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Longshot Value Podcast. (whats changed over the last 3 years)

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  • 23-05-2019 10:32am
    #1
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭


    Looking at various tipsters, and trying to find value myself, its clear that things have got a lot tougher over the last few years.

    I'm going to do a podcast about it, and see where we go to now to find value.

    Betting has gone a bit like poker, there are a lot more intelligent backers on exchanges and it way tougher for value prices to stay for long.

    Anyone like to comment , or have a point for discussion


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    #2
    sdoc13
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    aidankkk wrote:
    Anyone like to comment , or have a point for discussion

    aidankkk wrote:
    I'm going to do a podcast about it, and see where we go to now to find value.

    aidankkk wrote:
    Betting has gone a bit like poker, there are a lot more intelligent backers on exchanges and it way tougher for value prices to stay for long.

    Would agree. Account closures playing a huge part. Plus bookies seem to have tightened up. Betting tax etc. Closure of independent bookies leaving little to competition for the big boys not helping.

    Going exactly like the poker went and much more difficult to find the value for the casual enthusiast.


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    #3
    famagusta
    Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭famagusta


    It's much harder these days, account restrictions, removing of BOG on some online accounts, 1/5 odds, I would do a lot of bets the bookies don't like

    I used to do a lot of ew doubles on short prices with 1/4 odds, had a good margin, mostly gone now.

    Betting in cash now is all I still a couple of markets where I have an edge. Still money to be made, much easier at the festivals, extra places and 1/4 odds.


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    #4
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    I think its clear that at the very big races, where a differing opinion can be rewarded.

    I used to laugh my hole off at the prices of favs in 25 runner saturday handicaps, that almost never won. That has changed in the last few years. More and more of these races are being won by shorter priced horses.

    This discussion wont really be about account closures, im talking more about the prices of value horses i fancy (along with other longer prices tipsters) being cut earlier as the knowledgeable punter get in earlier and earlier, on the exchanges etc. Account closures dont really effect your average €10 punter that much.

    Also funnily enough other podcasts are getting in earlier and earlier in the week and that also points out value to punters, if you listed to the right person.


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    #5
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Cannot say I’ve noticed that much of a change aside from account restrictions. Markets more efficient and aligned yes but offers to the small €10 betting person have never, ever been better


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    #6
    RoyalAcademy2
    Registered Users Posts: 48 ✭RoyalAcademy2


    What's the web address for podcast?


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    #7
    laguacamaya
    Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭laguacamaya


    As a long term poker player and racing enthusiast I can empathise with the OP. Now I love poker (I've a Maths background fwiw..) but struggle to make it worthwhile online these days. My preference is to play only the big series (SCOOP/WCOOP etc) these days, where it's more genuinely profitable. Similarly, I see the edge in horse betting being gradually stripped away for your average punter and only see that edge returned during the Bookies offers at the big meetings. That's the only bit of "value" for a mug punter like me.


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    #8
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Slightly off topic (poker) but online poker died years ago. Online Poker is for mugs since Black Friday or whenever the US clamped down. The cash games on the fringes of the World Series are still profitable for a grinder. But that’s a limited timeframe and you have to cover costs so making it pay for the time invested is difficult. Look at the countless pros who fail playing poker. Anyway don’t want to drag off topic further.

    Horseracing betting for the €10 low stakes punter is the best it’s ever been


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    #9
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I have an online account which I predominantly use for exotic bets like Trixies, Yankees, 6 folds etc. Online you get BOG on accumulators. This adds up.

    If I am having a proper bet it is only going to be on a Group 1 race. All horses are trying. I go to a shop to get on. I would rarely bet more than € 500 on a horse so I have never raised any eyebrows or had any issues with the bookies in that regard.

    For example tonight I will probably blow 5 or 6 tenners at Sandown. I don't care if I lose € 60, it is not going to change my life and I will still make the pub tomorrow.

    I am the complete depiction of a mug punter, but I enjoy it and don't get carried away. I know the bookies love a clown like me. They want me to spend 60 and win 50. If I can give them a fiver a day they are happy.

    Online poker is massively rigged, don't go there. It is rubbish. Go to your local casino and meet real people and enjoy it. We are really lucky to have a poker scene in this country.


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    #10
    madmoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Far too many tipsters now that the bookies react to by slashing their odds if the tipsters start having a good spell but when they dip in form they still cut them. The below ones are the main ones i can think of who The bookies keep a check on it seems.

    Hugh Taylor (Second to none with proven record for years and still proves it but worst one for bookies to react to)

    Andy Holding (Has good spells, mainly the off midweek meetings he does better)

    Paul Kealy (Really good and seems consistent enough with winners)

    Ben Linfoot (Not sure if doing well but odds get cut a few points when he posts his value bet blogs at 5pm)

    Simon Rowlands (Recent one on ATR that has been doing well the last few months that i have saw and of late his prices have been cut quick)

    Tom Segal (Used to be the main one the bookies would react to but it might be alot less now as he has gone downhill, seems to now choose shorter prices than he ever would of done)

    I just think social media also doesnt help this and the bookies get the access as quick as us now.


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    #11
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Would disagree about smart punters taking prices on exchsnges the night before. Not enough liquidity it's morons taking pennies the night before that ruins the price for all


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    #12
    pugw
    Registered Users Posts: 634 ✭✭✭pugw


    Fully agree with the OP, i think PP in particular have tightened up a lot, if I was looking to back something outside the top3 in the betting, powers would be a few points worse off than elsewhere a few hours before the off! 365 nearly always better than them now. An extra place special at 1/5 if the odds won’t do much bar cover the bet!
    Off topic but I noticed it this year with the GAA too, the goalcast bet with PP (1st goal + team to win) previously the price quoted would be better than combining the individual goal scorer / match win bet prices .. but this year it’s worse and they don’t let you do a double on this as they are related bets!


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    #13
    PhuckHugh22
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    So i have to many thoughts on this to write down tbh. But here is my main one.

    Over the past year or so it has become a growing trend that high street bookmakers offer ridiculous and non sustainable (with the old model) extra place races.
    So you are now finding that your big handicaps of the week 16-20+ runner fields are getting anywhere from 5-7 places. This completely upends the back end of the market as nobody is going 50/1 on a horse in a 6 or 7 place race.
    You then end up with a ridiculous over round.

    I have found that if doing each way when getting extra places the best time to often bet is when the on-course markets open 10/15mins before the off. Not an exact science obviously but im fairly sure this is a contributing factor to the value in anything above 20/1.


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    #14
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    PhuckHugh22 wrote: »
    Over the past year or so it has become a growing trend that high street bookmakers offer ridiculous and non sustainable (with the old model) extra place races.
    So you are now finding that your big handicaps of the week 16-20+ runner fields are getting anywhere from 5-7 places. This completely upends the back end of the market as nobody is going 50/1 on a horse in a 6 or 7 place race.
    You then end up with a ridiculous over round.

    Really? I could be wrong but haven't noticed too much of an effect on the back end of markets on these place concession races.


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    #15
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,398 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Peintre Celebre wrote: »
    Would disagree about smart punters taking prices on exchsnges the night before. Not enough liquidity it's morons taking pennies the night before that ruins the price for all
    Have seen this first end in a few low grade races. Often happens when you have a syndicate, or multiple owners. It just takes two or three gobsh1tes to break ranks and to get on the computer with a few Euro to wreck the prices for everyone.


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    #16
    The Tetrarch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Looking at various tipsters, and trying to find value myself, its clear that things have got a lot tougher over the last few years.
    I'm going to do a podcast about it, and see where we go to now to find value.
    Betting has gone a bit like poker, there are a lot more intelligent backers on exchanges and it way tougher for value prices to stay for long.
    Anyone like to comment , or have a point for discussion
    Tipsters are a waste of time. If they could make money they would not be tipsters.
    Tipsters are for punters who do not like work on their choices.
    At the Horses For Courses classes about fifteen years ago a racing journalist said he was the tipster for a paper.
    In fact he was two tipsters for one paper, giving two different selections in each race under different names.
    My impression was he did not give much thought to selections.

    I do not back jumps racing. It is not natural to horses, a horse winning easily can disappear from the race in an instant, horses race for years and the form is known.

    As far as I can see there are no market makers in bookmakers anymore i.e. they do not price up races.
    At the races all the bookmakers put up the same prices for a horse.
    The punters decide the odds on the exchanges in the previous days and on the morning of the race. The bookmakers follow.

    You will not find value in handicaps unless conditions have changed, for example, the ground has become soft.

    You will find value by having more knowledge than others.
    Form is public knowledge and that eliminates value.
    Perhaps you would have an edge if you knew a horse was showing exceptional improvement in training.
    That information is soon reflected in the price as connections and staff try to get on.
    You will find edges in knowledge about other things, but I am not going to educate the forum.

    What would be useful is to ask one punter to analyse a race and make a betting choice.
    Get him/her to list their reasons, or you do it.
    Do this with a number of punters but independently each time i.e. they have no access to the other people.
    You will be amazed at the lack of work that goes into choices, and the lack of basic knowledge.
    Even more informative would be to ask them to pick a bet for the day.
    They can pick any race, at any meeting, at any distance, at any class.
    It is the choice they make i.e. the races they pass over, that tell a tale.

    Never trust percentages or averages. You should have the raw data.


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    #17
    maximo31
    Registered Users Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭maximo31


    Slightly off-topic but how do those guys in the daily newspapers get the jobs as tipsters? Never seems to be too much thought put into their selections , often being the 1st or 2nd favourite.


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    #18
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    The Tetrarch wrote: »
    Tipsters are a waste of time. If they could make money they would not be tipsters.
    Tipsters are for punters who do not like work on their choices.
    At the Horses For Courses classes about fifteen years ago a racing journalist said he was the tipster for a paper.
    In fact he was two tipsters for one paper, giving two different selections in each race under different names.
    My impression was he did not give much thought to selections.

    I do not back jumps racing. It is not natural to horses, a horse winning easily can disappear from the race in an instant, horses race for years and the form is known.

    As far as I can see there are no market makers in bookmakers anymore i.e. they do not price up races.
    At the races all the bookmakers put up the same prices for a horse.
    The punters decide the odds on the exchanges in the previous days and on the morning of the race. The bookmakers follow.

    You will not find value in handicaps unless conditions have changed, for example, the ground has become soft.

    You will find value by having more knowledge than others.
    Form is public knowledge and that eliminates value.
    Perhaps you would have an edge if you knew a horse was showing exceptional improvement in training.
    That information is soon reflected in the price as connections and staff try to get on.
    You will find edges in knowledge about other things, but I am not going to educate the forum.

    What would be useful is to ask one punter to analyse a race and make a betting choice.
    Get him/her to list their reasons, or you do it.
    Do this with a number of punters but independently each time i.e. they have no access to the other people.
    You will be amazed at the lack of work that goes into choices, and the lack of basic knowledge.
    Even more informative would be to ask them to pick a bet for the day.
    They can pick any race, at any meeting, at any distance, at any class.
    It is the choice they make i.e. the races they pass over, that tell a tale.

    Never trust percentages or averages. You should have the raw data.


    I never use other tipsters, i what i meant to say is that all the similar, bigger priced tipsters are having a lot of difficulty finding value in longshots the last few years.


    I think its because there is so much podcasts etc around now that any value is identified earlier, and waiting until Friday/Saturday doesnt cut it for big price value anymore.


    To me the markets seem more right that before.


    A few years ago it was easy to make a case for a 50/1 shot that wasnt 50/1, its not as easy now, as those value plays are found all the time earlier.


    There is still hope in big races, like Royal Ascot and Group 1s, and the likes of cheltenham, where its more about opinions.


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