House Prices 2021

sanfranbest · 27-05-2020 8:46pm

Lets see how much this property drops in price.

Asking price in 2012 was 365K

Now in 2020 its 695k

94 Harold's Cross Cottages
Harold's Cross, Dublin 6, D06 Y5A0, Ireland

addaword · 27-05-2020 11:27pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

I wasn't exactly following things in 07; did we have a large cohort of people who did not lose their jobs? And were in fact seeing increases in the money in their pockets due to the crash?

In '07 some people done well, for example some people who sold building sites or land for development before the crash.

In 08, 09, 10, not everyone in the hotel industry, aviation, pubs, restaurants, catering etc was out of work or struggling...

sanfranbest wrote: »

Lets see how much this property drops in price.

Asking price in 2012 was 365K

Now in 2020 its 695k

94 Harold's Cross Cottages
Harold's Cross, Dublin 6, D06 Y5A0, Ireland

A 50% drop would see it back to 347,500. That would be about right, all things going ok. The drop could be worse than that though, that is the worry.

Hubertj · 27-05-2020 11:37pm

addaword wrote: »

In '07 some people done well, for example some people who sold building sites or land for development before the crash.

In 08, 09, 10, not everyone in the hotel industry, aviation, pubs, restaurants, catering etc was out of work or struggling...

A 50% drop would see it back to 347,500. That would be about right, all things going ok. The drop could be worse than that though, that is the worry.

How do you reach your valuation on the harolds cross property? I think the asking price is very high but 50% drop sounds a lot.

addaword · 28-05-2020 12:32am

Hubertj wrote: »

How do you reach your valuation on the harolds cross property? I think the asking price is very high but 50% drop sounds a lot.

Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

bdmc5 · 28-05-2020 1:56am

addaword wrote: »

Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

Hard to know where to start with this post. Dramatic oversupply of poor quality housing along the reckless lending and speculation in property drove the last recession. This time there is strong demand for housing with a chronic lack of supply and mortgage caps in place

The tourism and hospitality temporarily closed for a few months doesn’t compare With 2007 but there will be undoubtedly be a rough year ahead for the economy but Hospitality and tourism be opening again for summer albeit with covid regulations in place so many could find themselves in employment again.

There still tens of thousands of people’s working in multinationals and civil service working from home financially unimpacted so talk of 50 percent to 80 percent declines is unfounded scaremongering In the extreme.

Ninap · 28-05-2020 3:03am

addaword wrote: »

Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

yeah, you can 'pity young people buying now', but what exactly do you think they should do instead? Pay more in rent? I bought a place in 2004 and remortgaged in 2007 to buy another place. You would think, having bought at the top of the market, that I would be badly burnt. But i got a tracker in 2007, so a 500k mortgage costs less than 2k a month, with the interest now amounting to about 300 a month. The rent on the property would be well in excess of the mortgage, and of course miles ahead of the actual interest charge. The rest of the payment is paying off the loan and therefore buying the property. So, for me, buying now, if you can get a mortgage at a reasonable rate, would still make a lot of sense.

Hubertj · 28-05-2020 6:21am

addaword wrote: »

Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

Thanks for the insight. I’m sorry things didn’t work out for you last time.

Darc19 · 28-05-2020 6:27am

TheSheriff wrote: »

Again, I tend to agree.

We are very lucky as a couple; neither are affected by this.

My GF works in tech and business is BOOMING. Sales are up, targets have been hit, bonuses are bigger than any month this year.
.

Little bit of advice.

If you are doing well, keep quiet.

There are hundreds of thousands that do not know if they will have a job to go back to, so someone crowing that they are in the money due to this pandemic is not what exactly what people want to hear.

TheSheriff · 28-05-2020 8:09am

Darc19 wrote: »

Little bit of advice.

If you are doing well, keep quiet.

There are hundreds of thousands that do not know if they will have a job to go back to, so someone crowing that they are in the money due to this pandemic is not what exactly what people want to hear.

Here's some advice in return, if you don't want to hear about reality maybe don't come on an internet forum ?

This is a thread on property prices.

I am all for a drop and it's terrible so many are out of work, but it's ignoring reality to not account for and discuss the fact that there are also hundreds of thousands on full wage and the sector which arguably contributed to high costs / rents in Dublin is booming with no sign of slowdown.

Anyone in this unaffected group I know is now on the property bandwagon. Some quite young people in my girlfriend's place (who could be 22-25 and earn far more than I did at that age) are now also talking about "grabbing a cheap apartment".....asking her what broker she went to etc.

Every dog on the street is now talking about house prices falling. It's self fulfilling and almost guaranteed, but when the buying restarts I fear it may shoot back up to current levels with all this renewed interest.

marieholmfan · 28-05-2020 9:38am

falling prices make it very very hard to get a mortgage.

bdmc5 · 28-05-2020 11:10am

Snow Garden wrote: »

Equally reckless? Seriously? How can you write that with a straight face.

People talking down the house prices at the start of one of the biggest economic shocks in the history of the state are equally reckless to people saying house prices will stay the same or go up. Wow.

Yes exactly you got it in one, equally reckless
. Anyone on here advising anyone to buy because house prices will go up or don't buy because prices will go down and you'll get it cheaper in a year are advising from a position of total ignorance as they don't know what will happen to house prices or supply.

Loads of posters like you love to throw out phrases like we are going into 'biggest shocks in history' but we have no idea yet the wider ranging implications of the last 3 month on housing. Don't get so upset because t i don't agree with you.

When I see posters coming on here genuinely looking for advice I see alot of disingenuous advice from people on both sides of fence. Let me guess you are not a homeowner ya?

Snow Garden · 28-05-2020 11:18am

bdmc5 wrote: »

Yes exactly you got it in one, equally reckless
. Anyone on here advising anyone to buy because house prices will go up or don't buy because prices will go down and you'll get it cheaper in a year are advising from a position of total ignorance as they don't know what will happen to house prices or supply.

Loads of posters like you love to throw out phrases like we are going into 'biggest shocks in history' but we have no idea yet the wider ranging implications of the last 3 month on housing. Don't get so upset because t i don't agree with you.

When I see posters coming on here genuinely looking for advice I see alot of disingenuous advice from people on both sides of fence. Let me guess you are not a homeowner ya?

Ah stop will you. This is unprecedented. How can you not see or acknowledge that?

Yes it's only Boards posters "throwing out phrases"....oh look, this morning's headline on RTE.ie

The Economic and Social Research Institute has described the Covid-19 outbreak as a major shock to economic life which is unprecedented in modern times.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0528/1143073-esri-stimulus-call/

In its latest quarterly economic commentary for summer 2020, the ESRI warns that in a best to middle case situation the economy risks contracting by 9-12% and unemployment reaching between 10-17% .

In a worst case situation, where a second surge of the virus emerges, the economy will contract by up to 17% and unemployment levels will hit 20% over a consistent period of time.

Equally reckless

To answer your snide question: I have been a home owner since 2000. In fact I did a self build in the countryside. I have no intentions of selling or buying.
I just do not want to see anyone jumping straight into negative equity as the economy contracts significantly.

Villa05 · 28-05-2020 11:40am

Ray Palmer wrote:

Again this is pretty misleading. I dislike how REIT have been allowed tax breaks but their effect is limited. Fine if you want prices lower but there is real causes for high prices without exaggerating minor contributing factors

All effects are limited, when you add them up, they become substantial.
The vast majority of these effects are Government controlled either directly or indirectly

Ray Palmer wrote:

Many of the wealthiest countries have historical reason for their abilities such as the death of huge parts of their population, destruction of masses of housing stock, huge reparation payments etc... We literally can't do what they do. They also protect landlords in these counties.

The Netherlands is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, they in some cases have to reclaim/make land to build.

Over a third of housing is social (not that they call it that) and 70% of rentals are controlled by housing associations and the beauty is that it is all self financing.

Holland has some of the most expensive cities in the world, yet they can protect key workers who make those cities great places from high accommodation costs.
Austria and some of the scandanavian countries operate similar models

Ray Palmer wrote:

When you put all the risk on to developers and landlords you have to pay a premium for what they supply. Want cheaper rents and mortgage then you have to allow easier evictions and ways to recover non payment.

I don't dispute that but would argue that we can't afford that premium when the alternative is half the cost, and potentially revenue positive.
Agreed on evictions and recovering non payment. The right to housing has to be balanced with the need to play ball for a system to work.
Non payment and consistent anti social behaviour must effect your dis/qualification for subsidised housing

Glory83 · 28-05-2020 12:35pm

I live in Cork and I notice that sellers are starting to pull their properties of the market due to the lack of interest in their asking prices. They have rented them again when I checked with EA.
I am afraid that will be the scenario moving forward. If the properties' prices drop significantly due to Covid-19, the supply will also drop because homeowners will not sell unless they are absolutely forced to. The decreased supply of properties will eventually lead to bidding wars and drive the prices up again.

What do you think.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 28-05-2020 12:36pm

Glory83 wrote: »

I live in Cork and I notice that sellers are starting to pull their properties of the market due to the lack of interest in their asking prices. They have rented them again when I checked with EA.
I am afraid that will be the scenario moving forward. If the properties' prices drop significantly due to Covid-19, the supply will also drop because homeowners will not sell unless they are absolutely forced to. The decreased supply of properties will eventually lead to bidding wars and drive the prices up again.

What do you think.

Good news for rentals, the price should start coming down there so

PommieBast · 28-05-2020 3:48pm

Glory83 wrote: »

What do you think.

In a falling market the good stock always disappears.

OwlsZat · 28-05-2020 3:51pm

Ninap wrote: »

yeah, you can 'pity young people buying now', but what exactly do you think they should do instead? Pay more in rent?

Rents are dropping faster than. A friend just moved into a luxury rental in Gran Canal where they have dropped the rent by 50% for 3 months initially. I suspect that will end and they will be delighted to extend.

DubCount · 28-05-2020 4:17pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Rents are dropping faster than. A friend just moved into a luxury rental in Gran Canal where they have dropped the rent by 50% for 3 months initially. I suspect that will end and they will be delighted to extend.

The rental market is even more uncertain than the property sale market. Lots of short term rentals available with students not in college, workers working from home, and short term lets through Airbnb etc looking for short term deals until tourism returns. The rental market of 6 months time could be very different, especially as unemployment fuels more HAP approved tenants looking for rentals. Besides, luxury rentals in Grand Canal Docks is hardly a typical rental.

Darc19 · 28-05-2020 4:40pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Here's some advice in return, if you don't want to hear about reality maybe don't come on an internet forum ?

This is a thread on property prices.
.

Exactly. It's about how people feel property prices will go. Just saying many people are having a hard time, so be careful about saying everything is very rosy in your garden.

As for prices, I'd agree with you. There will be a short term drop and probably followed by a small rise and price becoming realistic

Main reason is that the stock market is back near Nov levels and whilst no one wants job losses, the vast majority of the losses will be in the lower, casual employment sector where many people are not looking at house buying anyway.

And the three biggest primary employment sectors here are pharma, tech and food. Three areas that have seen little or no affect.

polaco · 28-05-2020 4:41pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Rents are dropping faster than. A friend just moved into a luxury rental in Gran Canal where they have dropped the rent by 50% for 3 months initially. I suspect that will end and they will be delighted to extend.

Did he get discount on that 10k penthouse??:D:D

OwlsZat · 28-05-2020 7:02pm

DubCount wrote: »

The rental market is even more uncertain than the property sale market. Lots of short term rentals available with students not in college, workers working from home, and short term lets through Airbnb etc looking for short term deals until tourism returns. The rental market of 6 months time could be very different, especially as unemployment fuels more HAP approved tenants looking for rentals. Besides, luxury rentals in Grand Canal Docks is hardly a typical rental.

I didnt say it was a typical rental. It was dropped from 3k a month to 1600 for a 2 bed. The data shows the volume of rental property is stockpiling at a rate of knots. I'd suggest the rental sector is a leading indicator. The fact that the top of the market is falling in price fastest is interesting point too.

polaco · 28-05-2020 10:52pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

I didnt say it was a typical rental. It was dropped from 3k a month to 1600 for a 2 bed. The data shows the volume of rental property is stockpiling at a rate of knots. I'd suggest the rental sector is a leading indicator. The fact that the top of the market is falling in price fastest is interesting point too.

I checked all apartments in this area and none of them are cost 1600.
I have been checking daft I have applied for few places but prices still strong is very hard to find something below 1900 mark.
Looks to me like people still willing to pay 2k for apartments only today 15 apartments from my list (saved search) are gone.

OwlsZat · 29-05-2020 8:44am

polaco wrote: »

I checked all apartments in this area and none of them are cost 1600.
I have been checking daft I have applied for few places but prices still strong is very hard to find something below 1900 mark.
Looks to me like people still willing to pay 2k for apartments only today 15 apartments from my list (saved search) are gone.

I PMd you the details. Obviously there is no guarantee it's still available...

jim-mcdee · 29-05-2020 11:48am

Idbatterim wrote: »

Large amounts who would have been in a position to buy , havent lost their jobs and are currently likely to be able to save substantially more than pre virus.

Haven't lost their jobs "yet" is what you mean

luckycat007 · 27-06-2020 2:22pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Excellent advice above, we started something similar several months back and it was very helpful (although not as detailed as above).

We are signing hopefully early next week. Its quite nerve racking to be honest! We are sale agreed at well below asking (>50k), which should cushion the drop (if there is one?), and below what other properties have gone for recently in the area...... but I still have a niggling feeling there might be more to cut off it!

Girlfriend happy to push ahead, we've been looking for nearly a year and the mortgage will be less than our current rent and ~20% combined income. All very affordable currently.

I'll hopefully be in the new house in a few weeks, sipping on a beer in my garden and I can forget about this forum and the impending doom keeping me up at night

Sheriff what % off asking does your 50K represent?

antimatterx · 27-06-2020 3:40pm

I actually feel hopeless. I only have 20K saved, and it feels like its taking forever to save. FML.

Mic 1972 · 27-06-2020 3:44pm

It's now almost July and none of the apocalyptic predictions about price collapse have materialized. We are moving into the second half of the year when prices tend to slow down a bit regardless. I'm expecting to see a seasonal price decrease in Q4 just because it happens regularly.
Jobs were lost months ago, lock down is nearly over, business are gong to reopen. Whatever was expected to happen didn't have the magnitude than most - including me - expected
I'm planning to buy around Q4 because it's normally more convenient, I have zero expectations about the effect of Covid and economic crise on the house market

Widdensushi · 27-06-2020 4:42pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

It's now almost July and none of the apocalyptic predictions about price collapse have materialized. We are moving into the second half of the year when prices tend to slow down a bit regardless. I'm expecting to see a seasonal price decrease in Q4 just because it happens regularly.
Jobs were lost months ago, lock down is nearly over, business are gong to reopen. Whatever was expected to happen didn't have the magnitude than most - including me - expected
I'm planning to buy around Q4 because it's normally more convenient, I have zero expectations about the effect of Covid and economic crise on the house market

There's a major recession going to happen, budget deficit is massive so there will be expenditure cuts and taxes will increase. There are businesses closed for good in every village and town in the country, the price of houses is currently the highest it will be for a decade.

Pkiernan · 27-06-2020 4:46pm

The population is increasing.

Building of new houses is at a standstill.

Tell me why house prices (not rent) will fall?

antimatterx · 27-06-2020 4:51pm

Pkiernan wrote: »

The population is increasing.

Building of new houses is at a standstill.

Tell me why house prices (not rent) will fall?

People have less money, and less access to credit than they did 3 months ago.

If any who had mortgage approval was put on the wage subsidy scheme, approval was withdrawn. That means less people buying houses right now, and won't be for the next year or so.

Mic 1972 · 27-06-2020 5:00pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

There's a major recession going to happen, budget deficit is massive so there will be expenditure cuts and taxes will increase. There are businesses closed for good in every village and town in the country, the price of houses is currently the highest it will be for a decade.

All of that has been around for months now and still no signs of trend changes. I have a feeling that most people have cash and are entering the market while other are exiting due to lack of credit from banks. As a result the market will stay unchanged

WeeCuppaCha · 27-06-2020 6:32pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

All of that has been around for months now and still no signs of trend changes. I have a feeling that most people have cash and are entering the market while other are exiting due to lack of credit from banks. As a result the market will stay unchanged

I think that the market is being maintained at current/pre-Covid levels (with even higher asking prices in some instances) by Mortgage approvals which were granted pre lockdown. Not to mention EAs chancing their arms and expecting offers below asking.

People are, I feel, trying to get purchases over the line before offers expire. Particularly if they feel their future earnings are in jeopardy. Those approvals will be running out in August at the latest. Then the market should be more realistic.

Or I could be totally wrong and nothing will change! I just don’t logically see how that can be though. Exemptions are for the most part gone. People are still in receipt of the wage subsidy, making them unable to get mortgage approval. And, of course, true unemployment levels have yet to become apparent.

I understand your frustration, I’m in a similar situation. However, patience in needed now. It’s very, very early days.

Walnut Salad · 27-06-2020 11:33pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

It's now almost July and none of the apocalyptic predictions about price collapse have materialized. We are moving into the second half of the year when prices tend to slow down a bit regardless. I'm expecting to see a seasonal price decrease in Q4 just because it happens regularly.
Jobs were lost months ago, lock down is nearly over, business are gong to reopen. Whatever was expected to happen didn't have the magnitude than most - including me - expected
I'm planning to buy around Q4 because it's normally more convenient, I have zero expectations about the effect of Covid and economic crise on the house market

I am not sure if you are serious but it much too early to predict the economic impact of Covid-19. There will always be a lag from the start of the shock and the government is pumping serious cash into the economy. If you do buy a house in Q4, the odds are that it will be worth a lot less by Q4 the following year. We could be in the middle of a 2nd wave in Q4 but fire ahead if you are feeling lucky.

bdmc5 · 28-06-2020 1:30am

Walnut Salad wrote: »

I am not sure if you are serious but it much too early to predict the economic impact of Covid-19. There will always be a lag from the start of the shock and the government is pumping serious cash into the economy. If you do buy a house in Q4, the odds are that it will be worth a lot less by Q4 the following year. We could be in the middle of a 2nd wave in Q4 but fire ahead if you are feeling lucky.

I know you are basing your guess around off the uncertainty of Covid but you underestimate the demand for quality housing right now. Week by week the Reality is the uncertainty is clearing and thousands are going back to work as we accelerate through easing of restrictions.

It’s strange people seem to leave out the other side of the coin there are literally hundreds of thousands of people not financially impacted by covd19. People working in a large Irish companies and multinationals companies are working from home continuing to save money.

The people saying house prices will drop clearly are clearly not in the market now as if they were they would see how packed house viewings are and competitive bidding is here in the Cork market. There’s also many greed fuelled vested interest in this country keeping prices high (Developers , Banks etc ) so I think people praying for even minor price drops will be very disappointed. There is pent up demand and I think any price dips will reflect a very small pool of motivated sellers.

FernandoTorres · 28-06-2020 10:07am

There's some seriously naive posts on here. I've no issue with anyone who thinks that prices won't fall significantly but you have to have some reasoning behind it backed up with facts.

There's a lot of posts saying that there hasn't been any affect yet and people who've lost their jobs are in hospitality etc who won't be buying houses anyway. I think that shows complete ignorance of the situation. The economy is on life support at the moment and only when that is withdrawn will we see the full effect. Businesses don't just throw in the towel at the first sign of trouble, they'll go on as long as they can but ultimately there is going to be mass corporate insolvencies. This isn't my opinion, it's backed up by the data and predictions from the likes of the IMF, ESRI, FED etc.

The companies that go to the wall will not just be hotels and restaurants. There are big multinational companies too who have unsustainable debts and will have to cut down massively over the next few years which will impact Irish jobs in all sectors. Already in Australia last week Qantas announced it's cutting 20% of its workforce, Deloitte have laid off 700 with hundreds more gone in the rest of the Big 4 and these are just the first movers. No reason to think the same won't happen in Ireland.

In terms of property, by all means buy if you have the money and know you want to live there for the long-term but I'd be very cautious around how much debt you take on.

Marius34 · 28-06-2020 10:33am

FernandoTorres wrote: »

There's some seriously naive posts on here. I've no issue with anyone who thinks that prices won't fall significantly but you have to have some reasoning behind it backed up with facts.

There's a lot of posts saying that there hasn't been any affect yet and people who've lost their jobs are in hospitality etc who won't be buying houses anyway. I think that shows complete ignorance of the situation. The economy is on life support at the moment and only when that is withdrawn will we see the full effect. Businesses don't just throw in the towel at the first sign of trouble, they'll go on as long as they can but ultimately there is going to be mass corporate insolvencies. This isn't my opinion, it's backed up by the data and predictions from the likes of the IMF, ESRI, FED etc.

The companies that go to the wall will not just be hotels and restaurants. There are big multinational companies too who have unsustainable debts and will have to cut down massively over the next few years which will impact Irish jobs in all sectors. Already in Australia last week Qantas announced it's cutting 20% of its workforce, Deloitte have laid off 700 with hundreds more gone in the rest of the Big 4 and these are just the first movers. No reason to think the same won't happen in Ireland.

In terms of property, by all means buy if you have the money and know you want to live there for the long-term but I'd be very cautious around how much debt you take on.

There are lots fact based reasoning behind why Property Prices this time won't fall significantly. There was provided many around Supply/Demand. You need to look from both sides, instead picking only the ones that cause price decrease.
More than that there are no any base case scenario predictions showing significant fall in Irish Property price.

combat14 · 28-06-2020 10:57am

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/no-free-lunch-on-coronavirus-cash-payments-1.4289771?mode=amp

thousands owed back to the taxman for covid 19 to be paid back in 2021 and 2020 ..

the pain has still to be felt yet

Graham · 28-06-2020 11:01am

combat14 wrote: »

thousands owed back to the taxman for covid 19 to be paid back in 2021 and 2020 ..

Not quite what the article says

Revenue is still working out how to deal with it. Bills may be spread over the whole of 2021 and possibly also 2022.

Villa05 · 28-06-2020 11:08am

Marius34 wrote:

There are lots fact based reasoning behind why Property Prices this time won't fall significantly.

In using the phrase "this time*, would you be of the opinion that current prices and rents are unsustainable.

Supply demand imbalance can be resolved easily if the political will was there

The most green policy the country could have is to have adequate housing close to places of work. This would allow workers to easily make their way to work via green methods. Where this proves too expensive, we could bring the workplace closer to where people live through the provision of work hubs in regional centres

There are multiple solutions to supply demand imbalance. I look forward to pressing the green party should we continue with more of the same policies that have exacerbated the problem over the last 10 years

Steven81 · 28-06-2020 11:11am

Due to most companies not having to pay their employees by claiming the TWSS the impact won’t be felt immediately but week by week I am hearing of places letting people go.

There will certainly be a lot less money going around this time next year and a high unemployment rate but with regards to house prices I don’t think they will change too much, there are very few houses for sale and nothing being built, looking at numbers who are renting some will definitely be looking to buy if possible as it would be probably be cheaper than current rent.

combat14 · 28-06-2020 11:11am

Graham wrote: »

Not quite what the article says

the vast majority of these one million-plus people will owe the Revenue Commissioners money for the cash bailout they got.

Balancing statements carrying the bad news will drop through letter boxes across the State. And the sums will be significant – thousands of euro in many cases.

Hubertj · 28-06-2020 11:56am

combat14 wrote: »

the vast majority of these one million-plus people will owe the Revenue Commissioners money for the cash bailout they got.

Balancing statements carrying the bad news will drop through letter boxes across the State. And the sums will be significant – thousands of euro in many cases.

So what’s your point? Personal responsibility to know this when they receive the subsidy. Do people think its free money?

Hubertj · 28-06-2020 11:58am

Villa05 wrote: »

In using the phrase "this time*, would you be of the opinion that current prices and rents are unsustainable.

Supply demand imbalance can be resolved easily if the political will was there

The most green policy the country could have is to have adequate housing close to places of work. This would allow workers to easily make their way to work via green methods. Where this proves too expensive, we could bring the workplace closer to where people live through the provision of work hubs in regional centres

There are multiple solutions to supply demand imbalance. I look forward to pressing the green party should we continue with more of the same policies that have exacerbated the problem over the last 10 years

How do you deal with the NIMBYs objecting to every single development deemed to be too “dense”? Even the clown Obrion objects. Irish people love to whine and moan and complain but at the same time play no part in the solutions. We are world class at it.

Marius34 · 28-06-2020 2:00pm

Villa05 wrote: »

In using the phrase "this time*, would you be of the opinion that current prices and rents are unsustainable.

Supply demand imbalance can be resolved easily if the political will was there

The most green policy the country could have is to have adequate housing close to places of work. This would allow workers to easily make their way to work via green methods. Where this proves too expensive, we could bring the workplace closer to where people live through the provision of work hubs in regional centres

There are multiple solutions to supply demand imbalance. I look forward to pressing the green party should we continue with more of the same policies that have exacerbated the problem over the last 10 years

Rents looks very high in Ireland, which shows a lack of living space, supply, competition. But if there are no big emigration, and increase in residential construction, in my opinion the price might stay like this for long.

Regarding the politics, it's just politics that i'm not in position to speculate what will happen. I believe there is more populism, than real solutions on the housing. The only real solutions for housing is something that is based for long term, which would lead to increase in construction supplies.

PommieBast · 28-06-2020 7:24pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Regarding the politics, it's just politics that i'm not in position to speculate what will happen. I believe there is more populism, than real solutions on the housing. The only real solutions for housing is something that is based for long term, which would lead to increase in construction supplies.

Any policy that properly addresses the housing problem will inevitably cause the price of existing stock to fall, so there will be political pressure against these policies. Remember seeing a 2014 video of Michael Noonan talking about getting house prices back up..

Villa05 · 28-06-2020 8:29pm

PommieBast wrote:

Any policy that properly addresses the housing problem will inevitably cause the price of existing stock to fall, so there will be political pressure against these policies. Remember seeing a 2014 video of Michael Noonan talking about getting house prices back up..

Its like a drug you know it will hurt you and especially your children, but you just want more and more

John B Keane was bang on. Our relationship with land is disturbing

awec · 28-06-2020 9:22pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Any policy that properly addresses the housing problem will inevitably cause the price of existing stock to fall, so there will be political pressure against these policies. Remember seeing a 2014 video of Michael Noonan talking about getting house prices back up..

That's because there was a need to kick start the Irish housing market again. Developers couldn't afford to build and owners couldn't afford to sell.

Treppen · 28-06-2020 9:40pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Rents looks very high in Ireland, which shows a lack of living space, supply, competition. But if there are no big emigration, and increase in residential construction, in my opinion the price might stay like this for long.

Regarding the politics, it's just politics that i'm not in position to speculate what will happen. I believe there is more populism, than real solutions on the housing. The only real solutions for housing is something that is based for long term, which would lead to increase in construction supplies.

It's early to say yet , I think things will hit in September when hopefully the covid tide goes out, and who gets to go back to work, spends discretionary money in restaurants etc.

Most recent Daft report for Dublin says that New For Sale Listings are down 73%... but at the same time supply is limited, so prices have barely seen a small dip!!! Of course people are definitely holding off, but supply in different areas is the key influencing factor, if that aint there then why would prices fall?

I reckon the rental sector for the hospitality industry workers will dive and maybe we'll see that converted to sales for families etc. instead of rentals. Which might help the first time buyers in more stable jobs have a better selection than previously.

Might not be so good for anyone trading up though as here the higher bracket homes will probably remain as is.

Maybe?!?

PommieBast · 28-06-2020 9:43pm

awec wrote: »

That's because there was a need to kick start the Irish housing market again. Developers couldn't afford to build and owners couldn't afford to sell.

Understandable in 2014 but I have seen no real change of direction since.

Smouse156 · 28-06-2020 10:07pm

Might not be so good for anyone trading up though as here the higher bracket homes will probably remain as is.

Maybe?!?[/quote]

This is most unlikely! Higher bracket homes have struggled since the market peek in mid 2018. Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown fell 7.1% in 2019 and that’s one of the most expensive regions. Given the removal of exemptions I would expect sub 400k homes to hold relatively steady and above to struggle, especially anything above 600k

https://www.irishtimes.com/1.4113172

House Prices 2021

Comments