost bone dry with high pressure moving over us. Would need to see something more like the ECM for snow shower potential up north.

Winter 2013/2014 FI Charts

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