Where all the houses gone?

mcbert · 04-11-2019 1:32pm #1

Galway city, west side, looking for a 4/5 bed 2nd hand.

Market is dead.

If prices are static or falling slightly, and recession/brexit perhaps on the way, what are people waiting for if they are thinking of selling?

Likewise, with new builds under construction, why would sellers wait for them to be built, why not try sell up before they go on the market?

Ok, I understand people deciding not to sell at all, cancelling their plan for a few years. Fine. But surely not everyone can do that, and I dont quite understand people seeing trouble on the horizon, and thinking, 'lets wait a few months and see, be sure things are bad before we sell'.

I see some EAs not bothering to mark their property as sale agreed on Daft, I suppose to make themselves look busier than they really are.

All we see are a few houses now, above our budget and arent shifting. Last year was much better.

Its frustrating. Put your damn house up for sale, and ill go take a look next day...

Marius34 · 05-11-2019 1:27pm

mcbert wrote: »

I dont quite understand people seeing trouble on the horizon, and thinking, 'lets wait a few months and see, be sure things are bad before we sell'.

I see there are quite a few 4/5 bed houses in Galway west.
You probably won't see many of houses put on sale until February. It's a bad months for Sale. Dark short days, cold and wet.
In addition from the Sellers perspective, the main worry was expected No-Deal Brexit, which since middle of October doesn't seem to be a case anymore, thus recession is not expect from the Brexit(with deal) in itself. I would think this is main reason why many sellers would not be in rush to sell at the moment.

SozBbz · 05-11-2019 4:42pm

Not that I'm a seller or in your area, but if I was only thinking about selling my house, I wouldn't put it on now until the 3rd week in Jan at the earliest.

I wouldnt expect to see much new to market between now and then. If by end of Feb nothing is stirring, then you're right.

PhoenixParker · 05-11-2019 10:08pm

4&5 bed houses on the west side of Galway don't get sold, they get inherited. Obviously a few do end up being sold but far fewer than would be typical in a city that size. Most decent sized family houses get bought out by one of the family.

mcbert · 05-11-2019 11:00pm

PhoenixParker wrote: »

4&5 bed houses on the west side of Galway don't get sold, they get inherited. Obviously a few do end up being sold but far fewer than would be typical in a city that size. Most decent sized family houses get bought out by one of the family.

Thanks. That's interesting. Makes some sense I suppose although I still think last year was better.

riclad · 06-11-2019 3:48pm

How many 4 bed house, s are built in galway very few,
look for a 3 bed house, with a large front room, and a utility room, most builder,s build a house, with 3 bedrooms and maybe a utility room ,or an extra room beside the kitchen , as well as the front room .
or just go house size,
eg i want a house at least 1000 sq ft .
you could be waiting a long time for a 4 bed house unless you have
alot of money to spend .
one off house,s tend to be bigger , outside the city centre .
look on daft.ie 3 bed .

what_traffic · 06-11-2019 7:13pm

mcbert wrote: »

Galway city, west side, looking for a 4/5 bed 2nd hand.

Market is dead.

Agree in established areas. How far West is the key? Established areas very little on offer - Availability in KnocknaCarra is pretty high though especially for 4 bed.

Quadrivium · 23-11-2019 2:31am

mcbert wrote: »

Galway city, west side, looking for a 4/5 bed 2nd hand.

Market is dead.

If prices are static or falling slightly, and recession/brexit perhaps on the way, what are people waiting for if they are thinking of selling?

Likewise, with new builds under construction, why would sellers wait for them to be built, why not try sell up before they go on the market?

Ok, I understand people deciding not to sell at all, cancelling their plan for a few years. Fine. But surely not everyone can do that, and I dont quite understand people seeing trouble on the horizon, and thinking, 'lets wait a few months and see, be sure things are bad before we sell'.

I see some EAs not bothering to mark their property as sale agreed on Daft, I suppose to make themselves look busier than they really are.

All we see are a few houses now, above our budget and arent shifting. Last year was much better.

Its frustrating. Put your damn house up for sale, and ill go take a look next day...

Over 1 million immigrants have arrived in Ireland over the last 15 years.
The conservative estimate for persons per house is 3 per house.
That would mean 333,000 houses should have been built to accommodate the increase in population over the last 10 to 15 years but we haven't even managed 20,000 house builds per year over the last 10 years.

Demand in the housing market is still astronomical and it will not end until immigration is controlled or stopped.

un5byh7sqpd2x0 · 23-11-2019 2:42am

Quadrivium wrote: »

Over 1 million immigrants have arrived in Ireland over the last 15 years.
The conservative estimate for persons per house is 3 per house.
That would mean 333,000 houses should have been built to accommodate the increase in population over the last 10 to 15 years but we haven't even managed 20,000 house builds per year over the last 10 years.

Demand in the housing market is still astronomical and it will not end until immigration is controlled or stopped.

Where are your figures coming from? Your arse?

Mrs OBumble · 23-11-2019 2:45am

Quadrivium wrote: »

Over 1 million immigrants have arrived in Ireland over the last 15 years.

And how many left again when the bottom fell out of the economy in 2009?

Quadrivium · 23-11-2019 2:45am

Lacey Bitter Tension wrote: »

Where are your figures coming from? Your arse?

Is that what they call the Central Statistics Office these days?

180,000 pps numbers were issued to non Nationals in 2018 alone, hello! Wakey wakey, have you been living in a cave or you don't have eyes? Mass immigration to Ireland is happening and it's been happening for almost 20 years, the negative social impact is just beginning...it's only gonna get worse.

Quadrivium · 23-11-2019 2:47am

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

And how many left again when the bottom fell out of the economy in 2009?

Estimates range around 200,000 that left pre 2012 but 600,000 arrived since 2013.

Mrs OBumble · 23-11-2019 3:12am

Quadrivium wrote: »

Estimates range around 200,000 that left pre 2012 but 600,000 arrived since 2013.

That's not what this page says: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

23-11-2019 9:58am

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

That's not what this page says: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

I’m not a statistician, but that graph does seem to back up what the poster’s claim about pre 2013 emigration (200k) and post immigration (600k).

mcbert · 23-11-2019 10:01am

This nonsense has got nothing to do with this thread. Don't feed the troll. Lack of 4/5 bed homes for sale in galway city has nothing to do with immigration.

23-11-2019 10:41am

mcbert wrote: »

This nonsense has got nothing to do with this thread. Don't feed the troll. Lack of 4/5 bed homes for sale in galway city has nothing to do with immigration.

You don’t believe an increase in population can have an effect on housing stock? An improved economy & net immigration increases population and means more people looking for property and more people have the means to retain/buy homes. Owners don’t have to sell, they are not having to emigrate/migrate for work, and when they do sell, more people can afford to buy it.

mcbert · 23-11-2019 11:13am

Great. The anti-foreigner, ireland-for-the-irish morons are busy this morning. Now I have to unfollow my own thread.

listermint · 23-11-2019 11:21am

Dav010 wrote: »

You don’t believe an increase in population can have an effect on housing stock? An improved economy & net immigration increases population and means more people looking for property and more people have the means to retain/buy homes. Owners don’t have to sell, they are not having to emigrate/migrate for work, and when they do sell, more people can afford to buy it.

You lads are as boring as the day is long

whisky_galore · 23-11-2019 11:26am

Ah yes, all these immigrants arriving in containers with just the clothes on their backs are buying up all the housing stock on the poor old Irish...yep that's it.

listermint · 23-11-2019 11:26am

whisky_galore wrote: »

Ah yes, all these immigrants arriving in containers with just the clothes on their backs are buying up all the housing stock on the poor old Irish...yep that's it.

George Soros is funding their property purchases.

Blueshoe · 23-11-2019 11:33am

whisky_galore wrote: »

Ah yes, all these immigrants arriving in containers with just the clothes on their backs are buying up all the housing stock on the poor old Irish...yep that's it.

Don't be silly and deflecting. It's painfully obvious that more people = more housing needed. But those houses aren't being built. The available stock becomes more expensive. Basic supply and demand.

beauf · 23-11-2019 11:35am

whisky_galore wrote: »

Ah yes, all these immigrants arriving in containers with just the clothes on their backs are buying up all the housing stock on the poor old Irish...yep that's it.

A lot of people have moved here because we have shortage in high paid jobs like medicine or IT. Often they are well educated, good experience, and often quite well off before they get here. Some are business people and are quite successful here. They are just as likely to invest in property as anyone else.

beauf · 23-11-2019 11:37am

mcbert wrote: »

Great. The anti-foreigner, ireland-for-the-irish morons are busy this morning. Now I have to unfollow my own thread.

Maybe you tell us the answer you want to hear so people can oblige.

beauf · 23-11-2019 11:39am

It's expensive to build (tax) hard to get finance, market uncertain, and people are looking for housing that has the least profit in it. Most developers will be wary.

Nika Bolokov · 23-11-2019 11:46am

Growing population.

Sellers not in the main under pressure to sell.

If buyers are limited in how much they can borrow and prices are static than there is very limited incentive for owners to sell especially if they have bought in the last 3 to 5 years.

High construction costs including concrete being twice the price it is in the UK mean limited margins for developers with not much incentive to build on sites bought after 2014.

L1011 · 23-11-2019 12:25pm

Take the immigration talk elsewhere

Mad_maxx · 23-11-2019 12:39pm

whisky_galore wrote: »

Ah yes, all these immigrants arriving in containers with just the clothes on their backs are buying up all the housing stock on the poor old Irish...yep that's it.

Since when does needing a roof over one's head mean you must buy a house?

whisky_galore · 23-11-2019 12:42pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Since when does needing a roof over one's head mean you must buy a house?

The sarcasm eludes you.

Mad_maxx · 23-11-2019 12:49pm

whisky_galore wrote: »

The sarcasm eludes you.

Nah, just exposing the fallacy that merely not having the means to buy a house renders one having no effect upon housing availability

23-11-2019 1:02pm

mcbert wrote: »

Great. The anti-foreigner, ireland-for-the-irish morons are busy this morning. Now I have to unfollow my own thread.

What are you looking for?

I would presume those CSO figures relate to immigration irrespective of nationality, and includes Irish. During the recession emigration increased while stock remained static so there were fewer people to buy, and fewer people who could afford to. Now that trend has reversed, but again stock has stayed relatively static so fewer people selling, more people buying.

You started a thread to get opinions on the question you asked, it’s pretty rude to then take the piss when people reply.

L1011 · 23-11-2019 1:05pm

L1011 wrote: »

Take the immigration talk elsewhere

Ahem. Should be cards flying like that old Royal Mail Christmas ad now, and there will be if the immigration stuff continues.

beauf · 23-11-2019 1:18pm

I dunno what the op is looking for the whole supply thing has been talked to death on these forums.

Seems like people think the supply and demand and problems within the construction industry don't apply to them.

If you want to encourage action you don't tax the heck out it. The govt is primarily encouraging external investment. That is not aligned to the countries need.

Remember this when the elections come around.

Geuze · 23-11-2019 11:17pm

The costs of building are high, yes, but not related to taxes:

(1) very high cost of land - indeed, land taxes would help reduce the cost of sites

(2) high cost of finance - even though the ECB rate is 0%, property developers are paying 5-6% for senior debt, much more for mezzanine finance

(3) high profit margins, related to risk

beauf · 24-11-2019 12:30am

Got ahead of myself...

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/construction-accounts-for-less-than-half-the-cost-of-building-a-house-34728466.html

Mrs OBumble · 24-11-2019 1:25am

what_traffic wrote: »

Agree in established areas. How far West is the key? Established areas very little on offer - Availability in KnocknaCarra is pretty high though especially for 4 bed.

Just remembered this comment.

If the OP is looking for Galway west but not as west as Knockers, there's another factor to be aware of.

In some parts of this area, houses which are sold aren't marketed publically. No signs. No advertising. Instead, agents handle things discretely, sounding out prospective purchasers who are acceptable to the rest of the estate.

Geuze · 24-11-2019 3:29am

beauf wrote: »

Got ahead of myself...

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/construction-accounts-for-less-than-half-the-cost-of-building-a-house-34728466.html

Yes, look at the high cost of finance 20k per house, should be maybe 5k.

Profit margin of 38k per house, 10k would be enough.

Site costs 57.5k, if we could get that down to 10k, that would make house cheaper.

We could knock 70k off costs.

riclad · 24-11-2019 2:15pm

builders in dublin are saying the profit on building a house is too small,
if house is in the 250k range.
maybe builders could get tax credits fro building in citys where there is high demand but sites are very expensive .
by the way the government owns loads of land all around dublin.
Builders in new north inner city development where the old flats will be knocked
down will be getting the site for zero cost.
how does one reduce site cost down to 10k, ?
In dublin or other area.s

Kleine Hundin · 25-11-2019 4:47pm

I don't think an 11% margin is so bad for a company creating value. There is risk involved for the developer and I'm surprised it is set at that level and not higher.

The finance cost at 6% is high in today's low interest environment with the ECB at 0%. Financing should be cheaper for property developers which is one of the recommendations "Providing a State-supported development bank to lower the cost of funding home construction. This could save €12,000 from the cost of constructing the average home"

Steer55 · 25-11-2019 5:00pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Not that I'm a seller or in your area, but if I was only thinking about selling my house, I wouldn't put it on now until the 3rd week in Jan at the earliest.

I wouldnt expect to see much new to market between now and then. If by end of Feb nothing is stirring, then you're right.

we live in an age of instant communication, apps and property updates if a property is in the right location, priced right, it will sell no matter the month its advertised.

what_traffic · 26-11-2019 10:03am

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

In some parts of this area, houses which are sold aren't marketed publically. No signs. No advertising. Instead, agents handle things discretely, sounding out prospective purchasers who are acceptable to the rest of the estate.

How much we talking about for this extra special service?

Mrs OBumble · 26-11-2019 10:45am

what_traffic wrote: »

How much we talking about for this extra special service?

No idea. As a blow-in, I'm unlikely to be introduced to the agents who do this. And I don't own a property to sell.

what_traffic · 26-11-2019 12:05pm

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

If the OP is looking for Galway west but not as west as Knockers, there's another factor to be aware of.

In some parts of this area, houses which are sold aren't marketed publically. No signs. No advertising. Instead, agents handle things discretely, sounding out prospective purchasers who are acceptable to the rest of the estate.

Whats your source then for the above? or did you work for one of the Galway City Auctioneers in the past?

fago · 26-11-2019 1:56pm

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

No idea. As a blow-in, I'm unlikely to be introduced to the agents who do this. And I don't own a property to sell.

As someone who was actively looking, I'm not sure this really holds water.
Unless its such a top secret service that the properties don't even end up on the property price register.

I've viewed 4-5 beds in the west of city, but almost everything in Salthill will be in the fixer upper category, and 400K plus. There's been plenty of withdrawals/didn't make AMV at the ODJ auction over the last 6 months in the same category.

kala85 · 26-11-2019 2:18pm

fago wrote: »

As someone who was actively looking, I'm not sure this really holds water.
Unless its such a top secret service that the properties don't even end up on the property price register.

I've viewed 4-5 beds in the west of city, but almost everything in Salthill will be in the fixer upper category, and 400K plus. There's been plenty of withdrawals/didn't make AMV at the ODJ auction over the last 6 months in the same category.

Is this a sign that the market is slowing down or that people have reached a ceiling in what they can afford.

SozBbz · 26-11-2019 2:47pm

Steer55 wrote: »

we live in an age of instant communication, apps and property updates if a property is in the right location, priced right, it will sell no matter the month its advertised.

I don't agree. At least you'd be limiting your market.

People are preoccupied with Christmas from November onwards, then feel poor in January as its typically 5/6 weeks since they've last been paid they have spent heavily in December.

Also, have you looked outside? The weather is non stop miserable, the evenings are closing in and everything is just grey and damp. If you want to do evening viewings, they're going to be in the dark.

So you've a smaller pool of buyers and your house won't look its best. You might be able to get a buyer, but are you maximising your sale price by selling in the middle of winter? Doubt it.

Things are the way they are for a reason and technology doesnt overcome what I've outlined above.

Eric Cartman · 26-11-2019 2:56pm

Kleine Hundin wrote: »

I don't think an 11% margin is so bad for a company creating value. There is risk involved for the developer and I'm surprised it is set at that level and not higher.

The finance cost at 6% is high in today's low interest environment with the ECB at 0%. Financing should be cheaper for property developers which is one of the recommendations "Providing a State-supported development bank to lower the cost of funding home construction. This could save €12,000 from the cost of constructing the average home"

Just expidite reposessions, germanys rates average 2.3% on mortgages , its the inability of a bank to reposess defaulted properties has caused our high rates and nothing else

Mrs OBumble · 26-11-2019 4:58pm

what_traffic wrote: »

Whats your source then for the above? or did you work for one of the Galway City Auctioneers in the past?

I've been told by locals that's the way they do things: Infrequent sales to people intending to stay long term.

And I've seen an agent advertise the service once.

Kleine Hundin · 26-11-2019 7:36pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Just expidite reposessions, germanys rates average 2.3% on mortgages , its the inability of a bank to reposess defaulted properties has caused our high rates and nothing else

With the right conditions you can get 0.5% fixed for ten years in Germany. LTV of about 70% and buying in one of the big cities in Germany. any house that comes on the market is rare and do uppers or luxury villas. The market is mostly are apartments. Unless you move further out but commuting is doable and more comfortable than the Dublin region

The lower interest just puts up prices as it's all about the repayment and borrow more.

I've seen houses in Ireland taken by the banks and left empty for years which just further devalues the house as it gets neglected or vandalised.

TheSheriff · 27-11-2019 1:05am

SozBbz wrote: »

I don't agree. At least you'd be limiting your market.

People are preoccupied with Christmas from November onwards, then feel poor in January as its typically 5/6 weeks since they've last been paid they have spent heavily in December.

Also, have you looked outside? The weather is non stop miserable, the evenings are closing in and everything is just grey and damp. If you want to do evening viewings, they're going to be in the dark.

So you've a smaller pool of buyers and your house won't look its best. You might be able to get a buyer, but are you maximising your sale price by selling in the middle of winter? Doubt it.

Things are the way they are for a reason and technology doesnt overcome what I've outlined above.

I disagree with this.

As FTB we have viewings arranged the first two weeks in December, and plan to view right up to Christmas.

A 6 week payday gap in Jan will have zero impact on our mentality of buying a house ? Why would it? We are mortgage ready etc.

Have friends in a similar scenario, multiple couples, all still actively looking every weekend.

27-11-2019 2:04am

riclad wrote: »

builders in dublin are saying the profit on building a house is too small,
if house is in the 250k range.
maybe builders could get tax credits fro building in citys where there is high demand but sites are very expensive .

Ignore that rubbish, of course they're gonna say the profit is too small. Pre-crash, they were raking it in and started cutting corners to complete builds and move on to the next big project. Then priory Hall happened, and all of a sudden the new regs came in, which meant they had to pay people to sign off on plans and builds (which they used to sign off on themseleve). Now, this 'extra expense' was eating into their bottom line.

Of course, If you compare profits from now to 2007 it looks bad. That's because the cowboys who were signing off on everything weren't been held accountable, so didn't give a rats ass.

I mean, take a look at the Home Bond scheme and what happened with pyrite. This is mandatory insurance which is factored into the cost of a new build in case anything goes wrong. Quarries were selling stone blocks and cement that was not tested if it was fit for purpose, due to pressure from the builders, so essentially everything built in Meath, Kildare and North Dublin within a certain time frame is a ticking time bomb.

What did the Home Bond crowd do?....... Refuse to cover it.

If I'm not mistaken, it is STILL mandatory to pay it today.

what_traffic · 27-11-2019 1:59pm

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

I've been told by locals that's the way they do things: Infrequent sales to people intending to stay long term.

Dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi!

Where all the houses gone?

Comments