Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

All comes down to price. It is inferior to the A21N, everyone knows this. If they get it for pennies though, they’ll make it work, even if they just sell the production slots when things pick up. From MOL’s point of view, a virtually free Max 10 can be as inefficient as it likes vs the most in demand and therefore least discounted aircraft in the world in the Neo.

And don’t forget, Airbus flat out refuse to deal with the Ryanair group.

Airbus does not enter into sales discussions with Ryanair anymore.

Ryanair group does have some Airbus aircraft which came via Lauda, but has never bought directly from Airbus, that said nothing stopping them leasing

HTCOne wrote: »

...
And don’t forget, Airbus flat out refuse to deal with the Ryanair group.

And knowing that, why would Boeing give RyanAir any special discounts?

MJohnston wrote: »

Because Boeing aren't competing with Airbus, they're competing with bankruptcy.

And Ryanair has a tendency to order big when no one else wants to. Ryanair placed a massive order post 9/11. After Southwest, Ryanair is Boeing's biggest customer.

Ryanair chose not to order the MAX10 though - the -200 hits their sweet spot of capacity vs. costs - cabin crew included. So why would they order MAX10 now, especially as they can still drive a very hard bargain on unbuilt MAX-8-200 frames? Any -10s gathering dust are Boeing's problem.

IngazZagni wrote: »

The max 10 didn't exist when they ordered the Max 8 200 though. Times change and I see no reason why they wouldn't want to take advantage of a higher capacity varient on certain routes. Itll all come down to money and what offers are on the table from Boeing.

Very good offers I'd say!

banie01 wrote: »

FAA engineers union issues a statement that says MAX is still unsafe and recommended changes don't go far enough.

As has been discussed on thread, Boeing have relied on grandfathering of the original typecerts to allow modification and upgrade to the original 50's airframe.

This allowed changes to be made without a commensurate change to the cockpit alert systems.
The NATCA/FAA engineers have made 5 recommendations to the "comment" phase of the FAA recertification process.

This has long been the elephant in the room for the MAX imo.
If it loses its typecert grandfathering, it is fundamentally uncertifiable and Boeing can't change that with a software fix.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/boeing-whistle-blower-says-proposed-737-max-fixes-aren-t-enough

No expert on Aviation here, but if I understand correctly, does this not highlight huge flaws in the FAA's own certification process?

Have they allowed this to actually happen and take place, because they allow continuous upgrades to a plane, where full certification to the new requirements do not apply?

Is this similar to a car company using an old chassis and then claiming, we do not need to install ABS brakes or rear seat belt, as we have only upgraded the previous car??


Who decides at the start of the MAX project what certification, validation and applicable regulations apply?

Does the FAA review the plans at the start and say; Yes these planned updates will qualify for "typecert grandfathering"?

If they reverse this decision now, are they not partially responsible? (Unless Boeing done some not in the original plans).

When was the last time Boeing got full certification on this "Air frame"? Could someone post a picture of this first certified aircraft and the MAX, with maybe short description, to see how many difference have been added over the years?

Meanwhile Airbus are planning new Hydrogen planes (I assume a completed new aircraft with full certification:)) and boeing are planning how to add something new to their planes again or do they have something brand new coming?

banie01 wrote: »

Yes, it's even worse than a "flawed" process.
Boeing basically self certified the MAX, they dictated, led and even advised the FAA on the certification.

They are a cluster you know what. A former Boeing engineer told me it is actually forbidden for engineers at manufacturers to contact the FAA for clarifications on design issues, regulations etc unless the FAA specifically tell a specific engineer to liase with them. The FAA only contact them to tell them they've done something wrong.

Ryanair eyes order for up to 200 new Boeing jets

John Mulligan

Ryanair is eyeing an order for between 150 and 200 of Boeing's troubled 737 Max aircraft, the Irish Independent understands.

A deal for 150 Max jets would cost at least €15.9bn at list price and be the biggest commercial aircraft order placed anywhere in the world this year.

It's believed the order could be sealed by the end of the year as the Max is certified to fly again.

Such an huge order would be symbolically and financially important for struggling Boeing and also be in keeping with Ryanair's track record of buying jets during challenging economic conditions, when it can negotiate harder bargains.

The Irish Independent believes that talks between Ryanair and the US jet maker are focused on an order for a mix of Max 10 and Max 200 aircraft.

Even with a significant discount the order would be worth billions.

At list prices, the Max 200 sells for $124.8m (€106m) each, while a Max 10 costs $134.9m, according to Boeing. The 737 Max 200 can carry 200 passengers in a single cabin configuration, while the Max 10 can carry 204.

With Boeing trying to recover from the existential crisis the Max failure created for the aerospace company, coupled with a global airline industry that's being hammered by the Covid pandemic, any airline placing an order comes from a very strong bargaining position.

Boeing's Max jets have been grounded all over the world for more than 18 months following two deadly crashes involving the aircraft.

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recently been conducting a series of certification flights for the revamped jet.

On Wednesday, FAA boss Steve Dickson flew on a Max and said he "liked what I saw", adding that certification is "in the home stretch".

The head of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Patrick Ky, said last week that the agency expects to lift its technical ban on the Max soon after the FAA does, making for a November timeline. Mr Ky also said that there is "an end in sight" to EASA's work on the Max.

Ryanair - which currently has a fleet of more than 450 aircraft - was the launch customer for the Max 200, placing an order for 100 of the jets in 2014. Its total Max 200 orders - including commitments and options to buy - is 210.

In early February, before the pandemic struck, Ryanair group chief executive Michael O'Leary said that the airline was already in talks with Boeing about an order for Max 10 jets. He did not specify how many of the aircraft Ryanair was looking to buy.

One industry source suggested to the Irish Independent that Ryanair could place an order for significantly more than range of between 150 and 200 aircraft, but another downplayed that, arguing that too big an order could raise concerns for investors.

Ryanair is hoping to take delivery of its first Max aircraft in January or February next year, and to have between 30 and 40 of the jets in service in time for the summer of 2021.

Davy Stockbrokers also recently predicted that Ryanair will place an order with Boeing by the end of the year.

Ryanair has deep pockets with about €4bn of cash on its books as well as 333 unencumbered aircraft, with a book value of €7bn.

It boosted that financial fire-power when it raised €400m in equity last month via a share placement and subsequently issued a five-year €850m bond that was five times oversubscribed.

Ryanair has said it expects to see "significant growth opportunities".

Graham wrote: »

No surprise there.

Downturn in aviation, MOL calls Boeing sales. I'm on the way over lads. Drop the pants, assume the position.

That's literally what he said after 911 when he mopped up cancelled boeings

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/the-language-of-business-1.1055252

Fritzbox wrote: »

An interesting question would be, who has made the greatest financial loss over the last 6 months: Boeing or Ryanair?

If you strip out Boeings US Government subsidies (Military, Space etc. contracts) and look solely at their commercial aircraft business then Boeing by a landslide.

W1ll1s wrote: »

737 Max could be back in U.S. skies before end of year.

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/266558230/737-max-could-be-back-in-us-skies-before-end-of-year

E.U approval before year end also I read somewhere?

Fritzbox wrote: »

A trade war between whom?

Nice to see the MAX will be back in service soon.

The slow-burn one between the US and EU. If EISA had refused certification, particularly given the big lose for Boeing with the latest WTO ruling, and if Trump were reelected, he would be back to stoking the fires quick smart and claiming it was unfair.

Ryanair to begin operating the Max in February according to one aviation journalist

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1321457624076951557

cnocbui wrote: »

Yeah, they'll start one up, take it out onto a large, empty bit of apron, rev it up; do a few donuts and burn outs, shouting weeeeee, then take it back to the terminal and try and remember what passengers looked like.

Not a lot going to be happening in February. But, if things come back to normal for the summer (fingers crossed, prayers etc) then I can see a roaring trade in holidays abroad as people missed this year's trip. Ryanair will put on cheap tickets and they will be snapped up.

The general public really don't know and don't care what type of plane gets them to the destination.

In a fast moving world, sadly these Max crashes are old news for all but a limited number of aviation enthusiasts.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

That should be interesting, I guess they'll have more of their pilots do test flights or short runs to London and the engineers used to the new aircraft... Hopefully there's some sort of system in place at airports to get people flying again and routes up and running... Should help keep prices down when using the more efficient aircraft...

The majority of the first deliveries are going to Buzz in Poland, (that’s the plan) Ireland and the UK will most likely see them on delivery flights.

Yeap, Boeing can resume deliveries now and U.S customers can fly them, wonder how long before EASA follows suit....


https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1329042312559779841

The order book had taken a hammering even by July of this year. I'd be very curious to see where its at by the end of March 2021 after another 8 months of a fairly dead aviation market. A lot of airlines must be very thankful to have the option to cancel their order without penalty thanks to the 20 months of delays.

Blut2 wrote: »

The order book had taken a hammering even by July of this year. I'd be very curious to see where its at by the end of March 2021 after another 8 months of a fairly dead aviation market. A lot of airlines must be very thankful to have the option to cancel their order without penalty thanks to the 20 months of delays.

Well, I'd say the likes of Southwest and Ryanair will be keen to get the Max into the fleet as soon as possible, get the pilots and engineers used to the aircraft and then replace their older NG's....