Property Market 2019

Charlie · 12-01-2019 10:23pm

Not downplaying it, but renting on your own in a city has always been a stretch in Ireland. At least for the last 20 years.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 12-01-2019 10:35pm

BBFAN wrote: »

I disagree that affordability is only an issue in the capital. I live next to the Cork/Tipperary border and pay rent of 650, would love to move closer to Cork but the cheapest available is 850 and those cheapest ones are absolute kips.

To get a decent place you're talking 1000, for a single person that's purely unaffordable.

Sorry I meant from a purchasing perspective.

mkdon · 13-01-2019 1:00am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Sorry I meant from a purchasing perspective.

http://en.brinkwire.com/news/germany-looks-set-to-enter-a-recession-after-unexpected-collapse/

interestingly seems Germany is entering into recession ..not sure if this will affect Ireland but sure in some form considering our links to the powerhouse

Zenify · 13-01-2019 9:44am

Has anybody been to property viewings since the start of the year? Have the exemptions started lifting the market back up? I know it's still a little early to tell, just wanted to hear people's experiences and what location.

mkdon · 13-01-2019 9:56am

Zenify wrote: »

Has anybody been to property viewings since the start of the year? Have the exemptions started lifting the market back up? I know it's still a little early to tell, just wanted to hear people's experiences and what location.

what exemptions are you referring to?

Zenify · 13-01-2019 10:34am

mkdon wrote: »

what exemptions are you referring to?

The mortgage exemptions, some believe they are having an impact on prices. More exemptions at start of year equals price gains. Less exemptions at end of year resulting in slowdown.

January is usually a busy time for property and I wanted to see how this January was getting on. I haven't been able to go to viewings this january but have been for the last 2 years. That's why I'm asking.

There seems to be a normal amount of properties coming up for south Dublin but I'm not sure how busy the viewings are. There's less 'open viewings' and I was thinking that might be a bit of a sign too.

13-01-2019 12:58pm

Zenify wrote: »

Has anybody been to property viewings since the start of the year? Have the exemptions started lifting the market back up? I know it's still a little early to tell, just wanted to hear people's experiences and what location.

I've been to a few. Certainly feels quieter than early last year.

tomfoolery60 · 13-01-2019 3:06pm

I imagine (hope?) the banks will be better at managing their exemptions this year now they have had a few years worth of experience with them.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 13-01-2019 3:24pm

tomfoolery60 wrote: »

I imagine (hope?) the banks will be better at managing their exemptions this year now they have had a few years worth of experience with them.

Wouldn't be betting on that. The banks seem consistently incompetent

q85dw7osi4lebg · 13-01-2019 3:54pm

Banks only started meeting apllicants last week but brokers have already been telling hopeful purchasers that exemptions won't be a problem. Early days.

CarlOMartin · 13-01-2019 6:35pm

Zenify wrote: »

Has anybody been to property viewings since the start of the year? Have the exemptions started lifting the market back up? I know it's still a little early to tell, just wanted to hear people's experiences and what location.

Only limited anecdotal evidence, of course, but I've been to few and numbers are (expectedly) definitely higher than Nov and Dec. Can't compare on last Jan.

Also, to comment on the last post "Banks only started meeting applicants last week but brokers have already been telling hopeful purchasers that exemptions won't be a problem. Early days." We went to get the AIP late last year (around Nov,Dec) and the guy asked us do we want to take the exemption. He said by the time we provide all the documents and are able to draw the money down it will be 2019 already. So don't count on some quiet period - the exemptions are here already.

Frankie2019 · 13-01-2019 10:24pm

We have been following a property since July 2018. One offer which was 25K less that asking price rejected by sellers. No other offers. We have approved exemption to make the asking price but are concerned we are just buying negative equity from outset. Sellers have been waiting for new batch of exemptions to kick in which I think is just distorting the true market value and encouraging sellers to maintain high prices. If CBI eliminate exemptions there's a good chance we couldn't sell at this price; even if not eliminated the pool of possible buyers is reduced.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 13-01-2019 10:26pm

Frankie2019 wrote: »

We have been following a property since July 2018. One offer which was 25K less that asking price rejected by sellers. No other offers. We have approved exemption to make the asking price but are concerned we are just buying negative equity from outset. Sellers have been waiting for new batch of exemptions to kick in which I think is just distorting the true market value and encouraging sellers to maintain high prices. If CBI eliminate exemptions there's a good chance we couldn't sell at this price; even if not eliminated the pool of possible buyers is reduced.

It's only negative equity if you do the opposite of the current owner - sell it for less than you want for it.

If you are happy to pay the asking for it, that's it's market value on the day the transaction takes place.

dor843088 · 13-01-2019 10:32pm

Frankie2019 wrote: »

We have been following a property since July 2018. One offer which was 25K less that asking price rejected by sellers. No other offers. We have approved exemption to make the asking price but are concerned we are just buying negative equity from outset. Sellers have been waiting for new batch of exemptions to kick in which I think is just distorting the true market value and encouraging sellers to maintain high prices. If CBI eliminate exemptions there's a good chance we couldn't sell at this price; even if not eliminated the pool of possible buyers is reduced.

Sounds like market value and the owners expectations are not at the same figure. Seems to be becoming more and more common.

Bob24 · 13-01-2019 10:46pm

Frankie2019 wrote: »

If CBI eliminate exemptions there's a good chance we couldn't sell at this price; even if not eliminated the pool of possible buyers is reduced.

The CBI could also increase the number of exemptions or the LTI/LTV ratios which would push prices higher (would be a bad idea in my book and in the one of many followers of this thread, but it certainly is what the government and a good share of the general public would like them to do).

But to be honest I'm not sure I would buy trying to guess what they will do as it is simply impossible. And the good news is that at leave for the past few years they seem to have maintained a certain stability in the regulation.

Frankie2019 · 13-01-2019 10:47pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Sounds like market value and the owners expectations are not at the same figure. Seems to be becoming more and more common.

One thing we have noticed is that there's a definite increase in number of houses back on the market that were removed in late 2018 waiting for exemptions to kick-in. If all these sellers are chasing the same "exemption money" - there's potential for a deflationary effect in the market.

beaz2018 · 15-01-2019 12:07pm

I think people may be over estimating the impact of these exemptions on the market. Firstly, they are only worth 10% of the banks loan books. Secondly, many people are very reluctant to take them. The average mortgage issued in 2018 was well below the 3.5 limit. I think only 30% were between 3.25-3.5 range.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 15-01-2019 1:46pm

Was having a bit of a browse of daft there for my home town. Would be considered a commuter town to Dublin. There are a lot of new houses gone in there in the last year, but they don't seem to be able to shift them at all. There are at least 5 new developments of 50 plus houses that all have some units left. There are also at least 3 more currently under construction. I wonder if it's a function of affordability or desire to be closer to Dublin that is making them sit on the market?

On the other hand, the second hand market seems to be creeping up. Prices definitely seem higher there than they were 18 months ago. Just some anecdotal observations.

Moonjet · 15-01-2019 2:44pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Was having a bit of a browse of daft there for my home town. Would be considered a commuter town to Dublin. There are a lot of new houses gone in there in the last year, but they don't seem to be able to shift them at all. There are at least 5 new developments of 50 plus houses that all have some units left. There are also at least 3 more currently under construction. I wonder if it's a function of affordability or desire to be closer to Dublin that is making them sit on the market?

On the other hand, the second hand market seems to be creeping up. Prices definitely seem higher there than they were 18 months ago. Just some anecdotal observations.

Interesting observations. I remember an article from last month in the Indo outlining how supply is increasing but not in the right areas and not the right type of property. Demand is highest for apartments in urban areas and that's where the focus should be on building.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-housing-crisis-on-horizon-as-supply-comes-on-stream-in-wrong-areas-37666390.html

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 15-01-2019 2:52pm

Moonjet wrote: »

Interesting observations. I remember an article from last month in the Indo outlining how supply is increasing but not in the right areas and not the right type of property. Demand is highest for apartments in urban areas and that's where the focus should be on building.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-housing-crisis-on-horizon-as-supply-comes-on-stream-in-wrong-areas-37666390.html

Seems to tally with my observations. Makes sense too. In an ideal world I'd buy a three bed apartment in Dublin that's kid friendly. Apartments in Ireland are a bit of a roll of the dice unfortunately

the butcher · 16-01-2019 4:49pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0116/1023567-residential-property-prices/

Residential property prices nationally fell on a monthly basis by 0.5% in November, new Central Statistics Office figures reveal, while property prices increased by 7.1% nationally in the year to November.

Today's CSO figures show that residential property prices in Dublin rose by 5% in the year to November, with house prices rising by 4.6% and apartments by 6.5%.

The highest house price growth in Dublin was in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown at 6.8%, while the lowest growth was in Fingal at 3.9%.

Meanwhile, property prices outside of Dublin increased by 9.3% in the year to November - the first time the rate of growth has fallen below 10% since late 2016.

House prices outside of Dublin rose by 8.8% and apartments by 14.5% in November.

The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in property prices was the Mid-West with increases of 20.7%, while the smallest rise was recorded in the Border region at 6.1%.

the butcher · 16-01-2019 4:58pm

Moonjet wrote: »

Interesting observations. I remember an article from last month in the Indo outlining how supply is increasing but not in the right areas and not the right type of property. Demand is highest for apartments in urban areas and that's where the focus should be on building.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-housing-crisis-on-horizon-as-supply-comes-on-stream-in-wrong-areas-37666390.html

Apartments? Perhaps in the city centres. Properly sized 2/3/4 beds I would agree with. Not the shoeboxes they want to squeeze everyone into currently. I don't like the idea of going down this apartment route as the only option available to us plebs, even with building these ****ty apartment blocks outside the cities while the rich play grand designs elsewhere.

Pussyhands · 16-01-2019 6:00pm

the butcher wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0116/1023567-residential-property-prices/

It's begun.

Bluefoam · 16-01-2019 6:07pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

It's begun.

Holy ****e!!! Property prices rose massively, just not as massively as the previous short period of time!!! The market is about to implode, they won't be able to give 3 bed semis away soon!!!!

PANIC!!!!

Pussyhands · 16-01-2019 7:35pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Holy ****e!!! Property prices rose massively, just not as massively as the previous short period of time!!! The market is about to implode, they won't be able to give 3 bed semis away soon!!!!

PANIC!!!!

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2019-01-16/u-s-home-sales-plunged-in-december-price-growth-at-6-year-low?srnd=markets-vp

Hope you haven't bought at the near highs.

awec · 16-01-2019 7:54pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2019-01-16/u-s-home-sales-plunged-in-december-price-growth-at-6-year-low?srnd=markets-vp

Hope you haven't bought at the near highs.

Why?

Bluefoam · 16-01-2019 8:27pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Holy ****e!!! Property prices rose massively, just not as massively as the previous short period of time!!! The market is about to implode, they won't be able to give 3 bed semis away soon!!!!

PANIC!!!!

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2019-01-16/u-s-home-sales-plunged-in-december-price-growth-at-6-year-low?srnd=markets-vp

Hope you haven't bought at the near highs.

Yawn

bluelamp · 16-01-2019 8:29pm

Looking at the cso residential property index, prices fell both inside and outside Dublin for the first time since 2016 it looks like - although it's very slight.

myshirt · 16-01-2019 8:48pm

All the more reason for the State to lock in the prices now for property tax purposes. Of course we will see a fudge again though which will effectively be tax relief for the 45+'s and a tax increase for the 35's and less.

mkdon · 16-01-2019 9:35pm

I am a little confused here ... so in dublin the average house sold for 0.5% in november in comparison to october ? is that the figures you are referring to? when shall decembers and january's figures be available ?... they will be more telling and be able to draw a clearer picture...

Eric Cartman · 16-01-2019 9:38pm

I think this just says that we hit the credit wall. This is clearly the maximum pricing that society can take with credit controls involved. All the exemptions and other craic and this is how far we go.

Makes me think the credit cap should have been lower, but seems they set it exactly high enough for all the idiots from last time to get out of negative equity.

Graham · 16-01-2019 9:59pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Makes me think the credit cap should have been lower, but seems they set it exactly high enough for all the idiots from last time to get out of negative equity.

Don't mock, there's every chance they are on a tracker paying less than half the amount their neighbours are spending to rent an identical property.

Eric Cartman · 16-01-2019 11:27pm

Graham wrote: »

Don't mock, there's every chance they are on a tracker paying less than half the amount their neighbours are spending to rent an identical property.

very true, but the strategic defaulting, the upside down loans, the vacant properties etc... are causing problems for the rest of us from banks being allowed to lend to supply constraints. the same people who in late 07 / early 08 took out 102% mortgages at 5-8x sallary are the exact ones who have lobbied the banks and government to prevent reposessions and are clutching to their BTL's because they think property investment shouldnt go bad and wouldnt do the decent thing and walk away taking a 50-75k hit on a bad investment

Graham · 16-01-2019 11:44pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

very true, but the strategic defaulting, the upside down loans, the vacant properties etc... are causing problems for the rest of us from banks being allowed to lend to supply constraints. the same people who in late 07 / early 08 took out 102% mortgages at 5-8x sallary are the exact ones who have lobbied the banks and government to prevent reposessions and are clutching to their BTL's because they think property investment shouldnt go bad and wouldnt do the decent thing and walk away taking a 50-75k hit on a bad investment

You are of course making the huge and undoubtedly incorrect assumption that everyone in negative equity over-borrowed, isn't paying their mortgage and spends their spare time on protest marches lobbying the central bank/ government.

dor843088 · 16-01-2019 11:59pm

A surprising but true little nugget of info is the difference between a 300k mortgage on 1% (tracker) bought lets say 2007 and a 150k 3.5% mortgage bought right at the bottom in 2013 or so is around 40k over the 30 years all said and done. Factor in the 5 years of rent and it's pretty much negligible difference.

mkdon · 17-01-2019 12:09am

dor843088 wrote: »

A surprising but true little nugget of info is the difference between a 300k mortgage on 1% (tracker) bought lets say 2007 and a 150k 3.5% mortgage bought right at the bottom in 2013 or so is around 40k over the 30 years all said and done. Factor in the 5 years of rent and it's pretty much negligible difference.

the last few messages are miles off the actual threat topic of property in 2019. Can we stick to the programme here? There is little mention of brexit impact on 2019 property market or the global slowdown

interesting piece below:

https://dailyreckoning.com/revealed-when-recession-starts/

dor843088 · 17-01-2019 12:28am

mkdon wrote: »

the last few messages are miles off the actual threat topic of property in 2019. Can we stick to the programme here? There is little mention of brexit impact on 2019 property market or the global slowdown

interesting piece below:

https://dailyreckoning.com/revealed-when-recession-starts/

Not a problem boss. Here is a summary of the last 16 pages of predicting the 2019 property market and the effects of brexit on said market. NOBODY KNOWS. And whilst we're sticking to the programme how bout you leave the modding to the mods eh ?

Pussyhands · 17-01-2019 1:00am

I've had an eye on daft for about a year now.

I see the same overpriced houses still on there. The good houses that are good quality are going but the ones which are expensive but not maybe the neatest or in the best areas are staying put.

You just need to go back 12 years to see it's all repeating itself. I'm looking at an rte archive from 2007 and it's talking about a show "I'm an adult, get me out of here" - a show about young people living at home with parents help and them trying to find people a home to move into. Very similar to Brendan Courtneys show about finding a place to rent for people living with their folks.

https://web.archive.org/web/20070513042226/http://www.rte.ie:80/business/2007/0509/FED.html

Just look at what the fed were saying 12 years ago:

The FOMC repeated its concern about inflation, saying that 'core' price pressures excluding food and energy were 'somewhat elevated' but "seem likely to moderate over time."

The statement added that a key risk is that 'the high level of resource utilisation has the potential to sustain those pressures,' a reference to tight labor market conditions.

This is exactly what's happening now, we're at full employment, salaries are going up. This means more money, meaning higher prices of housing. Salaries can't go to infinity...but they can be driven far above what they should be. Then something will happen like Apple will fail to meet targets and they cut back 10,000 jobs, which has a knock on effect to subbies etc.

There will be something big this year or next regarding the economy. We don't know yet but there's lots to be concerned about.

Pussyhands · 17-01-2019 1:10am

Foreign direct investment from China into the United States plummeted by 83% in 2018. Not only are Chinese firms drastically scaling back investments, but they've embarked on a record-setting wave of sales of real estate, hospitality and entertainment businesses.

Another $12 billion of Chinese assets around the world are expected to be sold this year, the report said.

No doubt the chinese have their finger in the pie here too.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/14/investing/china-foreign-direct-investment/index.html

awec · 17-01-2019 9:45am

It's not all repeating itself. The situation now is entirely different to 2007. The reasons for Ireland property boom back then were entirely different.

If anything like 2007 happens again any time soon Ireland and the EU is finished. Someone's mortgage will be the least of their worries.

Property prices will come down eventually. It is inevitable. I doubt there is anyone in denial about this.

Pussyhands · 17-01-2019 9:46am

awec wrote: »

It's not all repeating itself. The situation now is entirely different to 2007. The reasons for Ireland property boom back then were entirely different.

If anything like 2007 happens again any time soon Ireland and the EU is finished. Someone's mortgage will be the least of their worries.

Property prices will come down eventually. It is inevitable. I doubt there is anyone in denial about this.

History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes.

Case in point, my above post about a TV programme about helping young people find a place to live in 2007 and last year. They weren't the exact same reasons, one was about getting someone onto the property ladder, the other finding a place to rent, both situations caused by availability of property - either to buy or rent.

awec · 17-01-2019 9:46am

Pussyhands wrote: »

History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes.

What does this even mean?

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 17-01-2019 9:46am

Pussyhands wrote: »

No doubt the chinese have their finger in the pie here too.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/14/investing/china-foreign-direct-investment/index.html

What has this got to do with the Irish property market?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-01-2019 9:48am

Pussyhands wrote: »

I've had an eye on daft for about a year now.

I see the same overpriced houses still on there. The good houses that are good quality are going but the ones which are expensive but not maybe the neatest or in the best areas are staying put.

You just need to go back 12 years to see it's all repeating itself. I'm looking at an rte archive from 2007 and it's talking about a show "I'm an adult, get me out of here" - a show about young people living at home with parents help and them trying to find people a home to move into. Very similar to Brendan Courtneys show about finding a place to rent for people living with their folks.

https://web.archive.org/web/20070513042226/http://www.rte.ie:80/business/2007/0509/FED.html

Just look at what the fed were saying 12 years ago:

This is exactly what's happening now, we're at full employment, salaries are going up. This means more money, meaning higher prices of housing. Salaries can't go to infinity...but they can be driven far above what they should be. Then something will happen like Apple will fail to meet targets and they cut back 10,000 jobs, which has a knock on effect to subbies etc.

There will be something big this year or next regarding the economy. We don't know yet but there's lots to be concerned about.

I agree with some of your points pussyhands but regards property here, it's a good thing when terrible or untidy properties aren't selling, it's a sign that there is a lack of desperation among property buyers right now.

Second have values have stagnated for the best part of two years in my area but new homes are up over 25% since 2015 (help to buy).

I reckon we will see signs of a recession but at present I don't think we have any. USA and maybe Italy / Germany will potentially be within one within 18 months.

Pussyhands · 17-01-2019 9:52am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I agree with some of your points pussyhands but regards property here, it's a good thing when terrible or untidy properties aren't selling, it's a sign that there is a lack of desperation among property buyers right now.

Exactly, but we're also building heavily now and there's going to be a raft of new properties on the market in the next few years.

Pussyhands · 17-01-2019 9:57am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

What has this got to do with the Irish property market?

Considering many many people claim that foreign investors are driving up prices here I think it's relevant.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 17-01-2019 10:24am

Pussyhands wrote: »

Considering many many people claim that foreign investors are driving up prices here I think it's relevant.

The article is to do with Chinese money leaving the US. Which is undoubtedly being directed from the top as part of the ongoing trade war. Really don't see the relevance to the Irish market

Bob24 · 17-01-2019 10:45am

Pussyhands wrote: »

History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes.

I have to summon Marx to answer this, who said that history always repeats itself, "the first as tragedy, then as farce”.

I actually think he had a point and we might be heading that way, but I have not idea what our property farce will be like and how many people will indeed find it funny.

The_Conductor · 17-01-2019 11:11am

I think its more a minor echo- thankfully, many people have been saved from themselves this time round- between CB income rules and the general exemptions. Also- while we may be building in atrocious locations- we don't have a runaway building sector- as we had the last time round. We are a silly silly people though.

coolshannagh28 · 17-01-2019 11:19am

The effect on our property market will be dictated by the severity of what happens in the US and Europe , the QE low interest bubble in both places could blow up spectacularly with unforeseen consequences.

Property Market 2019

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