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Betting on the Treaty Referendum

  • 09-03-2012 10:09pm
    #1
    3DataModem
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,031 ✭✭✭


    The referendum "No" vote looks like good value to me at 15/8.

    With Lisbon and Nice being nixed first time around, I think this has a good shot of coming off especially as the "No" side will be trumpeting the Greek default as a soft option for Ireland.

    Thoughts? I put the probability of "No" at about 60% or so.


Comments

  • #2
    okidoki987
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,625 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    My guess is, by the time the vote comes around, people will be so scared of what will happen if they vote no with the usual scare mongering tactics by the politicans, they will vote Yes instead.


  • #3
    3DataModem
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,031 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    My guess is, by the time the vote comes around, people will be so scared of what will happen if they vote no with the usual scare mongering tactics by the politicans, they will vote Yes instead.

    Didn't work for Nice or Lisbon, but that's a fair point. I'm hoping the price will shorten to odds on (ie what I think is fair) so I can green it.


  • #4
    tipptom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    My guess is, by the time the vote comes around, people will be so scared of what will happen if they vote no with the usual scare mongering tactics by the politicans, they will vote Yes instead.
    I am inclined to agree with you,on the face of it that price seems like a good bet in a 2 horse race but this government secretly signed a deal with the EU before hand that they can use against the electorate to blackmail us in to voting yes and the scare tactics they will use if they see the polls turning against them will be unreal never mind the claptrap Enda Kenny is already using.I also think they are going to come back with a (token)sweetner at the end of the month on the promissary payments.


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