February 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 27-01-2014 6:24am #1

The 1981-2010 average IMT for February is 5.2 C

As always, the contest has five regular questions:

1. Predict the IMT (average for Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon)

2. Predict the MAX anywhere that Met.ie has a thermometer in action as reported in the Monthly Summary

3. Predict the MIN same basis

4. Predict the PRC as % of normal (winter PRC includes melted equivalents) at the eleven sites that are reviewed in the Monthly Summary from Met-E.

5. Predict the SUN as % of normal at reporting stations (six are usually reviewed in the Monthly Summary from Met-E).

6. Bonus this month: Highest maximum temperature on Valentines' Day which as I am sure you know is Friday the 14th. (8 pts) and add a location for a further bonus of 2 if you're correct, although lone wolf forecasts will earn 4 pts and exclusive pairs will earn 3.

You can now enter this contest at the following location:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

or you can enter directly on this thread.

The deadline, as usual, will be 0300h on the 2nd (Sunday) after which penalties of 5% per half-day apply.

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2014 9:32pm

bump(y road ahead)

Three entries so far, thanks 200m, pauldry and MTC whoever you are.

Don't forget, deadline is Sunday 2nd at 0300h.

Bsal · 30-01-2014 10:16pm

Done.

Rikand · 30-01-2014 11:05pm

done

Danno · 31-01-2014 1:32am

done

dasa29 · 31-01-2014 2:40am

Done

jd · 31-01-2014 11:01am

done

omicron · 31-01-2014 4:05pm

Done

Harps · 31-01-2014 8:16pm

Done

DOCARCH · 01-02-2014 7:24am

Done

homolumo · 01-02-2014 1:38pm

Done

kindredspirit · 01-02-2014 5:54pm

I wouldn't win an argument .......................but done.

Tae laidir · 01-02-2014 7:22pm

kindredspirit wrote: »

I wouldn't win an argument .......................but done.

Valencia an interesting choice.

Done!

Joe Public · 01-02-2014 8:01pm

Done with this weather!

mickger844posts · 01-02-2014 10:54pm

done

nilhg · 01-02-2014 11:08pm

done

traecy1 · 01-02-2014 11:25pm

Done

dacogawa · 02-02-2014 2:32am

Done

lostinashford · 02-02-2014 9:31am

Done

rameire · 02-02-2014 10:20am

Doh. Done.

John mac · 02-02-2014 11:10am

done. late again

Jpmarn · 02-02-2014 8:29pm

Done, sorry I'm late.

delw · 02-02-2014 9:22pm

its' late but done

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2014 7:11am

February 2014 Forecasts

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 14th

M.T. Cranium ____________ 6.3 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 175 _ 090 _ 12.3 Val
nilhg ___________________ 6.3 _ 12.3 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 100 __ 9.6 Oak
lostinashford_____________ 6.1 _ 14.5 _ --3.3 _ 135 _ 090 _ 10.5 Oak
omicron _________________6.0 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 120 _ 100 __ 9.0 Joh
kindredspirit _____________ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 098 _ 10.5 Val
dacogawa _______________ 5.8 _ 14.5 _ --5.5 _ 140 _ 100 __ 9.9 Val
mickger844posts _________ 5.8 _ 14.2 _ --3.1 _ 123 _ 090 _ 10.1 Oak
Tae laidir ________________5.8 _ 13.2 _ --4.2 _ 155 _ 105 _ 10.8 She
Danno __________________5.7 _ 14.7 _ --5.1 _ 140 _ 100 __ 8.4 She
waterways ______________ 5.6 _ 13.1 _ --4.5 _ 132 _ 089 _ 12.0 Oak
rameire ________________ 5.6 _ 13.0 _ --4.0 _ 105 _ 095 _ 10.0 Cas
200 motels ______________ 5.5 _ 13.6 _ --4.1 _ 169 _ 065 _ 11.5 Val
jpmarn ___ (-10%) _______ 5.5 _ 13.3 _ --2.9 _ 095 _ 080 _ 10.5 Sha

Con Sensus _____________ 5.5 _ 13.7 _ --4.0 _ 120 _ 095 _ 10.2 Val

melanoma ______________ 5.5 _ 13.2 _ --3.0 _ 115 _ 096 _ 10.3 Oak
DOCARCH _______________ 5.4 _ 15.2 _ --3.2 _ 125 _ 096 _ 13.8 Cas
harps __________________ 5.4 _ 13.9 _ --3.6 _ 130 _ 095 __ 9.6 Val
jd _____________________ 5.4 _ 13.6 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 089 _ 12.7 Val
Bsal ____________________5.4 _ 12.7 _ --5.0 _ 111 _ 097 _ 10.0 Val
traecy.1 ________________ 5.3 _ 15.4 _ --4.8 _ 130 _ 095 _ 10.8 Val
homolumo _______________5.2 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 110 _ 085 __ 9.1 Oak
rikand __________________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 9.5 Joh
John mac ___ (-5%) ______ 5.1 _ 14.3 _ --4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _ 13.2 She
pauldry _________________ 5.1 _ 13.0 _ --5.0 _ 143 _ 091 _ 12.0 Val
dasa 29 _________________5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.0 _ 105 _ 085 _ 12.0 Mul
Joe Public _______________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ --4.9 _ 139 _ 099 __ 8.9 Val
delw _____ (-10%) _______ 4.6 _ 11.0 _ --2.0 _ 150 _ 085 __ 9.0 Val
________________________________________________

The general consensus is a rather mild, wet and slightly dull month, with the warmest reading on the 14th most likely to be 10-12 in the southwest.

None among us apparently foresees much chance of any severely cold weather before the end of February, the lowest MIN forecast is --5.5 deg.

Good luck to all (except Con).

Joe Public · 08-02-2014 12:28pm

Soon we might have an average monthly wind speed column.

M.T. Cranium · 09-02-2014 1:21am

After one week,

IMT at 5.3 C

PRC at 239% of normal

SUN at 85% of normal

and more wind than an all-candidates meeting.

pauldry · 09-02-2014 11:26pm

dont think consensus will do too well on the temperature this month.

its heading down more this week

with nine news weather having a snow? at the start

omicron · 11-02-2014 10:46am

-4.3 in Mullingar yesterday is prob a new min for the month so far.

Joe Public · 14-02-2014 11:33pm

Sherkin Island had a 10.3C today according to Ogimet, pipped Valentia by .1

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2014 2:18am

Our consensus was not too shabby then. (10.2 Val)

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2014 11:58pm

After two weeks at the halfway point ...

IMT at 4.7 C

PRC at 268% of normal

SUN at 90% of normal

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2014 7:38pm

After three weeks ...

IMT at 5.2 C

PRC at 236% of normal (the week at 172%)

SUN at 103% of normal (the week at 130%)

March thread is open for your forecasts.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2014 7:02pm

After four weeks, these are provisional final numbers based on the Ag Summary and monthly data (MS will be out on Monday for the official numbers).

IMT at 5.5 C

PRC at 230% (the week at 212%)

SUN at 107% (the week at 117%)

Will post some scores on Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2014 7:54pm

The final values are ...

IMT 5.5 C

MAX 12.5 (Phoenix Park, 19th)

MIN --4.3 (Mullingar, 10th)

PRC 236% (mercy rule invoked -- my high forecast of 175% would score zero by the regular rules

)

SUN 109%

14th max 10.3 Sherkin Island ... 3 correct locations get 1 extra bonus point each (solo is worth 2 extra, 2 or 3 score 1). None of these qualify for the second extra bonus that goes to anyone who scores max (8 pts) on temp at correct location.

Scoring for February 2014

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 14th ___ TOTALS

Actual values ____________ 5.5_12.5_--4.3_236_109_10.3 Sherkin

Tae laidir ________________22 _ 13 _ 19 _ 12* _ 09 _ 07 03 ________ 85
Bsal ____________________24 _ 18 _ 13 _ 05* _ 08 _ 07 00 ________ 75
waterways ______________ 24 _ 14 _ 18 _ 07* _ 06 _ 05 00 ________ 74
rameire _________________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 02* _ 07 _ 07 00 ________ 72
200 motels ______________ 25 _ 09 _ 18 _ 13* _ 01 _ 05 00 ________ 71

Con Sensus _____________ 25 _ 08 _ 17 _ 06* _ 07 _ 08 00 ________ 71

pauldry _________________ 21 _ 15 _ 13 _ 10* _ 06 _ 04 00 ________ 69
melanoma _______________25 _ 13 _ 07 _ 05* _ 07 _ 08 00 ________ 65
rikand __________________ 22 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05* _ 10 __ 06 00 _______ 65
nilhg ___________________ 17 _ 18 _ 10 _ 05* _ 08 __ 06 00 _______ 64
M.T. Cranium ____________ 17 _ 05 _ 17 _ 14* _ 06 _ 03 00 ________ 62
harps __________________ 24 _ 06 _ 13 _ 07* _ 07 _ 06 00 ________ 63
homolumo _______________22 _ 05 _ 17 _ 05* _ 05 __ 05 00 _______ 59
dasa 29 _________________20 _ 15 _ 13 _ 02* _ 05 _ 04 00 ________ 59
Joe Public _______________ 19 _ 06 _ 14 _ 08* _ 08 __ 03 00 _______ 58
jd _____________________ 24 _ 09 _ 12 _ 05* _ 06 _ 02 00 ________ 58
traecy.1 ________________ 23 _ 00 _ 15 _ 07* _ 07 _ 06 00 ________ 58
Danno __________________23 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09* _ 08 __ 03 03 _______ 58
omicron _________________20 _ 10 _ 07 _ 06* _ 08 __ 05 00 _______ 56
dacogawa _______________ 22 _ 00 _ 08 _ 09* _ 08 __ 06 00 _______ 53
John mac ___ (-5%) _______21 _ 02 _ 18 _ 05* _ 08 _ 01 03 __ 58-5 = 53
mickger844posts _________ 22 _ 03 _ 08 _ 06* _ 06 _ 08 00_________ 53
lostinashford_____________ 19 _ 00 _ 10 _ 08* _ 06 _ 08 00 ________ 51
kindredspirit _____________ 21 _ 00 _ 07 _ 05* _ 08 _ 08 00 ________ 49
DOCARCH _______________24 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06* _ 07 _ 01 00 _________ 47
jpmarn ___ (-10%) _______ 25 _ 12 _ 06 _ 00 __ 04 _ 08 00 __ 55-10 = 45
delw _____ (-10%) _______ 16 _ 05 _ 00 _ 11* _ 05 __ 04 00 _ 41-10 = 31
_______________________________________________________________________________

Congrats to Tae laidir, Bsal and waterways for leading the way in a rather high-scoring month for almost all, before penalties nobody was under 40 which is quite unusual. Our consensus was stunningly accurate for the 14th. It worked out to a perfect forecast for Valentia anyway.

I will post the annual totals and the seasonal winners in a while.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2014 9:07pm

Annual and Seasonal winter 2013-14 Scores

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F _ TOTAL ___ Dec 2013 __ seasonal __ points

01 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 __ 149 _______ 62 ______ 211 _ 10 (1st)

02 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 __ 135 _______ 41 ______ 176 __ 1

02 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 __ 134 _______ 43 ______ 177 __ 2 (7th)
03 _ rikand _________ 68 _ 65 __ 133 _______ 33 _______ 166 __ 1
04 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 __ 131 _______ 66 ______ 197 __ 7 (2nd)
04 _ Tae laidir _______46 _ 85 __ 131 _______ 47 ______ 178 __ 3 (6th)
06 _ rameire ________54 _ 72 __ 126 _______ 43 _______ 169 __ 1
06 _ omicron ________70 _ 56 __ 126 _______ 58 _______184 __ 4 (5th)
08 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 __ 125 _______ 33 _______ 158
09 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 __ 124 _______ 61 _______ 185 __ 5 (4th)
10 _ mickger844posts_ 69 _ 53 __ 122_______ 33 _______ 155
11 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 __ 121 _______ 55 ______ 176 __ 1
11 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 __ 121 _______ 44 _______ 165
13 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 __ 120 _______ 39 _______ 159
13 _ harps __________57 _ 63 __ 120 _______ 35 _______ 155
13 _ dasa 29 ________61 _ 59 __ 120 _______ 29 _______ 149
16 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 __ 118 _______ 23 _______ 141
16 _ jd ____________ 60 _ 58 __ 118 _______ 30 _______ 148
18 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 __ 117 _______ 11 _______ 128
19 _ kindredspirit ____ 67 _ 49 __ 116 _______ 41 ________157
20 _ Danno _________54 _ 58 __ 112 _______ -- ________ 112
21 _ jpmarn ________ 61 _ 45 __ 106 ______ 84 ________ 190 __ 6 (3rd)
22 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 __ 105 _______ 29 ________134
23 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 __ 104 _______ -- _______ 104
24 _ DOCARCH ______54 _ 47 __ 101 ______ 40 _________141
25 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 ___ 75 ______ -- __________75
26 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ -- ___ 59 _______ 37 _________ 96
26 _ okla ___________59 _ -- ___ 59 ______ 33 _________ 92
28 _ lostinashford_____-- _ 51 ___ 51 _______ -- _________ 51
29 _ octo ___________47 _ -- ___ 47 _______ -- _________ 47
30 _ seafields _______ 40 _ -- ___ 40 _______ 43 _________83
__________________________________________________________

Seasonal scores do not include forecasters who only entered December, ranks are based on 10 pts for first and 7, 6, 5 etc for 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc, with 1 pt for 8th to 10th.

Rikand · 04-03-2014 12:12pm

3rd place total - I'm screenshotting that, i wont be anywhere near that again

M.T. Cranium · 05-03-2014 3:24am

Recently our consensus forecasts have improved, which must mean we are all improving a little. Maybe a new global model, the BIE ??

February 2014 Boards forecast contest

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