Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

Gonzo · 05-06-2020 1:25pm

most areas will see a few mm of rain between today and Sunday evening in the form of showers. Next week looks almost completely dry away from north-western and western coasts. This weekend's showers may be the only rainfall we will see over the next 10 days if the models are correct as it looks like the Azores high is going to set up shop once again over us next week and into next weekend. After that we may have to hope for thundery showers to see rain. Our usual Atlantic dominated pattern is nowhere to be seen in any of the models.

nacho libre · 05-06-2020 1:38pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Our usual Atlantic dominated pattern is nowhere to be seen in any of the models.

Simon Lee has a good explanation on twitter as to why exactly this is happening.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1268829506535665666

Gonzo · 05-06-2020 9:07pm

most areas will see more rain or showers over the next 24 hours, particularly the north and north-west where 10mm is possible by the morning, further south more like 3 to 8 mm. Could be more than this later tomorrow as more showers move into eastern and northern areas.

pauldry · 06-06-2020 12:06am

Very odd weather. The car registered 26c driving last week and today 7c. Big dip.

Rained lots today but still only 8mm since the rain returned. Likely 20mm by tomorrow evening then a bit more next week before it tapers off again.

Supercell · 06-06-2020 9:24am

Just watered my plant pots, the wind out there is drying everything out at a shocking rate. Think I'm going to google how to do a rain dance.

pauldry · 06-06-2020 3:36pm

Latest models are crazy

Rains back for rest of June.

How did that just happen?

At least no water shortages now but how did it flip from warm and sunny to winter like in a day. Never seen this before. Models usually gradually trend but this is like a switch from all of them. Summers over. Boo hoo.

Supercell · 06-06-2020 4:27pm

pauldry wrote: »

Latest models are crazy

Rains back for rest of June.

How did that just happen?

It worked!

afatbollix · 06-06-2020 7:05pm

Just had a thunderstorm roll through in West London, All the grass has died around here so very needed storm its put about 100L into my waterbutt

Oneiric 3 · 07-06-2020 7:49pm

Not much rain in the last week. Totals ranged from 13mm in Knock to zero, zilch, nada in Sherkin Island.

Running national mean 7 day % total over the last week. Rising, but still remaining well below normal.

uuɐǝɹᴉƎ ʇǝW ɯoɹɟ ɐʇɐp ll∀

Gonzo · 07-06-2020 8:42pm

rainfall will start increasing from this week. A band of mostly light rain and showers will cross the country Tuesday evening introducing colder air. On Wednesday a low should track down across the country from the north, currently it looks like northern and eastern areas most at risk. The track of this low could change meaning other areas of the country could be more affected or if it tracks more towards eastern UK, we could miss out on it. From Thursday we go into an easterly with more showers, mainly in eastern areas and from then on the south looks more at risk with showers and these possibly heavy.

I get the feeling much of this could be hit or miss, south-western areas probably escaping most of the rain this week.

Projected rainfall totals over the next week:

174-777UK.GIF?07-12

This probably isn't enough rain for the farmers but it's safe to say the dry spell is over. This should be enough rain to turn most gardens green again.

KingdomRushed · 08-06-2020 8:49am

Met Eireann website is showing >25mm for Dublin Friday evening into Saturday morning.

sryanbruen · 08-06-2020 9:51am

Hosepipe ban in force starting midnight tonight.

pauldry · 08-06-2020 11:00am

If BBC weather were to be believed that map above greatly overstates Sligos rain

According to their maps we will be lucky to see 5mm mostly from Tuesdays rain. Most showers miss us. Grounds like a rock. Just green coz of drizzles

The lake at Doorley Park you can walk to the pier that was under water in February

Gonzo · 08-06-2020 11:38am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Met Eireann website is showing >25mm for Dublin Friday evening into Saturday morning.

that would be very much dependent on the tracking of low pressures. There are lots of little areas of low pressure going to be floating around and hitting various parts of Ireland and the UK over the next 2 weeks, some places could get stuck under a low pressure for quite some time while others may miss them entirely.

Dublin likely to have a wet and cool day on Wednesday and into Thursday with that low possibly tracking north to south through the Irish sea and rotating as it does so. I'm not expecting alot of rain from it but there could be some moderate falls mixed in with showery bands of rain.

From Friday southern areas look at most risk from seeing heavy showers, but looking at how uncertain recent models have been showers could break out almost anywhere over the weekend.

nacho libre · 08-06-2020 12:01pm

pauldry wrote: »

If BBC weather were to be believed that map above greatly overstates Sligos rain

According to their maps we will be lucky to see 5mm mostly from Tuesdays rain. Most showers miss us. Grounds like a rock. Just green coz of drizzles

The lake at Doorley Park you can walk to the pier that was under water in February

Yes, if it pans out like the models are currently showing the west and north west will escape most of the rain this week. Some other places could see some thunderstorms and more organised thundery downpours at times.

Farmer2017 · 08-06-2020 12:39pm

Gonzo wrote: »

that would be very much dependent on the tracking of low pressures. There are lots of little areas of low pressure going to be floating around and hitting various parts of Ireland and the UK over the next 2 weeks, some places could get stuck under a low pressure for quite some time while others may miss them entirely.

Dublin likely to have a wet and cool day on Wednesday and into Thursday with that low possibly tracking north to south through the Irish sea and rotating as it does so. I'm not expecting alot of rain from it but there could be some moderate falls mixed in with showery bands of rain.

From Friday southern areas look at most risk from seeing heavy showers, but looking at how uncertain recent models have been showers could break out almost anywhere over the weekend.

How midland areas Westmeath/Offaly goin fair out

Oneiric 3 · 08-06-2020 1:23pm

Farmer2017 wrote: »

How midland areas Westmeath/Offaly goin fair out

A reasonable chance of some slight to moderate amounts before the end of the week. Prep forecast for Mullingar based on latest model run:

Gaoth Laidir · 09-06-2020 2:24pm

Met Éireann drought summary from yesterday.

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2020/06/DroughtSummaryJune20.pdf

Gonzo · 09-06-2020 4:06pm

The dry spell is more or less over now. Most places will see rain or showers from tomorrow over the next two weeks starting from tomorrow. GFS precipitation charts over the next 10 days are trending wetter, so this dry spell will soon be forgotten about.

240-777UK.GIF?09-6

It's looking increasingly unsettled too right up to the last week of June now with low pressures moving in off the north Atlantic right up to the end of FI. If this is correct we may finish up with a slightly cooler than average June and rainfall about average for the month to slightly above in places.

CirrusBusiness · 09-06-2020 5:40pm

There is hardly a blade of green grass left here in the south east. Hopefully we'll get a decent ground soaking between Friday and next Tuesday. Looks increasingly warm with heavy downpours feeding in from Biscay and France/UK. Hoping to see some sparks towards the weekend and into next week.

Neddyusa · 09-06-2020 10:11pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The dry spell is more or less over now. Most places will see rain or showers from tomorrow over the next two weeks starting from tomorrow. GFS precipitation charts over the next 10 days are trending wetter, so this dry spell will soon be forgotten about.

It's looking increasingly unsettled too right up to the last week of June now with low pressures moving in off the north Atlantic right up to the end of FI. If this is correct we may finish up with a slightly cooler than average June and rainfall about average for the month to slightly above in places.

Those charts look good for the East and South East, but not so good for drought relief in Midlands and West.

Oneiric 3 · 09-06-2020 10:56pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Those charts look good for the East and South East, but not so good for drought relief in Midlands and West.

Would the (very) few spells of rain we got over the last couple of months not have lessened any potential damaging effects of this long running dry spell in the west? Walking around town today, and I didn't seen much in the way of 'yellowing' of grass for instance, despite the lack rain recently, and the nearby countryside still looks as green as ever as well.

Danzy · 09-06-2020 10:59pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Would the (very) few spells of rain we got over the last couple of months not have lessened any potential damaging effects of this long running dry spell in the west? Walking around town today, and I didn't seen much in the way of 'yellowing' of grass for instance, despite the lack rain recently, and the nearby countryside still looks as green as ever as well.

Enough to keep grass growing but there is a lot of rain needed to bring it to the normal level.

Had an inch here over the last few days and ground is still kicking dust up rock hard and growth well below norm..but picking up.

Gaoth Laidir · 09-06-2020 11:10pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Would the (very) few spells of rain we got over the last couple of months not have lessened any potential damaging effects of this long running dry spell in the west? Walking around town today, and I didn't seen much in the way of 'yellowing' of grass for instance, despite the lack rain recently, and the nearby countryside still looks as green as ever as well.

The Dublin area and part of Mayo are the hardest hit when it comes to Absolute and Partial droughts. The rest of the country has not been as hardest hit and SMDs are running down as far as around half the level of the Dublin area.

http://climateservices.ie/2020_dryperiods.pdf
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs

Oneiric 3 · 09-06-2020 11:21pm

Funny how Claremorris is in the 'danger zone' there, yet it has recorded more rain than me this year, and even this month so far (which is not much in itself) Grass looks healthy enough around here (seen it in much worse state early last summer for example) but I am no farmer and no doubt a good drop of rain is needed to help with crops etc.

Danzy · 09-06-2020 11:38pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Funny how Claremorris is in the 'danger zone' there, yet it has recorded more rain than me this year, and even this month so far (which is not much in itself) Grass looks healthy enough around here (seen it in much worse state early last summer for example) but I am no farmer and no doubt a good drop of rain is needed to help with crops etc.

I've fields with a foot of grass, yet there is nothing in them, no volume, no thickness. Lot of silage crops were back 50% this year

Neddyusa · 10-06-2020 12:52am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Funny how Claremorris is in the 'danger zone' there, yet it has recorded more rain than me this year, and even this month so far (which is not much in itself) Grass looks healthy enough around here (seen it in much worse state early last summer for example) but I am no farmer and no doubt a good drop of rain is needed to help with crops etc.

The met eireann "drought" definitions are of limited use from an agricultural point of view as they are too crude and focussed too much on rainfall volume - factors like season, persistance of rain etc are not considered.
As one example - a meteorological drought in December is no problem for a farmer - however drought in May is very bad news.
The NUIM study posted by SRyan gave much more detailed analysis of the evapotranspiration conditions this spring.

You don't have to travel too far from Tuam now to see yellow grass.
Around here (Roscommon) on limestone land it's parched and mostly yellow. Anything on a south-facing incline is red.
In a normal summer we need about 30mm per week to maintain grass growth in June and July. And that's without starting June with an 80mm moisture deficit.
As Danzy says many silage crops yields are 50-60% of normal.

Some on this thread have asked why farmers cannot store rainwater. Many do, including myself. The reason grass can't be irrigated is cost. There is no farming system in Ireland capable of paying that diesel bill!
Potatoes, fruit and veg is different - they are a higher value crop and so irrigation can pay-off, up to a point.

Igotadose · 10-06-2020 8:23am

Worked outdoors in rain showers throughout the day, here on the Dingle Peninsula. Seems like the ground got soaked overnight.
Looks like it'll shower again today.

Wettest hose ban weather in history

DOCARCH · 10-06-2020 8:55am

1/3 into June now and still no appreciable rain in Dublin. Just 3.8mm so far this month in Dublin 16.

MJohnston · 10-06-2020 10:15am

DOCARCH wrote: »

1/3 into June now and still no appreciable rain in Dublin. Just 3.8mm so far this month in Dublin 16.

What really matters for Dublin though is what's happening over the mountains. I'd say today will change those totals quite a bit, but it's a shame there are no official stations up there!

Oneiric 3 · 10-06-2020 11:13am

Came across this map on the Met Eireann twitter page that shows 'drought stress levels' around the country at the moment:

Seems very hi res to the point were you can actually pick out individual fields.

Higher res image here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaE1LM2WoAAMMqj?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Mortelaro · 10-06-2020 11:31am

Downpour here

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1270664300005339136?s=19

nacho libre · 10-06-2020 11:52am

It's going to turn humid over the weekend. It looks like there may not be enough rain to satisfy farmers in the west and North west over the next seven days, whereas farmers in the east and south east maybe sick of rain come next weekend.

Neddyusa · 10-06-2020 2:23pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Came across this map on the Met Eireann twitter page that shows 'drought stress levels' around the country at the moment:

Seems very hi res to the point were you can actually pick out individual fields.

Higher res image here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaE1LM2WoAAMMqj?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

If you take that map at face value it looks as if most of the country was actually "wetter than normal" (green) in April/May.
Eg - look at Wicklow - almost all green.

We all know that pretty much nowhere in the country was wetter than normal in that time, so the researchers mis-interpreted the raw data.
What the satellite data showed was wet-lands and bogs appearing greener than normal due to being drier than normal (i.e. soils usually too waterlogged for growth now have vegetation growing on them as the ground dried and warmed).

Oneiric 3 · 10-06-2020 4:56pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

If you take that map at face value it looks as if most of the country was actually "wetter than normal" (green) in April/May.
Eg - look at Wicklow - almost all green.

We all know that pretty much nowhere in the country was wetter than normal in that time, so the researchers mis-interpreted the raw data.
What the satellite data showed was wet-lands and bogs appearing greener than normal due to being drier than normal (i.e. soils usually too waterlogged for growth now have vegetation growing on them as the ground dried and warmed).

Yes, there did seem to be some misleading information in the actual text below the image alright. No where in Ireland (or areas around the Met Éireann recording stations at least) this last spring came out wetter than normal, or anywhere near it.

Oneiric 3 · 10-06-2020 5:00pm

nacho libre wrote: »

It's going to turn humid over the weekend. It looks like there may not be enough rain to satisfy farmers in the west and North west over the next seven days, whereas farmers in the east and south east maybe sick of rain come next weekend.

One thing that thee and me can be sure of Nacho, is that while we may be going through a troubling for many dry spell at the moment, that when the rains do eventually come back to the west, they shall do in style.

Reckless Abandonment · 10-06-2020 5:31pm

MJohnston wrote: »

What really matters for Dublin though is what's happening over the mountains. I'd say today will change those totals quite a bit, but it's a shame there are no official stations up there!

My garden doesn't care whats happening in the mountains

Kutebride · 10-06-2020 7:18pm

How are we missing those showers all around us. Some colours of clouds all around us. Meath. I will surely jinx it as I step outside

Gonzo · 11-06-2020 12:43am

The farmers have been crying out for rain for the past few weeks, they are certainly going to be getting their wish over the next 10 days.

Close to 90mm of rain expected to fall over the next 7 to 10 days. I've a feeling we will see places exceeding 100mm easily.

240-777UK.GIF?11-18

The GFS, ECM and GEM are now all unsettled right up the end of their runs.

Neddyusa · 11-06-2020 12:50am

Gonzo wrote: »

The farmers have been crying out for rain for the past few weeks, they are certainly going to be getting their wish over the next 10 days.

Close to 90mm of rain expected to fall over the next 7 to 10 days. I've a feeling we will see places exceeding 100mm easily.

The GFS, ECM and GEM are now all unsettled right up the end of their runs.

A lot of talk of rain for the past 10 days but only very small amounts materialised - until today in the East.
Finally that's a chart that would bring drought relief for most farmers across the country. If its still there tomorrow I'll believe!

nacho libre · 11-06-2020 11:57am

Aside from Saturday, we probably won't see that much rain over the next few days. Until the weather starts coming from the Atlantic , the east and south east will be seeing most of the rain.

Supercell · 11-06-2020 11:59am

Still sitting on a grand total of 9mm rain so far this month with 9.4 last month and 22 and 26mm the previous two to that....very long way to get back to normal levels here.

Oneiric 3 · 11-06-2020 1:29pm

Met Eireann totals so far this month at their reporting stations.

NW wettest; S driest in general. Would be great if Met Eireann made monthly rainfall totals available from their 'WOW' stations as well to help give a more fuller picture, but can't see that happening anytime soon.

Oneiric 3 · 11-06-2020 1:36pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

A lot of talk of rain for the past 10 days but only very small amounts materialised - until today in the East.
Finally that's a chart that would bring drought relief for most farmers across the country. If its still there tomorrow I'll believe!

Did you get much from those showers yesterday NeddyUSA? Some barely detectable spits the odd time here that amounted to nothing.

SouthWesterly · 11-06-2020 2:29pm

Had 16mm this week. It's 17.9C outside and absolutely freezing... Why the anomaly?
999hpa
5.2m/s winds

Neddyusa · 11-06-2020 2:43pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Did you get much from those showers yesterday NeddyUSA? Some barely detectable spits the odd time here that amounted to nothing.

Got a whopping 1.8mm from those showers on what was originally forecast as the wettest day of the week. Strong Northerly breeze drying the ground quickly.

This must be what a "wet day" is like in the East when we get our normal Southwesterly weather??? :O

Sierra Oscar · 11-06-2020 3:08pm

The drought is well and truly over in Dublin anyway. Heaviest rain I have seen in weeks.

Supercell · 11-06-2020 3:11pm

Some beautiful rain falling now, decent clump of it in the Irish sea, great!

average_runner · 11-06-2020 3:34pm

Supercell wrote: »

Some beautiful rain falling now, decent clump of it in the Irish sea, great!

Prefer if it would go away

nacho libre · 11-06-2020 3:44pm

This time next week those gushing over the rain will be sick of it:D

Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

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