Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

Hurrache · 15-01-2020 10:39pm

Zaph wrote: »

The Greens got two seats from areas covered by Dublin West in the local elections (Castleknock and Ongar). I wonder could this be the year that Roderic O'Gorman finally wins a Dáil seat? Roderic himself topped the poll by a huge margin in the Castleknock LEA. The only thing that might cause him an issue is that there was no Green candidate in the Blanchardstown–Mulhuddart LEA, I'm guessing because the party believed they would have little or no support there.

It'll be great to see him get a seat, he's incredibly hard working as a councillor beyond his lea.

The problem I see is that other parties are muddying the waters against the greens saying they want to carbon tax you to the hilt and take away your 'freedom' to drive and all that nonsense.

Caranica · 15-01-2020 10:49pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Not that I'm aware of, no.
He did vote for the legislation though whilst other FFers abstained, so it's somewhat reasonable to infer that that is his position. He is probably more a follower than a leader though, and knows which way the wind blows.

Will be interesting to see his trajectory though in future FF governments - it struck me whilst speaking to him that he is likely to be a Cabinet Minister over the next 20 years, maybe even the top job some day if the chips fall his way. :eek:

Whether he voted for the legislation or not does not in any way excuse the fact that he voted against having the referendum in the first place!

Nijmegen · 15-01-2020 11:03pm

rockatansky wrote: »

Surprised to see some saying Coppinger will be in for a fight for her seat. Whenever there's a piece on the news relating to housing or social issues she seems to be the go to choice for a far left comment/interview by the media. She seems to have a lot of exposure.

Not actually sure that helps her given that she has not one positive thing to say about anything. The LE results for her party tell their own story. Her baseline to work from is ridiculously small.

Remind me · 15-01-2020 11:13pm

quickbeam wrote: »

What other parties did McManus have?
What was the mistake SF made previously?

He was previously FF and apologies if I am wrong but I thought he was elsewhere before. Possibly independent.

SF did not go near Coolmine, Delwood, Glenville down towards Castleknock from what I could see. He was 1/100 to get a seat and they completely F’d up. Should not have let Coppinger get the seat.

Remind me · 16-01-2020 12:21am

Any word if Ciaran Cuffe is going to contest or is he staying in Europe?

Roderic is the Green alternate for Europe

Murt10 · 16-01-2020 1:53am

Remind me wrote: »

Any word if Ciaran Cuffe is going to contest or is he staying in Europe?

Roderic is the Green alternate for Europe

What on earth would we want that prat Cuffe back from Europe for. After all he single handedly brought in the new changes to the speed limit, which will criminalize most of us, at the same time as enriching the insurance companies. Soon we'll be imited to 18mph all over Dublin.
The only regret I have about him being there is that he's being extremely well paid for it.

Remind me · 16-01-2020 9:25am

Murt10 wrote: »

What on earth would we want that prat Cuffe back from Europe for. After all he single handedly brought in the new changes to the speed limit, which will criminalize most of us, at the same time as enriching the insurance companies. Soon we'll be imited to 18mph all over Dublin.
The only regret I have about him being there is that he's being extremely well paid for it.

So you don’t know?

On a side note as someone who lives in a residential area and has young kids I wish the speed limit was 30KPH and not the 50 it still is.

LoonyLovegood · 16-01-2020 11:18am

Putting it out there I'm a member of the Social Democrats and campaigning for Aengus O Maolain, before I post anything!

But I can't see SF getting a seat, rumours of the amount of money HQ spent here last time and they still didn't get one when they were getting huge amounts elsewhere, I can't see it happen. The Greens will push Roderic forward big time, and I'd love to see him as a TD, I just hope he doesn't do what Leo did and go from being a fantastic councillor to awful TD for the area.

Nijmegen · 16-01-2020 12:40pm

LoonyLovegood wrote: »

Putting it out there I'm a member of the Social Democrats and campaigning for Aengus O Maolain, before I post anything!

But I can't see SF getting a seat, rumours of the amount of money HQ spent here last time and they still didn't get one when they were getting huge amounts elsewhere, I can't see it happen. The Greens will push Roderic forward big time, and I'd love to see him as a TD, I just hope he doesn't do what Leo did and go from being a fantastic councillor to awful TD for the area.

The sense with Leo was always that he wanted to be a TD and reclaim a FG seat in DW, and as a Councillor would attend the opening of a packet of crisps to raise his profile.

With Roderic he has been fighting the good fight for a long time on the council, I wouldn't personally see him going native the minute he got to the Dail.

The Sinn Fein / Dublin West story has long been that the socialists hoover up enough of their vote to keep them out on the basis that they're just not transfer friendly from the other parties. If the eliminations went right and Ruth C was to fire 3-5,000 votes into the ether for transfers below Donnelly, he could take the seat.

AlanG · 16-01-2020 4:36pm

Past30Now wrote: »

Traditionally FF & FG Taoisigh (sp?) were able to bring in a running mate at a general election. The best example being Bertie bringing in Royston or Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central a number of years ago, despite them getting c940 first preference votes. This is Leo's first election as Taoiseach. Any chance he could hoover up enough votes to get Emer Currie across the line?

I don't think Leo has anything near the puling power of Berite. Bertie was on a completely different level in how he worked the constituency. When he was taoiseach he would still call to the door two or tree times a year and he muist have got mass four or five times every Sunday.

I think a huge amount of natural FG supporters are turned off by Leo and his focus on social media above social interaction. He doesn't seem to have empathy with or an understanding of working families. Personally I think the FG TD's made a big mistake by ignoring their membership and going for Leo above Coveney as leader.

blanch152 · 18-01-2020 12:31pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

The sense with Leo was always that he wanted to be a TD and reclaim a FG seat in DW, and as a Councillor would attend the opening of a packet of crisps to raise his profile.

With Roderic he has been fighting the good fight for a long time on the council, I wouldn't personally see him going native the minute he got to the Dail.

The Sinn Fein / Dublin West story has long been that the socialists hoover up enough of their vote to keep them out on the basis that they're just not transfer friendly from the other parties. If the eliminations went right and Ruth C was to fire 3-5,000 votes into the ether for transfers below Donnelly, he could take the seat.

True, O’Gorman could take Burtons seat while Donnelly takes Coppingers.

Caranica · 18-01-2020 1:02pm

Met O'Gorman last night, he said it's now or never for him. Would be a lot easier to vote for if he was an independent imo. He does fantastic work and is a good guy.

But some of the stuff coming out of the Green Party is barking mad, and urban centric. As someone originally from a small town in Munster, some of their policies stand out as ignorant of the realities of living in the middle of nowhere.

Polar101 · 18-01-2020 1:57pm

Caranica wrote: »

But some of the stuff coming out of the Green Party is barking mad, and urban centric. As someone originally from a small town in Munster, some of their policies stand out as ignorant of the realities of living in the middle of nowhere.

You're probably right, the Greens are a "city party". But then again O'Gorman is not running in a small town in Munster, but in Dublin.

Caranica · 18-01-2020 2:19pm

Polar101 wrote: »

You're probably right, the Greens are a "city party". But then again O'Gorman is not running in a small town in Munster, but in Dublin.

Yes but a vote for Roderic is a vote for the green party, that's my problem.

Nijmegen · 18-01-2020 4:38pm

I agree that the Green Party in Ireland has its fair share of fringe elements - remember when their demand to keep the government going during the recession ended up in a conference with people demanding the hares be looked after while the country was falling down around our ears. I suppose in a certain way more noble than certain Tipperary TDs of tribunal fame demanding more temporal things...

Anyway, the thing I do like about the greens getting votes is that you then see a notable uptick in environmentally friendly policies from all other parties.

Hurrache · 19-01-2020 1:34am

Caranica wrote: »

But some of the stuff coming out of the Green Party is barking mad, and urban centric. As someone originally from a small town in Munster, some of their policies stand out as ignorant of the realities of living in the middle of nowhere.

I don't think that's necessarily true, I've noticed it's a brush their opposition are painting them with but their policies aren't that off the wall.

As for fringe elements, it certainly doesn't stand out from the crowd in that department anyway, in fact you could argue that FF/FG have relatively more headers.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 11:15am

It seems that Peter Casey is going to run in Dublin West.

holly_johnson · 19-01-2020 11:20am

hotmail.com wrote: »

It seems that Peter Casey is going to run in Dublin West.

Where did you hear that?

ongarite · 19-01-2020 11:22am

holly_johnson wrote: »

Where did you hear that?

One of the Sunday papers had a quote from him saying he wants to run against Leo.
Probably just attention seeking as usual from him.

Remind me · 19-01-2020 11:51pm

ongarite wrote: »

One of the Sunday papers had a quote from him saying he wants to run against Leo.
Probably just attention seeking as usual from him.

Saw that - I thought he was signed up to run in Donegal?

Of what benefit would it be? He presumably and hopefully would not get a seat here but in Donegal he would have quite a good chance.

He obviously swept up quite a few votes in the Presidential following controversial quotes but he offers nothing.

If he was to run he would do damage to Donnelly and Coppinger IMO.

Larbre34 · 20-01-2020 12:52am

ongarite wrote: »

One of the Sunday papers had a quote from him saying he wants to run against Leo.
Probably just attention seeking as usual from him.

He thinks by running in Donegal that he is actually running against Varadkar to be Taoiseach, as if he will waltz into the Dáil and lead a rainbow government to the promised land.

It just shows what an absolute unreconstructed tulip he truly is.

Remind me · 20-01-2020 9:17am

Larbre34 wrote: »

He thinks by running in Donegal that he is actually running against Varadkar to be Taoiseach, as if he will waltz into the Dáil and lead a rainbow government to the promised land.

It just shows what an absolute unreconstructed tulip he truly is.

That was my thinking but the articles do state Dublin West. Possibly lazy journalism misquoting him.

is_that_so · 20-01-2020 9:21am

Larbre34 wrote: »

He thinks by running in Donegal that he is actually running against Varadkar to be Taoiseach, as if he will waltz into the Dáil and lead a rainbow government to the promised land.

It just shows what an absolute unreconstructed tulip he truly is.

He also seems to bizarrely imagine that a GE will as easy to gain traction in as the previous attempts and that by spouting what he does people will automatically vote for him. He's in for a rude awakening and I do hope he loses his deposit.

bkeane · 20-01-2020 10:11am

Is Joan Burton even running for the election this time? - I have not seen any posters up for her anywhere.

Nijmegen · 20-01-2020 10:15am

bkeane wrote: »

Is Joan Burton even running for the election this time? - I have not seen any posters up for her anywhere.

She is, been out at Roselawn (the real center of the political universe in Dublin West...) canvassing.

jonnybravo · 20-01-2020 10:23am

bkeane wrote: »

Is Joan Burton even running for the election this time? - I have not seen any posters up for her anywhere.

Thought that the other day that she must not be putting up some then I seen the odd one yesterday and about 5 or 6 in one place. Really strange. She's going to be under pressure.

I heard someone on Ivan Yates call it for Leo, Chambers, Roderic and then a fight for the last one between SF, Coppinger and Burton.

Former Former · 20-01-2020 10:34am

Remind me wrote: »

That was my thinking but the articles do state Dublin West. Possibly lazy journalism misquoting him.

The "Donegal Daily" had an article stating that Casey was considering running in both Donegal and Dublin West... which Casey himself then retweeted.

It's all bollocks of course, the guy would do or say anything for a bit of publicity.

Remind me · 20-01-2020 11:27am

jonnybravo wrote: »

Thought that the other day that she must not be putting up some then I seen the odd one yesterday and about 5 or 6 in one place. Really strange. She's going to be under pressure.

I heard someone on Ivan Yates call it for Leo, Chambers, Roderic and then a fight for the last one between SF, Coppinger and Burton.

Burton’s hope is Donnelly and Coppinger splitting the vote and her sneaking in

glossy · 20-01-2020 11:32am

bkeane wrote: »

Is Joan Burton even running for the election this time? - I have not seen any posters up for her anywhere.

Seen a few on the Navan rd.

is_that_so · 20-01-2020 2:14pm

Remind me wrote: »

Burton’s hope is Donnelly and Coppinger splitting the vote and her sneaking in

Both may be down in support this time anyway and with that Donegal lad allegedly throwing his hat in the ring, it might bode well for Burton.

A Knight of Ireland · 20-01-2020 6:33pm

bkeane wrote: »

Is Joan Burton even running for the election this time? - I have not seen any posters up for her anywhere.

She is indeed. Had her at my door yesterday. Same Old rhetoric. Nothing to add

wildlifeboy · 21-01-2020 10:45am

jonnybravo wrote: »

Thought that the other day that she must not be putting up some then I seen the odd one yesterday and about 5 or 6 in one place. Really strange. She's going to be under pressure.

I heard someone on Ivan Yates call it for Leo, Chambers, Roderic and then a fight for the last one between SF, Coppinger and Burton.

Chambers lol who in their right mind would vote for that clown?

Zaph · 21-01-2020 10:52am

wildlifeboy wrote: »

Chambers lol who in their right mind would vote for that clown?

There is a significant demographic who will always vote FF, regardless of who the candidate is. Also apart from the Aontu candidate McManus, there's a lack of what would be considered options for conservative voters. Those two factors alone will see Chambers comfortably reelected.

AlanG · 21-01-2020 11:22am

wildlifeboy wrote: »

Chambers lol who in their right mind would vote for that clown?

In my area Jack Chambers calls around to the doors 2 or 3 times a year. He always engages people and listens to them. I know it's easy to do from opposition and fits in with the FF something for everyone approach but it is likely to pay off. Lots of people who dislike FF think that Chambers is actually a nice guy when they meet him. If he gets some of those votes along with the staunch FF supporters he will have no problem. Politicians who come across as clowns are usually the cleverest of them all and are badly underestimated by their opponents, you just need to look at Kerry, the UK or USA to see the rewards they can get.

As Charlie said of Bertie in his anorak and shabby suits "He's the man. He's the best, the most skilful, the most devious, and the most cunning of them all."

beauf · 21-01-2020 11:42am

I'll give Jack Chambers credit in that you do seem him active in the area. Some of the others you never see till election.

Remind me · 21-01-2020 12:16pm

wildlifeboy wrote: »

Chambers lol who in their right mind would vote for that clown?

Thousand considering he is a sitting TD and along with O’Gorman the most active elected representative in the area.

Former Former · 21-01-2020 1:18pm

Chambers is guaranteed election because Brian Lenihan. It's an odd situation.

A Knight of Ireland · 21-01-2020 1:37pm

This should not happen no matter what side of the fence you are on

https://twitter.com/BrophyTomas/status/1219593302032470016/photo/1

Remind me · 21-01-2020 1:42pm

Former Former wrote: »

Chambers is guaranteed election because Brian Lenihan. It's an odd situation.

Why?

asteroids over berlin · 21-01-2020 1:46pm

AlanG wrote: »

In my area Jack Chambers calls around to the doors 2 or 3 times a year. He always engages people and listens to them. I know it's easy to do from opposition and fits in with the FF something for everyone approach but it is likely to pay off. Lots of people who dislike FF think that Chambers is actually a nice guy when they meet him. If he gets some of those votes along with the staunch FF supporters he will have no problem. Politicians who come across as clowns are usually the cleverest of them all and are badly underestimated by their opponents, you just need to look at Kerry, the UK or USA to see the rewards they can get.

As Charlie said of Bertie in his anorak and shabby suits "He's the man. He's the best, the most skilful, the most devious, and the most cunning of them all."

his like a big kid, even watching him in the dail and he looksas if he thinks its great craic, not a chance i'd vote for him

Remind me · 21-01-2020 2:01pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

This should not happen no matter what side of the fence you are on

https://twitter.com/BrophyTomas/status/1219593302032470016/photo/1

Agreed.

A lot of posters were pulled down around Roselawn and Delwood on Friday night/Saturday morning.

asteroids over berlin · 21-01-2020 3:22pm

how is Coppinger, always somewhat ignored her but kudos to her for being at the FAI hearing and asking the questions. Is it Curry too, is she decent? Competitive area and indeed as a former FF, i find it difficult to consideer them now, will probably go Leo, i think his fairly decent, not sure of 2nd and 3rd though

Remind me · 21-01-2020 3:36pm

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

how is Coppinger, always somewhat ignored her but kudos to her for being at the FAI hearing and asking the questions. Is it Curry too, is she decent? Competitive area and indeed as a former FF, i find it difficult to consideer them now, will probably go Leo, i think his fairly decent, not sure of 2nd and 3rd though

You slag Chambers for looking like ‘he is having great craic’ in the Dail and then say you will vote for Leo. Logical.

A Knight of Ireland · 21-01-2020 3:54pm

Remind me wrote: »

Agreed.

A lot of posters were pulled down around Roselawn and Delwood on Friday night/Saturday morning.

Yeah, I saw a good few SF posters torn down

A Knight of Ireland · 21-01-2020 3:58pm

Just on the whole postering of Dublin 15. I thought there were supposed to be guidelines about how posters are to be erected? It seems that there is a "Free for All" and "Anything Goes" when it comes to poster locations. Every candidate has put posters up in very dangerous plac es which is extremely irresponsible. And BTW.....Leo was the first to put them up around Dublin 15 in dangerous locations.

Zaph · 21-01-2020 5:11pm

Posters are supposed to be a minimum of 6 feet above the ground. I know someone who contacted Aontu about Edward McManus' posters on Hartstown Road as they're nearly on the ground they're so low. They replied and said they'd take care of them, so we'll see what happens.

AlanG · 21-01-2020 5:41pm

Posters do seem worse this time than previous elections. Perhaps Leo's team getting caught putting up his illegally before the election writ was passed gave others the green light to ignore the rules.

Weepsie · 21-01-2020 7:42pm

Remind me wrote: »

You slag Chambers for looking like ‘he is having great craic’ in the Dail and then say you will vote for Leo. Logical.

Chambers or Leo. You're voting for the same nonsense. Neither seem to have an original thought in their head and are very, very managed.

mikemac2 · 21-01-2020 7:56pm

Roderic O´Gorman is a top guy and very active locally. I hope he gets in

antimatterx wrote: »

Quick question. Would you not have expected catherine noone to do much better last time out getting Leo's transfers

During that campaign Catherine Noone never once bothered to update her website. Some stories about what she did around Dun Laoighre and not a single thing about Dublin West.

She pitched herself to the local FG organisers partly as FG had to hit a gender quota and shure select me, why not

I did see her and her team around Navan Rd many nights but I don't know about other areas.

She herself was shocked at her low vote and later put on twitter that Dublin West was very left leaning and she never had a chance sob. Was kinda of a bitter signoff, well goodbye so

No thanks to the 1,000 plus who gave you a vote

Remind me · 21-01-2020 8:08pm

Weepsie wrote: »

Chambers or Leo. You're voting for the same nonsense. Neither seem to have an original thought in their head and are very, very managed.

My point exactly.

Chambers has had a good opposition portfolio in Defence because Paul Kehoe is very weak as Defence Minister and Chambers has constantly called him out and successfully raised the profile of the issues in the Defence forces.

Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

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