This winter, we already have a thread started to guess the lowest temperature of the winter season. I mentioned that we also have this winter forecast contest as an annual tradition. But most of the people who enter that are regulars in the monthly forecast contest.
The first section below will be instructions about the standard monthly forecast contest. Enter one line for this, then go to part two of these contest instructions and find out what else you need to enter, only if you wish to submit that second entry into the winter forecast contest:
1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.
2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.
3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.
4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.
5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).
6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.
Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).
ADDITIONAL ENTRY FORM FOR WINTER FORECAST CONTEST
After you post the usual December entry (see part one above), add the following details in a separate line or column --
Jan and Feb IMT (normals are 5.3 and 5.2)
MAX for the winter season (leave blank if you think your Dec prediction is good for that) -- MAX must be recorded in Dec 2018, Jan 2019 or Feb 2019.
MIN for the winter -- once again, if your December prediction is "it" then leave blank, note that MIN can occur as late as contest end date of 15th April, you don't have to say when you think this will happen.
Then add Jan and Feb PRC forecasts (% of normal as per Dec).
Also add a total snowfall at Casement (cms) for the winter season to 15 April.
Finally predict a maximum wind gust for the three winter month period, anything that happens on 28 to 30 November is not in play.
There will be a 3-day extension of the deadline for this winter forecast so if you want, you can delay posting these additional values, or send them to me by PM. No rush on adding them, and they are non-binding on your Jan and Feb monthly forecasts when the time comes for those.
You can enter just the winter forecast contest if you wish. The deadline for that will be end of the day Monday 3rd of December. Follow part two instructions, and add December IMT and PRC. Definitions of IMT and PRC are found in part one above (basically, the mean temperature and percentage of normal precipitation). I work out from your monthly forecasts the winter averages.
Good luck everyone !