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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2017-18
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Meteorite58 wrote: »18.55
Netweather
It kicked of just after 7o'clock here. Notice the bright echo over Oldcastle on the radar at 7.15.
Lovely loud cracks overhead, almost impossible to not get wet trying to record it though.
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foxy farmer wrote: »Just curious if anyone witnessed a fairly intense but short lightning storm (mostly sheet lightning) around 9.30 tonight around west cork. Four of us watched it for nearly 5 mins. We could hear very distant thunder but the sky was on fire with flashes 2 or 3a second. We didn't see any distinct lightning but the sky lighting up. Would be probably be west of Clonakilty. Nothing showing up on storm radar or blitzordnung.
No lightning showing up on any of the radars as you pointed out. Rain just skirting by the coast, very little overland but some big showers off the coast all right especially around 21.00 but the set up is not very conducive for lightning tonight. Fireworks from a festival or party perhaps ?
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Thinking there could be some sporadic thunderstorms sweeping down over the country Late Fri Night ,Early Sat Morning / Sat as the storm drags in cold air aloft over relatively warm SST's. Convergence , decent CAPE and Lapse Rates and good amounts of LLS DLS could assist in the formation of convective clouds possibly producing some thunderstorms.
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... Ireland and SW-UK ...
A gradually filling depression with a warm-core anomaly approaches Ireland during the night with a weakening gradient wind event along the S-periphery of the depression. Strong subsidence in the well mixed post frontal air mass should limit the overall chances for thunderstorm activity during the night, although some low-end chances exist over offshore areas (e.g. Celtic Sea). A severe wind gust risk accompanies convection, but in general the gradient wind risk should dominate. Hence no level area was issued for now.
At 03 UTC onwards the Irish Sea and W-UK may need some monitoring as dry air aloft overspreads a well mixed/moist BL air mass with slowly intensifying lift. We expanded the lightning area to the east and issued a small level 1 to account for enhanced downward transport of 25 m/s winds at 850 hPa (which may increase the general severe wind gust threat next to the gradient wind threat). Despite favorable kinematics, the tornado risk remains marginal at best due to very little CAPE.
Perhaps a few sferics around the S, SE, E coasts overnight or just inland ?
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A convective outlook for this Saturday as a trough traverses the country bringing very cold mid and upper temperatures aloft over relatively warm SST's.Plenty of scope for convection to produce hail and strong squally gusts. Most of the CAPE over the sea at this time of the year with little diurnal heating, Good lapse rates and decent DLS over land but will that be enough to produce sparks over land or will the pulse like cells fizzle out over the sea. I'm wondering given that there is plenty of wind from the NW that this might help some electrified convection produce some lightning activity along Atlantic coasts or maybe carry inland a bit?
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Just wondering could we get a few sparks overnight . Seems to have the parameters for convection as the trough passes over the relative warm SST's aided by cool uppers and some DLS to boot. A few sparks well off the W coast this evening. Or is there going to be too much mixing from the windy conditions to allow convection to form all the way to getting electrified ?
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Yea that is for sure . Enjoying keeping a focus on the set up's for potential and learning why convection formed and why it became electrified or not. Ireland only ever seems to be very borderline at best whether thunderstorms are going to form or not and usually of the pulse nature, of course we don't get the heat and humidity needed for the very big events but we do get some big storms from time to time the most recent I'm thinking of Donegal and the North of the country this August . Anyway the learning goes on .....Has to be one of the least thundery summer and autumn seasons in recent memory,
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Ongoing slight risk of thunder this evening.
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/934092899368734721
A few more sferics inland this afternoon, no doubt hail showers as well.
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Here's a livestream of the Mt Agung volcano erupting, with quite a nice Thunderstorm going on behind it at present.
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Over 500 kJ/kg SBCAPE generating that streamer off the Greystones coast right now (red dot). 850 temperature is -5 °C still the freezing level is at around 800 m amsl. It just shows how difficult it is to get snow with anything warmer than -8 or -9 °C 850 temps.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=islcMmfHHqE
This discussion has been closed.
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