FF seats next election

3DataModem · 24-01-2011 1:40pm #1

Spread is currently 28-31. Too tight a spread methinks but probably justified.

Anyone have any opinions either way?

smilerf · 24-01-2011 1:41pm

i'd say they be lucky to get 25

3DataModem · 24-01-2011 1:45pm

smilerf wrote: »

i'd say they be lucky to get 25

Really? You can get 7/2 on them getting <25. Fill your boots!

Bumsex · 24-01-2011 3:51pm

3DataModem wrote: »

Really? You can get 7/2 on them getting <25. Fill your boots!

i wouldnt be saying fill your boots,by just one comment being made saying they would be luck to get 25...

johnjo seems to know a bit about politics betting so he might have a solid enough view about it..

ft9 · 24-01-2011 4:47pm

Aye, Jonjo is the only man for this.

Derfil · 24-01-2011 4:50pm

24 was the figure I have for them

Juwwi · 24-01-2011 7:10pm

Derfil wrote: »

24 was the figure I have for them

21-25 inclusive is 4/1

CoalBucket · 24-01-2011 7:15pm

Opinion polls are different from when election polls with local factors taken into account. If I was having a punt on it i'd say between 31-35 although id much prefer 0 seats for them.

KevIRL · 24-01-2011 7:33pm

20 or less was available on PP yesterday at 4/1. Now 3/1. The Tribune had an analysis of the recent opinion poll that had FF at 14% nationwide and 10% in Dublin - giving them a minimum off 11 seats and a maximum of 20

ninebeanrows · 25-01-2011 12:07am

i think 40-45 seats.

JONJO THE MISER · 25-01-2011 4:30am

ft9 wrote: »

Aye, Jonjo is the only man for this.

Why thank you and yes you are right, i have never got a political bet wrong yet and most of my bets were big prices.
Now i haven't had the chance to study the election yet and i will be waiting till nearer the time if ye can hold on.

hinault · 25-01-2011 4:32am

25 seats would be a good FF result, given their recent antics.

I wouldn't be surprised if they get less than 20 seats though.

JONJO THE MISER · 25-01-2011 4:45am

Just looking at the Constituency betting for Dublin South and Eamon Ryan for the green's looks good at Evs.

The Black Pearl · 25-01-2011 12:21pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Just looking at the Constituency betting for Dublin South and Eamon Ryan for the green's looks good at Evs.

no access in work, what price is trevor sargent to get elected?

kincsem · 26-01-2011 9:23am

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Just looking at the Constituency betting for Dublin South and Eamon Ryan for the green's looks good at Evs.

A good lay at evens imo. My guess is he has little chance.
He was elected on the ninth count in 2002, and on the eighth count in 2007. Since then he has been in a failed coalition.

minty16 · 26-01-2011 1:13pm

Ive seen quotes for Trevor Seargent of 9/4. I disagree with Jonjo, the reply was spot on, a great lay at evens.

amacachi · 26-01-2011 1:15pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

i think 40-45 seats.

That's my feeling as well.

thesandeman · 26-01-2011 10:46pm

Celtic were always good for election markets.
Wonder if they are doing it this time? Must pop in tomorrow.

thenutflush · 27-01-2011 11:24pm

Going to have a bet on this I'd say. My gut instinct is that it will be either 36-40 or 41-45, which are 4/1 and 7/1 respectively with paddy power.

I think Micheal Martin will come across well in any televised debates which are going to happen and will help Fianna Fail claw back a lot votes from former life-long/ die-hard supporters who at present feel they are going to vote for Fine Gael by default. I think he is quick-thinking and articulate enough to expose Eamon Gilmore and the Labour policy for it's soundbytes and unviable policies. I also believe that while the opinion polls show figures of 14% etc who are going to vote for Fianna Fail, I'd suspect there are many people who are, at the moment, reluctant to admit that they are going to vote for them, so I'd say the real figure is something like 20%. Going to wait to see what others think before I place a bet though..

UnitedIrishman · 28-01-2011 1:48am

Fine Gael minority govt. at 16/1 is too big for me. Could well happen depending on what happens between them and Labour.

thenutflush · 28-01-2011 3:52am

Have went with 36- 40 seats @ 4/1, 8 euro for interests sake really..

thenutflush · 30-01-2011 10:53pm

^ this has gone to 3/1 now, and the odds in general are shifting to show that Fianna Fail are now expected to gain more seats than they were expected to a week or two ago.

I know they have taken a thrashing in the opinion polls over the last year or two but it's also true that they have won 75 or more seats in all but 1 general election since 1977 (they won 68 seats in 1992). Just going by this, it seems that 41 - 45 seats at 13/2 is a good bet; I can only see it getting shorter in the run up to the election. If Fianna Fail end up surprising us by doing better than we all expect, they will probably fall into this range.

I know a few people who feel they should vote Fine Gael by default but feel so disillusioned by this idea that they are deciding not to vote at all; If this is a common scenario, and I think it is, this will give Fianna Fail candidates a boost.

scheister · 31-01-2011 6:40pm

im looking at 36-40 or 41-45 i dont think it will as bad as people think.

3DataModem · 27-02-2011 9:56am

Jaysus. I was way off.

FF seats next election

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