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Epsom Derby & Oaks, Sat 04th July

  • 29-06-2020 9:40am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭


    "The Thoroughbred exists not because its selection has depended experts, technicians or zoologists but one piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby." Frederico Tesio, Italian breeder.

    A month later than usual and behind closed doors, but at least we have the Derby on this year. Looks wide open on paper.
    English King top of the market after winning the Lingfield trial, which gave us Anthony van Dyck last year. There was no Ballydoyle runner in it as a reference so hard to know what to make of the form.
    Kameko looks rock solid after a fine win in the Guineas. He's by Kittens Joy whos best progeny are Roaring Lion and Hawkbill - 1m2f horses. Big doubts over the 1m4f for him.
    Ballydoyle horses - Ive mentioned in previous threads that I cant have Aidans 3yos this season. Yes he won the Irish Derby by sheer brute force of numbers (Santiago wont amount to much) but I think his average crop of Derby horses will be beaten. Vatican City looks the pick of his mediocre bunch but a sneaky one each way could be Royal Dornoch if declared. His Royal Lodge stakes form at Newmarket last season looks a solid race, with Kameko in second and other Derby contenders Highland Chief & Pyledriver well beaten down the field.

    I dont have an opinion on The Oaks yet, looks a higher quality race on paper though.


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Amhran Na Bhfiann
    Armory
    Emissary
    English King
    Gold Maze
    Highland Chief
    Kameko
    Khalifa Sat
    Max Vega
    Mogul
    Mohican Heights
    Mythical
    Pyledriver
    Russian Emperor
    Serpentine
    Vatican City
    Worthily

    The first one there is a commentator's nightmare: Am Ran Nay Ban


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    The Espom Derby is a very tricky beast this year.

    list of Derby entries

    Amhran Na Bhfiann (Aidan O'Brien)
    Armory (Aidan O'Brien)
    Emissary (Hugo Palmer)
    English King (Ed Walker)
    Gold Maze (Jessica Harrington)
    Highland Chief (Paul and Oliver Cole)
    Kameko (Andrew Balding)
    Khalifa Sat (Andrew Balding)
    Max Vega (Ralph Beckett)
    Mogul (Aidan O'Brien)
    Mohican Heights (David Simcock)
    Mythical (Aidan O'Brien)
    Pyledriver (William Muir)
    Russian Emperor (Aidan O'Brien)
    Serpentine (Aidan O'Brien)
    Vatican City (Aidan O'Brien)
    Worthily (John Gosden)


    Betfair Sportsbook: 5-2 English King, 7-2 Kameko, 13-2 Russian Emperor, 7 Mogul, Vatican City, 12 Highland Chief, 14 Pyledriver, 16 Khalifa Sat, 20 bar

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/english-king-and-kameko-head-17-derby-possibles-as-aidan-obrien-enters-seven/439961


    At the head of the field there's the very likeable English King who has a few handicaps to overcome. He's by Camelot who produced another similarly flashy type in last year's Derby Favourite Sir Dragonet and we all know how that turned out. The form of his 2 3/4L Lingfield Derby Trial win is more Derby place form than winning form. Berkshire Rocco made the running that day and was easily shot down after expending so much energy, Berkshire Rocco was more conservatively ridden in the Queens Vase and was beaten the same distance by Santiago. Santiago's Irish Derby win frank's the form but that was a 5Lb superior run to his Ascot win and Tiger Moth was much the same horse on Irish Derby Day. English King has to be a better horse than he's shown so far if he's going to win the Derby. He's a bit of a false favourite in that there have been so few Derby Trials that commentators just latched onto the first flashy English trained horse that they saw showing some Derby Trial sparkle. His name is enough to add a heap of patriotic fiver bets on him from the masses.

    Kameko is the best horse in the field, doubts about his staying are well justified. His form is a little confusing, he was so good in the Guineas but those that he beat as a 2yo haven't done an awful lot to frank the form. If he stays well he wins, simples.

    Pyledriver was great the last day but fairy tales don't happen at this level.


    O'Brien's string will be the usual mix of trained to the minute surprises and wonder why he sent them disappointments.


    Ryan Moore will be on the Ballydoyle first string and there's no knowing whether he'll be competent or incompetent on the day. Russian Emperor is a progressive sort and he's likely to be Ryan's mount unless fatty Mogul turns up looking like a greyhound that's ready to run for its life. Vatican City has done nothing wrong and his speedier breeding hasn't stopped his full brother Taj Mahal from getting the trip. He should be placed.


    I was very impressed by 9L Curragh winner Serpentine. His inclusion was a surprise but he has to be backed if he runs at Epsom. Amhran Na Bhfiann will hopefully outrun his odds. Who's Padraig Beggy going to ride :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    O'Brien jockey bookings will be interesting. I reckon they'll send Lordan over. The big guns (Dettori and Oisin) are already booked. He should give young Fallon a shot, he's riding out of his skin.
    They withdrew Royal Dornoch too so there goes that each way shout.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    full list of Oaks entries
    Bharani Star (Peter Chapple-Hyam)
    Dubai Love (Saeed Bin Suroor)
    Ennistymon (Aidan O'Brien)
    Frankly Darling (John Gosden)
    Gold Wand (Roger Varian)
    Love (Aidan O'Brien)
    Oriental Mystique (David Simcock)
    Passion (Aidan O'Brien)
    Peaceful (Aidan O'Brien)
    Queen Daenerys (Roger Varian)
    Tiempo Vuela (John Gosden)

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/english-king-and-kameko-head-17-derby-possibles-as-aidan-obrien-enters-seven/439961

    Again the absence of enough Trials has made figuring out the Oaks a lot harder. There could be a big priced winner hiding their light under a bushel and ready to outstay them all.

    Love is a deserving favourite and Peaceful could end up being lumped on. Their classic winning form is the best form on show.

    John Gosden can walk on water so if any one can get the Frankel filly Frankly Darling to put their best foot forward it's him. She looks special but her form isn't special, a 1 1/2L beating of the inexperienced Ennistymon is not Oaks winning form, or is it, Ennistymon might be the one to spring a surprise on Saturday. The one thing that should be bombproof about Frankly Darling is her stamina, something that the 2 Guineas winning O'Brien horses have yet to prove.

    I would love to see Love lengthening away from the field in the style of a superstar but it's a race that needs more thinking about, ground etc. Love has been beaten all 3 times that she has run on ground with Good to Soft or heavier in the going description.

    There are shades of Rhododendron vs Enable about this race and we all know how that turned out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Thoughts on Sunday's Eclipse?

    Enable 6/5, Ghaiyaith 11/4, Japan and Lord North 9/2 and 5/1, Magic Wand 12/1, Deirde 25/1, Regal Reality 25/1, Bangkok 66/1.

    The prices seem about right.

    Enable looks to be in great form at home and took this last year. She's 6 now so the day is coming when she stops being a machine. She should be in fine fettle at this stage of the season and win here.

    Ghaiyyath has a great record when there's no Soft in the going. The big worry for me with him is that AVD got too close to him at Newmarket and AVD flopped subsequently and wasn't good enough for a race like this anyway.

    Japan was only out for a spin the last day, his overall form level isn't sufficient and he would need to up his game this year if he's to win this.

    Lord North was very impressive at Ascot, showing a great turn of speed at the death. He's young and improving and a sporting bet against the front two.

    The rest have good points but not enough to win a race like this.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    I never learn.
    Today I put a few Euro on Armory at 65s.
    Two hours later I learn he is skipping Epsom and will go to the French Derby instead.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    O'Brien jockey bookings will be interesting. I reckon they'll send Lordan over. The big guns (Dettori and Oisin) are already booked. He should give young Fallon a shot, he's riding out of his skin.
    They withdrew Royal Dornoch too so there goes that each way shout.

    You reckon? I was thinking he's hasn't yet got going this year every time I've watched him.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    tryfix wrote: »
    Thoughts on Sunday's Eclipse?

    Enable 6/5, Ghaiyaith 11/4, Japan and Lord North 9/2 and 5/1, Magic Wand 12/1, Deirde 25/1, Regal Reality 25/1, Bangkok 66/1.

    The prices seem about right.

    Think I'd have Enable a shade bigger maybe 6/4ish, Ghaiyaith is fair I think id have him a bit closer to 2/1. Lord North if allowed to line up is surely the bet. Seen some 11/2 around he will surely go off closer to 7/2-4/1. Japan seems a bit short granted he will probably come on for the run lto. Think it concerns them 4.be dissapointing if one of the others win.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    BoldReason wrote: »
    Think I'd have Enable a shade bigger maybe 6/4ish, Ghaiyaith is fair I think id have him a bit closer to 2/1. Lord North if allowed to line up is surely the bet. Seen some 11/2 around he will surely go off closer to 7/2-4/1. Japan seems a bit short granted he will probably come on for the run lto. Think it concerns them 4.be dissapointing if one of the others win.


    The thing about Japan is that he's the kind that won't lose a battle easily if he gets into one. He kept upping his game last year, but the state of him at Ascot on his return wouldn't fill me with hope that he'd have been knocked into top shape in time for this race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    Earendil wrote: »
    You reckon? I was thinking he's hasn't yet got going this year every time I've watched him.

    200/1 and 40/1 winner in June. Not to mention a number of outsider winners late last season too. He's winning when he shouldn't be. This lad is a star in the making.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    These are the days in the flat racing year I enjoy most, the days before the English Oaks and Derby analysing the races with my bets still live.
    In the last 28 years I backed the Derby winner four times, and the Oaks winner three times. I like big odds and that policy gives plenty of losers.

    From my stack of old Sporting Life/Racing Post Weekender newspaper cuttings I found a May 1992 article by Nick Mordin.
    In it he listed six filters to use to prepare a short list of Derby possibles.
    Obviously that was before Aidan O'Brien began to impact the English classics in 1998 (2000 Guineas: King Of Kings; Oaks: Shahtoush).
    The six filters are a bit subjective, and although the 1992 questions are on English racing I amended them to fit Irish racing as I saw fit.

    Which horses in the 2020 Derby field answer all 6 questions out of 6 correctly?
    6/6: None
    5/6: Armory (probably a non-runner); Kameko; Mogul; Mohican Heights; Mythical
    4/6: English King
    3/6: Emissary; Gold Maze; Khalifa Sat; Max Vega; Pyledriver; Vatican City
    2/6: Highland Chief; Russian Emperor
    1/6: Amhran Na Bhfiann
    0/6: Serpentine; Worthily

    My selection is Mohican Heights at 23s.
    I reject Kameko as he has not trialed for the race over 10f or 12f. His dam was a miler.
    Mogul is a big unit. He made a move in the 12f King Edward VII at Ascot but struggled home and was relegated to 4th.
    He is related to good 12f horses and his dam was a 12f horse.
    My feeling is Mogul is big, not easy to get fit, and a bit unfit only 18 days before the Derby.
    Mohican Heights is a smallish horse. He was at the back of the field at Ascot (12f) but finished well, beaten 4l.
    I think his stamina is assured, but may lack speed to stay in touch.
    His sire was an English Derby winner - by a sire who was an English Derby winner, and the dam an English Oaks winner.
    The sire of Mohican Heights' dam won the Derby, the sire of his second dam was 2nd in the Derby and won the Arc, the sire of his third dam sired a Grand National winner.

    My guess is the finish could be between English King and Mohican Heights.

    1 if ran before last week of August at two placed (1,2,3,4) in a group race
    2 won at 7f or more at two
    3 did not lose a race after winning at two - unless it was a listed or group race
    4 the last win at two (excepting group wins) was an impressive win (easily, readily, comfortably, or led all the way, or won gaining lots of ground, or not leading until after 2f out and winning by two lengths or more)
    5 did not run outside group class on a northern track. Did not race in sellers, claimers or nursery handicaps
    6 if made first start after June did it at Newbury or Newmarket (the two straightest tracks in the country)


    My Oaks selection is Frankly Darling. I don't have a bet on her yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    English King in the dreaded stall 1. Russian Emperor with a nice draw in 6 after that I'd imagine Ryan will ride him. Kameko in 11.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Going for the Pope's horse


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Russian Emperor it is so
    HON Seamie


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    I did a lot of work on the English Derby draw. I listed every draw position and every finish position in the Derby from 1952 (?) to now.
    Starting stalls were introduced in 1967. Before that it was a tape start but there was still a draw for positions.

    Unfortunately, what I learned about the draw ten years ago has been ruined by the BHA.
    A few years ago the BHA designated every track in the UK a left-turning or right-turning track.
    On some tracks stall 1 is the left stall facing up the track, on others stall 1 is the stall on the right facing up the track.
    My old PC is being repaired and I can not look at my draw file.
    From memory "lucky" stall 10 won the Derby about eight times from 1967 to 2010, about 25% of the time.
    Stalls 11 (zero wins) and stall 12 (zero wins) were "unlucky".
    That remarkable "lucky stall 10" looks even better when you consider many no-hopers were drawn there.
    Portuguese Lil, 500/1 in 1996, finished 20th of 20, was drawn in stall 10.

    Why were the BHA wrong?
    Although the BHA say Epsom is a left-turning track, for the 12f Derby it is a right-turning track where it matters, the first few furlongs.
    The two stalls machines at Epsom hold ten, and they use two sets of stalls, and there is a gap between them (stall 10 to 11) of about two yards (wheels).
    Traditionally they filled stall set 1 from the inside rail first 1 to 10, then put the others runners in the second stalls machine from stalls 11 and outwards.
    Let us assume a field of 14 runners. When the stalls opened ten horses from stall 1 made for the right-hand bend.
    That big group cut off the much smaller group of four horses in stalls 11, 12, 13, 14.
    The horse in stall 10 was the horse from stalls machine 1 nearest the right-hand bend, and he had the advantage, the real draw advantage.
    Stalls 11 and 12 were at the greatest disadvantage.
    Only one horse from stall 11 came close to the win from 1967 onwards, Dragon Dancer in 2006, narrowly beaten by Sir Percy.
    The winner was drawn guess where, stall 10 (field was 18 runners).
    Darryl Holland drove Dragon Danger forward from stall 11 immediately they opened to avoid getting cut off.
    In years with a small field close to 10 runners there is no advantage.

    I sent an e-mail to the BHA explaining their error in designating Epsom a left-turning track for the 12f start races (Oaks, Derby, Coronation Cup).
    No reply. Obviously they did not make mistakes.
    Although the BHA did not admit their mistake they did make an unannounced change, and that change makes the draw you see today impossible to judge.

    Starting stalls were introduced to get horses away on time*, and to make the start fair. Fail.
    The BHA designated Epsom a left-turning track. Fail.
    * the Derby start in earlier years often was delayed for up to an hour by starting problems

    For about the last eight years they have filled the Derby stalls in a haphazard manner.
    If there are 14 runners they might put 7 in stall 1 and 7 in stall 2, and they fill the stalls nearest to the gap between the stalls
    i.e. they put 1 to 7 in 4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and they put 8 to 14 in 11,12,13,14,15,16,17. They do not fill stalls 1,2,3 or 16,17,18.
    They could put 14 runners, 8 in stalls machine 1 and 6 in stalls machine 2.
    One recent year they reverted to the old method and put 10 in stalls machine 1 and a few in stalls machine 2.

    You have no idea how they will fill the stalls in 2020.
    Why do they have a draw if the draw is botched by a starter filling the stalls how he likes?
    We do not know until minutes before the race how the starter will fill the stalls.
    We have no idea which horse will fill the highly advantageous stall to the left of the gap between the stalls machines.
    We do not know which horses will be in the worst stalls (previously 11 and 12).

    There is no significant draw advantage or disadvantage in any other draw positions in the Derby.
    I think I posted all the above last year. :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    Actually fairly surprised that Ryan plumped for Mogul from stall 2 tbh. That's almost as bad as stall 1. The more I look at this the more I'm coming back to Kameko but I cannot bring myself to pull the trigger.
    Personally don't really like any of Aidans at the moment but likely one will improve for the trip out of all recognition.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Another departure from tradition in the Derby:
    Previously stalls machine 1 was against the inner rail.
    Now the put the two stalls machines in the centre of the track.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    August 2018
    York Racecourse is now the proud owner of the biggest set of starting stalls in Britain and the first of its kind in the world.
    Capable of housing 22 runners at a time, the new unit has recently made the 10,103-mile journey from the Adelaide, South Australia, factory of Steriline Racing, the world’s leading manufacturer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Jockey bookings out?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Jockey bookings out?

    Yes


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    Strange times when two Godolphin jockeys ride for Ballydoyle in the Derby.
    Unheard of even a few years ago. I remember Dettori saying one of his biggest regrets is winning the St Leger on Scorpion for Aidan when Godolphins number one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Another way of looking at the runners gives them points for wins in Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, Listed races, with more points for bigger margins of victory.
    What is obvious is how many of the field have not been successful in high class races, because they were not good enough, or because many trials were cancelled.

    Kameko (11)
    Pyledriver (7)
    Max Vega (5)
    English King (4)
    Mogul (4)
    Mohican Heights (3)
    Russian Emperor (2)
    Khalifa Sat (1)
    Amhran Na Bhfiann (0)
    Emissary (0)
    Gold Maze (0)
    Highland Chief (0)
    Mythical (0)
    Serpentine (0)
    Vatican City 0
    Worthily 0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Amhran Na Bhfiann, was the greenest of the runners in that top-class maiden that had its form franked in the Irish Derby. He travelled well and got worried out of it in the closing stages. 100/1 is madness considering his possible improvement. He doesn’t look the type to be a pacemaker, as he is too inexperienced. I don’t normally put up a price when its only 1 bookie, but 365 are the strongest book out there.

    1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Bet365


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Amhran Na Bhfiann, was the greenest of the runners in that top-class maiden that had its form franked in the Irish Derby. He travelled well and got worried out of it in the closing stages. 100/1 is madness considering his possible improvement. He doesn’t look the type to be a pacemaker, as he is too inexperienced. I don’t normally put up a price when its only 1 bookie, but 365 are the strongest book out there.

    1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Bet365

    Seen that earlier! Agreed, have had some each way. Decent jockey on board too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 39 11117


    I can see this derby quite possibly being a Ballydoyle field day. Mogul to win and a lesser fancied stablemate to fill a place.
    Can’t have English King at all. I think he’s hyped up to the last.
    Kameko looked pure class in the guineas, but I think 8f/10f is where he’ll shine. Hopefully the derby won’t be the ruining of him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    It's getting harder to figure out the Derby by the day. English King is too short for what he has achieved. The stable confidence is very reassuring but he's not a betting prospect.

    Kameko has an X Factor and an X-Factor jockey. Although he's bred to be a 10f horse rather than a 12f one he's not exactly facing a stellar field. He's backable.

    Mogul is basically the same horse as his full brother Japan with less speed. Like Japan he is being brought along steadily so he's more likely to place in the Derby than win it.

    Russian Emperor is an unknown quantity, the booking of Seamie is a big plus for his chances. I'd rate his win chance above that of Mogul.


    Vatican City's fast finishing 2nd in the Irish 2,000 Guineas has shown that he has the speed and class to compete at this level. There are questions about his stamina, but he has a solid Dosage Index of 0.73 and there's an endless list of Galileos out of speedy dams who stayed 12f at Epsom.

    Vatican City is my Derby bet. Granted that P Beggy is an unusual booking for him but Padraig has proven that he has what it takes to win these big races.

    I'll also have a bet on Serpentine. He was being lined up for this race before he won his maiden by 9L, so their faith in him beforehand and his group performing full siblings make him one that I don't want to ignore.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Seamie and Emmet riding at Epsom Saturday and then Chantilly on the Sunday. Beggy just going Epsom. Wonder will they be able to ride in Ireland after that or will they be subject to 14 days of quarantine?


  • Registered Users Posts: 451 ✭✭gillamandango


    14 day still exists but some countries relaxed by July 9th. So if France is on that list then if they come back on the 9th then that could be the loophole, otherwise 14 days quarantine most likely.

    Beggy on VC baffles me. He is a good rider of a pacemaker but you would think VC is too good a horse to do those duties and it should be ANB and Buick but the draw for ANB possibly negates that possibility. Who knows what the actual tactical plan will be.
    The Mig wrote: »
    Seamie and Emmet riding at Epsom Saturday and then Chantilly on the Sunday. Beggy just going Epsom. Wonder will they be able to ride in Ireland after that or will they be subject to 14 days of quarantine?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Russian Emperor it is so
    HON Seamie



    seamie might try for the derby which makes a change

    the filthy crook


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