Property Market 2020

Assetbacked · 01-02-2020 1:03pm

Taylor365 wrote: »

A quick scan of daft returns rental figures for Dublin:

1 bed - min 1.3k
2 bed - min 1.6k
3 bed - min 2k

Excluding kitchen-cum-bedrooms.

Anything under 1.6k per month is guaranteed to be of terrible quality, even for one beds, from my own regular browsing. It's bizarre how landlords don't take care of their apartments or carry out any modernisation. Notwithstanding that €1.3k is the minimum price for one beds, it's not pocket change for someone renting, 42% of a 50k salary. It just shows how desperately those 30,000+ new dwellings per year are needed to try to fix that mess.

pearcider · 01-02-2020 3:03pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The IT now releasing an opinion piece about the Aviva fund suspension and what it might signal for the commercial property sector in Ireland;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/should-dublin-city-office-sales-and-property-fund-withdrawals-wave-red-flags-1.4158023?mode=amp

Nothing alarming highlighted in the article, which is of course true as the economy is still booming and predicted to continue to motor on. But the herd can get spooked by such events and even articles discussing the events.

On a separate note, the IT also have an article on European bank stress test results which predict residential property prices to flatline and decline 1% next year. Of course, this is good news for property owners as it backs up the view that residential property prices are more stable and simply undergoing a correction from the hyper growth the last few years.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946?mode=amp

Take note. The big boys are selling up. The US stock market is about to roll over after the longest expansion in history. It’s so overvalued it’s laughable. The recession is here already if we look at forward looking indicators like manufacturing, freight and the Baltic dry index. You only need to go to any city in the west and see the absurd construction boom that is just topping out thanks to central banks leaving interest rates near zero for a decade. This time it will be a global cyclical downturn like we have never seen before.

Anybody buying property this year needs their head examined.

lastusername · 01-02-2020 3:50pm

pearcider wrote: »

Take note. The big boys are selling up. The US stock market is about to roll over after the longest expansion in history. It’s so overvalued it’s laughable. The recession is here already if we look at forward looking indicators like manufacturing, freight and the Baltic dry index. You only need to go to any city in the west and see the absurd construction boom that is just topping out thanks to central banks leaving interest rates near zero for a decade. This time it will be a global cyclical downturn like we have never seen before.

Anybody buying property this year needs their head examined.

What's happening in terms of the forward-looking indicators like manufacturing and freight? Looking to buy this year!

pearcider · 01-02-2020 4:41pm

lastusername wrote: »

What's happening in terms of the forward-looking indicators like manufacturing and freight? Looking to buy this year!

US PMI at lowest level since 2009.
Baltic dry lowest since 2016.
Capesize index at all time low.
Cass freight index all time low.

JamesMason · 01-02-2020 5:56pm

pearcider wrote: »

Take note. The big boys are selling up. The US stock market is about to roll over after the longest expansion in history. It’s so overvalued it’s laughable. The recession is here already if we look at forward looking indicators like manufacturing, freight and the Baltic dry index. You only need to go to any city in the west and see the absurd construction boom that is just topping out thanks to central banks leaving interest rates near zero for a decade. This time it will be a global cyclical downturn like we have never seen before.

Anybody buying property this year needs their head examined.

Totally agree pearcider. The global economy is already on a cliff edge. The Chinese healthcare might just be the final push. If things do go bellyup, Ireland is very exposed. The big players know this. Investor nerves are already starting to shake as the headlines have shown this week.

JamesMason · 01-02-2020 5:57pm

JamesMason wrote: »

Totally agree pearcider. The global economy is already on a cliff edge. The Chinese healthcare might just be the final push. If things do go bellyup, Ireland is very exposed. The big players know this. Investor nerves are already starting to shake as the headlines have shown this week.

*health scare

riclad · 01-02-2020 6:07pm

I the next 6 months we will see how brexit effects the irish economy,
the service sector is worth about 45 billion a year,
it depends on some future trade deal between the uk and ireland.
services includes, things like insurance, legal service,s, online service,s etc
if there is no trade deal in 2020 it will be more costly and complex to provide service,s
to uk customers from ireland.
this could effect house prices .
The effects of the corana virus could effect trade between china and the eu.
one example apple is closing down all its stores and offices in china for a few weeks.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus/
many companys depend on china to make basic items like cpu,s , ram,
phone,s ,camera,s etc

lastusername · 01-02-2020 6:11pm

pearcider wrote: »

US PMI at lowest level since 2009.
Baltic dry lowest since 2016.
Capesize index at all time low.
Cass freight index all time low.

I have no idea what any of those mean, but I can google and assume it's a sign of poor investor confidence. Were these and similar indices low prior to recent global recessions?

I'll do some research but maybe at the end of the day the right time to buy is the right time for you...albeit having done some research on market trends.

riclad · 01-02-2020 6:36pm

US PMI at lowest level since 2009.
Baltic dry lowest since 2016.
Capesize index at all time low.
Cass freight index all time low.

I think the above are index,s which reflect the value of share,stock,s bonds traded in america and europe.
the stock market in america is down due to fears about the corana virus.

ebayissues · 01-02-2020 6:41pm

Global eonomy has up and downs. If you re buying property to live in the longterm, flunctuations in the value of your house/psrtment shouldnt matter.

riclad · 01-02-2020 6:44pm

In dublin prices have fallen 1-2 per cent in the last year .people are still buying house,s .
i would wait maybe 6 months to buy to see what happens with brexit etc

odyssey06 · 01-02-2020 6:50pm

riclad wrote: »

In dublin prices have fallen 1-2 per cent in the last year .people are still buying house,s .
i would wait maybe 6 months to buy to see what happens with brexit etc

Are you thinking Brexit more likely to lead to drop in prices?
Is there any risk it could lead to an increase in prices if more companies decamp to Dublin?

Assetbacked · 01-02-2020 7:19pm

No Brexit will happen until at least the end of the year.
Its impact on the property market has only manifested in talk so far. Considering nothing at all has happened in four years of hearing about Brexit, people need to pay attention to the wider economic issues and stop focusing on the Brexit hypothetical.

Residential property prices may decline but as a result of a correction rather than a crash. This is because Irish mortgage holders have not over extended themselves this time around together with the fact demand far outstrips supply so it would take massive scale job losses for residential property prices to collapse.

pearcider · 01-02-2020 7:22pm

riclad wrote: »

US PMI at lowest level since 2009.
Baltic dry lowest since 2016.
Capesize index at all time low.
Cass freight index all time low.

I think the above are index,s which reflect the value of share,stock,s bonds traded in america and europe.
the stock market in america is down due to fears about the corana virus.

These indices started moving down in September 2019 long before corona virus but nice try. This virus is literally nothing compared to the global recession that is coming due in large part to the insane monetary policy of the past few years.

riclad · 01-02-2020 9:26pm

I don,t expect prices to collapse, but no one knows what effect brexit will have,many irish companys rely on exports to the uk,
after brexit it will be more expensive and complex to export goods to the uk.
I think prices will probably decline by a few per cent.brexit was announced years ago,there is no sign of any uk company moving its office to ireland.
Most of the large offices seem to be rented by international companys like facebook, google etc

lcwill · 01-02-2020 11:51pm

If there is a big collapse a few things i think might happen:
1) new building will stop and in the long term (given population growth etc) this will drive up prices as supply will never catch up
2) people will lose their jobs and government will need to help them with rent, propping up current high rent levels.
3) people will find it harder to get mortgages again, putting pressure on rent as well and as long as rents are high, the strong yield will draw in investors and keep prices from dropping too low
4) if rents do actually fall RPZ restrictions might be loosened, then landlords will take the chance to drive rents back up faster than government can get it under control.
5) Central Bank will come under enormous pressure to stimulate economy, including through loosening of loan/income restrictions.
6) and then there will be a recovery and in 10 years time prices will be higher than they are now again.

The main question marks are if something happens that drives out the multinationals, and how many of us emigrate next time round.

Otherwise there is no way there will be a long term drop in house prices in Ireland, at least in the main cities and most desirable places to live.

In this sense the election might have a bigger long term impact on the economy than Brexit, in part because it will determine how we respond to it, and how well Ireland's interests will be defended in Brussels - I don't imagine many EU Member States will be feeling strongly about supporting Sinn Fein.

Dolbhad · 02-02-2020 9:35am

I’m not sure if there will be a big impact on house prices. Depend and supply is still a massive issue. And it can take years before we see the effect of Brexit. Also the first chance someone can get to buy a home and get out of renting, will take it.

The central rules last few years and stressed testing will provide some buffer for those who have bought in that time.

I find so far in January houses gone up in areas I am interested it abit higher than last year and are overpriced. I wonder will they get the price.

Mic 1972 · 02-02-2020 11:56am

I have a feeling prices are bouncing back up by looking at the latest properties being added to MyHome. Asking prices seem higher
Also I'm hearing about very crowded viewings that i hadn't heard of in a while.
I hope I'm wrong

Assetbacked · 02-02-2020 12:58pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I have a feeling prices are bouncing back up by looking at the latest properties being added to MyHome. Asking prices seem higher
Also I'm hearing about very crowded viewings that i hadn't heard of in a while.
I hope I'm wrong

In what price range are you seeing this?

02-02-2020 1:10pm

Estate agents desperately trying to keep the gravy train going. Put new listings on higher and hope to panic people into buying in the belief prices are rising again.

Graham · 02-02-2020 1:44pm

I think you credit EAs with more influence than they actually have in the real world.

TheSheriff · 02-02-2020 2:47pm

I think askings have gone up yes, but whether or not they achieve this is yet to be seen.

Example : viewed a property asking for 495k first weekend in Jan. We estimated our max we would be willing to pay for it was likely 450-460 depending on similar sales in the area last year and the quality of the finish etc. House has been on the market several months.

EA told us they had offers for 430k and 435k, both of which were rejected. We offered a modest 460k and were flat out told no, they want asking or above..... No further bids and has been on show every weekend since.

They may get asking, they may not, but I think buyers are being somewhat realistic with prices and not jumping on asking prices out of desperation.

Mic 1972 · 02-02-2020 3:52pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

In what price range are you seeing this?

I've been monitoring the 1bed apt market in city centre fort a while. Despite D1/D7 dropping a few % points in 2019 but still remaining above 200K , the new listed properties are now well above 220K, that's quite significant
I checked the property register for 1bed that sold end of last year and i was surprised to see them going to higher than the asking price

OwlsZat · 02-02-2020 4:39pm

Can't help but think that the prices have hit a range where many buyers will be the negative equity horror stories of the next decade. Really you paid 550k for this? A 3 bed semi D in Dublin 8?

Also not sure anyone else has heard the same stories from the new builds in the comuter belts. Same asking prices as last year. However, now being sold minus the dishwasher, washing machine etc and without flooring throughout. Seems there is no limit to the gouging developers are willing to go to.

Fol20 · 02-02-2020 4:47pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Can't help but think that the prices have hit a range where many buyers will be the negative equity horror stories of the next decade. Really you paid 550k for this? A 3 bed semi D in Dublin 8?

Also not sure anyone else has heard the same stories from the new builds in the comuter belts. Same asking prices as last year. However, now being sold minus the dishwasher, washing machine etc and without flooring throughout. Seems there is no limit to the gouging developers are willing to go to.

Not sure how you call it gouging. Those things are very cheap. I’m sure you’d prefer to pay as little as possible for your house similar to a building trying to sell it with as little costs as possible.

OwlsZat · 02-02-2020 5:02pm

Fol20 wrote: »

Not sure how you call it gouging. Those things are very cheap. I’m sure you’d prefer to pay as little as possible for your house similar to a building trying to sell it with as little costs as possible.

Between the flooring and appliances call it 10k. It's as if they know the affordability ceiling as been reached. So they are instead stripping out input costs.

Would it be OK for the builder to sell without the internal doors and charge the same price? Oh, you want doors as well. Sorry, you're going to have to get them yourself...

Graham · 02-02-2020 5:48pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Same asking prices as last year. However, now being sold minus the dishwasher, washing machine etc and without flooring throughout. Seems there is no limit to the gouging developers are willing to go to.

Which developments offered full-flooring and all appliances that now don't in current phases?

Dolbhad · 02-02-2020 6:02pm

New builds and next phases are still increasing

I’m seeing increase in price in listings in Cork in January - still a lot of the stock that couldn’t be shifted last year as too much work. I know of one terrace house that has gone 20k over asking in the last week. But it was turn key condition.

JamesMason · 02-02-2020 6:09pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Can't help but think that the prices have hit a range where many buyers will be the negative equity horror stories of the next decade. Really you paid 550k for this? A 3 bed semi D in Dublin 8?

Also not sure anyone else has heard the same stories from the new builds in the comuter belts. Same asking prices as last year. However, now being sold minus the dishwasher, washing machine etc and without flooring throughout. Seems there is no limit to the gouging developers are willing to go to.

Their profit margins must be getting thinner and thinner. Imagine the effect of credit tightening/slowdown/change of government.

no.8 · 02-02-2020 6:14pm

pearcider wrote:

Anybody buying property this year needs their head examined.

OR they need somewhere to house their family and not payout 24k in rent in one year

alwald · 02-02-2020 7:07pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I've been monitoring the 1bed apt market in city centre fort a while. Despite D1/D7 dropping a few % points in 2019 but still remaining above 200K , the new listed properties are now well above 220K, that's quite significant
I checked the property register for 1bed that sold end of last year and i was surprised to see them going to higher than the asking price

The 1 bed market in the city center is hit and miss, some properties sold above asking and others went below it in the last 6 months of last year, but one thing they had in common was the lengthy time it took to finalize the sale.

I agree with you that this year they jumped by at least 20K each and some sold fairly quickly at what appears to be a higher price than last year.

car_radio19834 · 02-02-2020 7:08pm

alwald wrote: »

The 1 bed market in the city center is hit and miss, some properties sold above asking and others went below it in the last 6 months of last year, but one thing they had in common was the lengthy time it took to finalize the sale.

I agree with you that this year they jumped by at least 20K each and some sold fairly quickly at what appears to be a higher price than last year.

Can confirm 2 beds in my area are crazy priced now. Nothing under 250k.

alwald · 02-02-2020 7:15pm

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Can confirm 2 beds in my area are crazy priced now. Nothing under 250k.

This is due to a lack of supply of newly built 1 and 2 beds for the general public to buy. Everything built in that bracket and within commutable distance to Dublin city center was bought by REITs for the rental market.

JamesMason · 02-02-2020 7:55pm

alwald wrote: »

This is due to a lack of supply of newly built 1 and 2 beds for the general public to buy. Everything built in that bracket and within commutable distance to Dublin city center was bought by REITs for the rental market.

Take a bow Minister Murphy. We'll show our gratitude this Saturday.

omicron · 02-02-2020 8:13pm

JamesMason wrote: »

Take a bow Minister Murphy. We'll show our gratitudAe this Saturday.

There's a far bigger shortage of rental properties than sale properties so maybe it's not a bad thing that some more of them go for rent.

cunnifferous · 02-02-2020 8:24pm

I'm not seeing any asking price drops either in the North Wicklow area. In fact some of the new builds seems to be reaching even higher. 3 bed semi-d with asking of 485k in one such new development. I drove around another new development today and quite a few still seem vacant despite being finished so I don't know what that says.

Lot of 2nd hand houses in poor shape but refusing to accept any lower than asking despite needing 100k+ put into them. Any good 2nd hand houses not in bad shape selling fast but not too many of them around unfortunately.

ZX7R · 02-02-2020 8:49pm

cunnifferous wrote: »

I'm not seeing any asking price drops either in the North Wicklow area. In fact some of the new builds seems to be reaching even higher. 3 bed semi-d with asking of 485k in one such new development. I drove around another new development today and quite a few still seem vacant despite being finished so I don't know what that says.

Lot of 2nd hand houses in poor shape but refusing to accept any lower than asking despite needing 100k+ put into them. Any good 2nd hand houses not in bad shape selling fast but not too many of them around unfortunately.

How do you know if a house needs 100+
Put into them.
Your post and many many other posters keep coming out with similar quotes saying houses need x amount to fix.
It's strange that no posters give any idea where they get there figures from.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 02-02-2020 8:57pm

ZX7R wrote: »

How do you know if a house needs 100+
Put into them.
Your post and many many other posters keep coming out with similar quotes saying houses need x amount to fix.
It's strange that no posters give any idea where they get there figures from.

I've been told by my builder on a number of renovation jobs that they won't take on a job for less

ZX7R · 02-02-2020 9:01pm

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

I've been told by my builder on a number of renovation jobs that they won't take on a job for less

What type of asking prices for the houses

SteelyDanJalapeno · 02-02-2020 9:16pm

ZX7R wrote: »

What type of asking prices for the houses

200-250k all in cork city thou, does the asking price matter thou? Average size is probably a better metric, they were about 90sqm. And optional 1k per sqm for an extension

ZX7R · 02-02-2020 9:33pm

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

200-250k all in cork city thou, does the asking price matter thou? Average size is probably a better metric, they were about 90sqm. And optional 1k per sqm for an extension

Asking price matters a lot as your original post was about north Wicklow , asking prices in Wicklow are always high hardest county for planning ECT.
I've seen houses bought at €250k renovated and sold for €150k profit.
One of the few county's that didn't bottom out during the recession.
As far as cork goes I would not be able to comment .
But if I liked the house and was planning on living in it for a long period ,I would not be afraid to but €100k into it.

BarryD2 · 02-02-2020 9:37pm

Did I hear an ad today.... that the Sunday Property Supplement is back? Hmmmmmmmmm, where have we seen these before?

car_radio19834 · 02-02-2020 9:43pm

Anyone know what the prospective changes for first time buyers will be depending on the election?

I think i read something about FF allowing the FTB grant to be used for 2nd hand properties. Can it be used for the rebuilding ireland home loan?

bellylint · 02-02-2020 9:49pm

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/wicklow/bray
In Bray out of 66 prices movements over the span of last year only 7 are increases.

cunnifferous wrote: »

I'm not seeing any asking price drops either in the North Wicklow area. In fact some of the new builds seems to be reaching even higher. 3 bed semi-d with asking of 485k in one such new development. I drove around another new development today and quite a few still seem vacant despite being finished so I don't know what that says.

Lot of 2nd hand houses in poor shape but refusing to accept any lower than asking despite needing 100k+ put into them. Any good 2nd hand houses not in bad shape selling fast but not too many of them around unfortunately.

zweton · 02-02-2020 9:55pm

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Anyone know what the prospective changes for first time buyers will be depending on the election?

I think i read something about FF allowing the FTB grant to be used for 2nd hand properties. Can it be used for the rebuilding ireland home loan?

"FTB grant to be used for 2nd hand properties" This would be great if they did, I wonder why they were excluded in the first place...

ZX7R · 02-02-2020 9:57pm

bellylint wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/wicklow/bray
In Bray out of 66 prices movements over the span of last year only 7 are increases.

Last price reduction was last November the market has changed since

Foggy Jew · 02-02-2020 11:03pm

Foggy Jew wrote: »

I’m currently selling a property. I consulted two Estate Agents, both of whom gave me the same approximate of the value of the house. One suggested we put it on the market at that price, and the other suggested an initial asking price of €50,000 less ‘to generate interest & possibly start a bidding war’.

Doh!! I meant to ask you guys which Estate Agent I shoukd go with..... the realistic price guys or the undervaluers. Your input would be much appreciated. Thanks. Foggy

ebayissues · 02-02-2020 11:13pm

zweton wrote: »

"FTB grant to be used for 2nd hand properties" This would be great if they did, I wonder why they were excluded in the first place...

This will just push up house prices.

The next FTB was introduced, new builds I kept an eye out for jumped by 20k.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 03-02-2020 12:14am

ebayissues wrote: »

This will just push up house prices.

The next FTB was introduced, new builds I kept an eye out for jumped by 20k.

Strange why it was excluded in the first place. If people are getting free cash for new builds why shouldn't 2nd hand get it too.

headtheball14 · 03-02-2020 12:50am

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Strange why it was excluded in the first place. If people are getting free cash for new builds why shouldn't 2nd hand get it too.

It’s not strange at all. Why would they give a grant for an existing house to be bought by a ftb with additional money from the government. All you are doing is pushing prices up.
A new house has a large amount of its purchase price in vat, the builders working on it pay tax etc. So a new house pays money back immediately, the theory is it may not have been built without the grant. None of this applies to an existing house. It’s never been paid for second hand houses

Property Market 2020

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