€3k challenge

wb · 22-02-2006 1:21pm #1

The Rules:

Starting off with a €1000 bank, the goal is to get to €3000

My selections will be from a system that I have currently on trial.

The prices will be displayed beside the horse and will be the best betfair prices available at the time of posting (give or take 5 or 10 minutes to allow me to write the post)

I will advise the stake on a daily basis

I will record the profit and loss assuming that betfair are charging 5% commission.

This system is on trial, so follow it at your peril!!!

Ok then, here goes:

Todays selections.

All have a €25 Stake

Lingfield:

1.40 - Tafiya - 1.53
2.10 - lady bahia - 19.0
2.40 - Pauvic - 4.8
3.10 - Olivino - 7.4
3.10 - Sugitani - 13.0
3.40 - Babcary - 8.2
4.10 - Chocolate boy - 11.0
4.40 - Sir Sandrovitch - 16.5

Ludlow:

2.00 - Giants Rock - 12.0
3.00 - Slick - 11.0
3.30 - Amarula Ridge - 2.84
4.00 - Napoleon - 14.5
5.00 - Keswick - 3.65

Punchestown:

2.15 - reinedoff - 11.0
2.45 - vintage gold - 8.2
3.15 - bakers bridge - 4.5
5.15 - focus point - 6.2

MBC · 22-02-2006 1:38pm

Best of Luck buddy, hope all goes well. This should be interesting!

wb · 22-02-2006 1:46pm

MBC wrote:

Best of Luck buddy, hope all goes well. This should be interesting!

Cheers,

As I say, it is a system on trial, so I would not advise people to follow it yet.

It is in paper profit for about 2 months, The system has a low strike rate. It often went 15 or 20 horses without a win, but on the other side of the scale, it throws up the odd long priced shot to balance things out. on paper, it is so far so good, watch it go t*ts up now that it is made public!

finnpark · 22-02-2006 3:07pm

Could I join this with a similar bank but with less tips?

wb · 22-02-2006 3:55pm

finnpark wrote:

Could I join this with a similar bank but with less tips?

Yeah, but you may as well use this thread, otherwise the forum could get messy

fade2black · 22-02-2006 3:59pm

It seems like it's just going to be the two of you so FinnPark may as well start his own thread, (to keep your own progress neat and tidy).

finnpark · 22-02-2006 4:08pm

Ok , I will use a different thread.

I won't have a tip every day. Had Fier Normand today but nevermind, will start tomorrow.

wb · 22-02-2006 6:26pm

Oh dear

A frustrating day as a few horses came close and were placed, but not much joy otherwise. One winner, but it was not one of the systems long shots. Anyway.........

Lingfield:
1.40 - Tafiya - 1.53 - 2nd
2.10 - lady bahia - 19.0 - Lost
2.40 - Pauvic - 4.8 Won
3.10 - Olivino - 7.4 Lost
3.10 - Sugitani - 13.0 4th
3.40 - Babcary - 8.2 3rd Lost
4.10 - Chocolate boy - 11.0 - Lost
4.40 - Sir Sandrovitch - 16.5 - Lost

Ludlow:
2.00 - Giants Rock - 12.0 - 3rd
3.00 - Slick - 11.0 - Lost
3.30 - Amarula Ridge - 2.84 - Lost
4.00 - Napoleon - 14.5 - Fell
5.00 - Keswick - 3.65 - Lost

Punchestown:
2.15 - reinedoff - 11.0 - Lost
2.45 - vintage gold - 8.2 - Lost
3.15 - bakers bridge - 4.5 - 2nd
5.15 - focus point - 6.2 - Lost

Todays P&L -€309.75
Total P&L -€309.75

Bank : €690.25

finnpark · 22-02-2006 6:38pm

Did you ever try laying? I have been laying tipsters left right and centre for a few months now with great success. Today was brilliant.

Better luck tomorrow!

wb · 22-02-2006 6:39pm

yep, I lay quite a lot. I run my own system, and also use a supscription. It requires a lot of time, I watch the prices through the day, and I usually place the bets near the off. Sometimes I will trade out too, so therefore it would be no good posting selections here, as I could only do that after the race finishes - and that would be aftertiming - something I find really annoying

wb · 23-02-2006 3:52pm

I hope for a better day today. I will update this post through the day with more selections as I do them, but for now:

Stake: £17.25

Haydock:
3.20 - Undeniable - 5.5
3.55 - Tempsford - 10.5

Huntingdon:
3.30 - Raffaello - 3.75
5.10 - Can't Spell - 110

Southwell:
3.45 - Trance - 5.8
4.20 - Scuba - 3.7
4.50 - Fiore di Bosco - 13.5

Thurles:
3.45 Rog 8.2
4.15 Wont leave an oat 3.6

wb · 23-02-2006 6:12pm

Another disaster of a day, with the best results being three horses coming second.

Im constantly working on systems, and out of about 15 or 20 I have on triall at any given time, there is probrally only one or two that will be a winner long term. I think this is one of the duds!

I'll give it another few days, but it looks like this system is for the bin. It had been in paper profit for a while, but after some careful scrutiny last night, im finding some flaws. A few dozen more selections will probrally prove it should be in the bin.

As I say, I'll give it a bit more time, but I don't think this system will allow me to give up the dayjob just yet!

Well, you gotta try these things, otherwise you will never know/learn

bank €535

masterK · 24-02-2006 8:53am

Why don't you not post some details of the system and how it works and how you arrive at your selections, I'm sure there would be plenty here who can provide feedback. There are a couple of things that strike me about your selections, firstly the sheer volume of them, I cannot see how any system or selection process can be in profit with such a huge selection of races every day. If you have been trading on paper for a while you will probably have seen that certain race types/conditions etc. where the system is more profitable. The second observation is the fact that you stake the same on each selection no matter how strongly it is fancied. Do you keep a record of all selections you make?

I've use a system that I developed myself but record the details of each selection so that I can filter to see what race types and conditions it is most successful in, I find I do really well in Handicap Chases class 4 upwards but do quite poorly in a lot of novice races, therefore I know where to focus my bets. Since it is a ratings system I can vary my bets according to the rating of a horse compared to the rest of the field, so to have smaller bets on a horse that is only barely top of my ratings and larger bets on a horse that comes out a mile clear.

wb · 24-02-2006 10:42am

Thanks for the feedback masterK. It is basically a Jockey trainer system based on certain stats and criteria, but I don't think it is going to work out anyway.

As I say, Im big into systems, and some people will know me from other forums where I have a sucessful lay system running after a lot of selections. But for every sucessfull system, usually dozens are binned, this will probrally be one of them. Regarding the amount of selections, If the selection meets the criteria, it gets backed, so I don't really control the amount, but it is a worry that so many of them are fitting. As I said, I scrutinised the system and it has more than a few flaws.
The stake is 2.5% of the bank on each selection, but as I cant update this race by race, it is 2.5% of the bank as it stands before racing. As I say, It looks like one of the unsucessful systems, so Im not too worried about it, and probably won't be spending much more time on it. I'll keep it going for another while, but it is not looking good.
Im currently working on a couple of other systems at the moment, one of which I may need some help with, so I will post it when I fine tune it a bit and see what everyone thinks.

By the way, yes all my selections are recorded in a spreadsheet, including track, going, distance etc. and after a few hundred selections, I isolate the winners and try to find trends

I'm not sue if I will get time to do any selections today for this, but I should have some over the weekend
Thanks,

Wbailey

wb · 24-02-2006 3:19pm

I will add to this in a minute, but for now:

Wolverhampton
2.25 - Countrywide Belle - 1.47

wb · 24-02-2006 3:39pm

I should have stated earlier that todays stakes are €13.38

the rest of the selections:

san 3.45 San Tarlac - 1.82

war 3.25 Monte Cinto - 4.2
4.30 Altasonic - 2.88

wolv 4.10 Joy and Pain - 4.9
4.45 Lady Grey - 2.46
5.45 Orpendonna - 14.0

wb · 24-02-2006 7:57pm

2.25 - Wolv -Countrywide Belle - 1.47

3.45 San - Tarlac - 1.82

3.25 - War - Monte Cinto - 4.2

4.30 - War - Altasonic - 2.88

4.10 - Wolv Joy and Pain - 4.9 2nd
4.45 - Wolv Lady Grey - 2.46

5.45 - Wolv Orpendonna - 14.0

Todays loss £18.57

Bank £516.43

wagerwell · 25-02-2006 12:02am

Can anybody not back this horse tommorow. The explaination is that he lost interest last time. Looking at past form he's the cheltenham money.

wb · 25-02-2006 4:03am

Ok, I've reviewed the system and it has to many holes in it. Sorry for wasting time here lads, but I'm not going to continue with a system that I now know is not working. I hope you lot don't think that I'm a timewaster, and indeed some of you 'know' me from other forums where I have sucessful systems running. This is one that wont work though. I have a new one on triall at the moment, and may be about soon to get some advice on it.
Thanks

THE END

finnpark · 26-02-2006 11:27pm

I will start my effort this week coming.

Everyone has losing runs so don't worry about it, quality rather than quantity may be the best option though.

€3k challenge

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