UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

SlowBlowin · 08-09-2019 12:38pm

I came out even following your advice of Felder, but I thought it was very close.

If the odds are the similar for Tony Furgesson/Kahbib then I will be doing the same again I think.

tinpib · 13-09-2019 4:56pm

Doing my usual value hunting for small stakes for interest.

Uriah Hall at 3.0, going from memory he looked like the old Uriah in his last fight which he won, although he is 35 now.

Michel Pereira has only 1 UFC fight, his opponent Connelly fighting in front of a home crowd has 0 but at best price 5.5 maybe he will have the night of his life.

In the main event I'm actually warming to Cerrone having thought him a bit of a toolwhacker for years. I think it's a coin toss between them, they will both stand and bang, land shots and eat shots, so I'll take the 2.62 on Cerrone on B365 though 2.7 is available.

SlowBlowin · 13-09-2019 9:49pm

I think early "Daddy" Cerone would cruise past Justin, but after his last fight I am not so sure. He reinvented himself and was gunning for the title, now hes back where he was (ish). At his age that might be enough for the shear toughness of Justin to prevail. As you say, I can't call it.

I do believe though it is going to be bloody, edge of the seat stuff.

Mellor · 14-09-2019 5:15am

Gaethje will rip the liver off him.
TKO in rd 2 or 3

shrapnel222 · 14-09-2019 12:49pm

Mellor wrote: »

Gaethje will rip the liver off him.
TKO in rd 2 or 3

Went for round 3. At 10/1

mailburner · 14-09-2019 1:12pm

If justin goes after cerrone the same way he want after barboza I think cerrone will do well to get out of round one

rnd one is 7/2, two is 5/1
coupled at 31/20 (888)

mailburner · 14-09-2019 10:10pm

anyone have any fancies for later?

here's what I'm thinking

firstly a value bet maybe?
carlos junior has 10 wins 8 by sub 2 by dec
hall has never been subbed although it seems he's been paired with
nothing but strikers so even at 5/1 I'm wondering if it's worth the risk to
take jnr on points

gonna go with gaethje to win in round one or two at 31/20 as my main bet but to have a saver on three at 8/1

very surprised that texeira is the underdog v krylov who's biggest scalp was osp, outside of that he hasn't beaten any top fighters
tex has only lost to the very best.
was thinking tex by sub but 2/1 is a miserable price on that, was thinking at least 3s

SlowBlowin · 14-09-2019 11:17pm

I just cant find a bet that has value that interests me..

I can't call the cowboy fight, I can both see Justin steam rolling Cowboy in the first, and also Cowboy taking him out with a head kick in the second or third. BUT I think its too early for Cowboy to be fighting following his beating, and the weigh in bothered me he seemed weird.

Can't call anything, I have lost the ability to bet, going to sit this one out.

mailburner · 14-09-2019 11:46pm

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I just cant find a bet that has value that interests me..

I can't call the cowboy fight, I can both see Justin steam rolling Cowboy in the first, and also Cowboy taking him out with a head kick in the second or third. BUT I think its too early for Cowboy to be fighting following his beating, and the weigh in bothered me he seemed weird.

Can't call anything, I have lost the ability to bet, going to sit this one out.

A small part of me thinks this too only if cowboy gets past the first though which is stopping me having a bigger bet on justin
If justin is aggressive early I think he'll get cowboy outa there in the first.

I think it's way too early for cowboy also possibly fighting the most dangerous guy left in the division which makes me more confident about justin getting it done early
It just a bad fight for cowboy no matter how you look at it
I really don't feel he can go to war with justin for two rounds and come out strong like dustin and eddie did later

SlowBlowin · 14-09-2019 11:55pm

I hope Cowboy comes in sweating else he will start too slow to survive Justin.

mailburner · 15-09-2019 1:05am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I hope Cowboy comes in sweating else he will start too slow to survive Justin.

ah you know what Justin will ko cowby, I just know he will

I just lost my balls on pettis v diaz and on moraes v cejudo so I'm just doubting myself but yeah justin will ko cowboy

I'll give up gambling on mma for the year otherwise and save myself a few quid

mailburner · 15-09-2019 3:50am

mailburner wrote: »

anyone have any fancies for later?

here's what I'm thinking

firstly a value bet maybe?
carlos junior has 10 wins 8 by sub 2 by dec
hall has never been subbed although it seems he's been paired with
nothing but strikers so even at 5/1 I'm wondering if it's worth the risk to
take jnr on points

gonna go with gaethje to win in round one or two at 31/20 as my main bet but to have a saver on three at 8/1

very surprised that texeira is the underdog v krylov who's biggest scalp was osp, outside of that he hasn't beaten any top fighters
tex has only lost to the very best.
was thinking tex by sub but 2/1 is a miserable price on that, was thinking at least 3s

Gaethje gets it done in the first

carlos loses a split

tex wins a split, no bet on tex sub as the price was too low

mailburner · 20-09-2019 11:20pm

Any thoughts on jeremy v yair?

I like the evens on jeremy or the 7/4 by ko and in betting terms the bookies
can't split these two at all.

been thinking jeremy for quite a while now.
He's fought the best and he's given much better fighters than yair problems.
I think yair can only win this on pts.

Yair pulled that last win out of his arse with a second to spare, got owned
by edgar where jeremy caused edgar problems and his previous two
wins were a split against caceres a ko of penn.
I look back now and wonder how he beat the likes of hooker though?

I've always been on the fence with yair and tomorrow I think he'll struggle.
He has the home fans on his side which might help a little but for me he's a fighter that won't go too much higher up the ladder.

tinpib · 21-09-2019 9:46am

Usual small stakes value bets tonight although not a whole pile out there.

I'm breaking my golden rule by betting on the UFC newcomer Camelossi vs the terrible UFC veteren Angela Hill. Add in your standard odds booster of female fights going to decision and she is at 2.62 on B365.

In 2 close fights the Mexican fighter is slight outsider so in front of a huge home crowd i think that could lift 1/both of them to victory.

Marco Polo Reyes at 2.0
Brandon Moreno 2.4

SlowBlowin · 21-09-2019 10:35pm

I have always admired Jeremy Stevens ever since he got the selfie with Connors mum, has to be one of the best UFC wind ups ever.

The card really does not excite me, with only the Stevens fight of interest, so its a straight bet at evens (21/20).

mailburner · 21-09-2019 11:56pm

I've taken moreno by sub at 6/1 for value, not sure why he's double the sub odds of his opponent who's making his ufc debut
he also has 10 sub wins v his opponents 7 and has subbed decent
fighters like smolka and ortiz

paul craig won earlier, sub was 10/3, fought much better guys than his opponent was was a point bigger and had more sub wins....couldn't pull
the trigger on craig myself though

SlowBlowin · 22-09-2019 12:11am

Was looking at the moreno by sub bet (after reading your post) but cant get better than 3/1 with my accounts...

mailburner · 22-09-2019 12:16am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Was looking at the moreno by sub bet (after reading your post) but cant get better than 3/1 with my accounts...

you sure it's not the other lad?

not seen anything less than 9/2 going by oddschecker

SlowBlowin · 22-09-2019 12:22am

My mistake, I was looking at sub/ko/tko odds.

SlowBlowin · 22-09-2019 2:42am

I was lucky I didn't find the odds on that sub bet.

mailburner · 22-09-2019 2:43am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I was lucky I didn't find the odds on that sub bet.

:D

Thought he had it sunk in there in the third, only time it
Looked like happening

Mellor · 22-09-2019 4:12am

Accidentally hit a bet on Jeremy Stephens last night. Tried to cancel and confirmed it. Oofff

mailburner · 28-09-2019 6:50pm

rountree 10/11 very impressive last time out, put on a clinic

smaller on roundtree pts 4/1

Whelo79 · 28-09-2019 7:16pm

Gunni is evens to get the win and 11/2 to win by sub. Those odds for the sub win seem very high.

mailburner · 28-09-2019 7:19pm

tempted by dalby at 13/10 but couldnt pull the trigger

was thinking the sub at 10s might be overpriced also

eagle eye · 28-09-2019 7:55pm

Did a small double on Gunni to win by sub at 13/2 and Hermansson to win in round 1 at 16/5.

Fromvert · 28-09-2019 8:15pm

Whelo79 wrote: »

Gunni is evens to get the win and 11/2 to win by sub. Those odds for the sub win seem very high.

Gilbert Burns is an extremely good grappler. Doubt either gets submitted unless they're taking a lot of damage.

mailburner · 28-09-2019 8:16pm

Osp sub was 9/2. Big in hindsight

I'd be surprised if gunni Gilbert doesn't go the distance
Think they'll cancel each other out

mailburner · 28-09-2019 8:40pm

mailburner wrote: »

rountree 10/11 very impressive last time out, put on a clinic

smaller on roundtree pts 4/1

yuk

tactics were spot on though

last throw of the dice

hermansson sub
gunni fight to go the distance
3.17/1 (skyb)

Whelo79 · 28-09-2019 8:46pm

Fromvert wrote: »

Gilbert Burns is an extremely good grappler. Doubt either gets submitted unless they're taking a lot of damage.

Yeah I talked myself or of putting the bet on. Burns is a serious grappler alright.

tinpib · 05-10-2019 9:59am

Looking for small stakes value only 2 stand out for me for tonight/tomorrow.

For a 6 footer Megan Anderson has been absolutely terrible from what I've seen, know nothing about her opponent but I see she lost a split to Sinead Kavanagh so probably no world beater herself.

Megan is ridiculously short at best price 1.2, and her to win inside the distance at 1.66 is equally as bad a bet. I think that there is still a bit hype train about her that she will demolish this lassie but I think taking advantage of the standard "female fight going the distance" oddsbooster and Megan just shading it over the distance is a great price of 3.5

I really like Whittaker but think that he might be a bit over rated, he has lost to some ordinary fighters earlier in his career and he also seems to have fitness/illness problems.

Don't see as many question marks over Adesanya and again I think him winning on points at 4.0 is a good bet.

Have also done the double at 14.0.

eagle eye · 05-10-2019 3:20pm

I did a multiple for tonight. I'm on Adesanya, Mullarkey and Iaquinta to win and Tuivola and Pitolo to win in the 1st round of their fights.

mailburner · 05-10-2019 3:59pm

can't split the two of them at all though did fancy a full fit whittaker when they were first due to meet

I do think that when adesanya almost finished gastelum he could actually
finish whittaker but there's no value in 9/4
maybe rnd 4 and 5 small singles 22s+28s for me

so far hooker pts at 7/4 expect this to stay standing and iaquinta has never
been knocked

d00mk1n · 05-10-2019 7:48pm

Tai by KO/TKO
Ragin Al by Points
Big Rob on Points

Small play @ 18.5/1

05-10-2019 7:51pm

two bets that i put on due to better odds than I thought they should be....
Hooker by Sub is 9.5. It's the only way Iaquinta has been finished and Hooker has said he wants to be aggressive
Also, Callan Potter by Sub at 10.00. 10 Subs on his record, Pitolo finished 4 times, twice by Sub. On debut, 1st time travelling. Fingers crossed!

Some bets that look more likely:
Tafa in Rd 1 or 2 is 2.25
Tuivasa in Rd 1 or 2 is 1.53

mailburner · 06-10-2019 1:11am

main bet for me is close to evens 0.98/1

tai tuivasa fight not to go the distance
al iaquinta fight to go the distance

hooker pts 7/4

cant decide on the main event so have gone for what I think
is the value bet...whittaker pts 5/1 pp

SlowBlowin · 06-10-2019 5:04am

Going for the clean sweep

SlowBlowin · 06-10-2019 5:10am

Bit worried that RW is a bit tired and battered, will that hand stay together ?

mailburner · 07-10-2019 12:06am

just watched it now myself.

When the fight was starting on bt with almost 20 left of schedule I knew
it wasn't going the distance
have to say about 2/3 mins in it didn't look great for robert and it hadn't a hope of going the distance although he did have some success

mailburner · 11-10-2019 10:48pm

only a matter of time before someone posts this so...

kron gracie to sub swanson 11/10

Gift?

swanson has a lot of sub losses albeit to better fighters but if kron gets
a hold of him it's probably over

Think waterson has a better chance than her odds suggest and this is her
big chance, 11/4 looks big enough to me and I hope she beats jj
maybe heart over head here but 11/2 pts if it does happen.

lastly, vick who i've backed against sucessfully v hooker and gaethje is not facing a monster this time
The odds of 6/4 are about right, niko price is good but hes no hooker or gaethje, vick is well capable of beating price imo
I think vick might get a pts win but I'm not sure if I'm confident enough to back him

mailburner · 12-10-2019 8:17pm

settled on gracie sub as my main bet 11/10
I really have a feeling I'll regret not doing my max bet on this

cub kron not to go the distance
elliot figer to go the distance
6/4
pp

vick pts 9/2
figer pts 23/10
singles/double

tiny bet on waterson pts 11/2

and the mad bet of

vick pts
figer pts
waterson pts
gracie by sub in round two 6/1
trebles/accum
all pp

eagle eye · 12-10-2019 9:13pm

I'm on Vick to win, Vettori by decision, Gracie by sub and Beast boy round 1 in a multiple.
I'm on Michele by decision in a single bet.

tinpib · 12-10-2019 10:26pm

Value/Hail Mary bets tonight are:

Joanna inside the distance at 4.33,
Alex Morono on pts 4.33,
Marlon Vera pts at 6.5,
Mackenzie Dern pts at 6.0

Mellor · 13-10-2019 12:20am

Trying to decide between max bet on Kron by sub. Or splitting it on rounds 1 and 2 only

mailburner · 13-10-2019 2:49am

Kinda regretting the Vick pts bet

Price looks pumped, gonna come out swinging
Probably won't go the distance

dulux99 · 26-10-2019 12:37pm

3pt double on Maia today and Diaz next week. Should Maia fail then I'm thinking going full 5pt on Diaz.

SlowBlowin · 26-10-2019 1:14pm

Trying to resist putting it all on DM !

Sitting there looking waiting to click the button.

mailburner · 26-10-2019 1:45pm

just a double of dariush and johnson at 6/5 plus a pts double at around 7/1
unsure of mov, could be a sub and a ko just as easily

think both are levels above their opponents

head says to back maia at that price also, bit surprised he's the underdog.
wondering if the 7/2 by sub is worth a look, it'll surely be that or askern pts
which isn't value at 13/10 imo

SlowBlowin · 26-10-2019 1:56pm

I clicked the button, its all on Maia....

dulux99 · 26-10-2019 1:57pm

I just can't see how Ben wins. Then again, I'm always fkin wrong so what do I know...

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING