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July 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT clings to 17.4 (17.36) with the 14th at 17.0. The average for the second week was 16.9 C (1.4 above normal).

    MAX for the day 26.4 (Casement) and MIN of 8.7 (Dublin, Markree) failed to move those markers (28.1, 4.5).

    PRC finally has some business with 16.2 mm at five western and northern locations, still only about 60% of a normal daily amount. This brings the month up to 5% of normal. The second week average was 10% of normal.

    SUN was 35.7 hours, about 105% of a normal daily amount, and mostly in the two eastern locations and Cork. This sets the new monthly average at 161%. The weekly average (from ag. report) was 138% (828/600).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT has now fallen to 17.3 C, with the 15th at 16.5 C. An average of 16 in the second half of July would bring us to about 16.6 C (this is a rough estimate based on recent model runs).

    MAX of 21.1 (Shannon) and MIN of 11.5 (Knock) leave untouched the monthly extremes of 28.1 and 4.5 C.

    PRC of 65.3 mm was for the first time in almost a month an above normal daily amount (in fact 233% of normal) which pushes the monthly value up to 20% of normal. Near normal rain in the second half of the month would therefore leave this stat around 60% by month's end. (just saying, not a prediction, think it will be at least 80% to reach 50 at end of month).

    SUN took a day off -- 2.9 hours was only 9% of normal. That drops the monthly average to 150% of normal. Near normal amounts of sunshine for the rest of July would leave the month around 125%. Here again, the actual value could be a bit lower or higher, seems unlikely to remain as high as 150% though.

    Because of some bold forecasting, we may not need the minimum progression scoring in July. We have PRC forecasts as low as 40% and SUN as high as 165%. I have some doubt that the IMT will finish much higher than our lowest or second lowest forecasts, the heat never really returned full force (yet). Some of the lower MAX forecasts may do best. I'm quite happy to see MIN settled in where it is now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT is barely 17.2 after 16 days (17.16) and the 16th average was 15.2, slightly below normal for a change.

    MAX for the day 21.2 (OP, PP) and MIN 7.9 (Mullingar), no change to monthly (28.1, 4.5).

    PRC for the day 1.6 mm (7% of normal) so that leaves the month at 19% of normal.

    SUN was 23.0 hours, about 70% of normal, which drops the monthly average down to 145%.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 17 days, the IMT on 17.1 with the 17th on 15.5 (the mean for July also).

    MAX of 21.8 (PP) and MIN of 8.5 (Claremorris) leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 4.5.

    PRC of 4.8 mm (17% of normal) leaves the monthly value at 19% of normal. Some 4-5 mm falls at stations not in our grid such as Knock, Markree and Moorepark.

    SUN continues to come back to reality with only 12.7 hours (38% of normal) which now leaves the month at 139%.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 18 days, the IMT is a nice consensual 17.0 C, with the 18th on 15.7 C.

    MAX for the day 21.9 at Casement and Phoenix Park, MIN 8.0 at Markree, leaving the month unchanged (28.1, 4.5).

    PRC just 0.1 mm at Belmullet in our contest grid, so that allows the month to drift back down to 18% of normal.

    SUN 35.6 hours, about 106% of normal, but this allows another drop for the month, to 137%.

    I will be on the road soon, but likely to have internet access the first few days (visiting family) so it's probably going to be 24th to 30th that will need some updates. If anyone wants to volunteer to continue these updates, I can send you a PM about how to do them. I will be on contest duty for the 31st of July and 1st of August then likely gone from the net for 21 days to 22nd of August, so there again, August contest updates would be appreciated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT continues its steady downward slide, now 16.9 after 19 days. The 19th average was 15.3 C.

    MAX of 23.1 at both Casement and Oak Park, MIN of 6.6 at Casement, leaving month unchanged (28.1, 4.5).

    PRC on 19th was 4.6 mm at Belmullet and Malin Head, amounting to 16% of normal for the grid and that leaves the month at 18%. The rain today may push this value up into the 20s.

    SUN on 19th was 47.2 hours, about 142% of normal, and that halts the steady fall of monthly sunshine at 137%.

    Looking at current guidance, could imagine IMT might recover slightly to around 17.1 (end of month), chances appear modest for either MAX or MIN to change, PRC could fight its way to 50% and SUN seems unlikely to increase and could fall back into 120% range. Will post some highly speculative provisional scoring based on those estimates, mainly to save myself some screen time at end of month when actually scoring.

    So make of those provisional scores what you wish, more of a "what if" situation (when I post them in a few minutes) ...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hypothetical scoring for July 2018

    See previous post for discussion ... just putting up a table that I can edit faster when I have limited time on line around 1st of August.


    FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 6th loc'n __ TOTAL

    Estimated values ___ 17.1_28.1_ 4.5_050_120 __ 25.3_OP



    sryanbruen _________22 _ 20*_ 11 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 90

    waterways _________ 24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 _______ 80

    Rameire ___________ 21 _ 08*_ 20 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 79


    __ Consensus ______ 24 _ 10*_ 20 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 79


    M.T. Cranium ______ 25 _ 14*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 74

    JCX_BXC __________24 _ 13*_ 14 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 73

    Jpmarn ___________ 22 _ 12*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 73

    john mac __________21 _ 17*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 71

    pauldry ___________ 23 _ 10*_ 13 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 71

    Bsal ______________23 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

    DOCARCH _________ 20 _ 16*_ 14 _ 13 _ 01 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 71

    Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 10*_ 15 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 70

    Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___21 _ 15*_ 13 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 76-6=70

    Dacogawa _________ 24 _ 03*_ 18 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 67

    MrSkinner _________ 24 _ 11*_ 16 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 65

    sunflower3 _________24 _ 13*_ 00 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 ____ 63

    dasa29 ___________ 24 _ 10*_ 00 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 62

    mickger844posts ____21 _ 08*_ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 60

    Rikand ____________24 _ 04*_ 15 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 2 _______ 60

    sdanseo ___________24 _ 00*_ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 60

    adam240610 _______13 _ 18*_ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 60

    BLIZZARD7 ________ 19 _ 01*_ 12 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 59

    Joe Public _________ 23 _ 05*_ 14 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 56

    200motels _________22 _ 02*_ 13 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 53



    __ NormaL ________ 09 _ 19*_ 10 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 50
    ______________________________________________________________________________


    * MAX scoring from minimum progression. Highest raw score is 17 (sryanbruen) ... if MAX reaches 28.3 to 28.5, raw score will be 19 or 20 and this could drop the rest of the scores (only half of boosted points available if maximum raw score is 19 or 20 in this category). Similar comment if the MAX gets close to any higher value although as that happens, raw scores may not need boosting (after application of this rule, raw score if higher will count).

    So, while sryanbruen will be hoping my PRC and SUN estimates are on target, and MAX stays below 29, he can actually improve the high score already shown with (a) lower IMT and (b) lower MIN. Of course these scores are somewhat approximate at this point, so good luck if you have a high score from these estimates. I will edit this table if possible (at least once perhaps) as later data adjust the estimates. Then the actual numbers will be generated on August 1st.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


    BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

    mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

    john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

    MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

    sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

    waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

    M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

    sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

    Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

    Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

    dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

    JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


    Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


    Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

    Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

    Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

    pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

    200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

    Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

    sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

    Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

    Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

    DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

    adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


    NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
    ______________________________________________________________________________


    NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

    Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

    * Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT still on 16.9 after 20th, when the daily mean was 16.8 C.

    MAX for the day 22.5 at Cork, MIN was 11.6 at Knock, monthly values remain 28.1, 4.5 C.

    PRC for the day was 59.5 mm which is about 210% of the daily normal amount; this changes the monthly average to 28% of normal.

    SUN managed only 1.6 hours (5%) which results in the monthly average dropping to 130% of normal.

    ... hoping to have a bit of internet time the next few days as we visit family before taking off for the back country around the 24th, so I may be able to update these reports ...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT remains on 16.9, 21st was 16.4 and third week 15.9 (0.2 above normal).

    MAX 23.9 (Moorepark) and MIN 9.8 (Gurteen) -- month remains on 28.1, 4.5.

    PRC 2.5 mm (9%) drops the month to 26%.... third week average 75% of normal.

    SUN 27.3 hours (83%) drops the month to 128% ... third week 75% also.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park didn't quite make a new max yesterday at 27.9.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT has moved back to 17,0 with a very warm 22nd (20.5 C).

    MAX 27.9 (OP) didn't quite move the marker (28.1) and MIN (14.7) C at JC possibly a new record high (MIN remains 4.5).

    PRC 3.6 mm (13%) moves the month back down to 25% of normal.

    SUN 11.9 hours barely 36% of normal, month is now down to 124% (not even a guarantee of above 100% yet after the outrageous first half).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Probably my last visit to this contest thread until scoring on August 2, as we are now set to leave the internet friendly home of our coastal relations and hit the road for the desert trip.

    IMT through 23 days was back up to 17.1, with another very warm day on 23rd (18.8).

    MAX of 27.7 (PP) and MIN (12.2, Mullingar) leave the monthly extremes at 28.1, 4.5.

    PRC of 27.3 mm was almost a normal daily amount and allowed the monthly average to rise to the giddy height of 28%.

    SUN of only 12.9 hours (39%) sees the month at its lowest point so far, 120%.

    August thread is open earlier than usual, would appreciate if readers would keep that thread visible and record any new MAX or MIN for July. See you in August.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Have arrived in motel stay destination, weather has been ideal other than one day of drifting forest fire smoke cutting vis to 3 miles, skies mostly clear so far, distant storms last night well east of us. We are in St George UT, noon temp is 40 C. Most of the time we stay up in the hills and out of these hotter valleys but will be in Mesquite NV furoiusly updating contests next 3-4 days then back to holiday (my wife can continue the holiday theme as her internet habits are more those of a normal person) ... I was curious enough to check IMT looks to be at 16.9 after 29 days. Will log back on in 4-5 hours and update everything, lack of posts suggests no new MIN or MAX but maybe somebody could confirm that. Stay cool, oh okay, not as big a problem now right?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So looking at the seven days 23rd to 29th in the ag report, in that interval the IMT was 16.4 which is still 0.8 above normal, the PRC was 174% of normal which increases the month to about 60%, and SUN was 93% which deflates the monthly average to about 119%. Will reboot the provisional scoring table when I get a better handle on how 30th and 31st are playing out the month, looks like my estimates while not abysmal could use some tweaking.

    They do weather a little differently here in the desert, after a high of 45 C we now have gusty southeast winds and lightning all quads, trying to decide whether to drop rain or blow sand, or a bit of both, as the temperature plunges to the high 30s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    No, westerlies inhibiting any new min or max. And washing away my forecast.
    Looks like you could do with a few Atlantic westerlies yourself.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Settling for a few Pacificos by the pool...

    updated hypothetical scoring with yesterday leaving the numbers as shown in the table, assuming little change after today. SUN estimate based on 122% after 30 days. A few will gain 3 points from lower IMT and lose 5 from higher PRC (no other scoring estimate changes). But you can gain or lose any combination from +8 to -8.

    FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 6th loc'n __ TOTAL

    Estimated values ___ 16.7_28.1_ 4.5_068_120 __ 25.3_OP


    Rameire ___________ 25 _ 08*_ 20 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 88

    sryanbruen _________24 _ 20*_ 11 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 85



    __ Consensus ______ 22 _ 10*_ 20 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 84


    waterways ________ 20 _ 19*_ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 _______ 83

    Jpmarn ___________ 24 _ 12*_ 19 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 81

    JCX_BXC __________22 _ 13*_ 14 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 78

    pauldry ___________ 23 _ 10*_ 13 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 78

    M.T. Cranium ______ 21 _ 14*_ 20 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 77

    Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 10*_ 15 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 77

    bsal ______________23 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

    Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 03*_ 18 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 71

    DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 16*_ 14 _ 07 _ 01 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 69

    MrSkinner _________ 20 _ 11*_ 16 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 68

    Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___25 _ 15*_ 13 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 73-6=67

    john mac __________17 _ 17*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 67

    sunflower3 _________20 _ 13*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 ____ 65

    Rikand ____________22 _ 04*_ 15 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 2 _______ 65

    sdanseo ___________22 _ 00*_ 13 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 65

    adam240610 _______17 _ 18*_ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 64

    Joe Public _________ 23 _ 05*_ 14 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 63

    mickger844posts ____17 _ 08*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 62

    200motels _________24 _ 02*_ 13 _ 15 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 62


    __ NormaL ________ 13 _ 19*_ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 59


    dasa29 ___________ 22 _ 10*_ 00 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 57

    BLIZZARD7 ________ 15 _ 01*_ 12 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 48

    ______________________________________________________________________________


    * MAX scoring from minimum progression. Highest raw score is 17 (sryanbruen).

    Will adjust these scores tomorrow and confirm by Thursday, updating annual scoring at that time.

    Congrats to rameire and sryanbruen for leading the way in what turned out to be quite a good month for our group consensus forecast.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


    BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

    mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

    john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

    MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

    sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

    waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

    M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

    sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

    Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

    Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

    dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

    JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


    Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


    Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

    Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

    Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

    pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

    200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

    Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

    sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

    Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

    Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

    DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

    adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


    NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
    ______________________________________________________________________________


    NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

    Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

    * Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to July)

    rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _JUN _ JUL __TOTAL _ JUN rank __ best 5/7 (rank)

    01 _Pauldry______________ 73 __ 58 __ 89 __ 48 __ 76 __ 59 __ 78 ___ 481 ___ 01 ____ 375 (1)

    (02) _ Con Sensus ________ 73 __ 67 __ 69 __ 51 __ 71 __ 54 __ 84 ___ 460 ___(04) ____364 (t-2)

    02 _Dacogawa ____________71 __ 67 __ 70 __ 67 __ 63 __ 52 __ 71 ___ 461 ___ 03 ____ 346 (t 4)
    t03_Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 __ 61 __ 74 __ 65 __ 65 ___ 457 ___ 02 ____ 334 (12)
    t03_sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 __ 60 __ 74 __ 46 __ 85 ___ 457 ___ 04 ____ 355 (3)
    05 _Jpmarn ______________71 __ 61 __ 49 __ 57 __ 68 __ 60 __ 81 ___ 447 ___ 10 ____ 341 (6)
    06 _waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 __ 73 __ 76 __ 46 __ 83 ___ 444 ___t07 ____ 364 (2)
    07 _DOCARCH ____________63 __ 62 __ 75 __ 61 __ 68 __ 42 __ 69 ___ 440 ___ 05 ____ 337 (t 8)
    08 _Rameire _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 __ 44 __ 88 ___ 432 ___ 14 ____ 339 (7)
    09 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 __ 56 __ 86 __ 49 __ 77 ___ 425 ___ 13 ____ 331 (14)
    10 _MrSkinner ____________73 __ 64 __ 72 __ 42 __ 69 __ 36 __ 68 ___ 424 ___ 10 ____ 346 (t 4)
    11 _mickger844posts ______ 75 __ 77 __ 69 __ 42 __ 54 __ 44 __ 62 ___ 423 ___t07 ____ 337 (t 8)
    12 _Tae laidir _____________78 __ 53 __ 63 __ 47 __ 61 __ 52 __ 67 ___ 421 ___ 11 ____ 322 (15)
    t13_Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 __ 81 __ 61 __ 66 __ 63 ___ 414 ___ 12 ____ 333 (13)
    t13_JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 __ 43 __ 77 __ 56 __ 78 ___ 414 ___t16 ____ 337 (t 8)
    t15_BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 __ 70 __ 92 __ 52 __ 48 ___ 408 ___ 09 ____ 335 (11)
    t15_sunflower3 ___________ 68 __ 56 __ 63 __ 58 __ 57 __ 41 __ 65 ___ 408 ___ 15 ____ 311 (17)
    17 _sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 __ 52 __ 57 __ 64 __ 65 ___ 401 ___t16 ____ 304 (21)

    (18) NormaL _____________ 75 __ 52 __ 48 __ 71 __ 63 __ 31 __ 59 ___ 399 ___(09) ___ 320 (16)

    18 _Kindred Spirit _________59 __ 56 __ 55 __ 28 __ 66 __ 57 __ 77 ___ 398 ___ 19 ____ 315 (16)
    19 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 __ 71 __ 38 __ 56 __ 34 __ 71 ___ 382 ___ 21 ____ 310 (18)
    20 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 __ 83 __ 43 __ 54 __ 35 __ 57 ___ 381 ___ 18 ____ 306 (20)
    21 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 __ 49 __ 85 __ 32 __ 62 ___ 376 ___ 20 ____ 307 (19)
    22_john mac _____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 __ 42 __ 63 __ 39 __ 67 ___ 375 ___ 22 ____ 294 (23)
    23 _Lumi ________________ 54 __ 54 __ 62 __ --- __ 77 __ 55 __ ---- __ 302 ___ 23 ____ 302 (22)
    24 _Artane2002 ___________--- __ --- __ ---__ 59 __ 57 __ 47 __ ---- ___163 ___ 24
    25 _Adam240610 _________ --- __ --- __ 56 __ --- __ ---__ --- __ 64 ___ 120 ___ 25
    ________________________________________________________________________________

    Pauldry now the lone forecaster ahead of relentless Con Sensus, but a tight race nevertheless with not much separation in the chase pack.
    ________________________________________________________________


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT actually finished on 16.7 (16.72) which requires a one point adjustment to scores.

    PRC may be closer to 68% than my estimate of 65% but I will confirm that from MS.

    Assuming these to be the only changes, I am editing the tables slightly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I just found the July MS which confirms IMT, MAX, MIN and with one station not reporting, SUN.

    The PRC is adjusted to 70% -- some scores will change by 1, a few will remain on previous points.

    Will try to edit the tables before edit function expires, no further report here means scoring is adjusted (after 1400h).


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