Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....
This is the 9th installment of this particular thread - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!
As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.
The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual white Christmas in my part of the country (1cm of falling snow I think?) was 2004.
The CFS is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. At present it shows the following:-
Day time lows
Subject to correction that's a very cold, settled day with a biting northerly wind and max temps of 2c to 4c or so. Uppers are of about -6c or -7 (typically you need -8c uppers for snow). There seems to be some shower activity in the NW in particular. So at the moment its all in all a very seasonal Christmas day with a definite chance of snow for some. Not a bad way to start the thread.....
Lest you think this is ridiculously premature (and I appreciate it probably is), a few websites have had a White Christmas page on the go for a while now. theweatheroutlook.co.uk are always the most enthusiastic and run a forecast from 1 September each year. They have updated theirs today actually and are saying (admittedly on a UK centric site):-
“Update 9 makes no change to the percentage chance of a White Christmas. The possibility of snow is considered higher than normal in both the north and south of the UK.
The primary reasons for this are:
1) The QBO is switching back to a westerly phase. A westerly phase is associated with an increased chance of milder winters in the UK.
2) We are close to a solar minimum.
3) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.
4) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter.
5) Medium range models are suggesting quite an unsettled pattern during early November. Cold conditions in the early part of winter are considered more likely if November is cool and wet.
Chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:25%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
The Computer says
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 01/11/2018 07:49:30”
Which is actually all very promising really.
I will update this every 5 days or so in November but will update it more frequently in December, especially if things are looking in any way promising. Usually by 10 December or so we know that our goose (or turkey?) is cooked however.
Until then, here's a seasonal pic to whet the appetite courtesy of theweatheroutlook.co.uk…