THE MELBOURNE CUP

Melbourne up Pricewise.


Empire at 20-1 to end Godolphin Cup blues
There probably isn't a race anywhere in the world Godolphin would like to win more than the Emirates Melbourne Cup. They have come awfully close many times and this year they can put the record straight by winning it with Royal Empire, who has had the contest on his agenda all season.
Central Park, Give The Slip, Beekeeper and Crime Scene have all hit the frame for Godolphin and I think Royal Empire is a better horse than all those and comes into the race having been prepared for months now.
He looked very good when slamming Red Cadeaux in the Geoffrey Freer three starts ago and has run real ly well in defeat the last two times, despite conditions not really being to his liking.
There was no disgrace in being beaten by stablemate Secret Number on ground much too soft at Ascot last time and all the vibes from Australia are that Royal Empire has settled in really well and looks primed to run a big race.
Kerrin McEvoy certainly fancies his chances, he is well drawn in stall 11 and the Godolphin horses are in flying form, so there’s everything to like about his chance, especially as the step up to two miles is certain to suit.
The big danger might be the French-trained mare Verema. She was the ante-post choice for this race a few weeks ago and like Royal Empire everything seems to have gone smoothly in her preparation.
Alain de Royer-Dupre won the race with Americain in 2010 and I think these slowly run Australian events suit the French horses perfectly as they are trained to settle and sprint which is exactly what is required.
She will run well as should the topweight Dunaden, although he is not getting any younger and Jamie Spemcer will need luck from stall one.
Of the other European trained runners, I think Brown Panther needs it to rain quite hard if he is to be fully effective, while Dandino was trained for the minute for the Caulfield Cup and that race might have suited him better than the two miles he faces today.
Mount Athos has to be taken extremely seriously after his desperate luck last year and if Craig Williams can tuck him in from stall 22 he has to go well.
I think his chance depends on the early pace because if they go slow, as they usually do in Australia, Mount Athos is going to have to give ground away and come wide up the home straight, or depend on luck by switching to the rail behind a wall of horses.
It is by no means beyond the realms of possibility that Mount Athos can still win, but stall 22 certainly makes life a good deal more difficult.
Most of the best home hopes were formerly trained in Europe and it says something about the state of Australian middle-distance racing that only five in the 24-runner field were bred in the Southern Hemisphere.
Dear Demi might well be the best of the longshots. She has run well in the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon on her last two starts and will see out the two miles no problem. However, she has had a tough time of it recently and once again has not had the best of luck with the draw.

Advice

Royal Empire
4.0oam Tuesday, Flemington
1pt win at 20-1 generally


Already advised
Verem
1pt win at 20-1

Waldpark
Non-runner

Went with Royal Empire @ 16s for the win and Ibicenco e/w @ 66/1 who won the Geelong Cup.

Had a little bet on Fawkner 16/1 for interest. Huge, huge question marks on whether he'll stay given he started out the year finishing 3rd to Black Caviar over 6f but if he does I think he'll run a big race. It's a bloody big if though!

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not a fan of this race at all. I don't like how a country's biggest race is a handicap and the horses are ran over silly distances to keep their mark down. Didn't Seville run over six or seven furlongs before it last year

You don't seem to be a fan of any of the races outside of europe . when someone as travelled as johhny G says the way forward is all to the east you have to take notice. This is their biggest day of the year. It's a fantastic occasion. Sure the quality of horse might leave a bit to be desired but that shouldn't detract from competitiveness of it. And the prize money.1st $3,600,000, 2nd $900,000, 3rd $450,000, 4th $250,000, 5th $175,000, 6th $125,000, 7th $125,000, 8th $125,000, 9th $125,000, 10th $125,000. :eek:

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not a fan of this race at all. I don't like how a country's biggest race is a handicap and the horses are ran over silly distances to keep their mark down. Didn't Seville run over six or seven furlongs before it last year

Would the Grand National not be our equivalent?

Not a massive fan of the race myself for betting purposes but I think its a great spectacle.

There's no flat handicap in Europe that comes close to it.

Slattsy wrote: »

Hate the race, hate Australians, Australian beer is piss poor at best.

Couldn't be arsed. Awful country. Crocodile Dundee? Christian Bale? **** off.

Christian Bale is Welsh

I do love watching this race, and haven’t any real fancies this year but at teh moment there is a couple of what look standout prices for me.

Seville has had this in mind now for a long time and may just have the bit of class needed to forge ahead down the straight. He is 20/1 with ladbrokes and that looks a few points too big.

Simenon, is a proven Group 1 Stayer and is most certainly in here on the wrong weight, he still obviously has a lot to do in this field with the amount on luck required, but its possible this race could suit him perfectly and i didn’t think he’d be 14/1 on the day of the race. He is sure to be flying at the finish and let hope this time he gets there on time. He quite possibly has the right Jockey on him for his style of racing..

I have to trow in a huge price one in this race and of the big priced horses the one most likely to have a shot looks to be Ethiopia. He is a former winner of the Australian Derby and although he has been somewhat disappointing since, he looks to have improved in his last run and hopefully has had this race in mind. He looks worth a small bet a 66/1

1 Point win Seville 20/1 Ladbrokes

1 Point win Simenon 14/1 Bet365

1/2 Point win Ethiopia 66/1 Generally

I'm going with Verema for the win, good draw.

tomaussie wrote: »

You don't like Jessica Gomes, Pania Rose, Emily Scott, Holly Valance, Imogen Bailey, Krystal Forscutt, Miranda Kerr ???

You don't like Feral hop hog, murals imperial stout, stone & wood ale, kooinda pale ale, red duck, white rabbit dark ale
???

I know this is an Irish site but you sound English mate with all the crying.


How long did you live here for and where ?

I think the aidankkk fella has definitely picked out the most likely outsider in Ethiopia.

Don't forget Rhiannon Fish.


Didn't Ethiopia finish last in 2012 ?
And he gets no respite from the handicapper.
Don't fancy that at all.


Seville has been laid out for this for 2 years.
He'll do for me.

Nulty wrote: »

I delayed my each way on Masked Marvel cause thought his price might drift further...I can't bring myself to back it even now. He's done nothing since his leger win.

So hard to pick another....so I won't.

Yeah, he looks so well handicapped, but I can't escape the feeling that he's just no good anymore.