Estofex have gone with a level 1 for Ireland today.
The sharp cold front of the Atlantic cyclone will cross Ireland in the 11 to 18 UTC time frame. Forecast models agree on marginal CAPE and a very strong wind field with up to 20 m/s shear and up to 400 m^2/s^2 storm-relative helicity across the lowest kilometer, respectively. Supported by strong lift ahead of the new Atlantic short-wave trough, a cold frontal rainband could form. Severe wind gusts are possible, and one or two tornadoes are not ruled out in case discrete stronger updrafts form within such a line. It is questionable if convection will be deep enough to produce lightning, though, hence only a level 1 is issued.
The cold front will encounter more stable air along its further path over England and Scotland and any remaining convection will gradually weaken. Scattered to widespread, non-convective severe wind gusts are still possible in the warm sector and along the cold front, but they are not reflected by the ESTOFEX threat level scheme.
Scattered postfrontal showers will gradually grow deeper and might produce a little lightning over the Celtic Sea towards the end of the forecast period, but by then the wind field should relax enough to keep the wind gusts below 25 m/s.