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23-05-2020, 01:30   #1
she32
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House Prices 2021

Hi there,

Currently saving as a FIrst time buyer. What are your thoughts on the housing market over the next 12 months.

Due to the current global pandemic ... Do you think it will become a buyers market and house prices are likely to drop significantly?
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23-05-2020, 14:52   #2
Captain Bob
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short answer: 2008 house market crisis multiplied at least by 2
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23-05-2020, 15:20   #3
DubCount
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Short Answer - don't believe anyone who says they know - they don't because nobody knows.

The virus has some elements which should put pressure on prices to reduce. There will likely be some kind of recession with less spending money in the economy. Some immigrants may leave the country which will ease housing demand. An increase in the death rate amongst the order population (who tend to be property owners) may increase the supply of second hand homes.

However, some elements of the virus put opposite pressure on the market. We've had a shut down in building for several weeks which will curtail the supply of new houses in 2020. Social distancing and PPE requirements will slow down building and make building new houses more expenses. Interest rates will remain low for longer making mortgages more affordable. The central bank may ease lending restrictions which will fuel demand.

Don't try and second guess the market. A house purchase is along term investment and 20 years from now, nobody will be talking about this virus. Consider where you want to live and what kind of home you want.
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23-05-2020, 15:34   #4
Idbatterim
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As per a once post, youd have to expect price drops. But the size of them, who knows .
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23-05-2020, 15:39   #5
Alrigghtythen
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If the price crashes wont they all be bought up by vulture funds and people with cash decreasing the supply for the ordinary person? Building will be slower and less people will be movig. I dont think they'll be massive decreases but then anything could happen
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23-05-2020, 19:45   #6
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It’s never the wrong time to do the right thing - Donny Cassidy, 2008
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23-05-2020, 20:54   #7
Villa05
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KBC BANK and ESRI are predicting falls of 12%, possibility of - 20% over 18 months

Hard to see any scenario where price won't fall significantly

Local conditions will have a big factor also
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23-05-2020, 23:48   #8
Snow Garden
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The market is currently broken/stalled. Do yourself a favour and do nothing until early 2021.
You might get an idea on how this crisis will play out then and you certainly wont miss out on any golden opportunities in the meantime.
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24-05-2020, 12:10   #9
Captain Bob
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What is gonna happen with house market, will happen with everything else. People will just stop spending, no matter what. Who was about to buy something big, is gonna wait now. Not only here, but around the world. We are not even in buyer's market yet. We will be there once lockdown is lifted. And the only thing you gonna hear now "this is the very best time to buy a house!". Again, again and again.
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24-05-2020, 14:13   #10
DubCount
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
What is gonna happen with house market, will happen with everything else. People will just stop spending, no matter what. Who was about to buy something big, is gonna wait now. Not only here, but around the world. We are not even in buyer's market yet. We will be there once lockdown is lifted. And the only thing you gonna hear now "this is the very best time to buy a house!". Again, again and again.
There is a difference in relation to housing. People don't need holidays, new cars and most consumer goods. People need accommodation whether there is a recession or not. Maybe there will be an increase in the levels of social housing. Maybe demand for higher value property will fall. Some demand might be curtailed by emigrants leaving or increased death rate. However, we still need a certain level of property to house our population, and if supply stays below demand, prices may actually increase.

This may not be the best time to buy a property. Maybe it is. We're a long way from knowing when the market reaches the bottom or how big the dip will be, or how quick it will recover.
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24-05-2020, 14:53   #11
Villa05
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Quote:
Originally Posted by she32
Currently saving as a FIrst time buyer. What are your thoughts on the housing market over the next 12 months.

Start your research now
Set up email alerts from daft with what falls close to your affordability range
Log these on an excel sheet with the following fields.
Important: log all of the properties
Address
Agent
No of beds
Condition
Aspect
Broadband availability
Ber score
Asking price
Sold price (fill from property price reg)
Time on the market

and any other aspect of the property that is important to you. This will arm you with indepth local knowledge of the market you wish to buy in. Many agents can be spoofers. This research will enable you to determine which agents are being honest with you and which are economical with the truth

Price trends will become apparent quickly. You can see what purchasers are prepared to pay more for. This will also show properties may have less demand because they don't have an attribute that may not be all that important to you.

Where a market has stalled or very low volume sales you will see when it has resumed quiet quickly, as properties you see as good value others will see the same thing and they will be the first to sell. This may be the time for you to make your move

This research will take you maybe 15 minutes a week. For you, it could save you a small fortune
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24-05-2020, 15:08   #12
TheSheriff
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Villa05 View Post
Start your research now
Set up email alerts from daft with what falls close to your affordability range
Log these on an excel sheet with the following fields.
Important: log all of the properties
Address
Agent
No of beds
Condition
Aspect
Broadband availability
Ber score
Asking price
Sold price (fill from property price reg)
Time on the market

and any other aspect of the property that is important to you. This will arm you with indepth local knowledge of the market you wish to buy in. Many agents can be spoofers. This research will enable you to determine which agents are being honest with you and which are economical with the truth

Price trends will become apparent quickly. You can see what purchasers are prepared to pay more for. This will also show properties may have less demand because they don't have an attribute that may not be all that important to you.

Where a market has stalled or very low volume sales you will see when it has resumed quiet quickly, as properties you see as good value others will see the same thing and they will be the first to sell. This may be the time for you to make your move

This research will take you maybe 15 minutes a week. For you, it could save you a small fortune
Most likely the best advice on this forum.
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24-05-2020, 19:21   #13
bdmc5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Villa05 View Post
KBC BANK and ESRI are predicting falls of 12%, possibility of - 20% over 18 months

Hard to see any scenario where price won't fall significantly

Local conditions will have a big factor also
The same article you mentioned forecast prices to increase by 8 percent in 2021 and 5 percent 2022 so you could buy now actually have a house worth 1 percent more than today based on that article.

Given the strong demand for housing pre-COVID-19 and the continued pent-up of demand as people understandably hold off buying, The reduction in quality housing availability sellers Take houses off the market than accept 20% below asking in such a short period of time and so on. Loads of scenarios that may prevent house prices dropping significantly.

OP nothing wrong with proceeding buying a home in 2020 at a price that you can afford and possibly have negotiated a small discount the hedge your bets against any house price drop. Good luck either way
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24-05-2020, 19:30   #14
Eric Cartman
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I think the HSE looking for their pound of flesh from the recently deceased people in the covid riddled care homes are going to put a fair amount of housing stock back on the market. Plus even the elderly who were in their own homes, You'll have many very settled areas of Dublin with a lot more properties for sale or their kids paying the tax man and keeping them as a rental.

you'll have many foreign workers who choose not to return to Dublin for a long time and some people pursuing more options to work from home who, while previously searching for Dublin housing, will now set their sights out further , knowing they'll only be commuting 1-2 days a week instead of a full 5.

I think a lot of apartments will enter the market as softening prices mean those who were in dual income stable tech jobs are able to leap from apartment living in south Dublin to housing in the suburbs.
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24-05-2020, 21:19   #15
Mic 1972
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If inflation kicks in and supply remains low we may even end up with further house price increases, the next 12 month are unpredictable at this point. I've been monitoring the market very closely since January and i have not seen any sign of change
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