Epsom Derby & Oaks, Sat 04th July

madmoose · 04-07-2020 8:44am

I guess Serpantine will lead here and try and slip the field the way he won from the front the last day but be caught by a couple of stronger finishers.

TheMilkyPirate · 04-07-2020 9:01am

Going with Vatican city in the Derby. Also fancy Frankly darling to beat Love in the Oaks. Great days racing to look forward to

famagusta · 04-07-2020 9:04am

Going for the Seamie Heff each way double, 59/1 yesterday, hopefully get the place part up anyway

longshotvalue · 04-07-2020 9:21am

3:40 Oaks

Passion ran well last time after only 6 days break and i wouldn't be surprised if she gets a lot closer here of a more normal break. 40/1 looks value. Love looks a top class horse but it possible the 1000 was a poor renewal.

1 Point EW 40/1 sky BetVC

supremenovice · 04-07-2020 9:58am

When I'm looking through a tricky jumps race in England, my default position is:If in doubt, Paul Nicholls!
He'll always get them trained to the minute for the big races and you'll get bang for your buck. I think the same applies for John Gosden on the flat. I think he's the best trainer in the world at the moment and I reckon Worthily is a shot to nothing at 40/1 each way, despite limited experience and Dettori not on board.

Slattsy · 04-07-2020 11:35am

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40 Oaks

Passion ran well last time after only 6 days break and i wouldn't be surprised if she gets a lot closer here of a more normal break. 40/1 looks value. Love looks a top class horse but it possible the 1000 was a poor renewal.

1 Point EW 40/1 sky BetVC

I'm with you here also. We're both ****ed.

chinguetti · 04-07-2020 11:35am

Ennistymon and Vatican City for the double, both to come fast and late.

FatRat · 04-07-2020 11:37am

What is wrong with Pyledriver that he is 18/1 and drifting? He won lto fair and square. And that was no fluke if you look back to his first run back from the break, 1.5l behind Berlin Tango closing all the time over 10f. That translates well compared to Russian emporers 1.5l win over the same horse.

I don’t look much at pedigree but is there something wrong with his? He looks to have some of the best form in the race and looks proven to stay.

The Tetrarch · 04-07-2020 11:46am

I think Coolmore/Ballydoyle have extra incentive to win today.
They are all about winning the English Derby and promoting the winner as a stallion.
They have five runners sired by Galileo.

I may be wrong but I think three stallions in Derby history have sired four English Derby winners:
Blandford (b 1919) sired Trigo (b 1926); Blenheim (b 1927); Windsor Lad (b 1931); Bahram (b 1932).
Montjeu (b 1996) sired Motivator (b 2002); Authorized (b 2004); Pour Moi (b 2008); Camelot (b 2009).
Galileo (b 1998) sired New Approach (b 2005); Ruler Of The World (b 2010); Australia (b 2011); Anthony Van Dyck (b 2016).

Galileo is 22 years old and can not have too many years left at stud.

Afaik another record is no Epsom Derby winner has sired an Epsom Derby winner that sired an Epsom Derby winner.
Galileo sired Camelot - who has English King and Mythical running today.
Galileo sired Australia - who has Mohican heights running today.

Based on the "stats" :rolleyes: a win by any of eight runners by Galileo (5); Camelot (2); Australia (1) will create a new Derby record.

Slattsy · 04-07-2020 11:47am

FatRat wrote: »

What is wrong with Pyledriver that he is 18/1 and drifting? He won lto fair and square. And that was no fluke if you look back to his first run back from the break, 1.5l behind Berlin Tango closing all the time over 10f. That translates well compared to Russian emporers 1.5l win over the same horse.

I don’t look much at pedigree but is there something wrong with his? He looks to have some of the best form in the race and looks proven to stay.

He had a huge fitness advantage lto so I'd say that has a lot to do with it. O'briens improve a stone from first run.

FatRat · 04-07-2020 12:00pm

Slattsy wrote: »

He had a huge fitness advantage lto so I'd say that has a lot to do with it. O'briens improve a stone from first run.

I’d be staying away from the Russian Emporer in that case, given his last race was his 2nd run and likely up near his best form. Just looking now, I hadn’t realised Arthur’s Kingdom (2nd to pyledriver) ran so poorly subsequently in the Irish Derby. I think this might be a more obvious derby than we are suggesting and English King will be the winner.

Definitely interesting to see Kameko being backed but now at 4/1, that really is just gambling on his talents at 12f with no obvious proof. Too short of a price for that carry on for me.

The Tetrarch · 04-07-2020 12:33pm

The Derby is the 6th race. Will the ground be churned up on the inner by then?
In previous years they moved out the rail on Friday to keep fresh ground for the Derby, and ran the Dash before the Derby and that kept horses away from the inner rail.

supremenovice · 04-07-2020 12:36pm

Mogul and Max Vega both rated 110. The former at 15/2 and the latter at 40/1.
Either the handicapper or the bookies have got it wrong big time.

Plasandrunt · 04-07-2020 12:44pm

Singles on Pyledriver and Frankly Darling. Plus done a Frankly Darling/Ennistymon straight f/c

longshotvalue · 04-07-2020 12:59pm

Slattsy wrote: »

I'm with you here also. We're both ****ed.

I’m doubly f****d as I went fir a bit extra in the W/o the 2 favs at 7/1 on 365. Seems value when ennistymon is 4/6

kksaints · 04-07-2020 1:00pm

Have gone for Ennistymon in the Oaks and Vatican City in the Derby. Both each-way.

The Tetrarch · 04-07-2020 1:19pm

I did a Tote Trifecta on the Derby for a couple of Euro.
You can do Tote bets through Betfair.

04-07-2020 1:50pm

Emissary & Worthily e/w for me.

Kameko a poor fav

Slattsy · 04-07-2020 2:13pm

Ground on soft side.

BumperD · 04-07-2020 2:28pm

Kameko is the fastest horse in the race but not sure he stays. I went with Russian Emperor - liked his ascot run only getting going late on.

byronbay2 · 04-07-2020 2:31pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground on soft side.

Safe Voyage broke the course record in winning the 14.25!!

04-07-2020 2:32pm

Supposedly a record time for that 7f race just gone Epsom: 1m 19.88s. Also John Quinn's 1,000th winner as a trainer.
Previous best time 1m 20.10 from 1972 I think. Stiff breeze must help. Ground good at best.

BumperD · 04-07-2020 2:34pm

Corazon Espinado aims to repeat last years win in the 5.35 Epsom off 3lb higher. Handles the ground no problem with any rain falling 9/1 4 Places about hopefully he can repeat the feat again.

BoldReason · 04-07-2020 2:34pm

Unsurprisingly Kameko gone favorite.

BoldReason · 04-07-2020 3:46pm

That was Savage.

04-07-2020 3:46pm

WOW!! That was impressive by Love

Slattsy · 04-07-2020 3:47pm

Jesus. State of the pacemakers.

04-07-2020 3:51pm

Fair play to anyone who took them cramped odds - demolition job that!

04-07-2020 3:56pm

Aidan O'Brien must be under a gagging order. Wouldn't give Cumani his pick of the six for the Derby :pac:

Rabbit Redux · 04-07-2020 3:58pm

A lesson in how not to do pacemaking.

Francie Barrett · 04-07-2020 4:06pm

Make no mistake, that was a cracking race despite the opposition being nothing special. The time was very quick, reminiscent of Enable. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this make an attempt at the Arc.

The Tetrarch · 04-07-2020 4:09pm

I fear for my bet on Mohican Heights after seeing the Oaks.
Mogul looks like he could be the Aidan O'Brien chosen one.

Slattsy · 04-07-2020 4:12pm

Mogul now out to 8s. If you fancy it you'd like to see him stronger in betting than that.

The Tetrarch · 04-07-2020 4:12pm

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

A lesson in how not to do pacemaking.

Perhaps, but Ballydoyle got the result they wanted, 1st and 2nd.

Rabbit Redux · 04-07-2020 4:37pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Perhaps, but Ballydoyle got the result they wanted, 1st and 2nd.

They'd still have got the result they wanted if the pacemakers stayed at home.

04-07-2020 4:43pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I fear for my bet on Mohican Heights after seeing the Oaks.
Mogul looks like he could be the Aidan O'Brien chosen one.

Paul Smith only mentioned Mogul and Vatican City after the Oaks when interviewed.

BorneTobyWilde · 04-07-2020 4:58pm

Pyledriver for me

BorneTobyWilde · 04-07-2020 5:00pm

Well that was a joke, give him a mile head start why don't you .

BoldReason · 04-07-2020 5:01pm

Jaysus

kksaints · 04-07-2020 5:01pm

Don't know what to make of that.

Peintre Celebre · 04-07-2020 5:02pm

Must be one of the strangest derbies ever ran. Finished in a bunch bar the winner and all huge odds the front three

Peintre Celebre · 04-07-2020 5:02pm

Some day for Emmet McNamara. Good for him

tryfix · 04-07-2020 5:02pm

tryfix wrote: »

It's getting harder to figure out the Derby by the day. English King is too short for what he has achieved. The stable confidence is very reassuring but he's not a betting prospect.

Kameko has an X Factor and an X-Factor jockey. Although he's bred to be a 10f horse rather than a 12f one he's not exactly facing a stellar field. He's backable.

Mogul is basically the same horse as his full brother Japan with less speed. Like Japan he is being brought along steadily so he's more likely to place in the Derby than win it.

Russian Emperor is an unknown quantity, the booking of Seamie is a big plus for his chances. I'd rate his win chance above that of Mogul.

Vatican City's fast finishing 2nd in the Irish 2,000 Guineas has shown that he has the speed and class to compete at this level. There are questions about his stamina, but he has a solid Dosage Index of 0.73 and there's an endless list of Galileos out of speedy dams who stayed 12f at Epsom.

Vatican City is my Derby bet. Granted that P Beggy is an unusual booking for him but Padraig has proven that he has what it takes to win these big races.

I'll also have a bet on Serpentine. He was being lined up for this race before he won his maiden by 9L, so their faith in him beforehand and his group performing full siblings make him one that I don't want to ignore.

Woohoo..... 🤑

robbiezero · 04-07-2020 5:03pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Amhran Na Bhfiann, was the greenest of the runners in that top-class maiden that had its form franked in the Irish Derby. He travelled well and got worried out of it in the closing stages. 100/1 is madness considering his possible improvement. He doesn’t look the type to be a pacemaker, as he is too inexperienced. I don’t normally put up a price when its only 1 bookie, but 365 are the strongest book out there.

1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Bet365

Lovely stuff.

BorneTobyWilde · 04-07-2020 5:04pm

He went for home 5f out, rest just watched.

meath4sam · 04-07-2020 5:05pm

Well done Aidan again and thank you.

BoldReason · 04-07-2020 5:07pm

Whatever about the rest of them it was a great ride by Emmet MC. Fair play. Nice to see it.

The Tetrarch · 04-07-2020 5:08pm

First three: 25/1; 50/1; 66/1.

The White Wolf · 04-07-2020 5:09pm

The lads on ITV are fuming. :P

Breaston Plants · 04-07-2020 5:09pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

First three: 25/1; 50/1; 66/1.

Tricast pays 56,000.....ðŸ˜

Epsom Derby & Oaks, Sat 04th July

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