I want this new type of lotto I thought of.

oeb · 13-02-2019 4:01pm

It's easier to visualize the system like this.

You are matched with another player, a coin flip decides who takes the pot. On day one, each player has a pot on square 1 (1c).

On day two, if you won yesterdays coin flip, you now have a 2c stake (your original stake, plus the 1c you won from yesterdays opponent.), so you are now matched with someone who also won yesterday, and the winner of this flip comes out of it with 4c.

This continues until you run out of players.

The main issue here, to keep it going for 30 days, you would need like half a billion players. (And have a one in half a billion chance of winning it, which makes it worse by a long shot than winning the Irish lotto)

I can see the appeal from a players perspective, it gives players a better idea of 'closeness' e.g. "I was so close, I got to day 22".

13-02-2019 4:04pm

Do you chose the heads or tails part? Or are you always on one or the other?

PARlance · 13-02-2019 4:04pm

Best of luck with it OP. I'll let you figure it out and do all the hard work.... I'll launch the 31 Day lotto then

Drumpot · 13-02-2019 4:07pm

Its an interesting idea. What is the percentage chance of winning the lottery or a significant amount from day 25 onwards ?

I had a different idea before and pitched it to the lotto long before they started to do it on some capacity more recently. Always have a guaranteed amount won by a random punter or punters.

Some examples:

-Lotto value up to 10 million - Next draw 10 random ticket holders win (that might take 3 draws to build it up to that level) if no 6 number winner
- Every lotto draw one random person wins €100,000 (or two win €50,000) - 104 people a year winning 100k.

It is similar to the millionaire raffle (which came out after I had suggested something similar)….

I know its greed and the enticement of a huge lump sum that reels some people in, but I think its a much better system where every time you buy a ticket you might win a significant by virtue of just actually having a ticket. You have the same chance as anybody with a ticket. I know they have a sh*tty watered down version of it, but I think this would be better TBH.

13-02-2019 4:09pm

This is the JS for it. You can run it by pressing F12 or somewhere else.

If you lower the .5 to .2 or something, you can see it winning easily.

loop1:
for (var i = 0; i < 20000; i++) {
  loop2:
  for (var j = 0; j < 30; j++) {
    var flip = Math.random();
    if (flip > .5) {
      if (j === 29) {
        console.log("Wins after: " + i + " flips");
        break loop1;
      }
    } else {
      break loop2;
    }
  }
}

Outlaw Pete · 13-02-2019 4:10pm

I'm sticking with the nags. Playful Spirit easily wins the 4.00 @ Southwell.

Then all I'll need is just another 29 Even money shots and I'll be a multi millionaire!

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2019 4:14pm

Deleted User wrote: »

No, that would require effort. I'm talking about an automated accumulator starting at 1c every day.

So the idea is that in the rest of your life, you could have 15k-20k of these accumulators happen, and if one of them manages to win the flip 30 times in a row, you get 5.4m. Your investment in those years is like e200.

Only very small issue is that the odds of predicting x30 coin flips correctly is 54,000,000+/1.
Then there's the operator cut usually 15% to pay.

artanevilla · 13-02-2019 4:19pm

Lobster Book wrote: »

From people's losses.

Of 1 cent? Doesn't come close to covering costs.

super_furry · 13-02-2019 4:22pm

You don't need 30 days, just go to a roulette wheel.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2019 4:27pm

super_furry wrote: »

You don't need 30 days, just go to a roulette wheel.

Problem with roulette is that it's not an AvB event (red/black), there is also one (or sometimes two) green locations that are 'null events'. That's how they make all the monies in vegas-partytown (all those shinny lights aren't free).

I only do accumulators through real-world events that present an edge or maximum risk reduction options, flipping a coin is not one of them.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 13-02-2019 4:29pm

Boom_Bap wrote: »

Sorry that’s not a picture of a pyramid idea, it’s a funnel. Clearly.

Boom_Bap · 13-02-2019 4:34pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Sorry that’s not a picture of a pyramid idea, it’s a funnel. Clearly.

200.gif?cid=3640f6095c5346a22f3237496f81a174

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2019 4:35pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I'm sticking with the nags. Playful Spirit easily wins the 4.00 @ Southwell.

Then all I'll need is just another 29 Even money shots and I'll be a multi millionaire!

49.25% negative (drift) movement this am, a possible false positive signal.
Whereas the only other one has 50% shortening.
Could just be market re-balancing.

Like the look of a (novelty) Forex market with GBP-EUR Parity <2019 EOY @4.0.
Only as a low-stack acca build option on 6 from 7.
Brexit has moved towards no deal, but everything hinges on meeting on 25th March at Brussels, so worth Hold 'till then.

13-02-2019 4:38pm

Right, after a fair whack of testing, 30 is too many.

25 works reasonably well for a village of 1,000 people. Around half the time, at least one of them will win e168k within 50 years.

https://playcode.io/252192?tabs=console&script.js&output

Rerun it by adding a space at the end.

artanevilla · 13-02-2019 4:42pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Right, after a fair whack of testing, 30 is too many.

25 works reasonably well for a village of 1,000 people. Around half the time, at least one of them will win e168k within 50 years.

https://playcode.io/252192?tabs=console&script.js&output

Rerun it by adding a space at the end.

What happens if one of the 1,000 people die within 50 years? Assuming they will all be nearly 70 if they start playing at 18?

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2019 4:43pm

Deleted User wrote: »

....1,000 people.
.... one of them
...€168k
within 50 years.
.

Maybe leave that bit (or all of it really) off the marketing blurb.
Just tell em they'll be rich, rich, rich whatever happens.

13-02-2019 4:46pm

artanevilla wrote: »

What happens if one of the 1,000 people die within 50 years? Assuming they will all be nearly 70 if they start playing at 18?

Nothing happens. They've stopped paying their e3.65 a year.

I quite like playing with this. If you reduce it to 20 flips in a row, you win e5.2k. Then between 10 and 20 people from the 1,000-person village will win in their lifetimes for that e3.65 / year.

I'd play it, but not many would. And I'd increase it from one cent to five or ten cent.

Outlaw Pete · 13-02-2019 4:50pm

Greyson Rapid Human wrote: »

49.25% negative (drift) movement this am, a possible false positive signal.

Aye, went out to 2.22 at one stage, wish I'd got some of that.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 13-02-2019 4:57pm

Boom_Bap wrote: »

Dammit.

13-02-2019 5:02pm

artanevilla wrote: »

Of 1 cent? Doesn't come close to covering costs.

yeah 3.65 a year even x 1000 isn't going to cover any of the winnings let alone running costs

13-02-2019 5:07pm

bluewolf wrote: »

yeah 3.65 a year even x 1000 isn't going to cover any of the winnings let alone running costs

Uh, so it's a winning system that beats the bookies? The math has to work out in the bookie's favour if they take any sort of cut, even 1%.

Boom_Bap · 13-02-2019 5:09pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Dammit.

A business opportunity as rare as the albani berries themselves

13-02-2019 5:11pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Uh, so it's a winning system that beats the bookies? The math has to work out in the bookie's favour if they take any sort of cut, even 1%.

i pay you 1c. if i get 30 tails in a row, you give me 5.3m.
where's that coming from?

Richard Hillman · 13-02-2019 5:15pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I'm sticking with the nags. Playful Spirit easily wins the 4.00 @ Southwell.

Then all I'll need is just another 29 Even money shots and I'll be a multi millionaire!

I put €1 on this. Cheers

cruizer101 · 13-02-2019 5:16pm

bluewolf wrote: »

i pay you 1c. if i get 30 tails in a row, you give me 5.3m.
where's that coming from?

You have a 1 in a billion chance of winning, so if another billion people play thats where the money comes from, because only one will win.

13-02-2019 5:17pm

bluewolf wrote: »

i pay you 1c. if i get 30 tails in a row, you give me 5.3m.
where's that coming from?

The tiny chance of it ever happening. Ie. All your wasted money and others'. But bookies do take hits sometimes and even have to close because of a win.

13-02-2019 5:22pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I put €1 on this. Cheers

Haha it won?

Deebles McBeebles · 13-02-2019 5:24pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Haha it won?

Sure did. Just 364 more of those and you're laughing.

DEFTLEFTHAND · 13-02-2019 5:32pm

I was thinking of running a fun draw for all 5000 boards members.

Entry cost: Just 1 euro from each of you. Step right up, you don't want to miss out.

1st prize: 75 sovs, 2nd: 40 3rd: 20.

Outlaw Pete · 13-02-2019 5:41pm

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Sure did. Just 364 more of those and you're laughing.

He'll be laughing long before that. Just 19 more Even money tips from me and he'll have turned his €1 in €1,048,576.00!

The first one was free though.... to get the rest, just send €10 to siroutlawpete@gmail.com

mickdw · 14-02-2019 12:03am

Looking at this lotto scheme. Assuming 50 50, success at each jump, 500 million people would need to play 1c daily to produce a winner every day.
However if everyone played €1 per day (100 plays) and if maybe only 4 winners per year were expected, about 60,000 players would do.

I want this new type of lotto I thought of.

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