Epsom Derby & Oaks, Sat 04th July

The Espom Derby is a very tricky beast this year.

list of Derby entries

Amhran Na Bhfiann (Aidan O'Brien)
Armory (Aidan O'Brien)
Emissary (Hugo Palmer)
English King (Ed Walker)
Gold Maze (Jessica Harrington)
Highland Chief (Paul and Oliver Cole)
Kameko (Andrew Balding)
Khalifa Sat (Andrew Balding)
Max Vega (Ralph Beckett)
Mogul (Aidan O'Brien)
Mohican Heights (David Simcock)
Mythical (Aidan O'Brien)
Pyledriver (William Muir)
Russian Emperor (Aidan O'Brien)
Serpentine (Aidan O'Brien)
Vatican City (Aidan O'Brien)
Worthily (John Gosden)


Betfair Sportsbook: 5-2 English King, 7-2 Kameko, 13-2 Russian Emperor, 7 Mogul, Vatican City, 12 Highland Chief, 14 Pyledriver, 16 Khalifa Sat, 20 bar

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/english-king-and-kameko-head-17-derby-possibles-as-aidan-obrien-enters-seven/439961


At the head of the field there's the very likeable English King who has a few handicaps to overcome. He's by Camelot who produced another similarly flashy type in last year's Derby Favourite Sir Dragonet and we all know how that turned out. The form of his 2 3/4L Lingfield Derby Trial win is more Derby place form than winning form. Berkshire Rocco made the running that day and was easily shot down after expending so much energy, Berkshire Rocco was more conservatively ridden in the Queens Vase and was beaten the same distance by Santiago. Santiago's Irish Derby win frank's the form but that was a 5Lb superior run to his Ascot win and Tiger Moth was much the same horse on Irish Derby Day. English King has to be a better horse than he's shown so far if he's going to win the Derby. He's a bit of a false favourite in that there have been so few Derby Trials that commentators just latched onto the first flashy English trained horse that they saw showing some Derby Trial sparkle. His name is enough to add a heap of patriotic fiver bets on him from the masses.

Kameko is the best horse in the field, doubts about his staying are well justified. His form is a little confusing, he was so good in the Guineas but those that he beat as a 2yo haven't done an awful lot to frank the form. If he stays well he wins, simples.

Pyledriver was great the last day but fairy tales don't happen at this level.


O'Brien's string will be the usual mix of trained to the minute surprises and wonder why he sent them disappointments.


Ryan Moore will be on the Ballydoyle first string and there's no knowing whether he'll be competent or incompetent on the day. Russian Emperor is a progressive sort and he's likely to be Ryan's mount unless fatty Mogul turns up looking like a greyhound that's ready to run for its life. Vatican City has done nothing wrong and his speedier breeding hasn't stopped his full brother Taj Mahal from getting the trip. He should be placed.


I was very impressed by 9L Curragh winner Serpentine. His inclusion was a surprise but he has to be backed if he runs at Epsom. Amhran Na Bhfiann will hopefully outrun his odds. Who's Padraig Beggy going to ride

full list of Oaks entries
Bharani Star (Peter Chapple-Hyam)
Dubai Love (Saeed Bin Suroor)
Ennistymon (Aidan O'Brien)
Frankly Darling (John Gosden)
Gold Wand (Roger Varian)
Love (Aidan O'Brien)
Oriental Mystique (David Simcock)
Passion (Aidan O'Brien)
Peaceful (Aidan O'Brien)
Queen Daenerys (Roger Varian)
Tiempo Vuela (John Gosden)

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/english-king-and-kameko-head-17-derby-possibles-as-aidan-obrien-enters-seven/439961

Again the absence of enough Trials has made figuring out the Oaks a lot harder. There could be a big priced winner hiding their light under a bushel and ready to outstay them all.

Love is a deserving favourite and Peaceful could end up being lumped on. Their classic winning form is the best form on show.

John Gosden can walk on water so if any one can get the Frankel filly Frankly Darling to put their best foot forward it's him. She looks special but her form isn't special, a 1 1/2L beating of the inexperienced Ennistymon is not Oaks winning form, or is it, Ennistymon might be the one to spring a surprise on Saturday. The one thing that should be bombproof about Frankly Darling is her stamina, something that the 2 Guineas winning O'Brien horses have yet to prove.

I would love to see Love lengthening away from the field in the style of a superstar but it's a race that needs more thinking about, ground etc. Love has been beaten all 3 times that she has run on ground with Good to Soft or heavier in the going description.

There are shades of Rhododendron vs Enable about this race and we all know how that turned out.

I never learn.
Today I put a few Euro on Armory at 65s.
Two hours later I learn he is skipping Epsom and will go to the French Derby instead.

I did a lot of work on the English Derby draw. I listed every draw position and every finish position in the Derby from 1952 (?) to now.
Starting stalls were introduced in 1967. Before that it was a tape start but there was still a draw for positions.

Unfortunately, what I learned about the draw ten years ago has been ruined by the BHA.
A few years ago the BHA designated every track in the UK a left-turning or right-turning track.
On some tracks stall 1 is the left stall facing up the track, on others stall 1 is the stall on the right facing up the track.
My old PC is being repaired and I can not look at my draw file.
From memory "lucky" stall 10 won the Derby about eight times from 1967 to 2010, about 25% of the time.
Stalls 11 (zero wins) and stall 12 (zero wins) were "unlucky".
That remarkable "lucky stall 10" looks even better when you consider many no-hopers were drawn there.
Portuguese Lil, 500/1 in 1996, finished 20th of 20, was drawn in stall 10.

Why were the BHA wrong?
Although the BHA say Epsom is a left-turning track, for the 12f Derby it is a right-turning track where it matters, the first few furlongs.
The two stalls machines at Epsom hold ten, and they use two sets of stalls, and there is a gap between them (stall 10 to 11) of about two yards (wheels).
Traditionally they filled stall set 1 from the inside rail first 1 to 10, then put the others runners in the second stalls machine from stalls 11 and outwards.
Let us assume a field of 14 runners. When the stalls opened ten horses from stall 1 made for the right-hand bend.
That big group cut off the much smaller group of four horses in stalls 11, 12, 13, 14.
The horse in stall 10 was the horse from stalls machine 1 nearest the right-hand bend, and he had the advantage, the real draw advantage.
Stalls 11 and 12 were at the greatest disadvantage.
Only one horse from stall 11 came close to the win from 1967 onwards, Dragon Dancer in 2006, narrowly beaten by Sir Percy.
The winner was drawn guess where, stall 10 (field was 18 runners).
Darryl Holland drove Dragon Danger forward from stall 11 immediately they opened to avoid getting cut off.
In years with a small field close to 10 runners there is no advantage.

I sent an e-mail to the BHA explaining their error in designating Epsom a left-turning track for the 12f start races (Oaks, Derby, Coronation Cup).
No reply. Obviously they did not make mistakes.
Although the BHA did not admit their mistake they did make an unannounced change, and that change makes the draw you see today impossible to judge.

Starting stalls were introduced to get horses away on time*, and to make the start fair. Fail.
The BHA designated Epsom a left-turning track. Fail.
* the Derby start in earlier years often was delayed for up to an hour by starting problems

For about the last eight years they have filled the Derby stalls in a haphazard manner.
If there are 14 runners they might put 7 in stall 1 and 7 in stall 2, and they fill the stalls nearest to the gap between the stalls
i.e. they put 1 to 7 in 4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and they put 8 to 14 in 11,12,13,14,15,16,17. They do not fill stalls 1,2,3 or 16,17,18.
They could put 14 runners, 8 in stalls machine 1 and 6 in stalls machine 2.
One recent year they reverted to the old method and put 10 in stalls machine 1 and a few in stalls machine 2.

You have no idea how they will fill the stalls in 2020.
Why do they have a draw if the draw is botched by a starter filling the stalls how he likes?
We do not know until minutes before the race how the starter will fill the stalls.
We have no idea which horse will fill the highly advantageous stall to the left of the gap between the stalls machines.
We do not know which horses will be in the worst stalls (previously 11 and 12).

There is no significant draw advantage or disadvantage in any other draw positions in the Derby.
I think I posted all the above last year.

Another departure from tradition in the Derby:
Previously stalls machine 1 was against the inner rail.
Now the put the two stalls machines in the centre of the track.

Jockey bookings out?

Amhran Na Bhfiann, was the greenest of the runners in that top-class maiden that had its form franked in the Irish Derby. He travelled well and got worried out of it in the closing stages. 100/1 is madness considering his possible improvement. He doesn’t look the type to be a pacemaker, as he is too inexperienced. I don’t normally put up a price when its only 1 bookie, but 365 are the strongest book out there.

1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Bet365

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Russian Emperor it is so
HON Seamie

seamie might try for the derby which makes a change

the filthy crook