When will the general public reach the stage 4 of denial?

06-03-2019 6:11pm

If you plan to have such trips more than a handful of times a year and don't have access to alternative car, an EV is not for you. As I have said a few times in the past I wouldn't buy an EV at the moment if you can do your usual trips without public charging.

The Finland once a year I have no plans to repeat but it can be done. But we also took the previous EV to Cornwall and that was fun and not a biggie. As were the one and only trips to Kerry and Clare we did in the past year. One 40 minute charge is all it takes from Dublin.

The Bishop Basher · 06-03-2019 6:13pm

n97 mini wrote: »

Ok so. You say there are many reasons to drive a diesel that don't start with chape. Tell us. I gave 6 reasons to buy an EV. Two started with chape.

Why would I ?

I have no issue with the reasons given by anyone for their choice of car.

That's the point.

It's you who's taking issue with other people's reasons and choices.

I completely understand why people are buying EV's. I get it. For a lot of people it makes sense and for most of them it's a financially prudent decision. Others will be early adopters and buy regardless of finances and others will buy for environmental reasons.

But there are many others for whom diesel still makes sense. Likewise for petrol, hybrid etc because for those people it's also financially prudent or because they do long distances, pull trailers, drive off road, can't charge at home etc.

In recent years I've had 2 535d's and an X5. All pre 2008. Do you reckon I had them for cheap tax or cheap fuel ? Really ? If I wanted cheap fuel and cheap tax would I not have bought a 520d ?

People buy cars for all sort of reasons, including EV's. The difference is you can't see past the EV's because that's your lived experience and you seem to have a problem with differing views.

I'll leave you at it..

KCross · 06-03-2019 6:20pm

OldMrBrennan83 wrote: »

Hopefully they won't. If I'm forced into electric before that then so be it, unless we're all forced onto pushbikes and buses before that.

I'm not against having an electric vehicle once it makes sense for me, and they will sooner rather than later, but for now I can't see any reason to.

It depends on your breaking point for taxes then, because increased carbon taxes is almost a certainty and thats going to hit ICE more than EV.

I do think though you have set yourself an impossible target of 600km in 5mins as your switching point. It might happen before 2030 but it wont be in an affordable car.

This thread is getting quite tiresome with the over and back bickering tbh.

All I can take from it is that some people will go down screaming before they switch and will fire out every myth they've read on the internet to justify their reasons for sticking with diesel. Fine, so be it.

Current EV's suit some people and they are happy to move to it now and very few go back once they try it, which speaks for itself.

And there is a BIG bunch of people in the middle waiting for the next wave of EV's which are due in 2020-2022. There will be alot of people switching at that time assuming the manufacturers deliver the volume... which remains to be seen.

KCross · 06-03-2019 6:28pm

The Enbalmer wrote: »

you know they can't be pushed off the road too? You have to get a low loader to move them.

huh?

You mentioned this in another thread as well. I really dont know where you get this stuff from.

If you put an EV in neutral it will freewheel the same as any other car.

You're not supposed to tow them on their driven axle but so what. If its broken down who cares whether its a low loader or not, you're not pushing it to the garage no more than you push your ICE to the garage.

You're putting up road blocks that dont really exist.

The Bishop Basher · 06-03-2019 6:39pm

KCross wrote: »

All I can take from it is that some people will go down screaming before they switch and will fire out every myth they've read on the internet to justify their reasons for sticking with diesel. Fine, so be it.

People will change when it makes practical and financial sense for them to do so given their individual and personal circumstances.

Those people who hang onto diesel for the sake of diesel will be outliers and priced out of it in the end anyway.

KCross · 06-03-2019 6:42pm

Rennaws wrote: »

People will change when it makes practical and financial sense for them to do so given their individual and personal circumstances.

Those people who hang onto diesel for the sake of diesel will be outliers and priced out of it in the end anyway.

Yea, thats more or less what I said.

For some, that time has already arrived.
For a big bunch of others it will be in the next wave of EV's... 2020-2022.

The Bishop Basher · 06-03-2019 6:51pm

Agreed and with improved charging infrastructure combined with recent announcements from the manufacturers I think the speed of change is going to catch a lot of people by surprise.

As someone who buys second hand i'll probably hang on as long as I can so there's as good a range of choice as possible to pick from but i'll be more then happy to switch when the time comes.

KCross · 06-03-2019 7:00pm

Rennaws wrote: »

Agreed and with improved charging infrastructure combined with recent announcements from the manufacturers I think the speed of change is going to catch a lot of people by surprise.

As someone who buys second hand i'll probably hang on as long as I can so there's as good a range of choice as possible to pick from but i'll be more then happy to switch when the time comes.

Do you think that surprise will equate to a large number of diesels being off-loaded at the "same time" and affecting resale values?

I think its a possibility. A simple tax change like '08 or banning of diesels from city centres etc could easily spark things.

It is very much dependent on what volumes of EV's the manufacturers deliver. They are delivering small volumes at present which is keeping a lid on things but if VAG deliver 3m EV's per year (their promise) things could change awfully fast!

n97 mini · 06-03-2019 7:22pm

Rennaws wrote: »

No it's not. There are many reasons why people drive diesels. Tax is potentially one of them..

n97 mini wrote: »

Ok so. You say there are many reasons to drive a diesel that don't start with chape. Tell us.

Rennaws wrote: »

Why would I ?

Maybe you can't.

unkel · 06-03-2019 7:33pm

samih wrote: »

No Unkel, that's the stage 2/3. The enbalmer wouldn't be in this forum if he was still at the stage 1.

I reckon he/she is only in this forum because this thread started in the main motors forum, but was moved here. And dismissing something as a fad is on a par with ignoring it.

06-03-2019 8:20pm

For many prospective car buyers, the EV option for a new car is too expensive relative to the ICE equivalent and the variable fuel prices (based on global supply & demand) means that when there is a surge in EV sales or the economy slows, the price of petrol & diesel falls, thus making the "payback" longer.

EVs are likely to continue to be cheaper to run for quite some time into the future, but at some time the government is going to want to replace the lost revenue from fuel sales.

I suspect that for these reasons, a significant percentage of car buyers will wait another year or two before going EV, of course the supply isn't there yet either, how many dealers have a yard with EVs ready to go?

The Bishop Basher · 06-03-2019 8:31pm

KCross wrote: »

Do you think that surprise will equate to a large number of diesels being off-loaded at the "same time" and affecting resale values?

Unlikely I would think because it'll always be limited by supply which has been problematic to date.

But it's difficult to see any scenario where depreciation on diesels won't increase significantly over the next 5 years or so.

drunkmonkey · 06-03-2019 8:36pm

You'd be hoping public transport is sorted out in the next few years so we don't have to buy all these new cars. Just checked I can get to Berlin cheaper than Dublin in the morning. Want to cut emissions cut the price of train tickets.

ted1 · 06-03-2019 8:55pm

prinzeugen wrote: »

And there is the wee issue of lithium production.

There was some article I read that Tesla would need to acquire every gram of worldwide lithium production (at current rates) for the next 20 years just to meet its targets.

Then you have the problem of regular power cuts. It might be more than a coincidence that the number of power outages where I live has increased since every second person bought a EV.

Averaged 1-2 per year. Now its 1-2 per month, all midweek around 6-7pm. The infrastructure cannot handle the power draw.

I’ve heard some rubbish in my day. But this take the proverbial

The Enbalmer · 06-03-2019 9:11pm

ted1 wrote:

Iâ€™ve heard some rubbish in my day. But this take the proverbial

Seems like the man made some good points..especially about lithium extraction. But then "green" electric car people don't wanna hear it.

ted1 · 06-03-2019 9:18pm

The Enbalmer wrote: »

Seems like the man made some good points..especially about lithium extraction. But then "green" electric car people don't wanna hear it.

I’m talking more about the power cut section. I haven’t looked up lithium mining to much. But I do know that it hasn’t being the cause of do much wars. Unlike the alternative

super_furry · 06-03-2019 9:22pm

If I can get reliably across the country on one charge and never have to worry about finding charging points or the time it takes to charge, then I'll switch.

Mike9832 · 06-03-2019 10:16pm

super_furry wrote: »

If I can get reliably across the country on one charge and never have to worry about finding charging points or the time it takes to charge, then I'll switch.

Tesla Model 3 LR can do Cork - Belfast on zero chargers @ 120 kmh

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8ztvc8/model_3_consumption_on_german_autobahn_74mph_120/

AndrewJRenko · 06-03-2019 10:21pm

Langston Gray Scapegoat wrote: »

Because public transport isn't going to replace ICE cars, but electric cars could.

Maybe that's because we haven't really invested properly in public transport for a decade or two? We badly need more infrastructure. It's a hard sell to propose that State funds should be used to subsidise new cars for those lucky enough to be able to afford them while we're crying out for investment in infrastructure. Enough carrots, time to take out the sticks.

bfa1509 · 06-03-2019 10:41pm

samih wrote: »

Having been here at the Electric Vehicles & Hybrids for quite some time I have seen the classic progress of opinions regarding a disruptive technology action.

1. First they ignore you
2. Then the riducule you
3. Then they fight you
4. Then you win

We appear to have entered the phase 3 quite firmly by now. The phase 1 was conquered when Mad_lad did sterling effort and finally got the mods to branch this forum from the main Motors back in about 2013.

The phase two was quite a long one and even now in 2019 there are odd snide remarks about the gen 1 LEAF. But even on the main forums we are entered well into the phase 3 now, while many have, at least in principle, admitted that future is bright and almost exclusively better post ICE for daily driving.

So when will the general car driving population realise the advantages of the BEVs and wonder why it took them so long to convert from being a fossil. I'm personally guessing it won't happen until 2020-21. And if availability is there not many will continue to buy a new ICE as their main mode of transport post 2023. So I predict we'll reach Norway like car buying stats by 2023 even without extra CO2 taxes.

Two words: Range Anxiety
(Dives for cover)

s7ryf3925pivug · 06-03-2019 10:54pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Maybe that's because we haven't really invested properly in public transport for a decade or two? We badly need more infrastructure. It's a hard sell to propose that State funds should be used to subsidise new cars for those lucky enough to be able to afford them while we're crying out for investment in infrastructure. Enough carrots, time to take out the sticks.

Gradually increasing taxes on ICE fuel and vehicles could fund susidies for EVs. Public transport is less of a silver bullet than you think it is, especially in a country with relatively low population density outside Dublin. Brilliant for big cities as demonstrated in NY, London, Amsterdam, Paris... pretty much anywhere with good trams or a good underground. But it's barely useful in rural areas and small villages.

creedp · 07-03-2019 2:32am

slave1 wrote: »

I don't think a Model X type car will ever hit me, whilst I'd love one (or one like it) I just can't ever see the time a car that size with those size batteries will ever hit a reasonable price bracket.
It's like we need more range but more range means more batteries and the more batteries means more weight and more weight means less range etc.

Neither do I but that's the problem with EVs at present. Great if they suit you in terms of commute distance and family size and whether you have an inclination to carry your dog around, tow a trailer/caravan, go off road etc. But for many they don't offer enough choice to meet their minimum needs for a car within an affordable price range. Until they do any attempt to tax people out of ICEs in favour of EV is unfairly discriminating against a significant proportion of the population.

prinzeugen · 07-03-2019 2:59am

ted1 wrote: »

I’ve heard some rubbish in my day. But this take the proverbial

How?? Care to explain how my post is taking the proverbial?

prinzeugen · 07-03-2019 3:13am

ted1 wrote: »

I’m talking more about the power cut section. I haven’t looked up lithium mining to much. But I do know that it hasn’t being the cause of do much wars. Unlike the alternative

Have a look at the ESB site. Regular "issues" around Garville Ave in Dublin 6. When it started happening we thought there was a fault in the house as was like someone had fired up an electric chair on death row like you see in the movies.

The lights dim and buzz, tv & computer die, power goes altogether and a minute or so later its back on.

I have been told that the cause could be EV owners using 2-3 extension leads to get power from the house to the car. In the rain... Minor short.

Most of the houses near me have big front gardens but only on street parking.

Cookie_Monster · 07-03-2019 3:43am

We had a VW ISO auditor in with us this time last year. He was very pro elec but at the same time thought it's just not feasible right now. A simple argument against it he had was basically: At the moment for two weeks in August half of Holland go on holidays. A huge number of these drive to Italy / southern France etc. I think he noted 35k to Italy alone. All fine in conventional cars as ranges vary, fill times are short and plenty of options. but how do you power that number of EVs on that specific route at that specific time of the year. Ranges are pretty similar, charging times are long and charging point are very limited. Even with increasing charging point there is nowhere near enough capacity to deal with an event like that either now or available in any sort of realistic time frame.

EV are fine for individuals, mass adaptation however will throw up huge capacity issues that simply cannot be solved currently.

drunkmonkey · 07-03-2019 3:52am

Good point, How long before there's enough chargers in Dublin to handle Cork and Kerry in an All Ireland if they travelled in EV's.

AndrewJRenko · 07-03-2019 8:25am

creedp wrote: »

any attempt to tax people out of ICEs in favour of EV is unfairly discriminating against a significant proportion of the population.

Pumping noxious emissions, especially diesel fumes, into the atmosphere is unfairly discriminating against a significant proportion of the population.

PS I have a diesel

AndrewJRenko · 07-03-2019 8:27am

prinzeugen wrote: »

Most of the houses near me have big front gardens but only on street parking.

Well boo hoo hoo - maybe it's time that they stopped expecting to use public space for storage of their private property?

ted1 · 07-03-2019 9:37am

prinzeugen wrote: »

Have a look at the ESB site. Regular "issues" around Garville Ave in Dublin 6. When it started happening we thought there was a fault in the house as was like someone had fired up an electric chair on death row like you see in the movies.

The lights dim and buzz, tv & computer die, power goes altogether and a minute or so later its back on.

I have been told that the cause could be EV owners using 2-3 extension leads to get power from the house to the car. In the rain... Minor short.

Most of the houses near me have big front gardens but only on street parking.

How many electric cars on your road ?
I find it hard to believe that people are using 2-3 extension leads to charge their car on public roads.
What is the power being cut? I’d assume the MCB in the consumer board is tripping.
There’s a 600 euro grant for a home charger. You can’t blame infrastructure for people’s action , which I don’t believe is happening.

Gumbo · 07-03-2019 9:57am

prinzeugen wrote: »

I have been told that the cause could be EV owners using 2-3 extension leads to get power from the house to the car. In the rain... Minor short.

Who told you? Joe in the pub?

McGiver · 07-03-2019 10:11am

Langston Gray Scapegoat wrote:

Gradually increasing taxes on ICE fuel and vehicles could fund susidies for EVs. Public transport is less of a silver bullet than you think it is, especially in a country with relatively low population density outside Dublin. Brilliant for big cities as demonstrated in NY, London, Amsterdam, Paris... pretty much anywhere with good trams or a good underground. But it's barely useful in rural areas and small villages.

Yet Switzerland and Germany cover almost every corner of the country with trains and buses. Not talking about big cities now (say >100k people). The same goes for Austria and the Czech Republic. Sorry for OT but had to comment on that.
Other than I agree and I'm 100% Irish Gov will tax fossil fuels as hell gradually whilst increasing EV subsidies, it's the easiest route to push the market to EVs.

McGiver · 07-03-2019 10:17am

drunkmonkey wrote:

Progressive Urban People!!!

Care to respond with actual rational arguments?

Otherwise you just proved that you firmly belong to the rural conservative (i didn't want to be say backward) way of thinking group. Emotional drivel, hearsay, anecdotal evidence, superstitions and prejudice are your friends.

eagle eye · 07-03-2019 10:26am

McGiver wrote:

Yet Switzerland and Germany cover almost every corner of the country with trains and buses. Not talking about big cities now (say >100k people). The same goes for Austria and the Czech Republic. Sorry for OT but had to comment on that. Other than I agree and I'm 100% Irish Gov will tax fossil fuels as hell gradually whilst increasing EV subsidies, it's the easiest route to push the market to EVs.

It'll be great fun when all the social welfare crowd who cannot afford a new car can't afford to run their old car because of the high taxes on fossil fuels. What's gonna happen then?
Also, classic cars is a big thing. Very unfair to make that much more expensive for people.

KCross · 07-03-2019 10:27am

prinzeugen wrote: »

I have been told that the cause could be EV owners using 2-3 extension leads to get power from the house to the car. In the rain... Minor short.

I'd echo others comments.... who told you?

And even if there were a few people using extensions leads causing a short it would not cause a short in your house. That would simply trip that circuit in their house, it doesnt take down the whole neighbourhood.

And you've mentioned 2-3 extension leads which means the maximum that those 3 extension leads could be drawing if they were all working at the same time would be 30amps..... one electric shower in your house is more than that!

You've put to and two together and got 22.

I'll take you at your word that you are having issues with lights dimming etc. That means you have a local voltage issue which does happen. You need to contact ESB and get them out. They will install a monitor for a few weeks and analyse the stats and then fix it. They are required by law to do so. Call them.

Its definitely not 2-3 extension leads charging EV's that are causing it anyway!

creedp · 07-03-2019 10:38am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Pumping noxious emissions, especially diesel fumes, into the atmosphere is unfairly discriminating against a significant proportion of the population.

PS I have a diesel

Great argument if the Govt didn't promote clean diesels in 2008.

KCross · 07-03-2019 10:47am

creedp wrote: »

Great argument if the Govt didn't promote clean diesels in 2008.

No disrespect but you can look back and blame someone or you can look forward and make change.

The govt made the wrong call based on bad advice and lies from the manufacturers. It isnt the first or last mistake a govt are going to make. It doesnt mean you stand still and continue to compound the mistake.

A gradual shift away from fossil fuel is what's required. And cars bought back in the boom are well depreciated now anyway. Anyone who is buying a new diesel in the last few years cant complain. Its not like there have been no warnings of upcoming taxes against same.

mickdw · 07-03-2019 10:50am

The argument that carbon taxes will hit ice cars more than EV while true is missing the entire point.
Carbon taxes if applied to a level that would still leave diesel anyway affordable will go nowhere near bringing in enough tax if the entire population swap to EV.
Government will bring in an additional EV tax to get their revenues back to where they like them so the motorist will pay regardless.
This is where the whole green nonsense falls down.
Carbon tax introduced to make us all change our ways , save the planet etc however if we all are so good at that that we switch to EV, they will just tax us another way.

Wibbs · 07-03-2019 10:56am

ted1 wrote: »

I haven’t looked up lithium mining to much. But I do know that it hasn’t being the cause of do much wars. Unlike the alternative

Maybe you should. Indeed I would contend it's the responsibility of everyone to look at how they live their lives affects others and the planet.

Lithium mining is incredibly toxic and messy and cobalt mining is worse and the local human cost is very high. It hasn't started wars yet because demand isn't high enough. Conflicts over oil didn't kick off until many decades after it was first pumped outa the ground.

Battery tech almost certainly will cause conflicts as lithium and cobalt are in shorter supply and in fewer geographic locations than oil is. Something like 80% of cobalt is mined in the Congo, a hellhole of a state. Blood diamonds? Blood Cobalt would be a good fit. It's rare everywhere else. Elon Musk responded to the lithium issues by saying he'd only source it from places like the US, but there simply isn't enough of the stuff. And that's for today's requirements.

New battery tech using more common elements? That's one hope alright, but so far even with a few "next big thing" nothing much has changed and the decades old proven tech of Li-ion is still the frontrunner by a large margin. Recycling old batteries is difficult, lithium in particular is hard to extract. The finite supply will likely make for advancements in the processes and we'll no doubt find other sources of these elements.

Basically if anyone thinks the happy clappy future is electric won't cause similar issues as reliance on oil production and the current churn of the car consumer culture they're either misinformed or extremely naive.

cruizer101 · 07-03-2019 11:04am

kceire wrote: »

In fairness, EV's don't get rid of congestion. They help with air quality, but traffic is still a killer.

If anything they have the potential to put more traffic on the roads as if fuel costs are cheap people are far more likely to jump in the car to go somewhere.

Mike9832 wrote:

Tesla Model 3 LR can do Cork - Belfast on zero chargers @ 120 kmh

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors...ahn_74mph_120/

Fair enough but realistically when how long before a car like that is available for the masses. i.e. 5,000ish on the second hand market.

The Bishop Basher · 07-03-2019 11:14am

mickdw wrote: »

Carbon tax introduced to make us all change our ways , save the planet etc however if we all are so good at that that we switch to EV, they will just tax us another way.

There are many unknowns but this is a given..

The government take will be the same, if not more, regardless of what we all drive. They'll just give it another name and charge us anyway and we can be sure they'll do it in a very unfair way just as they did with motor tax in 08.

But I never understand why current EV drivers are in such a rush to get others buying them. It might inflate prices in the used market for a little while but more EV drivers will put extra pressure on existing infrastructure and will significantly push up the cost.

I'd be encouraging people to keep their diesels for as long as they can.

eagle eye · 07-03-2019 11:19am

mickdw wrote:

The argument that carbon taxes will hit ice cars more than EV while true is missing the entire point. Carbon taxes if applied to a level that would still leave diesel anyway affordable will go nowhere near bringing in enough tax if the entire population swap to EV. Government will bring in an additional EV tax to get their revenues back to where they like them so the motorist will pay regardless. This is where the whole green nonsense falls down. Carbon tax introduced to make us all change our ways , save the planet etc however if we all are so good at that that we switch to EV, they will just tax us another way.

Yeah it'll just go back to a road tax.

n97 mini · 07-03-2019 11:39am

Wibbs wrote: »

Lithium mining is incredibly toxic and messy and cobalt mining is worse and the local human cost is very high.

Chile has the largest lithium reserves of any country, and is the second biggest producer of lithium. None of it is mined. It comes from brine.

Cobalt is not a requirement to make lithium batteries. BYD, the second biggest EV manufacturer doesn't use it.

Wibbs wrote: »

New battery tech using more common elements? That's one hope alright, but so far even with a few "next big thing" nothing much has changed and the decades old proven tech of Li-ion is still the frontrunner by a large margin. Recycling old batteries is difficult, lithium in particular is hard to extract. The finite supply will likely make for advancements in the processes and we'll no doubt find other sources of these elements.

Lithium battery degradation is caused by dendrites. Solid electrolytes (like glass) stop dendrites. That's coming soon. Sodium batteries are at an advanced stage of development too.

KCross · 07-03-2019 11:40am

mickdw wrote: »

The argument that carbon taxes will hit ice cars more than EV while true is missing the entire point.
Carbon taxes if applied to a level that would still leave diesel anyway affordable will go nowhere near bringing in enough tax if the entire population swap to EV.
Government will bring in an additional EV tax to get their revenues back to where they like them so the motorist will pay regardless.
This is where the whole green nonsense falls down.
Carbon tax introduced to make us all change our ways , save the planet etc however if we all are so good at that that we switch to EV, they will just tax us another way.

I dont think anyone said carbon taxes would cover the entire shortfall. Additional measures will be required.... motor tax, VRT, road pricing etc.... carbon tax is just one of the measures.

There wont, imo, be EV taxes. There will be ownership and usage taxes. Overall ICE will be hit harder.

blackbox · 07-03-2019 11:51am

mickdw wrote: »

The argument that carbon taxes will hit ice cars more than EV while true is missing the entire point.
Carbon taxes if applied to a level that would still leave diesel anyway affordable will go nowhere near bringing in enough tax if the entire population swap to EV.
Government will bring in an additional EV tax to get their revenues back to where they like them so the motorist will pay regardless.
This is where the whole green nonsense falls down.
Carbon tax introduced to make us all change our ways , save the planet etc however if we all are so good at that that we switch to EV, they will just tax us another way.

At the moment, the fact that tax/duty is so low on electricity (never mind free charging!) compared to petrol or diesel means that electric cars are effectively subsidised by around €3000 per 20k km. This is on top of subsidies for VRT, charge points etc.

Electric car users are getting great value in chape fuel at the moment. When the proportion of electric cars becomes significant the government will have to find some other source to replace this lost revenue.

KCross · 07-03-2019 11:55am

blackbox wrote: »

At the moment, the fact that tax/duty is so low on electricity (never mind free charging!) compared to petrol or diesel means that electric cars are effectively subsidised by around €3000 per 20k km. This is on top of subsidies for VRT, charge points etc.

Electric car users are getting great value in chape fuel at the moment. When the proportion of electric cars becomes significant the government will have to find some other source to replace this lost revenue.

Indeed, the incentives will be withdrawn in a few years.... VRT on EV will go back to the same as ICE, motor tax will go up etc.

The reason the grant exists is becuase EV's are more expensive to buy. The idea is that once the manufacturers can deliver them at similar price to ICE then the grants can be withdrawn. They have already started that process in the UK. The same will happen here, so EV motoring overall will cost more than it does today.... its just not known when that will be.

ICE motoring, imo, will increase more though, in the same way that pre '08 cars cost more after those tax changes.

The Bishop Basher · 07-03-2019 11:58am

KCross wrote: »

There wont, imo, be EV taxes. There will be ownership and usage taxes. Overall ICE will be hit harder.

ICE will be hit harder for a short time after which EV's will have to carry the burden ICE has carried till now.

Motoring isn't going to get any cheaper. It will only ever go one way as it has always done.

There's no escaping the fact that if we all changed to EV's tomorrow, the government would have a new tax in place by Monday.

They couldn't afford not to.

KCross · 07-03-2019 12:05pm

Wibbs wrote: »

Maybe you should. Indeed I would contend it's the responsibility of everyone to look at how they live their lives affects others and the planet.

Lithium mining is incredibly toxic and messy and cobalt mining is worse and the local human cost is very high. It hasn't started wars yet because demand isn't high enough. Conflicts over oil didn't kick off until many decades after it was first pumped outa the ground.

Battery tech almost certainly will cause conflicts as lithium and cobalt are in shorter supply and in fewer geographic locations than oil is. Something like 80% of cobalt is mined in the Congo, a hellhole of a state. Blood diamonds? Blood Cobalt would be a good fit. It's rare everywhere else. Elon Musk responded to the lithium issues by saying he'd only source it from places like the US, but there simply isn't enough of the stuff. And that's for today's requirements.

New battery tech using more common elements? That's one hope alright, but so far even with a few "next big thing" nothing much has changed and the decades old proven tech of Li-ion is still the frontrunner by a large margin. Recycling old batteries is difficult, lithium in particular is hard to extract. The finite supply will likely make for advancements in the processes and we'll no doubt find other sources of these elements.

Basically if anyone thinks the happy clappy future is electric won't cause similar issues as reliance on oil production and the current churn of the car consumer culture they're either misinformed or extremely naive.

You've raised good points. There are issues that need to be resolved and you've even highlighted some of those solutions yourself so its not beyond the realm of possibility that they will be solved in the short term and the manufacturers acknowledge those issues too so they will be forced to resolve them.

The alternative is that we stick with fossil fuel. That clearly isnt sustainable. We need to look for better alternatives.

An EV drivetrain is it for now. There is no perfect solution. I havent seen a better alternative. Have you?

Do you advocate for staying with ICE and no EV's or work with both?

mickdw · 07-03-2019 12:14pm

blackbox wrote: »

mickdw wrote: »

The argument that carbon taxes will hit ice cars more than EV while true is missing the entire point.
Carbon taxes if applied to a level that would still leave diesel anyway affordable will go nowhere near bringing in enough tax if the entire population swap to EV.
Government will bring in an additional EV tax to get their revenues back to where they like them so the motorist will pay regardless.
This is where the whole green nonsense falls down.
Carbon tax introduced to make us all change our ways , save the planet etc however if we all are so good at that that we switch to EV, they will just tax us another way.

At the moment, the fact that tax/duty is so low on electricity (never mind free charging!) compared to petrol or diesel means that electric cars are effectively subsidised by around €3000 per 20k km. This is on top of subsidies for VRT, charge points etc.

Electric car users are getting great value in chape fuel at the moment. When the proportion of electric cars becomes significant the government will have to find some other source to replace this lost revenue.

Yes hence why i believe as per an earlier post that the next couple of years might be the golden period for ev ownership with the end user advantages rapidly disappearing thereafter.

KCross · 07-03-2019 12:14pm

Rennaws wrote: »

ICE will be hit harder for a short time after which EV's will have to carry the burden ICE has carried till now.

Motoring isn't going to get any cheaper. It will only ever go one way as it has always done.

There's no escaping the fact that if we all changed to EV's tomorrow, the government would have a new tax in place by Monday.

They couldn't afford not to.

Yes and No.
Yes, the tax has to come from somewhere.

The motor tax take since '08, AFAIK, reduced significantly due to the majority of cars falling into much lower tax brackets than before. That lost revenue, which has nothing to do with EV's, hasnt been recouped from motorists... has it?

It's come from general taxation. All tax just goes into one big pot anyway.

Motoring related taxes are going to have to change. Its near impossible to target tax against EV fuel in the home. The taxes will come from multiple sources.... motor tax, VRT, road pricing and even general taxation.

If they introduce something like road pricing motoring could get cheaper for some people and more expensive for others so it wont be a simple black or white answer.

In any case... we are years away from it. imo, if an EV suits you today and you buy one you will enjoy cheap motoring for the next 5-10 years at least. Anyones guess after that.

KCross · 07-03-2019 12:16pm

mickdw wrote: »

Yes hence why i believe as per an earlier post that the next couple of years might be the golden period for ev ownership with the end user advantages rapidly disappearing thereafter.

There are more advantages to EV motoring than just cheap fuel!

When will the general public reach the stage 4 of denial?

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