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House prices in Charlesland.

  • 22-06-2007 5:13pm
    #1
    jenc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 31 ✭


    Has anyone had their house valued recently. Are house prices in Charlesland really going down?

    My friend was talking to a real estate agent who was trying to sell him one of the 3 beds and was explaining that they are about 10% cheaper than this time last year. Not sure if he's just trying to wind me up or not so would be interested to hear if anyone else has got their house valued.


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Comments

  • #2
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    3 beds peaked at about 555K and thats where they stayed. 2 bed houses about 405k and same. A ten per cent drop would be about -50K. I dont think so! estate agent bs. I think also that we are a first time buyer estate and the stamp duty uncertainty will have stalled things. Personally I am not worried and would expect Charlesland values ti increase 3-4% this year.


  • #3
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    Prices listed were from myhome.ie


  • #4
    woodser
    Closed Accounts Posts: 124 ✭✭woodser


    The mid terrace 2 beds are holding their value at between 415 and 425.The mid terrace 3s are down from about 535 to 520 and the end terrace 3 beds are holding at about 555.The last mid terrace 3 bed to sell last month fetched 525 with an attic conversion and and end without got 555.


  • #5
    Wineman
    Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭Wineman


    Arent the mid terrace 3 beds bigger than the end of terrace houses?


  • #6
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    Look the Emperor is wearing no clothes!! Residential property prices have dropped. By 10 % ?? I dont think so, but they may in time. Many of the prices people are trying to sell at are unrealistic now, but would not have been a year ago. The prices people are looking for and what they are getting are two very different things.

    I know sevral people working in estate agents and privatley they are saying that nothing is selling. One girl I know was let go! I was talking to sevral people in banks (family inc.), and they say people are not borrowing to buy property in Ireland, quote "its dead!". Initially I put this down to uncertianty about stamp duty, but the election is over now and nothing has changed.

    I work in the construction industry and I know that with new devolopments builders prices have dropped, or extras have been offered "for free".

    Demand for unskilled labour on building sites has dropped slightly.

    The "soft landing" is here and it is here to stay! The question is how soft will it be??


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  • #7
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    Fishdog. Stamp duty reform was only announced a day ago. I think its a bit early to say that it has had no effect. Yes of course mortgage lending is dead at present. But remember rents are going up, one in five of new home buyers is a non national and Greystones is a rather nice place to live. I live in an end of terrace and yes 555K was my estimation 5mths ago and my est today. As you say 10% depreciation is bs.


  • #8
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    Wake up and smell the coffee!!

    Hammiepeters
    Stamp duty reform was only announced a day ago.

    Correct, but new properties have no stamp duty and they are not selling either!! Ask around yourself. Im not trying to pi55 on your parade, it does not suite me I am trying to sell a property at the moment and guess what?? No offers!
    I live in an end of terrace and yes 555K was my estimation 5mths ago and my est today.

    Yeah and if you can get that for it more power to you! But look around Charlesland, have you ever seen so many properties for sale in such a small area???

    Interest rates have gone up (I know they are still low) and there are two more hikes on the way. Many people are pushed to the limit already.

    Yes I agree 10% is bs. But you have to agree that prices are no longer going up, at best they are dropping slightly.

    A property is only worth what someone is willing pay for it, not what we value it at ourselves.

    IMHO many properties in Greystones and Charlesland have been massively overpiced (my place included). The build quality is often very poor and this is not reflected in the price. I work in the industry, so I know. But things are changing and it does not suit me ether....


  • #9
    woodser
    Closed Accounts Posts: 124 ✭✭woodser


    fishdog wrote:
    Wake up and smell the coffee!!

    Hammiepeters

    Correct, but new properties have no stamp duty and they are not selling either!! Ask around yourself. Im not trying to pi55 on your parade, it does not suite me I am trying to sell a property at the moment and guess what?? No offers!



    Yeah and if you can get that for it more power to you! But look around Charlesland, have you ever seen so many properties for sale in such a small area???

    Interest rates have gone up (I know they are still low) and there are two more hikes on the way. Many people are pushed to the limit already.

    Yes I agree 10% is bs. But you have to agree that prices are no longer going up, at best they are dropping slightly.

    A property is only worth what someone is willing pay for it, not what we value it at ourselves.

    IMHO many properties in Greystones and Charlesland have been massively overpiced (my place included). The build quality is often very poor and this is not reflected in the price. I work in the industry, so I know. But things are changing and it does not suit me ether....

    Smell the coffee myarse I bought 2 2 beds and 2 3 beds in charlesland -I bought the 2 beds at 298 a piece the 3 bed mid for 353600 and end 356600.I offloaded one of the two beds after 2 weeks on the market on May 15th for 415 and the last 3 bed end to sell in Charlesland was closed on Tuesday at 555 --mine also went on he market straight after may bank holiday.So I should know what I,m talking about. Also to answer a question put above-end terrace are smaller than mid but higher value -average 15000 above mid terrace.Side access to anybody in the property game is worth a hell of a lot more than square footage.
    Charlesland values while they wont see the mid 40%s returns that they did in the last 2 years have remained buoyant and when things settle will grow at modest rates.Eden gate which is in a slightly higher bracket are reporting anywhere between 10% to 18% drops on this time last year.
    Then again nothing is at a loss in Charlesland anybody that bought in late 03 early 04 or even into early 05 has made on average 115k on a 2 bed and close to 200k on a 3 bed Which is amassive return on a relatively small investment.So it'd take a hell of a lot to drop back to 298/ 305k price of 2 bed and 350/356k price of 3 bed bought in 03/04/05 so whats all the fuss about???
    B.T.W. things have slowed down and shifting a property at the moment quickly all depends on using the right Estate agent and the right person in that Agency.


  • #10
    JupiterKid
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 12,896 Mod ✭✭✭✭JupiterKid


    The Irish property bubble is now bursting. The simple fact is that house prices have become so incredibly inflated due to reckless credit lending in recent years and speculation by investors. Does anyone really think that E400,000 for a one bed apartment is sustainable price? Now that the ECB interest rate is set to keep rising for the next year, many first time buyers can't afford to buy at the higher mortgage interest rates, even with the dangerously leveraged 40 year, 100%, interest-only packages. And there are now over 200,000 empty dwelling units lying vacant which no one is buying.

    The boom is over. House prices throughout the country are dropping and don't let vested interests like estate agents, builder or banks pretend otherwise. We could be looking at a 5 to 10 year drop in prices by up to 50%. This coming house price collapse could go into the history books as the worst in history. But don't take my word for it, here's the link to another thread with good advice:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055033806


  • #11
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    Then again nothing is at a loss in Charlesland anybody that bought in late 03 early 04 or even into early 05

    This is 2007....
    So it'd take a hell of a lot to drop back to 298/ 305k price of 2 bed and 350/356k price of 3 bed bought in 03/04/05 so whats all the fuss about???

    Some people did not buy on the 03/04/05


    This is the post at the start of the thread:
    Has anyone had their house valued recently. Are house prices in Charlesland really going down?

    My friend was talking to a real estate agent who was trying to sell him one of the 3 beds and was explaining that they are about 10% cheaper than this time last year. Not sure if he's just trying to wind me up or not so would be interested to hear if anyone else has got their house valued.


    The question is "Has anyone had their house valued recently. Are house prices in Charlesland really going down?" Answer:YES, the prices are going down!!

    You are stating that in your case you are still ahead, which Im sure is true, but that was not the question.


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  • #12
    JupiterKid
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 12,896 Mod ✭✭✭✭JupiterKid


    To see the house price drops that have been happening since this Spring, take a look at the following site - it charts Irish house price drops on the web:

    http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/


  • #13
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    Thank you woodser. fishdog you are a panic merchant. Things have slowed,sure. As I say 3-4% this year. There will not be a crash. Plenty of jobs in the region. Greystones still a nice place. Stop talking about negative qualities in the product that you are trying to sell. And there are no end of terrace 3 beds for sale in Charlesland and if there is, I'll bet its 555K min.


  • #14
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    The boom is over. House prices throughout the country are dropping and don't let vested interests like estate agents, builder or banks pretend otherwise. We could be looking at a 5 to 10 year drop in prices by up to 50%. This coming house price collapse could go into the history books as the worst in history. But don't take my word for it, here's the link to another thread with good advice:
    [/QUOTE]
    Jesus!!!! Another little ray of sunshine!


  • #15
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    Hammiepeters, I am just calling it as I see it! I just answered the question at the start of the post! You are correct, there is no reason to panic. But prices are going down!! This may not suit you but it is a fact!! It does not suit me either.

    There are still pleny of jobs, but not at the rate that there were.

    woodser is correct by stating that he has made money on the properties he is talking about. Prices would have to drop a huge amount before he would be at a loss, as he said. But the market is slowing at present and prices are dropping. The rises in prices we had seen were unsustainable. It had to end somewhere.

    I am not saying that the property market is going to crash and we are all in trouble. Prices might just become a bit more realistic.


  • #16
    CathD
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23 ✭CathD


    woodser wrote:
    B.T.W. things have slowed down and shifting a property at the moment quickly all depends on using the right Estate agent and the right person in that Agency.

    Woodser,

    Who is your estate agent, we are trying to sell a 2 bed terraced house in Charlesland Wood at the mo.... PM if you like....

    D.


  • #17
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    fishdog wrote:
    Hammiepeters, I am just calling it as I see it! I just answered the question at the start of the post! You are correct, there is no reason to panic. But prices are going down!! This may not suit you but it is a fact!! It does not suit me either. Which Charlesland property went down in price?

    There are still pleny of jobs, but not at the rate that there were.
    Not in building maybe, but other industries? There are plenty of jobs.

    woodser is correct by stating that he has made money on the properties he is talking about. Prices would have to drop a huge amount before he would be at a loss, as he said. But the market is slowing at present and prices are dropping. The rises in prices we had seen were unsustainable. It had to end somewhere. Slowed yes, stopped even, yes. But the fundamentals for Charlesland are still good. People will buy here now that the stamp duty issue is resolved. Greystones is not overpriced. We are actually less expensive than ****hole Bray.

    I am not saying that the property market is going to crash and we are all in trouble. Prices might just become a bit more realistic.
    Yes they will. Slow maybe to 3-4% this year and next. Yes the rises were unsustainable.


  • #18
    JupiterKid
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 12,896 Mod ✭✭✭✭JupiterKid


    Get real. House prices are dropping everywhere in Ireland and we are facing a major property crash. Even the banks and VIs are predicting falling house prices this year. The market has turned and the extent of the sheer lunacy of the property bubble will be exposed for all to see.

    I fully expect the price of my house in Dublin, which I bought in 2001, to return close to its 2001 value when the crash is over. An estate agent friend of mine was telling me that market conditions are "dire" at the moment.

    If you look at DAFT, their inventory is now approaching 45,000 from 15,000 at the start of the year - because very little housing is selling and unsold houses are stacking up. Add to that the 250,000+ vacant housing built and hard times are ahead.

    The question is not will the crash happen - it's begun - but how far will house prices fall and by how much?


  • #19
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    I think you guys should go down to Irish Financial Services district and give free morning pep talks.


  • #20
    Plenty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 240 ✭✭Plenty


    Hammiepeters wrote:
    And there are no end of terrace 3 beds for sale in Charlesland and if there is, I'll bet its 555K min.

    Check out these links. http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=307971&np=&rt=search&searchlist=

    http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=305678&np=&rt=search&searchlist=

    and

    http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=304642&np=&rt=search&searchlist=

    The last property has been up for grabs for months now. The original price was €555K but they had to reduce it to €535K in order to get a quick sale, but hasn't happened


  • #21
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    Hi, I'm new to this but couldn't help but start to comment on some of these discussions that i have been reading.

    We got our 3 bed end of terrace valued in Jan 2007 to get the best possible loan to value Mortgage!! It was valued at 540K, not planning on moving in this environment so we have equity which is "paper money" and i expect that to drop over the coming years.

    I see now there are 4 or so of these properties in Charlesland for sale and not moving. If that was me and I needed to sell I would drop the price some where between 400-480k, it would probably sell then but who knows it might need to be lower.

    Inflation running at 5% doesn't help any one, so comments about a 3-4% drop in price is therefore really a 8-9% drop.

    Love Greystones, love Charlesland but ALL housing in ireland is way over priced and needs to come down. I've lived in several European countries and never met SO many people with 25-35 years worth of debt, right up to there eye balls and with no pensions!

    Haven't got a crystal ball but personally would like a 20-30% drop, but i know this will have a major impact on GDP and I really feel for people who have been milked by the property developers, banks etc.

    We are lucky we don't have all our assets in property and we are not in the position where we have to sell cos we can't afford the repayments. A 20-30%drop would mean we could move on to a 4-5 bedroom house, at a "reasonable" price.

    So in the medium/long term the property market in charlesland will be fine as at some point people will have the confidence (if they can) to jump back in. But for me it wait and see probably for the next 2 years, but will review as the "story" un folds.

    I am not promoting doom or gloom i love living here,I love living in Charlesland, I have a family grow up here and want the best for the economy but have to be realistic i.e I'm not risk borrowing any more, or taking the mortgage over 20 year and not miss out on 3 family holidays a year!!

    If we were all less obsessed with property we could all get on with what's important in life, what ever that might be.


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  • #22
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    Plenty, yes of the three you listed one is an end of terrace, the other two are mid. Mids should be cheaper so therefore the EOT is a bargain. You can see why it hasnt sold when you think of the stamp duty that would have applied up until last week. No one knew whether or not it would be backdated. That house will sell very soon. 555K is about where they are. Interesting stat. Of the 38,000 first time buyers last year 2,000 paid stamp duty. Therefore with the slowdown in new house completions already underway, rents going through the roof, you can see FTBs becoming more interested in Charlesland second hand homes. 3-4% increase this year.


  • #23
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    Hammiepeters
    You can see why it hasnt sold when you think of the stamp duty that would have applied up until last week.

    No, stamp duty exemption would only apply to first time buyers!

    Hammiepeters
    Of the 38,000 first time buyers last year 2,000 paid stamp duty.

    Exactly! So only a small number of people will benifit from the new legislation on stamp duty!

    Yet as DTinthegrove has said:
    I see now there are 4 or so of these properties in Charlesland for sale and not moving. If that was me and I needed to sell I would drop the price some where between 400-480k, it would probably sell then but who knows it might need to be lower.

    Sunday Buisiness Post yesterday:

    "Economists and commentators believe that the move (new legislation on stamp duty) will give the market a modest boost, but feel that rising interest rates and stricter lending criteria are greater issues affecting the market and could offset most of the benefits. They also point out that first time buyers only accounty for one third of all sales, and changes do not help those trying to trade up or trade down."

    Ronan O'Driscoll, director Hamilton Osborne King "The abolition of stamp duty for first-time purchasers is a token gesture to pacify political issues, rather than an attempt to address the stamp duty issue properly..........Despite the changes stamp duty taxes in Ireland are still the second highest in Europe, after Greece"

    Martin O'Mahony of Property Team O'Mahony "The cooling is not because of stamp duty-it's from an overheating in the property prices and eight mortgage interest rate increases since December 2005". Two more are expected soon.....

    I fail to see how property prices in Charlesland can exceed last years prices. They have to drop a bit at least. Read the papers, listen to the news etc.


  • #24
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    fishdog wrote:
    Hammiepeters

    No, stamp duty exemption would only apply to first time buyers! Yes of which there were 38,000 last year

    Hammiepeters

    Exactly! So only a small number of people will benifit from the new legislation on stamp duty! We will all benefit. Total abolition would have cost us all....Dearly

    Yet as DTinthegrove has said:

    Sunday Buisiness Post yesterday:

    "Economists and commentators believe that the move (new legislation on stamp duty) will give the market a modest boost, but feel that rising interest rates and stricter lending criteria are greater issues affecting the market and could offset most of the benefits. They also point out that first time buyers only accounty for one third of all sales, and changes do not help those trying to trade up or trade down." Politically motivated BS. There will be no further stamp duty moves nor should there be.

    Ronan O'Driscoll, director Hamilton Osborne King "The abolition of stamp duty for first-time purchasers is a token gesture to pacify political issues, rather than an attempt to address the stamp duty issue properly..........Despite the changes stamp duty taxes in Ireland are still the second highest in Europe, after Greece" so what. In other ways we are nothing like Greece.

    Martin O'Mahony of Property Team O'Mahony "The cooling is not because of stamp duty-it's from an overheating in the property prices and eight mortgage interest rate increases since December 2005". Two more are expected soon..... BS. Most of those rises were offset by tax reform at budget time.

    I fail to see how property prices in Charlesland can exceed last years prices. They have to drop a bit at least. Read the papers, listen to the news etc.
    I do. There are always doomsday scenarios and unfortunately they do suceed in talking things down. Positive commentators see this spell as alogical correction and forecast 3-4% growth annually. Niall O'Grady.(for instance). Cheer up. Your house will sell.


  • #25
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    If the housing market is this dependent on people “talking up” the market and it can be severely damaged by others being “pessimistic”, then it just shows how shaky the market really is.


  • #26
    Marcais
    Closed Accounts Posts: 448 ✭✭Marcais


    fishdog wrote:
    If the housing market is this dependent on people “talking up” the market and it can be severely damaged by others being “pessimistic”, then it just shows how shaky the market really is.

    Economists have to justify their existence. The variation in opinion and newspaper headlines etc. on the subject from one day to the next is extraordinary.


  • #27
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    Marcais wrote:
    Economists have to justify their existence. The variation in opinion and newspaper headlines etc. on the subject from one day to the next is extraordinary.

    Yes. It is.


  • #28
    dubrunner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 100 ✭✭dubrunner


    Marcais wrote:
    Economists have to justify their existence. The variation in opinion and newspaper headlines etc. on the subject from one day to the next is extraordinary.

    Very negative again Marcais.

    They don't have to justify their existence as you so eloquently put it.

    That is their job!


  • #29
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    dubrunner wrote:
    Very negative again Marcais.

    They don't have to justify their existence as you so eloquently put it.

    That is their job!
    Ah! come on Dub. He Marcais is not being negative. How many times a day do you hear so called experts self promoting themselves with sensationalist topics. Sometimes when you switch channels on the radio, you will hear a polar opposite forecast on issues like house prices, economic outlook,etc.
    .......................and climate change. its dry..global warming. its pissing..global warming.


  • #30
    evectm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7 ✭evectm


    The prices are dropping - but it dose seem to depend on the property your in .. We have sale agreed our 2 bed for 365k, but there are plenty of them still selling and for sale in and around the 370k. The 3 bed duplex's seem to have dropped in value big time while the 3 bed ground floors have gone up. Sure the 2 bed houses even thought they have dropped back to the 405k mark are now worth more then the 3bed duplex's. The 3 bed houses are up from 525-555k depending on a lot of factors. the choice is too big at the moment down there, its not a great place to live long term really and hence a lot of people are moving on. Be great if you bough early in 03-05 but anyone who bought in 06 will be looking long term at negitave equity i would think. We also have a 2 bed house in Wicklow town - for sale for 9 months we have dropped teh price by 50k and still have not sold it.. things are not looking good for the property market now..all wee can do is hope the levels will stay as they are and not continue to drop.. you have to admit there are an awful lot of houses/apts for sale for a small area.. does this not tell us something is wrong ?.. not snotty replies to me ( please ) !


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  • #31
    Langerland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 328 ✭✭Langerland


    Prices are certainly falling from where they were last year, but I'd say its far from any type of crash. People are more vulnerable in areas where they have paid way over the odds for houses that are clearly not worth it. However, Charlesland has a lot to offer in my opinion. Greystones is a great place to live and has a lot to offer. I cannot see how there would not be a demand to live there. Rose tinted glasses??:D I don't know...I am optimistic.


  • #32
    Eoin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,257 ✭✭✭✭Eoin


    evectm wrote:
    you have to admit there are an awful lot of houses/apts for sale for a small area.. does this not tell us something is wrong ?.. not snotty replies to me ( please ) !

    That's always going to be the case for that kind of development. There are a lot of investors there who will always have wanted to sell up after a couple of years, and probably a few couples like myself and the WTB who enjoyed living there, but got sick of apartment living and wanted a house.

    Not that I'm blind to the prices dropping; the 2 bed apartments late last year were averaging around the 375K mark - don't know if any broke the 381 barrier, but they were certainly selling for right up to it.


  • #33
    evectm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7 ✭evectm


    Were they not just over valued to start ? Were the 2 beds up for and selling at the 380k mark ?I saw them on myhome.ie for that price but that was just at the very top end of the market i spoke to an auctioneer who had one up for - i cant see them going above the 365k to370k. The 2 bed houses the same they were on there last year up to 430 and now there are some on at 390k mark. It has to come down as nothing is worth what people were asking.. the estate agents are pushing and pushing up the prices and people stopped giving them.There seems to be a fall off in sales in all areas ofIreland - but there is sooo many properties in Charesland for sale - it jsut does not seem right. There is some places for Sale there for 9 months and still no sale.. if that does not tell us something..


  • #34
    Eoin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,257 ✭✭✭✭Eoin


    evectm wrote:
    Were they not just over valued to start ? Were the 2 beds up for and selling at the 380k mark ?I saw them on myhome.ie for that price but that was just at the very top end of the market i spoke to an auctioneer who had one up for - i cant see them going above the 365k to370k. The 2 bed houses the same they were on there last year up to 430 and now there are some on at 390k mark. It has to come down as nothing is worth what people were asking.. the estate agents are pushing and pushing up the prices and people stopped giving them.There seems to be a fall off in sales in all areas ofIreland - but there is sooo many properties in Charesland for sale - it jsut does not seem right. There is some places for Sale there for 9 months and still no sale.. if that does not tell us something..

    Last September when we out our place on the market, the two bed apartments were going for up to 380K, and the two bed town houses were around the 420 mark from what I remember.

    I think their initial purchase prices were about 100K less each?


  • #35
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    It's not just Charlesland, Applewood heights has 10 houses for sale, some on for more than 90 days now, no interest because of affordablity. People can't sell their house for the price they need(want), can't borrow any more or don't want to borrow any more.

    I'd say the % of properties for sale in Charlesland (ie as a proportion of the number of properties in estate) is probable the same as the % of properties for sale in Applewood.

    Figures out today show that year to date house prices are down by over 2% and inflation is running at 5%. So if you bought a 3 bed end of terrace for €540k in December you are €11k down, plus what you spent on stamp. Thats not nice.

    Potentially 3 more interest rate rises before spring 08 means we are likely to see some larger prices drops if people really want to sell. If they don't really want to sell then they should keep the prices at the same level, but might as well take them off the market.

    Don't get me wrong, I do feel SO sorry for those who may have negative equity, because of the irresponsible banks and developers. Again I am not being negative love Ireland, love Greystones love Charleslands just expressing my thoughts and just looking at what going on around us, in my opinion.


  • #36
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    It's not just Charlesland, Applewood heights has 10 houses for sale, some on for more than 90 days now, no interest because of affordablity. People can't sell their house for the price they need(want), can't borrow any more or don't want to borrow any more.

    I'd say the % of properties for sale in Charlesland (ie as a proportion of the number of properties in estate) is probable the same as the % of properties for sale in Applewood.

    Figures out today show that year to date house prices are down by over 2% and inflation is running at 5%. So if you bought a 3 bed end of terrace for €540k in December you are €11k down, plus what you spent on stamp. Thats not nice.

    Potentially 3 more interest rate rises before spring 08 means we are likely to see some larger prices drops if people really want to sell. If they don't really want to sell then they should keep the prices at the same level, but might as well take them off the market.

    Don't get me wrong, I do feel SO sorry for those who may have negative equity, because of the irresponsible banks and developers. Again I am not being negative love Ireland, love Greystones love Charleslands just expressing my thoughts and just looking at what going on around us, in my opinion.


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  • #37
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    See i'm new to this, must have pressed the button twice


  • #38
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    Langerland wrote:
    Prices are certainly falling from where they were last year, but I'd say its far from any type of crash. People are more vulnerable in areas where they have paid way over the odds for houses that are clearly not worth it. However, Charlesland has a lot to offer in my opinion. Greystones is a great place to live and has a lot to offer. I cannot see how there would not be a demand to live there. Rose tinted glasses??:D I don't know...I am optimistic.
    Langer, it is refreshing to hear your views. What you say is correct. Price drop announced today of 2.5k nationally in the year of election and stamp duty reform. Hardly a national calamity! Have seen a sale agreed sign go up on a 2bed alreadty this week. Very sick and tired of people talking this thing down and down. Three beds have jumped nearly 200k since release. That sort of growth is obviously not sustainable and an adjustment of the sort we've seen will slow the growth to a realistic level. I still think we can expect 3-4% annually this year and next year.
    There has always been a lot of negative whinging about house affordability as long as I can remember, yet people buy houses. Interest rate increases are to be slightly offset in December budget. If anyone sells a house due to uncertainty they will be entering a rental market which is already going through the roof.


  • #39
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    DTinthegrove wrote:

    Figures out today show that year to date house prices are down by over 2% and inflation is running at 5%. So if you bought a 3 bed end of terrace for €540k in December you are €11k down, plus what you spent on stamp. Thats not nice.


    Cheapest 3 bed EOT is €535k and thats because he wants to sell quickly. Stamp duty paid by first home buyers(and remember there were only 3,000 FTBs who paid it last year) is lost money.


  • #40
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    I see in todays paper that whilst prices fell nationally in May, the counties Wicklow, Kildare and Meath actually show increases in house value for May. Still think Niall O'Grady the most straightforward of the analysts in the housing market/mortgage game.


  • #41
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    Don't think this discussion is going any where there will always be conflicting views but 3-4% rise in prices this year is NOT going to happen.

    I wish the people selling their house the best of luck and i am not being negative about Charlesland or Greystones but affordablity has to come down and it would be good for the economy in the medium/long term if it does.

    3 Bedroom end of terrace Charlesland €535

    First time buyer with deposit would need to borrow half a million euros, half a million euros!! 17 times average national wage, over 6 times salary if you are lucky enough to earning €80k.

    Non First time buyer, face a stamp duty bill of 40K so an out lay of €575. Say 150k equity they still need to borrow 13 times average national wage, over 5 times salary if you are lucky enough to earn €80k.

    Mad, mad mad. The best thing would be for affordability to come back for everyone. I own a 3 bed end of terrace and would NOT pay €535 for it, way too expensive €400-€420 would be a realistic price.


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  • #42
    Eoin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,257 ✭✭✭✭Eoin


    DTinthegrove wrote:
    Don't think this discussion is going any where there will always be conflicting views but 3-4% rise in prices this year is NOT going to happen.

    I wish the people selling their house the best of luck and i am not being negative about Charlesland or Greystones but affordablity has to come down and it would be good for the economy in the medium/long term if it does.

    3 Bedroom end of terrace Charlesland €535

    First time buyer with deposit would need to borrow half a million euros, half a million euros!! 17 times average national wage, over 6 times salary if you are lucky enough to earning €80k.

    Non First time buyer, face a stamp duty bill of 40K so an out lay of €575. Say 150k equity they still need to borrow 13 times average national wage, over 5 times salary if you are lucky enough to earn €80k.

    Mad, mad mad. The best thing would be for affordability to come back for everyone. I own a 3 bed end of terrace and would NOT pay €535 for it, way too expensive €400-€420 would be a realistic price.

    Does "Affordability to come back" not mean a lot of people in negative equity?


  • #43
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    Yes unfortunately for some in the short term, 1-5 years. This would give wage inflation time to play catch up, so medium -long term = more sustainable and affordable houses prices.

    Hey but what do i know? The Goverment is very protective of the economy's over dependance on the construction industry so they may come up with some thing radical in the next budget.

    Increase in mortgage interest relief is welcome but not radical. Interest relief rewards people for being in debt which i think is a bit strange, but not complaining as we use it to pay of our mortgage quicker,


  • #44
    Eoin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,257 ✭✭✭✭Eoin


    DTinthegrove wrote:
    Increase in mortgage interest relief is welcome but not radical. Interest relief rewards people for being in debt which i think is a bit strange, but not complaining as we use it to pay of our mortgage quicker,

    It's not radical, but for 2nd hand houses I think it's the only way to give the savings to the buyer, not the seller. I really think any changes have to be as intangible to the seller as possible. Increased mortgage relief is one such way. I wonder if allowing stamp duty to be partly deductable for tax returns / credits would be another way (for owner occupiers only).

    When we sold our apartment last September, the prices were going right up to the stamp duty threshhold of 381K. If the changes to stamp duty had been in place at that time, then they may have been going for even more.

    I do realise that the increase in price would not have been equal to the cost of the stamp duty, and the same amount of hard cash would not have been required up front, but it still increases the prices.


  • #45
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    I dont know when people are going to realise that housing prices have nothing to do with worth. Its what people will pay. Pay to live in Ireland because the Economist listed us as the best country in the world to live in, 2005. Pay to live in Dublin, because thats where the jobs are. Pay to live in Wicklow for the amenities and envoironment and because its close to Dublin.
    A quick look at international properties, eg. USA, Australia will show you what you can get for 500k is vastly superior to here except that it is not here. And here is not South Kensington where people will pay 1million for a shoebox. Talk it up.Its your asset. Wicklow prices recovered in may. There is only one EOT at €535. Stamp duty reform was only ratified today.


  • #46
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    I agree the market is about what people will pay OR are willing to pay OR Can Pay. People will pay what they thinks its "worth" to them what ever that might be.

    This worth has been talked up by EA, developers and banks to a point way above what people can actually afford. Hence, we are the most indebted nation in the world.

    I might think its worth paying €5million for a flat in Kensington, but i probably have to finance this and the cost of me doing that has doubled since 2005, but i'm not likely to have doubled my income since 2005.

    The increase in the cost of borrowing has a massive effect on what you can pay/are willing to pay and it likely to go up by another 19% yet (4.00-4.75%)before spring 2008.

    Cost of pre school education, services, electricity, gas, petrol etc have all gone up quicker than the average salary all adding to people feeling the pinch.


  • #47
    mikedragon32
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,939 ✭✭✭mikedragon32


    DTinthegrove wrote:
    I might think its worth paying €5million for a flat in Kensington, but i probably have to finance this and the cost of me doing that has doubled since 2005, but i'm not likely to have doubled my income since 2005.

    The increase in the cost of borrowing has a massive effect on what you can pay/are willing to pay and it likely to go up by another 19% yet (4.00-4.75%)before spring 2008.
    How has the cost of doing that doubled since 2005? If interest rates double, that doesn't mean your mortgage repayments have doubled.

    It strikes me that you are spinning figures to suit your pessimistic outlook on the property market.


  • #48
    DTinthegrove
    Closed Accounts Posts: 71 ✭✭DTinthegrove


    To clarify, I thought I said the cost of borrowing has doubled ie the interest rate, sorry may be this wasn't clear.

    Of course repayments haven't doubled.

    Mortgage repayments for most people would be one of the biggest, if not the biggest monthly outgoing and the cost of servicing this Mortgage ie the interest has doubled.

    Surely this is significant for most people and would mean they have less disposable income and they may not be able to borrow as much, which will have a large effect on house prices in Charlesland and Ireland in general.

    Sorry if you view me as pessimistic, but i am just discussing my veiws at this moment in time, I don't say am right at all and i thought this is what this forum was for.

    I'm am actual very optimistic about Charlesland and Greystones in the medium/long term and optimistic compared to some economist suggesting yesterday a 50% drop in value in the next 10 year.


  • #49
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    I'm sorry Dee, but didn't you post earlier that if you were in a hurry to sell,you would consider dropping your EOT from a peak value of 555k to 400K? That does not strike me as optimistic. And yes I agree with Mike, you did put a spin on the figures above to create an alarmist impression of peoples outgoings having doubled. All this stuff about average this and average that simply does not apply here. So many houses are dual income proffessional people who know that what seems like a collosal borrowing today will not seem that way in 10years. Always was that way. Allways will be. And yes the 50% drop guy got his name on every station and every paper. which is what he wanted.


  • #50
    Hammiepeters
    Closed Accounts Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Hammiepeters


    And accomadation, not necessarily mortgage repayments are peoples highest outgoing. In other words , there a hares breath between a months rent on a 3bed EOT and repayment on what many of us borrowed If I sold up and rented I would not be much better off and if I was still renting, I would want to buy.


  • #51
    fishdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭fishdog


    The truth is the cost of living in this country is crazy and people are sick of it. Childcare for my 4 year old costs me almost €1000 per month. This goes up every 6 months. Mortgage reypayments, running a car, interest rate hikes etc, etc. I am not pessimistic, I feel lucky that I own a home and my repayments are not as large as many others.

    Most of the property in Ireland is massively over priced. It is not so much of a case that people will not take it any more, it is that they simply can not afford it anymore. They have no choice, the banks will not lend them the amount they need to borrow. I know many people that have only been able to borrow the amount that they have by telling lies!

    I still believe that property prices will drop 5% or so this year, but not much futher. You will still be ahead if you bought 3 years ago, I think. But there is no way that prices do anything but drop this year.


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