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Dundalk Friday 15TH

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  • 15-03-2019 4:05am
    #1
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭


    Dundalk 15th .


    R1
    For me anyhow this is slightly above the normal for this grade and probable two to concentrate on on recent form are [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Danz Gift 1 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif](drawn 1) and Ty Rock Brandy 8 (drawn 8).[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Dans is normally held up for a run whereas ty rock is more versatile and can win with keane on board. ^. [/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]2[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Personally rarely back in claiming races as there inconsistent horses with extra problems than one can judge from their career. However . The will line up and solve the equation .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]The horse that catches my eye for sure is New Vocation 4.No world beater for sure [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]20lb wrong with the jolly. Ha .But my through a few bob on it as its not as bad as one thinks given the jollys record.[/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R3[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]This distance of race always confession. [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Either they go up in trip or drop back to the only alternate in dundalk which is a mile.The fastest time is Alhajjaj 1 .4 /1 seems fair.[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]But Ciao 9 has to be considered in any calcul .[/FONT]






    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R4[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]45-65 horses are rated thus and if there was a standout on performance I for sure cannot find it .[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Skip [/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R5[/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Brilliant race and for sure [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]tactician.[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]4 out of the 9 have not had a recent run !!!.[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif] [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Bring to the table the fit not necessary_the best horse normally wins these events thus my selection is the maiden Royal Court 5 and [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]its a record is excellent without getting the win from 5 attempts on the AW. But 100% place record and at the current odds of 6/1 well I for sure will take my chance.[/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R6[/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Some more 45-65 unlikeable types [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]and thrown in to just confuse matters 6 unexposed types.[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Top of the list of those for me is [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Flojo 13 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]But drawn 13 with its inexperience will probably run well .[/FONT]
    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Current Fav [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Latchet 6 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]has to be considered and then Binned (ha) .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]The race on the 25[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif] Jan is probably the best piece of form where Crest Of A Wave 3 and Very Smart 8 ran [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]where there were excuses for both failing next time .Its folly to accept that there is not more to offer but as stated this is tricky with a few other unexposed types. [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Q will I bet on this = Yes .Alot will depend on the market but for sure if slow boat Latchet 6 wins I will LOSE alot.[/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R7[/FONT]


    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Port Lions 9 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]comes with a 40%strike rate on the sand but has not ran for 295 days .Its record reads well all the same and trainer/Jock is 25%. However Gougane Barra 4 for me .[/FONT]




    [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]GL[/FONT]


«1

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    #2
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    The post Mortem= results

    R1
    Won

    R2
    non runner

    R3
    won

    R4
    Skip ( which was correct as no way to predict that)

    R5 lost and even my selection failed to repeat not my best analysis

    R6
    Won big here mainly because of the market.

    R7
    Lost.

    Over the 6 races well up and hope any readers of the tread are also.

    GL.


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    #3
    The Rooster
    Registered Users Posts: 4,442 ✭✭✭The Rooster


    Appreciate your analysis and selections, but not sure how a follower could be ‘well up’ from following your selections yesterday?

    From the 10 horses mentioned (excl the NR), you had 2 winners at 5/1 and 9/2. So 1 point on all 10 would leave someone a couple of points up, which is good, but not quite in the ‘well up’ range. So maybe I am misunderstanding your tips.

    For race 6, for example, none of the 3 you mentioned came in the Top 3, although you were bang on in dismissing the favourite. You said this was a ‘won big’ race, but I was down 3 points based on your tips. Clearly I misunderstood, so what did I do wrong?!


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    #4
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    got the game by the ambiguous descriptions


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    #5
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    To : the rooster

    If you are refering to the sp well correct .However and mark my words when I put them up they were a hell of alot bigger .

    You can check this out by going to Irishracing .com.

    It will give you the early prices but getting on is another matter.

    In ref to R6. I stated correctly that there were 6 unexposed types .In other words I could not quantify them correctly and played them against each other . Fore sure could have lost alot if slow boat Latchet won or the others did not improve but to keep it simple for most kept it to the 2 that were most likely for me but Iseebreeze had 5 prevoius runs .Some woeful and some good .If I had of mentioned every horse for most they would find it confusing. Thus my post and TRULY it takes alot of time to put it together in words .Then give it away.

    Next time if you are following watch the market as its essential for betting .
    Or just follow me early as I normally am ahead of it.

    GL


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    #6
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    https://www.irishracing.com/result?race=Dundalk_Fri_15th_Mar_2019_6_15&prc=087&prd=201903151815


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    #7
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    https://www.irishracing.com/result?race=Dundalk_Fri_15th_Mar_2019_5_15&prc=087&prd=201903151715


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    #8
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    Furthermore refer you to my post last week.

    Its there for all to see well in advance and something similar but got a big payout that week .

    Next week what would you THINK is likely to happen???????????

    One has to laugh. Ha.


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    #9
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Maybe put the price and make it clear what bet you are doing when you post? Might help avoid the confusion. The analysis before the race is a bit hard to follow but the conclusions post race seem to be very clear about what was bet and win/lose. Seems Ciao opened 4/1 on early prices and assume this was the price when posted on Friday at 3am and finished SP of 9/2.


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    #10
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    Ciao =
    Career 10%-50%-10
    AW (sand record)=20%-60%-5

    Alhajjaj
    Career 18%-27%-11
    AW =22%-33%-9

    Which one are you going to back. ??


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    #11
    MyStubbleItches
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭MyStubbleItches


    Going by the wording of the pre race analysis post of the Ciao race, one would presume that the chosen bet was Alhajjaj


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    #12
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    Maybe the next time I post why bother even reading !
    I will just put the money directly in to your account.

    Ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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    #13
    MyStubbleItches
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭MyStubbleItches


    Theonly way wrote: »
    Maybe the next time I post why bother even reading !
    I will just put the money directly in to your account.

    Ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    While that would be nice, I wouldn’t expect it of anyone. My point is, on reading the post, it seemed as if Alhajjaj was the chosen bet but afterwards you say that you had the winner. All I’m saying is that maybe you could state for definite which horse you’re actually backing.


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    #14
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Theonly way wrote: »
    Ciao =
    Career 10%-50%-10
    AW (sand record)=20%-60%-5

    Alhajjaj
    Career 18%-27%-11
    AW =22%-33%-9

    Which one are you going to back. ??


    Now I know the result I would definitely be backing Ciao too


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    #15
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    To: Mostly

    If people cannot understand that they for sure will lose .

    It could not be put more simple .

    To generate that data which is wins place and runs TAKES alot of skill .It is not available on the web and even after doing all that one still has to put a attachment I.e a figure so you can asses after the race .

    Thus my normal reply : the post Mortem. One has to (for me anyhow ) correctly quantify what happened because not unless you are a compulsive gambler one can win regular.


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    #16
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Generating data like number of runs vs number of wins and making a % figure is really advanced data generation and certainly not available on the web anywhere.

    Great to have you back Goat


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    #17
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    The Goat. Total spoofer ( no more bets till Christmas then posting and betting like a maniac on another site the next day and every day hahahahaha :) )


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    #18
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    Mind putting a 4ft6inch x 4ft6inch obstacle is ridiculous .

    Reminds me of cartoons as there is not alot of difference .It was pure greed what happened yesterday and who benefited ???
    One winner there .I for sure blame the jock as it was a high profile ride and it was well publicly disclosed to punters and racing fans who do not bet NH.
    For such an experienced horseman and given its position in the market I was shocked .
    For future reference .Horses being re shod at the gate in all counties their true chance is 40/1.


    Truly.


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    #19
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Theonly way wrote: »
    Mind putting a 4ft6inch x 4ft6inch obstacle is ridiculous .

    Reminds me of cartoons as there is not alot of difference .It was pure greed what happened yesterday and who benefited ???
    One winner there .I for sure blame the jock as it was a high profile ride and it was well publicly disclosed to punters and racing fans who do not bet NH.
    For such an experienced horseman and given its position in the market I was shocked .
    For future reference .Horses being re shod at the gate in all counties their true chance is 40/1.


    Truly.
    Please show your advanced data generation that was used to arrive at the figure of 40/1


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    #20
    tipptom
    Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    Nothing to do with the horse being re-shoed.


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    #21
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    I'm guessing Theonlyway is more of an expert on trolling than horses given the way that post got thrown in out of nowhere


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    #22
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Theonly way wrote: »
    Mind putting a 4ft6inch x 4ft6inch obstacle is ridiculous .

    Reminds me of cartoons as there is not alot of difference .It was pure greed what happened yesterday and who benefited ???
    One winner there .I for sure blame the jock as it was a high profile ride and it was well publicly disclosed to punters and racing fans who do not bet NH.
    For such an experienced horseman and given its position in the market I was shocked .
    For future reference .Horses being re shod at the gate in all counties their true chance is 40/1.


    Truly.

    True chances at 40/1 by the Shoe Shodding - Ansell !


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    #23
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    Name one please That was re shod at the gate or before the event .I can .But I can also fill you with 200 in a row who lost directly because it does upset the horse .

    Best practice is take the other shoe off or withdraw .Fact.

    If one was watching the farrier yesterday it was not correct .


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    #24
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    It cost a top class flat performer its life. For me It was a fkn disgrace.

    To get one of those horses in a lifetime is difficult .One has to be very lucky or numbers .To treat it like that in not on.


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    #25
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    As for the data re horses being re shod .Its available if you care to look.

    I could show you where but then why bother insulting you.


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    #26
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    State of this guy. 100% goat hahahahaha


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    #27
    Brock Turnpike
    Registered Users Posts: 3,744 ✭✭✭Brock Turnpike


    Theonly way wrote: »
    As for the data re horses being re shod .Its available if you care to look.

    I could show you where but then why bother insulting you.

    How are horses shod in the first place? Trying to get my head around why one would need to get re-shod.


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    #28
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    To Brock

    It was a concern and well reported in the media that there was an issue with its off fore.
    The reason given then that it was not a concern .Normally what happens is the farrier will use a glue to stick the shoe to the Hoof which works fine 90% of the time.This would have been discussed at a high level as it was alot of irish people banking on it to run well.On the way to the start the shoe came off.The jock only noticed it just before the the final check of the soresingle.(the safety strap that goes over the the saddle).The jock would have been aware of the previous problem yet gets the course farrier to nail the shoe back on.This cost a top class beautiful horse its life.Never mind the punters and was a disgrace.Personally dont back NH racing and really felt for all there not least J o brien because he was up in the stands and circumstances out of his control .He put his fate in the jock who fkd up big time.

    The horse is dead. Enough said.


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    #29
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    My fav bit is that apparently 1 in 200 horses win after being reshod at start but they are a genuine 40/1 shot to win after being reshod at the start. Strong grasp of the figures there.


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    #30
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    Obviously if a horse is 50/1 or bigger, the preference is to lose a shoe before the race as it actually improves their chance.
    Wtf? :D


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    #31
    Theonly way
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭Theonly way


    To: Mostly Harmless.

    The last one that one one after being re shod was 41 races ago.
    If you dont know how to collect and process DATA well try re_ education .

    Bye.


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