January 1987

Record Cold Spell of 1987: How It All Started

It is well accepted that the most severe spell of weather in southern England since the 'Little Ice Age' occurred in the unlikely year of 1987 in an otherwise 'average' winter.

So what brought about such a severe spell and why did it end as quickly as it started.

The story begins in the first few days of January 1987, looking at the surface chart a cold spell seemed miles away as a strong High of 1032mb sat over Spain with the U.K. and Western Europe in a strong Westerly flow, temperatures through most of Europe were above normal, however in Scandinavia and Northwest Russia it was intensely cold.

The first change occurred quickly on the 2nd as the Iberian High shifted Westwards and low pressure transferred into the North Sea, a brief Northerly swept south across the U.K. but it was hardly cold.

By Sunday 4th High pressure was back over France with the U.K. in another mild flow, however by now the models thought something was up and on the Countryfile forecast on the 4th the forecast was for a short but very cold Northeasterly outbreak mid week as low pressure crossed Holland. The models however predicted that the Arctic outbreak would be short and that milder westerly winds would take over again by the weekend.

The short cold spell was in fact a non-event as rising pressure over Ireland killed off the Arctic Airflow and by the 7th High pressure was centered over the Irish Sea and the weather cool and quiet.

By the 7th the models still couldn’t decide which way things were going to go and the Met. Office remained silent about prospects for the weekend.

Things then moved very quickly, a deepening low moved south across Norway on the 8th and into Germany by the 9th and behind this low there was a massive rise in pressure over Scandinavia. At the same time a large pool of intensely cold air had swept out of Western Russia and was crossing Poland and East Germany, at last the models could see what was going to happen and early on the 9th the message went out: 'Very Cold later in the weekend'.

Meanwhile pressure continued to rise over Scandy reaching 1040mb over Finland by the 10th. Sub freezing air reached Eastern England on the afternoon of the 10th and this very cold air reached all areas by dawn on the 11th.

The Countryfile Forecast on the 11th was a 'classic' John Kettley saying "The only bright thing on this forecast is my tie!" He rightly predicted freezing temperatures and blizzards all week although even now the depth of the cold was being under estimated.

During the day temperatures kept on falling as snow showers became more intense, Monday 12th was probably one of the most remarkable days of the 20th Century as temperatures stayed below -5c throughout England and below -8c in several places in the home Counties.

The Weather Log for Jan. 1987 describes the 12th-14th as the coldest spell of weather in southern England since January 1740.

Over the next few days the U.K. was swept by blizzards and freezing temperatures as an upper cold pool crossed England.

The models showed no sign of a break in the weather and on the Countryfile Forecast on January 18th the forecast was for a very cold but drier week, however within 24 hours this forecast went wrong.

During the 19th a warm front crossed the U.K. cutting off the continental feed and high pressure then formed in the warm sector.

By the 20th temperatures of 4c-6c were recorded over most parts and a steady thaw began. The next 10 days were dull and sunless the severe spell becoming a distant memory.

The interesting thing about the cold spell is the poor performance of the forecast models even up to +72 hours, O.K. computers are better now but I still think they would struggle with a similar chain of events.